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Jonnybegood

If Prices Do Begin To Fall

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Was up my brothers house earlier looking at property in his street and it does seem from the LR records that many of the houses sold have been pretty much the same prices since 2003, the properties that little bit more (£15k above inflation) are normally extended or of a very high standard.

Heres the typical examples

2000 - £79k

2001 - £94k , £91k

2003 - £135k , £144k , £134k

2004 - £147k

2005 - £151k , £144k

2006 - £155k

2007 - No sales

So my question, if we have this predicted crash of 30,40,50% then the houses in this street will be less expensive than in 2000 and basically wipes out any gains made in the past 7 years.

I am sorry, but find it hard to believe this will ever happen.

Even 30% will wipe 5 years off any gains made.

If this crash does come the falls across the country will be very wide ranging based on house type , location and what kind of gains were made in the preceding 5-6 years.

Edited by Jonnybegood

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Was up my brothers house earlier looking at property in his street and it does seem from the LR records that many of the houses sold have been pretty much the same prices since 2003, the properties that little bit more (£15k above inflation) are normally extended or of a very high standard.

Heres the typical examples

2000 - £79k

2001 - £94k , £91k

2003 - £135k , £144k , £134k

2004 - £147k

2005 - £151k , £144k

2006 - £155k

2007 - No sales

So my question, if we have this predicted crash of 30,40,50% then the houses in this street will be less expensive than in 2000 and basically wipes out any gains made in the past 7 years.

I am sorry, but find it hard to believe this will ever happen.

Even 30% will wipe 5 years off any gains made.

If this crash does come the falls across the country will be very wide ranging based on house type , location and what kind of gains were made in the preceding 5-6 years.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol: If its going to crash its going to crash. It might do it might not but it will NOT continue to rise at the current and past percentages. So its only heading one way as markets do not plateaux for any length of time, they are either up or down.

Edited by tackle2004

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So a 30,40,50% drop is unlikely! So was a 300% increase likely over the last 10 years? I laugh at anyone who thinks a 40% drop is unlikely. Get real, house prices will crash and it ain't gonna be nice. Boom bust boom bust, it's been that way for a long time in all sorts of markets.

And yes, this time it is different. IT'S MUCH WORSE THAN EVER!

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2000 - £79k

2001 - £94k , £91k

2003 - £135k , £144k , £134k

2004 - £147k

Those are exactly the kind of stupid rises that make a crash likely. Prices almost doubled in 3-4 years! Then they hit a point where few can afford to buy, so prices stagnated. No doubt - as happened where I am - many people, seeing those increases, decided to sit on property as an investment rather than sell, keeping supply unusually low and price inflated - plus the news has been price rises all over Britain for the past few years, so no falling back. If there's a crash elsewhere, it'll likely fall back as those sitting on property they don't need get out.

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Although the numbers in my area would be a lot higher, the general principle would be true. The big rises around here happened between 1999 and 2003 - dropped in 2004/5, rose again in 2006 and now are perhaps 5% higher than their peak at the end of 2003.

Incidentally prices where I live have in no way trebled since, for example, 1997/8. Doubled yes - plus a bit more. But trebled no.

Prices in other areas I know have gone up by a factor of 4 or even more. I am thinking of Northern cities like Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle where 10 years ago you could buy houses for 20k to 30k which are now over 100k to buy.

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:lol::lol::lol:

I think a crash will be around 25-30% max.

There were bargains around in the last recession, where they looked like 50% had been wiped off the value. If you were brave enough to veiw the cheap properties you would find they were practically derelict, neglected for many years, and the costs to renovate would be more than the house price.

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I think a crash will be around 25-30% max.

There were bargains around in the last recession, where they looked like 50% had been wiped off the value. If you were brave enough to veiw the cheap properties you would find they were practically derelict, neglected for many years, and the costs to renovate would be more than the house price.

Do you think the price drops will be 25-30% in real or nominal terms? If real - over how many years?

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