House Prices To Increase 1%

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...mp;in_page_id=8

[Realistbear]

The only way HPI is going to increase by that much is due to fewer, more expensive, properties selling. The bottom end of the market is dead in the water and the sheeple have got nothing left to stoke it anymore. BTL is no longer viable and they are trying to get out. Merv is out of control and anything he does will trigger something nasty.

Great Crash 2 is about to unwind here with the first big wave of mortgage resets coming up in September. Subprime is starting to collapse this side of the Atlantic with Kenisgnton Group going first and followed by others as the extent of the problem unfolds. The FSA warned the markets this morning that the problme is contagious and no one seriously believes the miracle ecnomy is exempt from the consequences of 10 years of debt accumulation without any production to pay for it.

1% appreciation in 6 months is 2% annualised. To the VIs that think the market is that strong: soft landinngs to you!

IMO, we will see the first "official admitted" YoY negatives begin this winter.

[AwaitingFairPrices]

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...mp;in_page_id=8

With Halifax just announcing they expect an increase in HPI, see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6906005.stm, it's only getting harder to get a consensus view on what's really going to happen. Seems like we get this HPI reports now, in between MPC meetings, and then come the start of the month the press releases from the Banks suddenly become less bullish!!

AFP

[cockrobin]

The only way HPI is going to increase by that much is due to fewer, more expensive, properties selling. The bottom end of the market is dead in the water and the sheeple have got nothing left to stoke it anymore. BTL is no longer viable and they are trying to get out. Merv is out of control and anything he does will trigger something nasty.

Great Crash 2 is about to unwind here with the first big wave of mortgage resets coming up in September. Subprime is starting to collapse this side of the Atlantic with Kenisgnton Group going first and followed by others as the extent of the problem unfolds. The FSA warned the markets this morning that the problme is contagious and no one seriously believes the miracle ecnomy is exempt from the consequences of 10 years of debt accumulation without any production to pay for it.

1% appreciation in 6 months is 2% annualised. To the VIs that think the market is that strong: soft landinngs to you!

IMO, we will see the first "official admitted" YoY negatives begin this winter.

When will I be able to mortgage a house 3.5x my annual salary?

[notthereyet]

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...mp;in_page_id=8

They can always revise there HPI growth down again.

[Realistbear]

They can always revise there HPI growth down again.

This much is true. I suppose 1% "growth" over 6 months is not that good anyway, especially after real inflation at around 6% and the fact that you can get 6% on a savings account (which always gives you about the rate of actual inflation--neutral "growth"). But lets not dwell on wildly optimistic VI reports. Let's get on with business and start to look for some declines that will live up to the name "Great Crash 2".

[azogar]

Interestingly, ROI was 1% for the last 6 months 2006, now it's neg

[wotnocrash]

When will I be able to mortgage a house 3.5x my annual salary?

When you vastly increase your annual salary.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

House Prices To Increase 1%, between now and Dec

Does that include all the properties which have seen serious flooding problems up North, and today those in West and South West London stretching out to sunny Berkshire, the stomping ground of whoops_apocalypse.

[Bearfacts]

At least the Mail had bothered to do the sums showing that the Halifax are expecting 1% inflation between now and December i.e a fall in real terms. The rest of the media had this pinned as yet another 'House Prices Rocket' story. Even had a colleague say to me today I see the Halifax have just said house prices have jumped another 2% last month ! The masses really are asses.

[bryanh]

When you vastly increase your annual salary.

Or when average house prices drop by 50%

[wotnocrash]

Or when average house prices drop by 50%

Increasing salary is more likely and more importantly, to a certain degree within his control.

[wotnocrash]

At least the Mail had bothered to do the sums showing that the Halifax are expecting 1% inflation between now and December i.e a fall in real terms. The rest of the media had this pinned as yet another 'House Prices Rocket' story. Even had a colleague say to me today I see the Halifax have just said house prices have jumped another 2% last month ! The masses really are asses.

More likely the halifax are expecting rises of nearer 10% but don't want to stoke the interest rate rises further. You only have to look back at the history of HPI predictions from haliwide over the past few years to see that they have consistently underestimated HPI

[Justice]

1% you say

well thats a lot less than the interest being chaged between now and december that it will cost them to keep such high profit margins

[DoctorJ]

Mortgage lending figures released today showed record borrowing of £34.2bn in June , but the Council of Mortgage Lenders said much of this was driven by those seeking to remortgage after fixed rate deals ran out.

This bit was interesting. I'll have to think about the implications of this

[Guest vicmac64]

The only way HPI is going to increase by that much is due to fewer, more expensive, properties selling. The bottom end of the market is dead in the water and the sheeple have got nothing left to stoke it anymore. BTL is no longer viable and they are trying to get out. Merv is out of control and anything he does will trigger something nasty.

Great Crash 2 is about to unwind here with the first big wave of mortgage resets coming up in September. Subprime is starting to collapse this side of the Atlantic with Kenisgnton Group going first and followed by others as the extent of the problem unfolds. The FSA warned the markets this morning that the problme is contagious and no one seriously believes the miracle ecnomy is exempt from the consequences of 10 years of debt accumulation without any production to pay for it.

1% appreciation in 6 months is 2% annualised. To the VIs that think the market is that strong: soft landinngs to you!

IMO, we will see the first "official admitted" YoY negatives begin this winter.

You have it 100% - its going down the pan this time.

[nohpc]

When will I be able to mortgage a house 3.5x my annual salary?

When rates are more than 9%

[notthereyet]

The only way HPI is going to increase by that much is due to fewer, more expensive, properties selling. The bottom end of the market is dead in the water and the sheeple have got nothing left to stoke it anymore. BTL is no longer viable and they are trying to get out. Merv is out of control and anything he does will trigger something nasty.

Great Crash 2 is about to unwind here with the first big wave of mortgage resets coming up in September. Subprime is starting to collapse this side of the Atlantic with Kenisgnton Group going first and followed by others as the extent of the problem unfolds. The FSA warned the markets this morning that the problme is contagious and no one seriously believes the miracle ecnomy is exempt from the consequences of 10 years of debt accumulation without any production to pay for it.

1% appreciation in 6 months is 2% annualised. To the VIs that think the market is that strong: soft landinngs to you!

IMO, we will

see the first "official admitted" YoY negatives begin this winter.

I think between now and december will be a rollercoaster and HPI will be up and down lets see what the annual growth is in December?

.

[bazzzzzzz]

Let's get on with business and start to look for some declines that will live up to the name "Great Crash 2".

Yes.

Let's .

But where are these declines? You've said over the past two years your area's been 'crashing'.

West Mids up 3.4 and as for Warwickshire, 8.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

[sign_of_the_times]

Mortgage lending figures released today showed record borrowing of £34.2bn in June , but the Council of Mortgage Lenders said much of this was driven by those seeking to remortgage after fixed rate deals ran out.

well yes it would be up with lots of people remortgaging at 1 - 2% higher interest rates !

wonder how much was for new purchases? not a lot by he sound of this report

[Guest AuntJess]

Increasing salary is more likely and more importantly, to a certain degree within his control.

You are aptly named. How on earth does ANYone double their salary in a short space of time?...Do tell.

[Realistbear]

Yes.

Let's .

But where are these declines? You've said over the past two years your area's been 'crashing'.

West Mids up 3.4 and as for Warwickshire, 8.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

You are entitled to your bullish views but there is always the bearish point of view to take into consideration:

West Midlands Counties

Select figures for:

All Detached Flat Semi Terraced

ALL PROPERTIES - SORT BY:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Herefordshire £215,591 0.2% 3.3% 697

Shropshire £202,704 1% 9.8% 1016

Worcestershire £201,359 -2.3% 8.9% 2333

Warwickshire £200,075 -4.1% 8.2% 2419

Staffordshire £170,380 -1.9% 5.7% 3174

West Midlands £151,869 -2.9% 3.4% 9616

Wrekin £148,342 -0.4% 5.3% 631

Stoke-On-Trent £95,362 -4.7% 6.1% 1219

For my county its a little better:

West Midlands Counties

Warwickshire Local Authorities

Select figures for:

All Detached Flat Semi Terraced

ALL PROPERTIES - SORT BY:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon £253,009 -6.0% 5.2% 528

Warwick £227,990 -6.8% 7.5% 776

North Warwickshire £182,849 7.3% 12.5% 256

Rugby £177,311 -5.8% 6.6% 549

Nuneaton And Bedworth

Sources:

England and Wales

Land Registry of England and Wales. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales. Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2007.

[crashmonitor]

I think most HPC members were on to the 1% second half growth within a few seconds of the release.I certainly was and mentioned it immediately on various other threads.Unfortunately the British public are so innumerate that they the think the Haliwide double digit growth is happening now ,not that it is a historical record of what has happened.

[Realistbear]

Yes.

Let's .

But where are these declines? You've said over the past two years your area's been 'crashing'.

West Mids up 3.4 and as for Warwickshire, 8.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

The sexed up* LR report is a little more optimistic for my area:

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ts/hpir0607.pdf

Date of release: 28 June 2007

West Midlands up 0.2% in May up 5.0 Yoy

Warwickshire up 0.4% in May up 5.9 YoY

I think your data errs too much on the bullish side but you are entitled to your opinions. What do the Neithers say?

Interesting comments in the Times to suggest that your bullishness may be overstated, at least for my area:

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle2108943.ece

However some regions saw modest falls during the

second quarter

of the year, with prices

dropping

by 2.8 per cent in Wales,

1.1 per cent

in the West Midlands

and 0.4 per cent in the South West.

Let's see, down 1.1% in a quarter suggests it may be 4.4% down YoY quite soon if the current rate of drop continues. With +6% on savings it doesn't make a lot of sense to buy these days.

I must say, the more reports I see the more your figures look like they may have come from a bullish VI? Are you really a bull yourself?

_____________

* The sexed up data includes, remarkably, so called "like for like" sales where the same property changes hands. As well all know, flipping after improving a property has bveen the national past time for most of the miracle years. Thus a 150k dump is sold to Nigel and Timothy who spend 100k on it and sell for 260k. The LR pick this up as a huge increase in value of 110k whereas the reality is quite different.

Edited July 21, 2007 by Realistbear

[Converted Lurker]

just 1%? Less than 0.2% per month over the next 6 months would be quite dramatic slowdown, would that not reverse HPI from approx. 10% (YoY measured in Dec. 2007) to 5%?