Mortgage Approvals Plummet

[Oxfordite]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4215223.stm

[Oxfordite]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4215223.stm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Can these figures be added to a graph somebody drew up not so long ago for the last decade or so?

[Bear Goggles]

Ed Stansfield of Capital Economics, a well-known market doomster, said: "Nationwide has suggested that a soft landing is on track, but it's still too early to draw that conclusion."

How's about that for impartial reporting!

Once again I ask the question - what's doomsterish (if that's a word) about affordable housing? :angry:

[Oxfordite]

40,000 approvals will send this line right of the chart at levels never seen before. Am I missing something, this appears to be very significant.

[Casual Observer]

40,000 approvals will send this line right of the chart at levels never seen before. Am I missing something, this appears to be very significant.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is indeed very significant. Supply v Demand and all that. I think these figures will translate into far lower prices by the end of the year.

[Guest muttley]

Maybe more people are buying their homes for cash!!!

Do these figures include MEWing?

[munimula]

40,000 approvals will send this line right of the chart at levels never seen before. Am I missing something, this appears to be very significant.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The two graphs are not the same, the figures are different.

Can anyone explain? Perhaps the first is mortgages pre-approved and the second (today's) is mortgages actually taken up?

[Bear Goggles]

40,000 approvals will send this line right of the chart at levels never seen before. Am I missing something, this appears to be very significant.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dynamite! This is the most telling stat yet, according to this graph mortgage approvals are lower than they were at their lowest point during the last crash. (40,201)

We have assumed the crash position

[market watcher]

The two graphs are not the same, the figures are different.

Can anyone explain? Perhaps the first is mortgages pre-approved and the second (today's) is mortgages actually taken up?

The BBA figures are just part of the approvals - but a large part. In November, BBA was 47,095 of the 77,000 approvals so I'm expecting total approvals of about 65,700 for December. Good news.

[zzg113]

I'm expecting total approvals of about 65,700 for December.

If it does come in at 65,700 I believe I am right in saying that this is even lower than the lowest point of the last crash. Even in the very depths of the last housing market crash monthly average mortgage approvals NEVER fell below 73,000. Looks like the falls are going to be bigger this time, just as the rises have been bigger.

[Oxfordite]

The two graphs are not the same, the figures are different.

Can anyone explain? Perhaps the first is mortgages pre-approved and the second (today's) is mortgages actually taken up?

The BBA figures are just part of the approvals - but a large part. In November, BBA was 47,095 of the 77,000 approvals so I'm expecting total approvals of about 65,700 for December. Good news.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you're right and by extrapolation get 65,700, which appear to be the lowest since 1986. People getting mortgage approvals in december buy in February or March, so no spring bounce.

[Timmy Manson]

40,000 approvals will send this line right of the chart at levels never seen before. Am I missing something, this appears to be very significant.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Notable that in very single case in this chart the decline in mortgage appprovals leads the fall in prices.

Now I know that a 5 year od child could spot that relationship, but it seems to have escaped the notice of 95% of the UK population, let alone evil aunt Beeb

[patientFTB]

hi

Know this may be tricky to answer but is there a way to extrapolate a X% fall in house prices from a Y% fall in mortgage approvals?

ie

a 38% drop in mortgage approvals would correlate to a approx 38% drop in prices?

Does anyone have the stats from the crash of 89-95 etc?

much obliged

[patientFTB]

"Mortgage lending fell to its lowest level in almost a decade in November and is dropping faster than during the housing market crash of the early 90s, official figures showed yesterday, pointing to further house price falls this year.

The Bank of England reported that only 77,000 new mortgages were approved in November, down from 85,000 in October and the lowest since September 1995. That represented a 43% drop from November 2003's figure of 134,000 - worse than any fall seen in the early-90s."

[delite1]

"Mortgage lending fell to its lowest level in almost a decade in November and is dropping faster than during the housing market crash of the early 90s, official figures showed yesterday, pointing to further house price falls this year.

The Bank of England reported that only 77,000 new mortgages were approved in November, down from 85,000 in October and the lowest since September 1995. That represented a 43% drop from November 2003's figure of 134,000 - worse than any fall seen in the early-90s."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Patient,

Where is that quote from?

Thanks

[zzg113]

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st...1383383,00.html

[Realistbear]

"Mortage applications tank..."

This is not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning.

It is happening because:

Never in the field of human greed has so much been owed by so many to so few.

[Realistbear]

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st...1383383,00.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One the one hand:

On the other:

The Ghost of 1929 hovers.

[Oxfordite]

"Mortage applications tank..."

This is not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning.

It is happening because:

Never in the field of human greed has so much been owed by so many to so few.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We will buy them on the beaches, we will buy them in the streets, we will buy them in the hills, we will NEVER sell. Just wait till early summer.

[yogibear]

Remember the old saying about being careful what you wish for?

The lending figures are frighteningly bad. Nasty credit crunch coming for the UK consumer. UK plc has been living on borrowed time for the last few years (apologies for the appalling pun) and it looks like its pay back time. Recession?

[Realistbear]

Remember the old saying about being careful what you wish for?

The lending figures are frighteningly bad.  Nasty credit crunch coming for the UK consumer.  UK plc has been living on borrowed time for the last few years (apologies for the appalling pun) and it looks like its pay back time.  Recession?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Al Greenspan has been planning a recession for some months because he knows that continued borrowing at irrationaly exuberant levels will bring back monster inflation. The way I read Al is that he will sacrifice bubble markets (the UK get dragged in also due to globalization and currency ties) for the greater good. He was caught off the record in Europe as saying something to the effect that people who persist in the housing bubble deserve to lose money. George is safely in the White House so the recession can now begin. Tony needs to get a move on and call the election in March as May will be too late. I think this next HPC will hit hard and fast--no bubble the size of this current one could ever fizzle--it is going to pop.

[Realistbear]

Here is a good article from Yale U. on "irrational exuberance" in the housing market. It should come to be known in the annals of house crash history as "Shiller's Chiller."

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estat..._0502/index.htm

Bottom line: Regional housing booms aren't uncommon, but what's going on today is different -- and dangerous.

Shiller and Al Greenbubbles are close associates--this man is not just another "opinion"--he is a market mover.

[Van]

The two graphs are not the same, the figures are different.

Can anyone explain? Perhaps the first is mortgages pre-approved and the second (today's) is mortgages actually taken up?

The BBA figures are just part of the approvals - but a large part. In November, BBA was 47,095 of the 77,000 approvals so I'm expecting total approvals of about 65,700 for December. Good news.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good extrapolation. 65,700 or anywhere near this would be spectacularly bad. Did someone say lowest number of approvals since 1986? EAs must be starvin' marvins. Next fortnight is going to be potentially excellent: BoE mortgage lending and LR Q4 results.

Meanwhile, the CWD shareprice just won't drop...

[George]

Greed is the mother of all sins. I expect nothing less than 50% to be chopped off current prices. Watch the number of new mortgages fall off the cliff and property to do the same.

[Marina]

We have assumed the crash position 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am worried that bent over with my head between my knees an Estate Agent might attempt an act of sodomy with one of his colleagues taking the pictures to then blackmail me into buying a house.