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zinny01

Relatively New To Hpc.co.uk

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From entering the real world in 1997 from University I can't think of a time when the world financial markets sat on the edge of a cliff and dangled it's legs quite as much as this. Even after 9/11, even after the dot com bubble popping.

I just seem to have a feeling that the fundamentals have caught up with the "new paradigm" and there is a lot of reversion to take place in all aspects of finance.

Just wanted to get a gague from the more experienced posters, Bulls, Bears and Neithers.

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Guest wrongmove
Is this as bearish as it's ever been?

Yes, IMHO. The press have not been this bearish since 9/11.

The US falls and subprime debacle seem to have reminded everyone that property can go down, as well as up. Add in rising IRs in UK, and the bears are loudest at the moment. Let's hope it translates into reality for house prices, but not the general economy, over the coming months.

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I am a relatively new member - but some of the 'founder' members have said that it was very bearish in 2005.

There is always a regular stream of bearish news (as to be expected) on HPC but recently it has got really exciting. Its such a bearfest that there's no need for RB to spin anything anymore ;)

"Q3 2007 - this is when the real fun and games begin" ;)

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There is something in the human psyche that is attracted to ‘doom’ scenarios; older bears that I know have predicted an economic breakdown since the 1980s, I’d admit that it looks like the Anglo Saxon counties have over indulged on credit but I’m sure the banks knew what they were doing and would not allow it to get so extreme as to threaten their own survival.

I think we will see house prices slowly come down in value year after year for many years to come.

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Easily as bearish as I can remember, I was reading for about 6 months before I started posting. There are less bulls around, and an overload of bear stories. I am actually amazed at the change of sentiment in the main stream press in the last 3 months.

Phoney

Edited by PhoneyMcRingRing

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Guest Cletus VanDamme
There is something in the human psyche that is attracted to ‘doom’ scenarios; older bears that I know have predicted an economic breakdown since the 1980s.

My dad used to work with a guy in the 60s who was saying another depression was just around the corner!

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When I was involved in a christian youth group for a few years in my teens, the more senior god-botherers used to say that Christ's second coming would be preceded by a collapse in the world's economic systems etc. So there.

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When I was involved in a christian youth group for a few years in my teens, the more senior god-botherers used to say that Christ's second coming would be preceded by a collapse in the world's economic systems etc. So there.

That's because the last book of the bible 'Revelations' describes this scenario albeit in a cryptic way. Prior to the second coming Revelations describes, amongst other things, Babylon (Iraq?) splitting into 3, an earthquake of the kind never seen before (Tsunami?), the draining of the Euphrates (Saddam? Bechtel?), increasing lawlessness, and a system of paying for goods that involves the head or right hand (cashless society? RFID's?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babylon

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=15451...ctionid=3510203

http://earthshots.usgs.gov/Iraq/Iraq

http://www.newswithviews.com/Cumbey/constance7.htm

I'm no christian, I alternate between agnosticsm and atheism, but revelations fascinates me enough that I have visited the cave of revelations in Patmos.

Edited by Bushy Tail

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Guest grumpy-old-man

this feels & looks a whole lot different to 2005 imo.

Look to the financial markets not just housing. :ph34r:

I don't have enough time in the day now to browse all these bearish posts, I have to pick which ones now. ;)

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* Subprime/CDO about to implode

* HPI into reverse in USA, Ireland, France, Spain and probably a few other countries too

* IRs rising 4 times in the past 9 months and looking set to go up at least once more

* Rising global IRs

* Many bull predictions appearing to be wrong on the fundamentals - however, the markets still seem remarkably positive

* Oil price back up to last years highs with no particular political stimulus

* Lots of geo-political tensions barely hidden

* And, IMHO, the big one, signs that the carry trade may begin to unwind with a hike in BoJ rates in September

That would seem to be quite a bit of bearish news.

I'd say the bulls are relying on sentiment where as the bears have the fundamentals. How long it will take for these to reconcile is another matter

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That's because the last book of the bible 'Revelations' describes this scenario albeit in a cryptic way. Prior to the second coming Revelations describes, amongst other things, Babylon (Iraq?) splitting into 3, an earthquake of the kind never seen before (Tsunami?), the draining of the Euphrates (Saddam? Bechtel?), increasing lawlessness, and a system of paying for goods that involves the head or right hand (cashless society? RFID's?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babylon

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=15451...ctionid=3510203

http://earthshots.usgs.gov/Iraq/Iraq

http://www.newswithviews.com/Cumbey/constance7.htm

I'm no christian, I alternate between agnosticsm and atheism, but revelations fascinates me enough that I have visited the cave of revelations in Patmos.

Cripes, that'll be it then. Yes there's a lifetime's work deciphering what could have been meant by that particular book.

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That's because the last book of the bible 'Revelations' describes this scenario albeit in a cryptic way. Prior to the second coming Revelations describes, amongst other things, Babylon (Iraq?) splitting into 3, an earthquake of the kind never seen before (Tsunami?), the draining of the Euphrates (Saddam? Bechtel?), increasing lawlessness, and a system of paying for goods that involves the head or right hand (cashless society? RFID's?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babylon

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=15451...ctionid=3510203

http://earthshots.usgs.gov/Iraq/Iraq

http://www.newswithviews.com/Cumbey/constance7.htm

I'm no christian, I alternate between agnosticsm and atheism, but revelations fascinates me enough that I have visited the cave of revelations in Patmos.

How can you alternate between agnosticsm and atheism and believe such twaddle!

No one knows the future it hasnt happened yet! All we know is what might happened based on the past and the current climate! For instance if I said there was going to be a major hurricane in the US and blow me down in 10yrs time there was one... does that make me a prophet.

Funny... its just like saying there will be a house price crash in 2000.... eventually you will be right (just 7 years later!) <_<

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Guest Popalot
From entering the real world in 1997 from University I can't think of a time when the world financial markets sat on the edge of a cliff and dangled it's legs quite as much as this. Even after 9/11, even after the dot com bubble popping.

I just seem to have a feeling that the fundamentals have caught up with the "new paradigm" and there is a lot of reversion to take place in all aspects of finance.

Just wanted to get a gague from the more experienced posters, Bulls, Bears and Neithers.

You are 100% right. However what is keeping things going IMHO is a new level of arrogance and denial amongst the financial world. This has been fuelled further by their soaring wealth. Nowadays it is perfectly OK to lie blatantly to someone's face and that is what they are doing, in the banks, in congress you name it....

Even five years ago people were not so brazen. we have the crash protection team, the people with their hands on the media's throats (that is why the bearishness is so amazing, the media have finally decided to break out). If the Asian markets had slightly more influence they would have triggered it by now - other cultures (ie non anglo-saxon US, UK, Aus) respond to the appalling data in a more human way.

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