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Why There Will Never Be A Hpc - Ever


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I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk.

If you want to prop up the market with posts, a good starting point would be to check your spelling of simple words, just a few were: Gorden for Gordon, miss-guided for misguided, their for there.

Always good to read counter-arguments though, that's what a forum's all about, where we all learn/discuss/share ;)

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Your friend cannot benefit from taking out so much debt - why is he doing it?

Because thats how much starter homes cost, driven up by "excess demand from single person households", and he earns 2x national average salary. Are you suggesting that he cannot affod a starter home near london?

3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing. If on the other hand some tells you they are a professor of demographic studies with the backing of a University behind them and undertake modeling work on a regular basis to inform housing supply debates at Examinations in Public, then they will know plenty about the complexity of housing need and supply. I am not one of these people, but i do employ them to try a convince the Government to increase the supply of housing.

Ahhh, the good old Appeal to Authority. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_authority for those that like their references). In Philosophy 101 we were taught to be pretty sceptical of this line of argument. Applies to the EcoMissionaries as well...

Edited by RichB
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In simple terms, the market will not crash because there is an insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need

Your whole argument is about supply and demand. I wonder how old you are? Under 35 I would bet. Maybe quite a bit under.

Explain something to me.

In the last crash which took place between 1989 and 1992 and which dribbled on until about 1998 (until house prices reached their pre-crash level) building of new property in London and the South East (the most heavily affected area) virtually stopped.

I worked for a property developer at the time. New house building came to standstill in my area. I could show you blocks of flats and houses that had the ground floor slab put on and were then abandoned for 4 or 5 years. In many cases the builders went broke and it took years for the banks to offload the sites/buildings - at a loss - for another builder to finish them.

In case you think I am making this up - think about the massive increase in unemployment at the time - most of them were building workers. Hundreds of thousands left the industry never to return.

Yet, despite a massively constricted supply, despite the fact the only people who moved house were people who HAD to move house - still prices continued to FALL.

Bit of a conundrum eh? Well, not really. What it shows is that the housing market is driven by demand - not supply and demand. Demand is always there - most people want to live in a nicer house than the one they are in. But making the move, taking on more debt etc - is a decision driven by sentiment about the future and affordability - not supply and demand.

You can wrap yourself in your cosy supply and demand blanket if you wish. If you do, you'll make some very bad judgement calls.

Edited by Lets' get it right
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I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk. This web site has been established for years now and still you are no closer to realising your goal - a HPC. Just perhaps, this housing market may be a little more complex than you all think and maybe, just maybe, your assumptions about a crash are miss-guided.

So why won't the housing market crash?

In simple terms, the market will not crash because there is an insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need. The demand for housing will fluctuate up and down and will impact on price. If the demand for housing is reduced, by say interest rate rises, then house prices may fall (as i'm sure they do in the future). Housing supply and housing need are very very complex areas which use computer modeling to try to estimate.

If anyone tells you their is no housing supply problem because 1) they looked on Rightmove and theres load of houses 2) there are loads of flats which are vacant in my area - therefore loads of housing 3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing. If on the other hand some tells you they are a professor of demographic studies with the backing of a University behind them and undertake modeling work on a regular basis to inform housing supply debates at Examinations in Public, then they will know plenty about the complexity of housing need and supply. I am not one of these people, but i do employ them to try a convince the Government to increase the supply of housing.

The failure of the planning system - for the last 30 years

The amount of housing which is built is determined by the planning system, which is Plan led. Although a complex process in itself i can simplify it by saying that the level of housing need is debated and the Panel of inspectors will give their final report which is then adopted. The key points you need to know are:

a) determining housing need is a complex area with a number of factors from immigration, birth rates, average household size etc etc

B) Local authorities are against providing housing because it is not popular with local voters - who can keep them in power

c) the models used have always tended to under-estimated demand

d) the projections are made over 15 to 20 year timescales which cannot foresee future changes in government policy - eg UK opening up the boarders to other EU states; so no housing is provided for them

e) this failure of the system has been going on for about 30 years

When the government makes statements about an under-supply of housing it is this very complex area they are referring too; NOT the amount of properties for sale on 'rightmove'.

So why won't a House Price Crash happen?

Expecting a 20% fall of prices next year so you can buy a house? Sorry, its unlikely to happen. Because their has been such an under supply of housing their are countless people wanting to do the same thing. In fact so many people want a house price crash to happen so they can buy a house that they they go to housepricecrash.co.uk to try a convince themselve that it will. Another example of the under supply are the thousands of families waiting to be housed in Council housing in each local authority area; families in bedsits, the homeless, FTB's in rented accomodation, children still living at home - the list goes on and on and on - and its the reason that there will not be a house price crash. Its simple supply and demand!

What about the evidence for this under supply?

Government policy is changing with Gorden B proposing to develop more housing. This change in policy was in part brought on by a Treasury backed report by Kate Barker which examined the problem. you can find it at

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/consultation...arker_index.cfm

In simple terms it identifies the problem of housing under supply and the only way to resolve it by building more houses

Before this there was a white paper from 1996 called something like "where shall we live - the problem of housing need in 2016. This predicted that we shall need a further 3 millions homes by 2016.

But what about all this extra housing which GB has told you about?

Too little, too late really. The figure which he is providing will are only a fraction what we need to produce as an absolute minium. There are also serious concerns about delivery particully as as a new planning system has been put in place to speed up the entire planning system which happening the opposite effect.

what about the other factors of HPI such as the ease of credit

Yeah, your right, its not only the under supply of housing which has fueled HPI but also other factors such as the ease of credit, low interest rates etc etc. you've all debated them for years and they have all contributed BUT its all been underpinned by the lack of supply.

But prices seem to be easing off, interest rates are going higher the US housing market is in a right state and house price are not affordable

Its likely that these factors may lower house prices but its unlikely it will cause a crash. As soon as prices become affordable all the people who have struggled to get on the market will do so, increasing demand and therefore prices. On this affordabily issue remember their is plenty of money in the economy and securing a mortgage is still easy. I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

In a nut shell

1) massive under supply of housing over the last 30 years

2) This has underpinned recent HPI

3) Unable to build the houses needed to balance out the demand for housing

4) a 'crash' is unlikely to occur because any lowering of prices will make house purchasing more affordable which will increase demand and prices.

Just a few notes

A 'crash' in the market is not house prices weakening in a few parts of the country but more about huge loses of say 20 to 30% in a short period of time of say 6 months to a year

You may be impressed by some members and how they partry their argument across but if they've been a member for any amount of time, it means they have also predicting a crash for ages, which hasn't happened.

Im not saying the market won't go down slight - im sure it will. What im saying is that there won't be a crash

Know body can predict the future

If the following events occur we can expect a massive crash:

1, interest rates keep rising (very likely)

2. A recession (also very possible)

3. A credit squeeze (very likely, US banks are now getting twitchy about lending as they are finding it more difficult to pass on the risk, this will contagious)

4. An upward lift in the price of energy (causing the before mentioned recession, this is just about inevitable, either quickly or over a couple of years, Quickly if we have war with Iran, slowly due to world wide increasing demand, various structural bottlnecks and the big bad one 'Depletion'

5. If a couple of the above events happen, and they will at more or less the same time, then it will create massive selling pressure, at which time lots of BTL landlords will begin selling and that stock of 700,000 empty dwellings might well come on the market in a hurry.

The chance of the above not happening is approximatly zero. Oh and as for that shortage of housing, it didnt stop the value of Japansese property falling by half in nominal terms (more in real terms) over a 17 year period, half way through that you had a new generation of Japanese who realy belived the motto 'Remember property only ever goes down in price' and their housing market was much tighter than ours in 1990

Edited by steve99
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Guest Cletus VanDamme

To be fair to the OP he makes the distinction, although not very clearly, between property and housing.

It is patently obvious that there is not a shortage of property in this country. But the issue is that, for those in housing need, it is not available, for these reasons

1/ cost

2/ discrimination ('professionals only', 'no kids, no pets' etc)

3/ hoarding - the 'buy to leave' and holiday homes phenomenon

The government needs to tackle these with legislation, not with building yet more flats.

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Dgl1001 on Housing Supply:

If anyone tells you their is no housing supply problem because 1) they looked on Rightmove and theres load of houses 2) there are loads of flats which are vacant in my area - therefore loads of housing 3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing.

Dgl1001 on Affordability:

On this affordabily issue remember their is plenty of money in the economy and securing a mortgage is still easy. I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

Does this mean that, in your own words, you "know nothing"? Or are small scale anecdotal observations gospel for the Affordability argument, but worthless on the Supply argument?

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If the following events occur we can expect a massive crash:

1, interest rates keep rising (very likely)

2. A recession (also very possible)

3. A credit squeeze (very likely, US banks are now getting twitchy about lending as they are finding it more difficult to pass on the risk, this will contagious)

4. An upward lift in the price of energy (causing the before mentioned recession, this is just about inevitable, either quickly or over a couple of years, Quickly if we have war with Iran, slowly due to world wide increasing demand, various structural bottlnecks and the big bad one 'Depletion'

5. If a couple of the above events happen, and they will at more or less the same time, then it will create massive selling pressure, at which time lots of BTL landlords will begin selling and that stock of 700,000 empty dwellings might well come on the market in a hurry.

The chance of the above not happening is approximatly zero. Oh and as for that shortage of housing, it didnt stop the value of Japansese property falling by half in nominal terms (more in real terms) over a 17 year period, half way through that you had a new generation of Japanese who realy belived the motto 'Remember property only ever goes down in price' and their housing market was much tighter than ours in 1990

Bring it on!!

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Guest The_Oldie
To be fair to the OP he makes the distinction, although not very clearly, between property and housing.

It is patently obvious that there is not a shortage of property in this country. But the issue is that, for those in housing need, it is not available, for these reasons

1/ cost

2/ discrimination ('professionals only', 'no kids, no pets' etc)

3/ hoarding - the 'buy to leave' and holiday homes phenomenon

The government needs to tackle these with legislation, not with building yet more flats.

I think market forces will take care of affordability issues and hoarding ;).

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On this affordabily issue remember their is plenty of money in the economy and securing a mortgage is still easy. I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

I had a few friends who bought with mates just before the last HPC.

Burnt fingers everywhere. IIRC they ended up having to sell in the depths.

I wouldn't advise that because the people living together are going to be in different situations over time. It's like a flatshare that you can't get out of. One may want to sell, the other can't afford to sell because they can't cover the Negative Equity. One will be earning more money than the other, one might even have lost their job and in that situation is the other one going to bail them out?

It's not like a proper couple because there is no common purpose or sharing. Bad Bad idea, and a sign of how desperate people get when they are driven by that kind of fear.

Of course, it's different this time...

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Your whole argument is about supply and demand. I wonder how old you are? Under 35 I would bet. Maybe quite a bit under.

Explain something to me.

In the last crash which took place between 1989 and 1992 and which dribbled on until about 1998 (until house prices reached their pre-crash level) building of new property in London and the South East (the most heavily affected area) virtually stopped.

I worked for a property developer at the time. New house building came to standstill in my area. I could show you blocks of flats and houses that had the ground floor slab put on and were then abandoned for 4 or 5 years. In many cases the builders went broke and it took years for the banks to offload the sites/buildings - at a loss - for another builder to finish them.

In case you think I am making this up - think about the massive increase in unemployment at the time - most of them were building workers. Hundreds of thousands left the industry never to return.

Yet, despite a massively constricted supply, despite the fact the only people who moved house were people who HAD to move house - still prices continued to FALL.

Bit of a conundrum eh? Well, not really. What it shows is that the housing market is driven by demand - not supply and demand. Demand is always there - most people want to live in a nicer house than the one they are in. But making the move, taking on more debt etc - is a decision driven by sentiment about the future and affordability - not supply and demand.

You can wrap yourself in your cosy supply and demand blanket if you wish. If you do, you'll make some very bad judgement calls.

Well stated, any survivor from the last crash will state that in 1988 there was not a sniff that house prices would crash and that we would go into recession and if you mentioned house prices would crash in London then you would have been burnt at the stake, the rest is history of course Its Different This Time . You have to remember then that we classed 8%- 9% as low interest rates.

1972 - 1990 - 2008

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Guest The_Oldie
Well stated, any survivor from the last crash will state that in 1988 there was not a sniff that house prices would crash and that we would go into recession and if you mentioned house prices would crash in London then you would have been burnt at the stake, the rest is history of course Its Different This Time . You have to remember then that we classed 8%- 9% as low interest rates.

1972 - 1990 - 2008

Yes, we did, but the capital sums were a third of what they are now.

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In simple terms, the market will not crash because there is an insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need. The demand for housing will fluctuate up and down and will impact on price. If the demand for housing is reduced, by say interest rate rises, then house prices may fall (as i'm sure they do in the future). Housing supply and housing need are very very complex areas which use computer modeling to try to estimate.

If anyone tells you their is no housing supply problem because 1) they looked on Rightmove and theres load of houses 2) there are loads of flats which are vacant in my area - therefore loads of housing 3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing.

I think, frankly, you know nothing. There are more than enough houses on sale and some have been on the market for months if not years. Don't bother with Rightmove just check your local property pages and come back here to tell us whether there are enough houses on the market or not. VI can't use 'low' interest rates lie now as it has gone up by 64% since 2003 instead they have to use 'insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need' lie to fuel HPI.

There are more than enough houses for everyone, the only problem is house prices are detached from 'reality' for all known reasons.

I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

You clearly don't understand what is sustainable what is not. The fact that lots of people are having to buy together clearly confirms that today's house prices are not sustainable and will crash

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

In my popular and desirable area.

Late 1989 house sold for £120k

Mid 1990 another house still sold for £120k

February 1991 repossession sold at auction for £88k as Lender panicked.

October 1991 neighbour`s Daughter and Son in Law as FTBs bought for £88.5k. :)

Followed by a further 2 repossessions in late 91 and mid 92.

10 years passed before properties in the area regained their 89/90 selling prices. The reason I have never looked upon my property as a pension but a place to rest, put on my slippers, and enjoy a tipple. ;)

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How interesting. In the five pages of this topic, I haven't seen a single response from dg1001 in the last three. Come on dg1001! You stated that you wanted to present the bull argument but now you seem unwilling to debate it further. Surely you don't think you're beaten..?! :ph34r:

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In my popular and desirable area.

Late 1989 house sold for £120k

Mid 1990 another house still sold for £120k

February 1991 repossession sold at auction for £88k as Lender panicked.

October 1991 neighbour`s Daughter and Son in Law as FTBs bought for £88.5k. :)

Followed by a further 2 repossessions in late 91 and mid 92.

10 years passed before properties in the area regained their 89/90 selling prices. The reason I have never looked upon my property as a pension but a place to rest, put on my slippers, and enjoy a tipple. ;)

I think you should re-think whether your area is really "popular and desirable".

I bought in May 1991 (a new build 1 bed flat!). £80K. Good location in Ealing.

Sold in Sept 2002 £200K.

Flats in the block (only 10 in total) were selling regularly through the nineties - no one struggled to sell. Can't remember any asking price being lower than the original buying prices.

IMO there is a definite shortage of decent property. Most of the time demand exceeds supply. So as a medium or long term statement the OP is correct.

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I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk. This web site has been established for years now and still you are no closer to realising your goal - a HPC. Just perhaps, this housing market may be a little more complex than you all think and maybe, just maybe, your assumptions about a crash are miss-guided.

So why won't the housing market crash?

In simple terms, the market will not crash because there is an insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need. The demand for housing will fluctuate up and down and will impact on price. If the demand for housing is reduced, by say interest rate rises, then house prices may fall (as i'm sure they do in the future). Housing supply and housing need are very very complex areas which use computer modeling to try to estimate.

If anyone tells you their is no housing supply problem because 1) they looked on Rightmove and theres load of houses 2) there are loads of flats which are vacant in my area - therefore loads of housing 3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing. If on the other hand some tells you they are a professor of demographic studies with the backing of a University behind them and undertake modeling work on a regular basis to inform housing supply debates at Examinations in Public, then they will know plenty about the complexity of housing need and supply. I am not one of these people, but i do employ them to try a convince the Government to increase the supply of housing.

The failure of the planning system - for the last 30 years

The amount of housing which is built is determined by the planning system, which is Plan led. Although a complex process in itself i can simplify it by saying that the level of housing need is debated and the Panel of inspectors will give their final report which is then adopted. The key points you need to know are:

a) determining housing need is a complex area with a number of factors from immigration, birth rates, average household size etc etc

B) Local authorities are against providing housing because it is not popular with local voters - who can keep them in power

c) the models used have always tended to under-estimated demand

d) the projections are made over 15 to 20 year timescales which cannot foresee future changes in government policy - eg UK opening up the boarders to other EU states; so no housing is provided for them

e) this failure of the system has been going on for about 30 years

When the government makes statements about an under-supply of housing it is this very complex area they are referring too; NOT the amount of properties for sale on 'rightmove'.

So why won't a House Price Crash happen?

Expecting a 20% fall of prices next year so you can buy a house? Sorry, its unlikely to happen. Because their has been such an under supply of housing their are countless people wanting to do the same thing. In fact so many people want a house price crash to happen so they can buy a house that they they go to housepricecrash.co.uk to try a convince themselve that it will. Another example of the under supply are the thousands of families waiting to be housed in Council housing in each local authority area; families in bedsits, the homeless, FTB's in rented accomodation, children still living at home - the list goes on and on and on - and its the reason that there will not be a house price crash. Its simple supply and demand!

What about the evidence for this under supply?

Government policy is changing with Gorden B proposing to develop more housing. This change in policy was in part brought on by a Treasury backed report by Kate Barker which examined the problem. you can find it at

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/consultation...arker_index.cfm

In simple terms it identifies the problem of housing under supply and the only way to resolve it by building more houses

Before this there was a white paper from 1996 called something like "where shall we live - the problem of housing need in 2016. This predicted that we shall need a further 3 millions homes by 2016.

But what about all this extra housing which GB has told you about?

Too little, too late really. The figure which he is providing will are only a fraction what we need to produce as an absolute minium. There are also serious concerns about delivery particully as as a new planning system has been put in place to speed up the entire planning system which happening the opposite effect.

what about the other factors of HPI such as the ease of credit

Yeah, your right, its not only the under supply of housing which has fueled HPI but also other factors such as the ease of credit, low interest rates etc etc. you've all debated them for years and they have all contributed BUT its all been underpinned by the lack of supply.

But prices seem to be easing off, interest rates are going higher the US housing market is in a right state and house price are not affordable

Its likely that these factors may lower house prices but its unlikely it will cause a crash. As soon as prices become affordable all the people who have struggled to get on the market will do so, increasing demand and therefore prices. On this affordabily issue remember their is plenty of money in the economy and securing a mortgage is still easy. I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

In a nut shell

1) massive under supply of housing over the last 30 years

2) This has underpinned recent HPI

3) Unable to build the houses needed to balance out the demand for housing

4) a 'crash' is unlikely to occur because any lowering of prices will make house purchasing more affordable which will increase demand and prices.

Just a few notes

A 'crash' in the market is not house prices weakening in a few parts of the country but more about huge loses of say 20 to 30% in a short period of time of say 6 months to a year

You may be impressed by some members and how they partry their argument across but if they've been a member for any amount of time, it means they have also predicting a crash for ages, which hasn't happened.

Im not saying the market won't go down slight - im sure it will. What im saying is that there won't be a crash

Know body can predict the future

Indeed, know[sic]body can predict the future. I haven't been calling a crash for years. I decided the time to talk about the impending crash (i.e. before it's too obvious but not so early as to sound too crazy) was in Q1 this year.

You're missing the point. Indeed, all of your arguments point to strong prices but prices never were strong because of your arguments.

Prices inflated because of the availability cheap money. That was the sole reason it happened. Everything else is just a story. Easy (but not so cheap) money is still around and there are plenty of people who will continue to scramble onto the 'ladder'.

But it will disappear in the fullness of time. It's impossible to say exactly when that might happen and if ratings agencies do not do a number on CDOs it may take longer than I expect. But I think they will downgrade the debt. I think they'll downgrade the toxic waste that has fueled this madness and it'll all come tumbling down.

At first, people will dive in to get the bargains but pretty soon they'll be shitting themselves as they see prices take great downwards tumbles.

People are greedy. Someone who bought at 200,000 and could sell for 650,000 won't accept 624,000, then 598,000 then 567,00...

And so it will go. This is a wild guess but I'd say around the end of autumn we'll see buy-to-letters doing 'the lemming'.

The world economy needs this money to be destroyed. It is all out of whack and must return to sanity. We all need housing to become housing again.

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I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk. This web site has been established for years now and still you are no closer to realising your goal - a HPC. Just perhaps, this housing market may be a little more complex than you all think and maybe, just maybe, your assumptions about a crash are miss-guided.

I believe the housing market is a little more complex than you think! Massive under supply - My ar*e there is. Nearly every ordinary street in Britain has multiple houses for rent or sale. If immigration has caused a lack of supply then that again is a ill-founded arguement - 2 million immigrants on a population of nearly 60 million, approx 3% population growth? Why would such a marginal increase cause a knock on effect on the housing market so as to elevate prices by 100% in the last 7 years? Answer - It couldnt and it hasnt. There is no lack of supply. Full stop. I can see where you think that if prices drop everyone waiting will just jump on the market and hence re-inflate the prices, however this will not happen. In the last four years we have seen growths in house prices of over 10% a year on average, and this was done at low interest rates with cheap credit. If prices drop, which they must, they would need to fall an awfully long way before people could afford the reduced prices but at far higher interest rates meaning more expensive credit. In this scenario, what you save with one hand, you pay out with the other. A guide to what my potentially happen is to look at the past trends - Any financial market will behave cyclically, reaching peaks and troughs in a fashion. This has been documented and proven! In our current situation we are well overdue a correction in the market. The longer we keep rising, the further we will fall in order to return to the mean.

It generally is people like yourself who feed this culture of endless borrowing and bottomless debt, believing there cant possibly be a crash, and all based upon some ethno-economic black magic that the government and mortgage companies have conspired to feed you!! Nice one.

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I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk. This web site has been established for years now and still you are no closer to realising your goal - a HPC. Just perhaps, this housing market may be a little more complex than you all think and maybe, just maybe, your assumptions about a crash are miss-guided.

Good for you!

Personally I don't find your arguments convincing, if housing supply was restrictive we'd see rents rising and public parks being turned into shanty towns, neither of which is happening. So I remain an unreconstructed bear who anticipates a 20% nominal fall in house prices before 2010.

But that doesn't change the fact that this forum is a better place for contrarian bullish views, so more power to anyone brave enough to put their head above the trench.

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i suggest you read the Barker Report on the link provided in my main post

Just out of interest, how long have you been predicting a crash - your membership to this forum has been for quite a long time

LOL. Oh well done dgl1001. What impecable logic. Because there hasn't been a crash yet, there will never be a crash.

You better get out and pick up all the BTL mortgages you can. Safe as houses. Don't miss they boat.

Its a new paradigm. Its your pension. etc...etc.....etc.....

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1) Prices inflated because of the availability cheap money. That was the sole reason it happened. Everything else is just a story. Easy (but not so cheap) money is still around and there are plenty of people who will continue to scramble onto the 'ladder'.

Prices were rising well before the advent of cheap money. It was only an exacerbating factor 2002 onwards. Different geographical locations were at different stages of the house boom. In significant parts of London prices barely moved from 2002 to late 2005. The housing market is very fractured and many sub markets are currently acting completely differently to other sub markets.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I think you should re-think whether your area is really "popular and desirable".

Oh yes the Estate is still very popular and desirable, properties start at £280k up to £500k asking prices and have sold at these prices in the not to distant past. The strange thing is all the recent movers have come from Inner London and a couple of them who I have spoken to can`t believe how nice, peaceful, and chav free it is. ;)

My point was just that one repossession to start with IMO literally crashed our market overnight.

Ealing, I had many customers there, a very strange lot were they, still lived in the Victorian Times. :rolleyes:

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