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Muskoka

Should I Buy Or Wait?

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i sold 3 weeks ago - completed & funds in banks. Im lucky cos I can stay with a friend as long as I like & my stuff is in storage. At some stage I do need my own roof (not being a youngster anymore), but I really dont know if to jump off the fence now & buy, or wait about 6 months & see what happens. Im also lucky in that I have enough funds to buy a house outright (uh not so long pre-retirement), so do I wait a while & jump off the fence & buy now? I really dont know which way to jump? Any advice really would be appreciated... Im not some high flyer & dont understand all the ins & outs, but it looks to me that I should be patient & wait? ;)

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Given you have taken the time to register and then post on a House Price Crash forum, I think you are just looking for comfort on a decision you have already made.

As I see it (and FWIW, I'm MRICS and a real estate banker), there are two possible outcomes.

1 Market stabilises and as long as you have your cash in a decent savings account, you will be no worse off.

2 Market falls and you can buy more with your cash/retire earlier.

Anyone who pretends they know for certain which one it will be is lying.

That being said, markets are emotional things, and don't plateau - they always move up or down. As it is hard to believe that the direction can be upward for much longer I think it is the latter, hence I have STRed when moving out of London, but we have all be consistently surprised by this boom.

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Given you have taken the time to register and then post on a House Price Crash forum, I think you are just looking for comfort on a decision you have already made.

As I see it (and FWIW, I'm MRICS and a real estate banker), there are two possible outcomes.

1 Market stabilises and as long as you have your cash in a decent savings account, you will be no worse off.

2 Market falls and you can buy more with your cash/retire earlier.

Anyone who pretends they know for certain which one it will be is lying.

That being said, markets are emotional things, and don't plateau - they always move up or down. As it is hard to believe that the direction can be upward for much longer I think it is the latter, hence I have STRed when moving out of London, but we have all be consistently surprised by this boom.

I am in exactly the same position apart from I am going to rent for at least 6 months before I decide whether I can afford to buy again.I have health issues and we need to buy a home that is motrgage free and below the stamp duty threshold which in Brighton has become impossible.

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I am in a similar position. Sold a month ago - but also relocated to somewhere where houses are cheaper (so looking like cheap as chips to me). I am also down-sizing, from a 6-bed to a 1-bed.

I've shovelled the cash into high interest bank accounts + a cash ISA (don't understand anything else, so stick with what you know).

I will just be keeping an eye on what is for sale that I like, watching the market, checking house prices sold etc in the areas I am interested in and if I see something I don't want to lose I CAN buy if I want, but expecting to wait it out 5-8 years, while savings grow and hopefully I can add to them.

Currently in a house share (no commitment, no bills, set amount per month). I am not working - I do plan on getting a job though, which might alter what/where I can buy and my future decisions.

So ... just wait and see. But if you see a house that meets all your criteria it isn't a bad thing if you chicken out and buy. After all, "nobody really knows" do they.

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I am in a similar position. Sold a month ago - but also relocated to somewhere where houses are cheaper (so looking like cheap as chips to me). I am also down-sizing, from a 6-bed to a 1-bed.

I've shovelled the cash into high interest bank accounts + a cash ISA (don't understand anything else, so stick with what you know).

I will just be keeping an eye on what is for sale that I like, watching the market, checking house prices sold etc in the areas I am interested in and if I see something I don't want to lose I CAN buy if I want, but expecting to wait it out 5-8 years, while savings grow and hopefully I can add to them.

Currently in a house share (no commitment, no bills, set amount per month). I am not working - I do plan on getting a job though, which might alter what/where I can buy and my future decisions.

So ... just wait and see. But if you see a house that meets all your criteria it isn't a bad thing if you chicken out and buy. After all, "nobody really knows" do they.

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I'm in the same situation (STR in Dec 06).

The reason the decision's difficult is that there's probably not much in it either way - chances of making big savings on a house purchase within a tolerable timeframe are not great (crashes are slow).

On the other hand if your interest is enough to cover any rent then you're losing nothing.

I'm renting until I get bored then I will bargain hard for a house from a position of strength (already having somewhere to live and being a cash buyer).

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Guest The_Oldie
Thanks folks.

Think you folks are right. I need to be patient!! :huh::huh:

I sold my (mortgage free) house in 2005.

The first year was a bit strange as we had always been owner occupiers, but now we're used to it, renting is great :)

If and when we buy, it will be a smaller house as the kids have flown the nest and we no longer need a big house, but at the moment renting is by far the best option for us as the interest on our house capital is about double what we pay in rent.

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I'm in the same situation (STR in Dec 06).

The reason the decision's difficult is that there's probably not much in it either way - chances of making big savings on a house purchase within a tolerable timeframe are not great (crashes are slow).

On the other hand if your interest is enough to cover any rent then you're losing nothing.

I'm renting until I get bored then I will bargain hard for a house from a position of strength (already having somewhere to live and being a cash buyer).

It's interesting that STR seems to be becoming more common - it seems that many posters here that have chosen to STR remember the last crash and are basing their decision to STR on that experience.

IMO the fact that the last crash was a nominal one, rather than in real terms only, is bound to have a big impact on sentiment and expectations this time round. Especially as speculative factors, namely BTL, are much stronger.

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Guest The_Oldie
IMO the fact that the last crash was a nominal one, rather than in real terms....

Actually, it wasn't...

nationwide.jpg

post-2126-1184519820_thumb.jpg

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i dont mean to sound rude but.....why post on a site called "HousePrice Crash" and ask people if they think it is a good time to buy?

Edited by DerekD

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Guest The_Oldie
Sorry - could you explain? The last crash in 89 to early nineties was nominal wasn't it?

I wasn't sure what you meant by "nominal, rather than real terms". The last crash was both nominal and in real terms.

Edit: I like posting that Nationwide calculator shot though as it brings it home that London is not invulnerable.

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I wasn't sure what you meant by "nominal, rather than real terms". The last crash was both nominal and in real terms.

Sorry, bad wording on my part. I said 'nominal rather than real terms only'. I meant not only in real terms, but nominal too.

We'd need a deflationary recession to see a crash in nominal terms but not real wouldn't we?

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Sorry, bad wording on my part. I said 'nominal rather than real terms only'. I meant not only in real terms, but nominal too.

We'd need a deflationary recession to see a crash in nominal terms but not real wouldn't we?

Hi BB,

your in luck then, as we have it's bigger brother coming to visit us for the next 10 years, Mr Deflationary Depression. ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Hi BB,

your in luck then, as we have it's bigger brother coming to visit us for the next 10 years, Mr Deflationary Depression. ;)

Hi GOM

I'm planning to run away and hide from that monster. :ph34r:

Does he bear any relation to Godzuki?

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Hi GOM

I'm planning to run away and hide from that monster. :ph34r:

Does he bear any relation to Godzuki?

well I'm planning for the worst case scenario as best I can, if it's only a recession then so be it.

If you follow the financial part of the crash & the global weight/impact it is carrying, I can't help but feel that a lot of people on here will be in for a big shock.....& as for the general debt laden public, they are fooked imo.

I see from your location, that at least you could be in a nice climate, with a bit of culture when it hits. ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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DD - Not rude at all, just trying to get other peoples opinions who probably have far, far more experience of these markets than I will ever have. AND most souls here are friendly & not impartial to giving advice. :) My fave websites now are hpc & property snake. I do want to buy but um, at the right time if I can be patient enough

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Oh how I wish I had a nice husband who could make all these hard decisions for me.... my poor little female brain hates making all life's decisions alone. I'd much rather have them made for me.

Of course, it'd be better if he knew his ars*h*le from his elbow of course. But it would be nice to just smile and say "whatever you think is best dear"

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Oh how I wish I had a nice husband who could make all these hard decisions for me.... my poor little female brain hates making all life's decisions alone. I'd much rather have them made for me.

Of course, it'd be better if he knew his ars*h*le from his elbow of course. But it would be nice to just smile and say "whatever you think is best dear"

I agree, I think it is the case the most of the increase has been driven by the modern female who has pushed their partners to go to excess, for many men they get the ultimatum. "Either we have 2 children and six bed house in Maderia Drive in three years, next door to Sasha and Joshua, or I am leaving you for someone who can cut the mustard".

Most men would be pleased to own a house within walking distance of a pub, and near a newsagents to get their copy of Sunday Sport each day.

Edited by laurejon

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Should I Buy Or Wait?

You were on the fast show wernt you?

I really liked you in the store clips where you asked if you should buy or not :lol: really funny.

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I sympathise- I sold my house in March (not planned- divorce!) and decided to rent whilst looking for a house to buy with much reduced capital (won't go there here!) - but enough to still (possibly) buy a modest house outright.

However after a couple of months, i decided that I'll stay renting. Partly owing to reading stuff on here, as well- convincing myself that the housing market wasn't in the seriois HPI state that the media would have us beleive, and that i would not lose out by not buying. My money in the bank gives me enough interest to rent somewhere far nicer than I could buy with the same money (or renting somewhere modest and gaining interest well above the rental), and i have, after 4 months, got over the psychological barrier of renting. I admit that was the most difficult thing at first.

What's interesting is that I can now envisage not buying at all for the rest of my life- which is quite amazing after owning property for many years and assuming this was the only way forward. Even more interesting is that I'm now really questioning the whole issue about even having a house- just contemplating buying a boat and going off round the world- at even less cost than renting- and might even be able to live off the interest income plus income from selling paintings ( a dream for a long time, but not a reality owning a house), without "having" to work... security or freedom!

This site- and associated weblinks etc. has certainly opened my eyes to other possibilities.

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