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Housing Market Cooling Rapidly

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Just in case this doesnt make it onto the BLOG:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6293442.stm.

Looks like a rapid cooling of the market - and this before the latest rate rise - next few months could get interesting. Funnily enough the Times pretty much ignored this report - whereas usually it receives a good half page in the business section.

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The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said 10.6% more of its members saw a rise rather than a fall in house prices last month.

They're still reporting rises though. However, it is RICS. I wonder how long until more than half their members start reporting falls.

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6% IR in Aug/Sept and this puppy is toast. Lovely

I will have to put this on my sig - "Q3 2007 - this is when the real fun a games begin" ;)

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Something looks a bit dodgy with that article..

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said 10.6% more of its members saw a rise rather than a fall in house prices last month.

This was down from the 22.5% more who had reported an increase in May.

Are they saying that only 10.6% of member reported rises? Does that mean 89.4% reported drops/no increase?

Is this the spin view?

10.6% more - more than what?

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Something looks a bit dodgy with that article..

Are they saying that only 10.6% of member reported rises? Does that mean 89.4% reported drops/no increase?

Is this the spin view?

10.6% more - more than what?

10.6% more members saw a rise than saw a fall. which means out of every 100 members, 60.6 of them saw a rise, and 39.4 of them saw a fall.

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10.6% more members saw a rise than saw a fall. which means out of every 100 members, 60.6 of them saw a rise, and 39.4 of them saw a fall.

Hmm...according to my maths that's about 21.2% more.

So it would be 44.7% against 55.3%.

Stupid way of reporting it anyway - why not just give the %s so people can work it out for themselves. Spin spin spin

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10.6% more members saw a rise than saw a fall. which means out of every 100 members, 60.6 of them saw a rise, and 39.4 of them saw a fall.

Isn't it that out of every 100 members, 55.3 saw a rise, and 44.7 saw a fall? :huh:

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Do their figures include anyone who saw prices neither rise nor fall?

Yes.

These figures show a rapid cooling and let me repeat this data is based ont he period before IRs went up. Next months data should be interesting.

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Isn't it that out of every 100 members, 55.3 saw a rise, and 44.7 saw a fall? :huh:

You're right of course. I need a refresher in maths. Used to be quite good at it in school.

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Here is the article from RICS

http://www.rics.org/Property/Residentialpr...087_hms0607.htm

It could be an even smaller spread, if out of 100 surveyed 47 said they saw a decline then 10.6% above this is about 53, the wording is suitable ambigious, surprise, surprise.

Fall in buyer enquiries and rise in instructions...

Northern Ireland continues to lead the way as the peace premium remains a boost to price growth.

Haven't they just replaced the word speculative with peace ?

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10.6% more members saw a rise than saw a fall. which means out of every 100 members, 60.6 of them saw a rise, and 39.4 of them saw a fall.

We asked a hundred estate agents...

Why would anyone takes these figures seriously? Thinking about it, they might have some value as a relative index - "the number of estate agents who were still confident enough to claim prices were going up were...". I think it says little about actual prices though - are we to believe that they have a good measure of what's going on?

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Here is the article from RICS

http://www.rics.org/Property/Residentialpr...087_hms0607.htm

It could be an even smaller spread, if out of 100 surveyed 47 said they saw a decline then 10.6% above this is about 53, the wording is suitable ambigious, surprise, surprise.

Fall in buyer enquiries and rise in instructions...

If you read the report closely, it shows that nationally 26% reported rises, 60% no change and 15%, now if you consider no change to be a real fall, then the report should show -50%.

Also the nationaly figure is higher because of London and Scotland.

The following regions all reported falls for June.

Yorkshire & Humberside -8%

East Midlands -12%

West Midlands -5%

East Anglia 0%

Walses -5%

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