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ah, the old boiling frog jobby. You know, this morning I realised what all this continuous VI and wishful thinking chatter about "one more rise" reminds me of. Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war. I'm sure none of you need reminding about the real outcome of that misguided attitude.

It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

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ah, the old boiling frog jobby. You know, this morning I realised what all this continuous VI and wishful thinking chatter about "one more rise" reminds me of. Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war. I'm sure none of you need reminding about the real outcome of that misguided attitude.

It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

its always the last straw that breaks the camel's back

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war.

With each one more attack the casualty rate became unacceptable.

Similiar today with IRs, with one more hike the casualty rate increases to which the powers in control may deem this to be unacceptable.

The troops in 1915 were ordered over the top, a refusal meant the firing squad, those who have overstretched themselves were willing volunteers.

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With each one more attack the casualty rate became unacceptable.

Similiar today with IRs, with one more hike the casualty rate increases to which the powers in control may deem this to be unacceptable.

The troops in 1915 were ordered over the top, a refusal meant the firing squad, those who have overstretched themselves were willing volunteers.

These were the lines I was thinking along. Actually, you've just got me to thinking - my grandfather volunteered at the age of 15 at the outset of the war - that's a measure of how enthusiastic the populace was at the beginning - and also just how lax the standards were for recruitment. More uncanny parallels...

I suppose we are fighting a war - a war that expresses itself through consumption and spending, where the weapons are our IOUs and the soldiers are our consumers.

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It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

Couldn't be better,keep those Haliwide rises in double figures and keep bringing on those rate hikes.When you live in an area where the price movement seems downward,it's having your cake and eating it.

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ah, the old boiling frog jobby. You know, this morning I realised what all this continuous VI and wishful thinking chatter about "one more rise" reminds me of. Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war. I'm sure none of you need reminding about the real outcome of that misguided attitude.

It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

Indeed. IMO, to see a crash or a severe correction in property, we need to have IRs at 8%. At this point, people will hurt and many will be forced to sell their property, FAST. If the property doesn't sell, then they will have to reduce prices, as will other people in their situation. This will create an avalanche-type situation that will bring prices down. HOWEVER, I'm not sure if the Government will allow IRs to hit 7%, let alone 8%. The Government want a soft landing for house prices and I wouldn't bet against this happening. HPI running for a few years at + or - 3% per year is very probable and that is what the Government should be aiming for.

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ah, the old boiling frog jobby. You know, this morning I realised what all this continuous VI and wishful thinking chatter about "one more rise" reminds me of. Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war. I'm sure none of you need reminding about the real outcome of that misguided attitude.

It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

orders_396x222.jpg

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Guest Skint Academic
ah, the old boiling frog jobby. You know, this morning I realised what all this continuous VI and wishful thinking chatter about "one more rise" reminds me of. Throughout World War 1, from 1915 right through to the end, the talk was continuously of "one more push" - i.e. how just one more big attack would break the enemy and win the war. I'm sure none of you need reminding about the real outcome of that misguided attitude.

It's been "one more rise" ever since these hikes started. No doubt it will be for quite some time to come.

One reason why I don't think they do want to burst the bubble or stop consumer spending, but to sustain it for as long as possible. If they don't put IR's up then the water heats up too quickly and the frog dies. If they put IRs up too quickly then the frog jumps out the boiler.

Now all they have to do is to sustain the bubble until GB calls a snap election.

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HPI running for a few years at + or - 3% per year is very probable and that is what the Government should be aiming for.

I have no doubt that this is what the government are hoping for, but given that the entire bubble is reliant on ever-increasing asset values to sustain itself, such stagnation is simply not possible IMO.

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Indeed. IMO, to see a crash or a severe correction in property, we need to have IRs at 8%. At this point, people will hurt and many will be forced to sell their property, FAST. If the property doesn't sell, then they will have to reduce prices, as will other people in their situation. This will create an avalanche-type situation that will bring prices down. HOWEVER, I'm not sure if the Government will allow IRs to hit 7%, let alone 8%. The Government want a soft landing for house prices and I wouldn't bet against this happening. HPI running for a few years at + or - 3% per year is very probable and that is what the Government should be aiming for.

How do you think they will manage this? Once we're in the negatives, sentiment will drive the market down.

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How do you think they will manage this? Once we're in the negatives, sentiment will drive the market down.

Absolutely agree, but the point there is that once that happens there will be no need to put IRs up to 8%, as the deflation of the bubble popping could well outweigh the price pressures of raw materials (which with the reduction in consumer demand may be possible, I am not sure as I cannot remember what happened last time).

I remember Peter Jay saying a long time ago that lowering interest rates to stimulate demand is a bit like trying to push something using a piece of string. Japan is an example of this. Of course this is only true in some circumstances (like maybe the next 10 years for instance).

I have no idea whether IRs will go up or down, but if things get bad, it is possible that Gordy or Captain Darling will sack the MPC for "incompentence" and an agressive cutting of IRs could follow. Rampant deflation is worse in general than rampant inflation, and they could take a decision that with so much debt around, inflation would be the medicine to devalue the debt. Desperate times and all that. Of course this is just a "scenario" to use the IPCC's vernacular and as such is not a prediction or forecast. :)

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How do you think they will manage this? Once we're in the negatives, sentiment will drive the market down.

My belief is that as the BTL brigade begin to sell off (gradually) and prices begin to reduce (gradually), FTBs will step in and prevent a large scale crash. Remember, there are A LOT of people waiting to buy. They will have to bite the bullet at some point.

I do agree though, that some very rough parts of the country with bad reputations for crime, amenities, etc, that have seen lots of HPI will go down as it is unlikely that FTBs will want to move into those areas. I believe London will be immune from a severe correction as demand for property in London is simply too high. London cannot be looked at in the same way as the rest of the country due to the international money that has and is being pumped into it from around the world.

Only time will tell of course, if I am right or wrong.

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My belief is that as the BTL brigade begin to sell off (gradually) and prices begin to reduce (gradually), FTBs will step in and prevent a large scale crash. Remember, there are A LOT of people waiting to buy. They will have to bite the bullet at some point.

I do agree though, that some very rough parts of the country with bad reputations for crime, amenities, etc, that have seen lots of HPI will go down as it is unlikely that FTBs will want to move into those areas. I believe London will be immune from a severe correction as demand for property in London is simply too high. London cannot be looked at in the same way as the rest of the country due to the international money that has and is being pumped into it from around the world.

Only time will tell of course, if I am right or wrong.

Intriguing.

Do you think the percentage of FTBs who 'have to bite the bullet' are sufficient to slow the crash to any measurable extent? I'm not convinced. I would expect the majority to wait for a significant change before getting on the ladder; otherwise it sort of defeats the whole point of them waiting in the first place.

I also disagree that London will be immune. There are plenty of slummy areas in the 'big smoke' and, though you're right that slummy areas will be hit badly, the nicer areas will follow as panic sets in.

You mention International money. What's to stop this drying up, especially given global potential of economic collapse? Also, why would this money be interested in a country with property that is losing value?

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Right, long post, here goes:

Do you think the percentage of FTBs who 'have to bite the bullet' are sufficient to slow the crash to any measurable extent? I'm not convinced. I would expect the majority to wait for a significant change before getting on the ladder; otherwise it sort of defeats the whole point of them waiting in the first place.

FTBs as well as property investors will buy up property, even when the YoY figures are turning slightly negative. The only thing that would prevent this is if the news papers (all of them) start printing extremely bearish news, such as 'repossessions at record highs', etc. The newspapers will be integral to pushing sentiment and HPI, downwards. Without the bearish newspaper reports I feel that lots of people will see house prices hitting and holding (like in 2005) and the buying will continue. Remember, in 2005, the Government saw HPI stalling, and they kick started things again. The Government, in my mind, will do whatever it takes to kickstart an ailing housing market. MEWing forms a massive chunk of a lot of people's surplus income. HPI and MEWing is very important to the Government. I wouldnt bet against the Government preventing a crash, just like it did in 2005.

I also disagree that London will be immune. There are plenty of slummy areas in the 'big smoke' and, though you're right that slummy areas will be hit badly, the nicer areas will follow as panic sets in.

There are a lot of slummy areas, in London. I agree. And these properties are going for very high prices due to their London postcodes. In a crash (if it does happen in the rest of the UK), I cant see these areas being affected too much, let alone the nice parts of London. Lots of people from outside the UK come to UK to look for work. London is the prime target. Noone from Poland dreams of coming to Birmingham to get work; they dream of London. London is the 2nd most expensive city in the world. The reason why things have become like this is because people with money want a piece of London. Moreover, London has become the financial capital of the world. Short of a nuclear bomb going off in Central London, I dont see this changing. To change this sentiment towards London will take a LONG time. So, given the housing demand from immigrants, BTL landlords wanting to rent to the immigrants and also the international money flooding into London, I just dont see house prices here depreciating by any significant amount, over the next 5-10 yrs.

You mention International money. What's to stop this drying up, especially given global potential of economic collapse?

It could dry up, but this will take many many years - perhaps 5-10yrs. Remember, what you are proposing is a global recession. This is what it would take for this international money to dry up. A global slowdown, which is more likely (though try telling that to China), wont see the international money dry up; more like slow down. This slow down, isnt enough to cause and sustain a crash in London.

Also, why would this money be interested in a country with property that is losing value?

According to my model, it wont be losing money. The property prices will be stagnating (on average). And besides London property will be there to prop UK prices up a little longer (not forever, though).

People on this board seem to think that London is the same as the rest of the country. This is not the case. In London, if you put up a studio flat for sale, providing it is priced at market rates (read: rip-off prices), it will go under offer in less than 10 days. The same cannot be said for a similar studio in say Manchester. In London, property is in SERIOUS demand. People that have tried to buy in London will know this. Those who have not tried to buy in London won't comprehend how difficult it is to buy a property down here. You only need to look in the anecdotes section for London property - its insane. The competition was fierce when I bought in 2005, it was fierce in 2006 and its exactly the same in 2007. Nothing has changed.

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My belief is that as the BTL brigade begin to sell off (gradually) and prices begin to reduce (gradually), FTBs will step in and prevent a large scale crash. Remember, there are A LOT of people waiting to buy. They will have to bite the bullet at some point.

I do agree though, that some very rough parts of the country with bad reputations for crime, amenities, etc, that have seen lots of HPI will go down as it is unlikely that FTBs will want to move into those areas. I believe London will be immune from a severe correction as demand for property in London is simply too high. London cannot be looked at in the same way as the rest of the country due to the international money that has and is being pumped into it from around the world.

Only time will tell of course, if I am right or wrong.

hahaha.

I can tell you NOW, for nothing, that you are wrong. If you want to know why, try searching the forum. There are literally dozens of threads started by 'neithers' (:-) like you espousing things they wanted to happen that rather unfortunately didn't

Its over now, has been since end Q107 . I'd suggest you start looking for another job - estate agency won't be in good shape for the best part of a decade, chummy.

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Its over now, has been since end Q107 . I'd suggest you start looking for another job - estate agency won't be in good shape for the best part of a decade, chummy.

Well, Estate Agency has done me well for the last few years. In fact, last month my total commission was £4k. :P

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I wish...

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Just dont lose them again in this 5 minute period or you have to go right down the snake and start at the beginning.

They are only "lost" when you stop looking for them.

Until then, they are simply "misplaced".

Therefore, to prevent them being "lost", just keep looking for them.

Or is it the case that the keys do not exist unless someone is aware of their existence ?

In which case they only cease to exist when you stop thinking about them.

There.... now you can't stop thinking about keys, can you ??

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I can tell you NOW, for nothing, that you are wrong. If you want to know why, try searching the forum. There are literally dozens of threads started by 'neithers' (:-) like you espousing things they wanted to happen that rather unfortunately didn't

outnumbered maybe 100 to 1 by the many hundreds of threads started by 'bears' (:-) espousing things they wanted to happen that rather unfortunately didn't.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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