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dude wheres my house

I Thought It Was All Contained

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and dropped against the yen on speculation losses on debt backed by subprime mortgages will spread.

The U.S. currency also dropped as signs a housing slump will deepen may prompt traders to increase bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Shares in Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's largest securities firm, slumped after Deutsche Bank AG said there is concern earnings may be eroded by losses related to loans to U.S. homeowners with poor credit histories.

``The bias is leaning toward dollar selling,'' said Takeshi Tokita, vice president of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo. ``Subprime loan defaults are a deep- rooted problem. People in Europe entering the currency market are likely to reduce risky bets on dollar gains.''

Subprime mortgage delinquencies surged to a 10-year high in the world's biggest economy this year. Moody's Investors Service said yesterday it may cut ratings on $5 billion of collateralized debt obligations. Moody's this week also downgraded ratings of bonds backed by loans to homeowners with poor credit histories, which may increase losses at brokers and hedge funds that made wrong-way bets on the debt.

Japan's central bank said today the outlook for the economy and prices broadly matches the April forecasts it made in its semi-annual report published the same month. The bank also left its overall monthly assessment of the economy unchanged.

The governor may raise rates in August, when a report on gross domestic product will help policy makers assess the economy. Of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 21 said the central bank will raise the key rate to 0.75 percent next month and eight said it will act in September. Three of the remaining five economists predicted October, one said November and the other said the rate will stay at 0.5 percent this year.

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US rates going up is bad. US rates going down is bad.

Bernanke had better watch out; the US thinks it's happy with a falling dollar but they might punt it off the ledge of no return. A bit of bad weather now and a few crops in danger and we could be looking at a great depression very soon indeed.

These people simply to refuse to deal with reality, for their business is naught but plunder.

They are so arrogant they think the US is impregnable. We may even see people dumping Treasuries on the grounds that they're worried about getting their money back. If they think they can lower rates by simply announcing such a thing they might find the market disagrees.

And China and Japan have a whole lot of Treasuries burning a hole in their reserves.

The world economy is starting to look like that old film of a suspension bridge twisting this way and that under pressure from the weather.

Nitwit pundits will continue to 'be surprised' that things are looking 'worse than expected'. And later they'll pretend they, of course, all saw it coming and were simply trying to help by 'calming' the market.

Over here Gordo has just put the official seal of approval on an almighty crash by not trying to cool the market.

It looks like we all get the privilege of paying for other people's 25-year fixed-rate reality buster. Is the government going to subsidise banks? This is where everyone else gets to find out that Gordo has hardly a clue. He glided on waves of deflation from Asia and thought it was something to do with his decisions.

That Nationwide propagandist was on Channel 4 news yesterday but Jon Snow isn't hip to what's going on yet. Give him a month or two to get with it and we might actually see some pertinent questions being asked of these people. When asked about 25-year fixes she bragged that her company had introduced such a product "and may do again". Mr. Snow seemed to miss the point that they withdrew the mortgage (although the up-front costs were theft) and I'd bet the house they won't re-introduce such a thing unless the rest of us subsidize it. 25-year fixed? What d'ya reckon the risk premium on such a thing might be? In five years rates could easily be at 12-15% or more. Would the taxpayer have to pay half of all interest payments? Or will it just be the chosen ones again? The poor, policemen and nurses, council workers? Like the rest of us have nothing better to do than to work for nothing to support everyone else?

The smart money has already started to take flight. Banks will continue to piss easy money onto fools (here in the UK) but they'd better enjoy it because the crunch is almost upon us.

The next few weeks and months we'll see a few bounces here and there (in the yen carry and CDOs and corporate debt) and house prices will remain strong but the buy-to-letters are already (if they have half a brain) doing kaka in their pants and we can expect them to all be vying for top prices by October.

Then it'll crash. Buyers will disappear. I don't know how many crashes have to happen in this world for the professionals to remember that buyers disappear in a swiftly falling market. Bids are pulled as buyers worry about the falling knives and pianos.

The media, that has done so much to help inflate the economy, has turned. They will hound this story until it happens for everyone likes to think they 'predicted' it.

Why are people always surprised at financial contagion? It's quite simple. The big money trades on the big picture. In the Asian currency crash the big money looked at a map and saw there were other countries near Thailand.

Now the big money will look at debt and wonder whether one type of debt is different from another, then it will get out of it.

Basic commodities will seem 'real' and the money will chase them, thus adding to the self-propagating cycle of inflation. Interest rates will go higher; money will flee to the basics and so on and so on.

Now, I'd like to buy a three bedroom semi in Glasgow’s West end my man. I know that in early 2007 such a thing might cost between £250,000-£450,000 but that was in early 2007. That was two years ago. I have £185,000, an awful lot of money, burning a hole in my pocket and now that you don't want to pay a slimy estate agent you get to bargain with me. If you don't want it, I can wait, can you?

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Nitwit pundits will continue to 'be surprised' that things are looking 'worse than expected'. And later they'll pretend they, of course, all saw it coming and were simply trying to help by 'calming' the market.

:D

I have often wondered how many of them really know what is going on & how many are just following their leader, who is a nitwit. Surely they can't all be stoopid, mind you in this arena, you don't need much of a minority, to be a majority do you. ;)

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Don't worry. When the sh*t really hits the fan the CBs will flood the world with even more dosh. Wage inflation will let rip. Forget all the nonsense about the great levelling. When governments are faced with angry voters they'll do whatever it takes to help them.

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I am wondering how long those nations with large dollar reserves are going to wait whilst their reserves massively devalue... I am guessing someone like China or Russia is going to start moving out soon, and once they do, the impact is going to be mahussive! :blink:

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Don't worry. When the sh*t really hits the fan the CBs will flood the world with even more dosh. Wage inflation will let rip. Forget all the nonsense about the great levelling. When governments are faced with angry voters they'll do whatever it takes to help them.

If you believe that you're a fool. We've already got the worst balance of payments in history. Inflation is just not an option. If it happens, you can learn to shake 20% interest rates by the hand because otherwise our currency will be worth feck all.

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If you believe that you're a fool. We've already got the worst balance of payments in history. Inflation is just not an option. If it happens, you can learn to shake 20% interest rates by the hand because otherwise our currency will be worth feck all.

I do hope so. 20% is a good start. I've no debts - what do I care. I suppose we've never had sky high interest rates in the past ? Oh I forgot, they've licked inflation - it's all different this time.

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Sub prime in the UK?

Is that a song? Only a couple of months ago I was reading something published by the council of mortgage lenders proclaiming that there was no such thing as sub-prime in the UK.

This tells us not that they were simply lying but that they don't know what it is where it is or even how to define it.

That means that sub-prime will emerge 'from the deep' like some great monster.

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That means that sub-prime will emerge 'from the deep' like some great monster.

Love the analogy.

And the thought is so funny it's sad (or do I mean so sad it's funny?):

Suddenly the financial world will discover the existence of subprime lending right here in the UK.

They couldn't possibly have known it was lurking!

It will be an unxpected revelation!

Nobody except a few thousand loonies (thanks dstars) on a website about houses suspected such a thing could be possible!

:(:lol:

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Sub prime in the UK?

Is that a song? Only a couple of months ago I was reading something published by the council of mortgage lenders proclaiming that there was no such thing as sub-prime in the UK.

This tells us not that they were simply lying but that they don't know what it is where it is or even how to define it.

That means that sub-prime will emerge 'from the deep' like some great monster.

Indeed, many of their "members" were trolling these very boards singing that same song.

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That means that sub-prime will emerge 'from the deep' like some great monster.

Sub prime mortgages are priced in following manner: LIBOR + 3 or 4%.

Sub prime borrowers comming off rates that were fixed 2 years ago at say 5.99% (highish 2 yrs ago due to sub prime) will now emmerge into standard sub prime variable rates set at anything from 8 - 12%, AND THATS WITH MUCH BIGGER LOANS THAN IN CRASH 1.

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Love the analogy.

And the thought is so funny it's sad (or do I mean so sad it's funny?):

Suddenly the financial world will discover the existence of subprime lending right here in the UK.

They couldn't possibly have known it was lurking!

It will be an unxpected revelation!

Nobody except a few thousand loonies (thanks dstars) on a website about houses suspected such a thing could be possible!

:(:lol:

:lol::lol::lol: That made me chuckle! :D

Time to get those debts cleared, methinks!

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meanwhile, sub-prime to grow in the uk.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=reutersnew...;action=article

"Despite the argument that they have sophisticated underwriting models in place, UK subprime lenders should take the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis as a warning and ensure they are not overexposing themselves to highly risky loans," she said.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) recently accused subprime mortgage lenders and brokers of having insufficient checks in place to ensure their customers are able to repay loans, warning such practices may have wider ramifications
.

SI, 10 X income, 2 year low intro fixed--no shortage of subprime here. The FSA woke up too late I am afraid, the damage has been done and we are, as usual, lagging the US by about 6 months.

The pride an arrogance of our "experts" who say we are more sophisticated than the US markets is about to jump up and bite them in the a*rse.

All the poisons lying in the mud are finally hatching out.

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US rates going up is bad. US rates going down is bad.

Bernanke had better watch out; the US thinks it's happy with a falling dollar but they might punt it off the ledge of no return. A bit of bad weather now and a few crops in danger and we could be looking at a great depression very soon indeed.

These people simply to refuse to deal with reality, for their business is naught but plunder.

They are so arrogant they think the US is impregnable. We may even see people dumping Treasuries on the grounds that they're worried about getting their money back. If they think they can lower rates by simply announcing such a thing they might find the market disagrees.

And China and Japan have a whole lot of Treasuries burning a hole in their reserves.

The world economy is starting to look like that old film of a suspension bridge twisting this way and that under pressure from the weather.

Nitwit pundits will continue to 'be surprised' that things are looking 'worse than expected'. And later they'll pretend they, of course, all saw it coming and were simply trying to help by 'calming' the market.

Over here Gordo has just put the official seal of approval on an almighty crash by not trying to cool the market.

It looks like we all get the privilege of paying for other people's 25-year fixed-rate reality buster. Is the government going to subsidise banks? This is where everyone else gets to find out that Gordo has hardly a clue. He glided on waves of deflation from Asia and thought it was something to do with his decisions.

That Nationwide propagandist was on Channel 4 news yesterday but Jon Snow isn't hip to what's going on yet. Give him a month or two to get with it and we might actually see some pertinent questions being asked of these people. When asked about 25-year fixes she bragged that her company had introduced such a product "and may do again". Mr. Snow seemed to miss the point that they withdrew the mortgage (although the up-front costs were theft) and I'd bet the house they won't re-introduce such a thing unless the rest of us subsidize it. 25-year fixed? What d'ya reckon the risk premium on such a thing might be? In five years rates could easily be at 12-15% or more. Would the taxpayer have to pay half of all interest payments? Or will it just be the chosen ones again? The poor, policemen and nurses, council workers? Like the rest of us have nothing better to do than to work for nothing to support everyone else?

The smart money has already started to take flight. Banks will continue to piss easy money onto fools (here in the UK) but they'd better enjoy it because the crunch is almost upon us.

The next few weeks and months we'll see a few bounces here and there (in the yen carry and CDOs and corporate debt) and house prices will remain strong but the buy-to-letters are already (if they have half a brain) doing kaka in their pants and we can expect them to all be vying for top prices by October.

Then it'll crash. Buyers will disappear. I don't know how many crashes have to happen in this world for the professionals to remember that buyers disappear in a swiftly falling market. Bids are pulled as buyers worry about the falling knives and pianos.

The media, that has done so much to help inflate the economy, has turned. They will hound this story until it happens for everyone likes to think they 'predicted' it.

Why are people always surprised at financial contagion? It's quite simple. The big money trades on the big picture. In the Asian currency crash the big money looked at a map and saw there were other countries near Thailand.

Now the big money will look at debt and wonder whether one type of debt is different from another, then it will get out of it.

Basic commodities will seem 'real' and the money will chase them, thus adding to the self-propagating cycle of inflation. Interest rates will go higher; money will flee to the basics and so on and so on.

Now, I'd like to buy a three bedroom semi in Glasgow’s West end my man. I know that in early 2007 such a thing might cost between £250,000-£450,000 but that was in early 2007. That was two years ago. I have £185,000, an awful lot of money, burning a hole in my pocket and now that you don't want to pay a slimy estate agent you get to bargain with me. If you don't want it, I can wait, can you?

Nice... so worth a BUMP!!!!! ;)

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I do hope so. 20% is a good start. I've no debts - what do I care. I suppose we've never had sky high interest rates in the past ? Oh I forgot, they've licked inflation - it's all different this time.

You would have no job either and probably no food in your local Kwik Save.

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The cover for the following article on this site's home page points out foreclosures in the US are 58% sub prime, 42% prime:

see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

....heading needs revision...... "Prime and Sub Prime I Thought It Was All Contained"........ :unsure:

....the scenario here is rates have cork screwed upwards from the teaser discounts of two years ago ......and now many prime borrowers are suffering in the same way as the sub prime....... :(

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The cover for the following article on this site's home page points out foreclosures in the US are 58% sub prime, 42% prime:

see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

....heading needs revision...... "Prime and Sub Prime I Thought It Was All Contained"........ :unsure:

....the scenario here is rates have cork screwed upwards from the teaser discounts of two years ago ......and now many prime borrowers are suffering in the same way as the sub prime....... :(

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