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Edinburgh Prices Always Go Up......

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Thought people may be interested in this.

The Edinburgh property 'Never bust before will always go up ' market is not quite as solid as many think.

Someone I know just bought a new build flat in an area near the city centre. Lift, private parking, en suite etc.....

Person bought it 4 years ago for £166,000. She got it for £172,000.

Correct me if I am wrong but in real terms that is a fall when you take into account inflation?

That is reality, and whilst there is no doubt a lot of property in Edinburgh still selling for a lot of money, I don't think the bigger picture is as rosy as many think.

There was an article 2 weeks ago in the Scotsman stating that the average price of a 2 bedroom flat in Edinburgh had risen by 50% in the last 12 months. That is quite simply a lie. Where they get there numbers from is a mystery. That would mean an average 2 bed was £100,000 a year ago and is now £150,000. That is nonsense, and anyone who lives in Edinburgh knows that.

Interesting times ahead me thinks !! :rolleyes:

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If I was a BTLer and drove around in Edinburgh and saw what a massive amount of Ghettoes executive flats

rabbit holes is beeing built at the moment, I would start panicking. Prices for flats will go literally into freefall 2 years from

now (at the latest).

Edited by Goldfinger

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There was an article 2 weeks ago in the Scotsman stating that the average price of a 2 bedroom flat in Edinburgh had risen by 50% in the last 12 months. That is quite simply a lie.

How do you know its a lie? Possibly prices on average have increased by 50%. Your anecdote merely puts your friend in the 50% of people who have seen less than 50% HPI. Calm down dear.

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Apparently they are struggling to sell properties in the new developments across the water from Ocean Terminal.

I am sort of monitoring all this crap that is being built in the north. Also Pilrig Heights, Fountainbridge, and so on.

My opinion: it's all doomed. It's classical mis-allocated capital that needs to be wiped out by an Austrian credit

crunch. There is no way around it.

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My opinion: it's all doomed. It's classical mis-allocated capital that needs to be wiped out by an Austrian credit

crunch. There is no way around it.

Last time this happened in St Cuthbert's Parish was 1826. Total building bust.

Hence the curious hiatus in architectural styles between full-on strict neo-classicism of the Georgian flava, and Carpenter's Gothic/Victorian developments. Think of the "Thrift if Bleffing" TSB (?) branch on Lothian Road, first after the canal went in, then the ordinary Marchmont/Bruntsfield tenement beloved of the HMO bandits. In between, well, not a lot.

Anybody prepared for a half-century breather in construction activity?

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Problem is, this NBC (new-built crap) won't even survive a quarter century.

Absolutely. But a large shed, say, built to ridiculously unintelligent mediaeval precepts, out of, oh, I don't know, oak timbers and clay, and straw and cow sh!t, could well hang around blighting the landscape, and performing its intended function, for half a millennium or more. ;)

Somebody once told me a funny thing. "Just because people are dead, it does not mean that they were stupid."

So why is this "NBC" even tolerated? Its a sort of loony potlatch, of perfectly useful and inoffensive building materials.

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How do you know its a lie? Possibly prices on average have increased by 50%. Your anecdote merely puts your friend in the 50% of people who have seen less than 50% HPI. Calm down dear.

It means nothing of the sort.

I really, truely, honestly hope that you are a paid EA shill and are delibrately trolling because if you arent then your ability to read, extract and extrapolate information is way, way, way below anything that could be even described as 'sub-normal'.

What sort of brainfart are you having to extrapolate this information from what ccc said?

(If youve recently had a stroke or are on psycho-active medication, then I apologise!)

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Thought people may be interested in this.

The Edinburgh property 'Never bust before will always go up ' market is not quite as solid as many think.

Someone I know just bought a new build flat in an area near the city centre. Lift, private parking, en suite etc.....

Person bought it 4 years ago for £166,000. She got it for £172,000.

Correct me if I am wrong but in real terms that is a fall when you take into account inflation?

That is reality, and whilst there is no doubt a lot of property in Edinburgh still selling for a lot of money, I don't think the bigger picture is as rosy as many think.

There was an article 2 weeks ago in the Scotsman stating that the average price of a 2 bedroom flat in Edinburgh had risen by 50% in the last 12 months. That is quite simply a lie. Where they get there numbers from is a mystery. That would mean an average 2 bed was £100,000 a year ago and is now £150,000. That is nonsense, and anyone who lives in Edinburgh knows that.

Interesting times ahead me thinks !! :rolleyes:

Yes it is technically a drop in "real" prices but not many would care about their houses real value falling as at the same time wage inflation should start to erode the debt.

Interesting about the article about 50% price rises. I know somebody who bought in edinburgh 2 years ago for 80 thousand and just sold for 130 thousand (and the place was a rabbit hutch). They are moving to the borders and buying a house for not much more money.

I think edinburgh is a cool place to live. I have to admit I am a fan of new builds and after renting in some for the last year and renting one out personally in London I would find it hard to live in a non new build. I'm not convinced they would drop more in a crash unless they were priced much more than non new builds prior to a crash. This is clearly the case in places like Bradfod where new builds were flogged at 300000 which is probably more than any other property in the city.

Houses are different. I hate new build housing estates. Double standards I suppose but when I buy a house I want a large garden and plenty of space and a house that looks different to all surruonding houses and while I live in a flat I want a nice shiny new looking one with new gadgets and attached luxuries.

How much are the flats across from ocean warf selling for these days?

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There was an article 2 weeks ago in the Scotsman stating that the average price of a 2 bedroom flat in Edinburgh had risen by 50% in the last 12 months. That is quite simply a lie. Where they get there numbers from is a mystery. That would mean an average 2 bed was £100,000 a year ago and is now £150,000. That is nonsense, and anyone who lives in Edinburgh knows that.

Interesting times ahead me thinks !! :rolleyes:

There was a discussion of this here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry685894

My view:

This is simple propaganda.

Edinburgh prices indeed are the looniest of all and they will suffer greatly, in the fullness of time. (Apologies to people in Dublin and other cities, I'm probably wrong about Edinburgh being the craziest.)

You bet that outside investors are the ones ponying-up, for anyone with any knowledge of the area who buys into this market (or has bought over the last year or two) will find it very hard, very soon.

I've seen a two-bed (new build fancy-pants vastly overpriced for outsiders) in one of the worst streets in Europe going for three hundred thousand. After the crash they might get 90-100,000. I grew up in that area and I know the difference between a street full of streetwalkers and a street where the streetwalkers have been moved on (for a while).

Indeed, this type of hype has to happen so that prices can work up a bit of steam on the way down. I don't believe volumes are high but the market needs one last run up on volume so thin you could probably see the one buyer responsible for the whole average.

Also, are these asking prices or done deals? For the Scottish market has a very interesting wrinkle where 30-90% (soon to be 0% for blind auctions will disappear) of the price is completely hidden by the offers-over system.

His (vested interest) comment about first-time buyer demand not abating sounds extremely iffy to me. It is simply impossible for first-time buyers to be sustaining demand within such a highly-inflated environment. (Sorry, I think they called it "growth".)

I love the way they cover themselves with the bit about interest rates rising and thus prices will only rise by 7%. This guy must have a time machine. Why not 7.3%? Why not up 5% or 3%? (Makes it sound real though.)

I'd have to see their methodology to gauge why they've come out, right in front of potentially the greatest crash the world has ever seen and published such bullishit [sic].

Here's what they (the ‘analysts') say on their site: "...even the Treasury publishes our predictions for the UK economy."

Even the Treasury? My, my, you guys must be very proud.

The Treasury is fab at predictions (as are, therefore, these guys) as long as everything is going to go up in nice single, friendly figures (say 2-9%). Then reality gets to be the same as the prediction. How nice that must be for reality.

I wonder if they think the housing markets in other parts of the world are going down because they're in other parts of the world?

Unfortunately, exactly the same things that are bringing prices down in the US are bringing prices down in Australia; Mmm, what do they say about the rest of the world? Nothing? Perhaps Edinburgh is immune? Perhaps Edinburgh exists within its own little economy, unbothered by pesky interest rates and crashing CDOs? It's the haggis effect. No doubt these geniuses will be right on it, dissecting that which makes wearing a kilt financially sensible.

Of course, everyone is rich in Edinburgh, I suppose that helps prices. There's Pilton and Wester Hailes and Niddrie and Drylaw and Leith... the list of wonderful areas simply stretches out before one. (Pilton used to be the only place in Western Europe that got aid from Oxfam, and ask J.K Rowling why she moved out of Wester Hailes.)

The average price is 225,000? If that is a real price then how many units were assessed? How many done deals? Might not the FTB market have gone AWOL two years ago when the average price was only five times their basic salaries? The average wage in Scotland is, I believe, but someone can correct me if I'm way off the mark, around £20,000. So the current average house price in Edinburgh is more than eleven times earnings? And these jokers are claiming the first-time buyer market is strong?

Lies, damn lies, wee guys who should be held to account.

So, interest rate rises could cool the market to a 7% rise. Well I'll see your 7% rise and raise you a 70% fall from these levels.

They say the average two-bed rose by 15% or £50,000: Wouldn't that make the average two-bed price around £333,000? So the figure of £225,000 is a figure with lots of one-beds in it?

I have to say that I find this article a disgrace and I'd bet my left bollock that almost none of it is true. It calls itself a study. It is a study in hoodwinkery.

I live in Glasgow and I watch prices like the old lady across the road watches everyone. I hardly take my eye off them for a minute and I know they have not risen by 11% this year, or if they have it's only because it's only more expensive houses that now get sold; thus pumping an average but not general prices. There is almost no first-time buyer's market in Glasgow's West End.

And in Glasgow or Edinburgh or anywhere else in Scotland, for that matter, nobody ever knows what any price is because of the offers-over system. So if it's done deals then the deals do not tell the tale and if it ain't then forget it anyway. The only way to gauge prices is after they're done (a three-month wait) or to badger estate agents and everyone else. But these guys sound like they’re implying that they’re talking about current prices (as if they got it from the horse’s mouth; you know, all those honest-to-goodness estate agents).

But this is an important phase of the crash. These guys think they're preparing the market for another interest rate rise. What they don't get is that we don't have no mo' money left to buy two beds over a whorehouse and next to the docks (sorry, area buzzing with cafes and art galleries and trollops) for three-hundred and thirty grand.

I just realized that if the average two-bed rose by £50,000 or 15% then that means the new price is £330,000 plus 50,000 (given that 15% equals £50,000) so it's now £380,000 for a two bed?

If put on the rack these guys would probably say that two-beds went up 50,000 but not 15% and everything else went up 15% and not £50,000. Either way, I hope they're enjoying themselves ripping the guts out of the poor sods who believe them.

I think I'll buy one. I'll sell it in ten years for £750,000 or I might even keep it for twenty, when it'll be worth £1.5 million (at only a modest 7% 'growth').

I love the property market. It never goes down, it always goes up forever.

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Nice post.

You bet that outside investors are the ones ponying-up, for anyone with any knowledge of the area who buys into this market (or has bought over the last year or two) will find it very hard, very soon.

Another factor a few years ago, which I think has also helped to fuel demand in the Edinburgh area, was that many of the big banks who are headquartered around here (RBS in particular, IIRC) offer special extra-discounted mortgage deals to their employees. As if there wasn't enough cheap money sloshing around as it was.

The "offers over" system is ridiculous: it's just dishonest to put something on the market without giving potential buyers a clear idea of what you are expecting them to pay. I've even heard solicitors themselves saying this. (For the uninitiated, EAs in Scotland are all "property solicitors" because they do legal stuff as well. Kinda like pure concentrated evil in a suit.)

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Nice post.

Another factor a few years ago, which I think has also helped to fuel demand in the Edinburgh area, was that many of the big banks who are headquartered around here (RBS in particular, IIRC) offer special extra-discounted mortgage deals to their employees. As if there wasn't enough cheap money sloshing around as it was.

The "offers over" system is ridiculous: it's just dishonest to put something on the market without giving potential buyers a clear idea of what you are expecting them to pay. I've even heard solicitors themselves saying this. (For the uninitiated, EAs in Scotland are all "property solicitors" because they do legal stuff as well. Kinda like pure concentrated evil in a suit.)

Indeed. I'm hoping that Tesco will put a lot of them (estate agents) out of business (although I use the term 'business' loosely, as publishing an 'offers over' price and some dimensions but being ignorant as to any and every other question doesn't seem like much of a business. If you go the solicitors' property web sites they don't even seem to know the difference between a semi and a detached house.) If they (Tesco) put the lot of them out of business I'd be a happy camper indeed. Agents should and must be licensed so that we can take action when they cheat or mislead us. I hope Tesco also move into surveying.

Have you ever seen Corum? These people don't even put 'offers over' prices in their window. I expect one is supposed to go in and ask "How much is that one? How much is this one? How much is the other one?"

If I intend to spend a hundred quid on electronics I spend hours researching but if I want to spend half a million dollars on a rabbit hutch in the docks I get to look at it for five minutes while a guy who earns 4.50 an hour makes faces if I ask how much the council tax is. One agent even (lied) told me that they stopped telling people what the council tax was because if they were wrong the customer got angry. (Although I'll admit I never looked at a docks flat in real life I have looked at many flats and houses and never once got a single answer to any question outside of being told the (offers over) 'price'.)

In Scotland I've made offers in the past and been told that my offer 'wasn't serious' because I hadn't paid for a survey. Yes, in Scotland one has to fork out 200 quid for a guy to look at a place for two minutes. We have to pay to make an offer and our politicians think that's a good way to run a market?

Edinburgh has never crashed?

Well, Edinburgh is about to crash. People are too greedy to take a loss so it won't happen tomorrow but it will happen. Gordo can subsidize banks to extend the expansion but not all mortgages will be larded by the government.

Banks will, in the not too distant future, start to mop up the flood. Credit will contract, and when it does it will all happen much faster than we could imagine.

Of course, estate agents in Scotland do give us 'an idea' of the price when they say "I never recommend anyone spending more than 30% over... but one went for 80% over last week."

These people are low-paid, mostly under-educated doormen who have little idea what they're doing.

Imagine walking into a car showroom with half a million dollars to spend. Do you think they'd offer the kind of cheek we hear from estate agents? People who 'sell' items that cost that much should be licensed and fully-educated. Laws should be enforceable. Gazumping is supposed to be impossible in Scotland, it is not.

The wonderful thing about watching a crash in Scotland is we get to feel them squirm as the 'offers over' disappear into nothingness. They'll use this 'stealth' portion of the price as a place to hide drops but they won't be able to use it for long.

The utter lack of transparency in the Scottish market will lead to it getting skelped all the more, in the fullness of time. Unfortunately, The Scotsman and the Glasgow Herald make a lot of money printing 'housing supplements' that make them a lot of money so they won't start actually reporting any price falls until they think the market is on the way up (they'll get that wrong as well).

One more thing I'd add to this little rant is this: I've watched the Scottish market closely for about four years. In that time I've seen the same flats and houses sell over and over again. I think we have real variations on the old story where two farmers sell a nag to each other back and forth until the price gets so high that a guy from Wall Street arrives to securitize it.

It's funny how a thing like a crash in this market seem so incredibly unlikely, yet after it happens it will look like there was never any other way it could have happened.

All the current argey-bargey is really only the smart money taking small losses to get out before the freight train runs them over.

But if the government comes out with some kind of rescue package for home-owners we should bloody riot. I still have no idea how they'll subsidize 25-year mortgages. Imagine how much that'll cost us and imagine how much banks will make out of that. It'll be like renting one's shitty BTL to the council for a grand a month so that a couple of heroin addicts have a nice place to stay.

Indeed, I'm thinking of taking up heroin as a career move. I can certainly generate a lot more 'wealth' as a scrounger than a worker. (Debt = Wealth, you know.)

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How do you know its a lie? Possibly prices on average have increased by 50%. Your anecdote merely puts your friend in the 50% of people who have seen less than 50% HPI. Calm down dear.

You seem to have missed the point. If house prices on average have risen by 50% and some haven't risen at all then there must be many out there that have gone up by 100% or similar in a year to even it out. This is simply not true.

Edinburgh has long been seen as the 'safe' place for property. How many times have I heard 'Never had a crash here - will never have a crash here'.

And all of a sudden a new flat near the city centre with parking, a lift, balcony and en-suite has FALLEN in price in real terms over the past 4 years. In my humble opinion that is massive news.

People simply don't know this is happening yet. Once they do things may start to point downhill very quick. Or maybe not. Who knows.

But if I was a betting man I know where my cash would be going.....

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One further problem with Edinburgh is that it's highly incestuous. It's full of lawyers and financial people with a vested interest in property, people who've made a fortune from it already and, because of the offers over system, have massive power (if you're with the right lawyer, you know exactly what to offer to beat the highest by a tiny amount, of not, you're shooting in the dark with that system). It's all about lawyers and EAs back scratching.

What really pissed me off yesterday was my Mum telling me that her accountant had advised that my sister should be taking on a second IO mortgage (she has one already on her main residence, which is let out while she's abroad) to go into BTL. She's abroad at the moment and doesn't even have a job to come back to, but his advice is to take on a second £250,000 IO mortgage... :o

This is crazy, but typically Edinburgh. My guess is that the vested interests with all their power will do anything to keep prices rising and if young folk are screwed to do it, that's life. Being priced out of Edinburgh forever if you don't get on the ladder is a constantly repeated threat here. It's a lie that property prices never fall here though - they fell over 30% in the last crash.

Edited by Fergie

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One further problem with Edinburgh is that it's highly incestuous. It's full of lawyers and financial people with a vested interest in property, people who've made a fortune from it already and, because of the offers over system, have massive power (if you're with the right lawyer, you know exactly what to offer to beat the highest by a tiny amount, of not, you're shooting in the dark with that system). It's all about lawyers and EAs back scratching.

Question: when people put a property on at a fixed price is it usually a fanciful price or approximately what they would get if they put it on "offers over" and let bidding do its work?

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Question: when people put a property on at a fixed price is it usually a fanciful price or approximately what they would get if they put it on "offers over" and let bidding do its work?

Fixed price is generally used when there's some problem with the property, or a quick sale is needed, and the seller/EA thinks offers over might not get them the interest or price they'd ideally like. It's the price they would hope to get from an offers only, but gives them more certainty, rather than putting it to bidding and possibly getting only low offers.

The general rule - at least in Edinburgh - is that you're expected to offer around 30% over the OO price. However, in good times, when there's a frenzy, this can rise massively, sometimes to as much as 100% over, if there's a lot of interest. The other thing they do to is have open times - Sunday and Thursday evenings generally - for viewings. So you can tell if there's a lot of interest, and you also know how many notes of interest are in before the closing date.

That's why, if a property is decent, and there's no hurry, they'll always put it on OO, because there's the chance of a massive bid. So when you see a lot of FPs coming on the market, that's basically a sign that the market's cooling down and things aren't moving so fast, or for as much as people would like on OO. If something was OO £100,000 and you offered £110,000, for example, and you were the only offer, it's likely the property would go to FP of £125,000 because that's what they'd actually been hoping for. It's a nutty system, and deeply unfair to buyers.

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Fixed price is generally used when there's some problem with the property, or a quick sale is needed, and the seller/EA thinks offers over might not get them the interest or price they'd ideally like. It's the price they would hope to get from an offers only, but gives them more certainty, rather than putting it to bidding and possibly getting only low offers.

The general rule - at least in Edinburgh - is that you're expected to offer around 30% over the OO price. However, in good times, when there's a frenzy, this can rise massively, sometimes to as much as 100% over, if there's a lot of interest. The other thing they do to is have open times - Sunday and Thursday evenings generally - for viewings. So you can tell if there's a lot of interest, and you also know how many notes of interest are in before the closing date.

That's why, if a property is decent, and there's no hurry, they'll always put it on OO, because there's the chance of a massive bid. So when you see a lot of FPs coming on the market, that's basically a sign that the market's cooling down and things aren't moving so fast, or for as much as people would like on OO. If something was OO £100,000 and you offered £110,000, for example, and you were the only offer, it's likely the property would go to FP of £125,000 because that's what they'd actually been hoping for. It's a nutty system, and deeply unfair to buyers.

That's all well and good, but a property is only worth what someone is prepared to pay. In your last example, if someone offered £110k on offers over and nobody else is interested, why would it sell for more if they put it on the market for £125 fp? Surely the same person would probably be the only person interested, and could over £110k again?

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It means nothing of the sort.

I really, truely, honestly hope that you are a paid EA shill and are delibrately trolling because if you arent then your ability to read, extract and extrapolate information is way, way, way below anything that could be even described as 'sub-normal'.

What sort of brainfart are you having to extrapolate this information from what ccc said?

(If youve recently had a stroke or are on psycho-active medication, then I apologise!)

Be fair here. Todays times says that prices wont crash. That piece of newspaper journalism is as valid as any other. Is the Scotsman so wrong? Is the OP so right? My point was that the average is exactly that, and the OP didnt even try and demonstate wide scale price falls.

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It's a lie that property prices never fall here though - they fell over 30% in the last crash.

They also fell in some areas in 2005, although it was kept quiet at the time. The ESPC publish tables of quarterly figures that you might be familiar with. In 2005 some areas mysteriously vanished from the tables, and then they stopped publishing the figures altogether for a couple of quarters, only issuing vague statements saying how fantastically the market was doing. Then in the middle of last year the figures appeared on the ESPC website (see the bottom of http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=20) and lo and behold! things hadn't been going too well at all. In Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2005 the average year-on-year price increases were 2.8%, 3.3% and 3.66% respectively, with some areas showing healthy falls. Of course, we didn't hear anything about this at the time. The latest edition of the ESPC news has this year's Q2 figures, and we're back to 15-20% increases in some areas (15% in Marchmont, 19.8% in the city centre, and even more in some of the "traditionally more affordable areas": 21.7% in Gorgie/Dalry and > 31% in West Pilton). They also say "the average premiums being achieved on properties marketed at offers over in Edinburgh have risen to over 28%".

Don't you just love these people so much?

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That's all well and good, but a property is only worth what someone is prepared to pay. In your last example, if someone offered £110k on offers over and nobody else is interested, why would it sell for more if they put it on the market for £125 fp? Surely the same person would probably be the only person interested, and could over £110k again?

That would/will be true in a buyers market. We haven't seen one of them for ten years though, (and back then a flat in Gorgie was £25-30,000, compared to £125-130,000 now).

As it is, so many people are disillusioned with the offers over system that if something comes onto the market FP, there's likely to be a number of people who'll be interested simply because they know the price and don't have to get involved in OO. But basically you're right. If we get to a point where there are masses of FP, they'll stick and have to accept lower than they want or not sell, the same as the English system. Bring it on...

(Of course, if an EA thought it was only worth or would only get £110K, they'd start off putting it on at OO £85-90K. It's a stupid system...)

Edited by Fergie

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If house prices on average have risen by 50% and some haven't risen at all then there must be many out there that have gone up by 100% or similar in a year to even it out. This is simply not true.

You may or may not be correct i don't know. However it strikes me that indexes and newspaper reports based on EA surveys are probably more accurate than the observations of individuals. Imagine if the Scotsman said prices were down 5% MOM - this site would attach enormous credibility to it - if not for its integrity, but as the last VI in Scotland giving up the ghost. I guess where i come from is trying to look through the spin and the rant and the wishful thinking.

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You may or may not be correct i don't know. However it strikes me that indexes and newspaper reports based on EA surveys are probably more accurate than the observations of individuals. Imagine if the Scotsman said prices were down 5% MOM - this site would attach enormous credibility to it - if not for its integrity, but as the last VI in Scotland giving up the ghost. I guess where i come from is trying to look through the spin and the rant and the wishful thinking.

You reckon.........................

When was the last EA you heard telling people that ANY new 2 bedroom flats in Edinburgh had fallen in price over the last 4 years...

An individual like me has no vested interest in this. I am not a homeowner and I am not even sure if I ever want to own a house. I just find the whole 'property' situation interesting.

An EA however has a MASSIVE vested interest in this.

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