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As posted on News section, the comments here are a must read for bears. There is serious feeling and understanding of what has been going on out there. I think we may tend to underestimate the sheeple, once they think they have been taken for a ride (which they have) whoosh, the backlash is ferocious.

Today I think is a landmark - these front pages PLUS the S&P junk bond decision PLUS signs of Japanese wanting to address the carry trade.....OUCh....big time. Gordon, maybe the wee house in Kircaldy would be a nice place to retire to...by Christmas. :lol:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...e#StartComments

As posted on News section, the comments here are a must read for bears. There is serious feeling and understanding of what has been going on out there. I think we may tend to underestimate the sheeple, once they think they have been taken for a ride (which they have) whoosh, the backlash is ferocious.

Today I think is a landmark - these front pages PLUS the S&P junk bond decision PLUS signs of Japanese wanting to address the carry trade.....OUCh....big time. Gordon, maybe the wee house in Kircaldy would be a nice place to retire to...by Christmas. :lol:

Its amazing how the press has turned. Before and even during the last crash if you read the newspapers you thought there wasn't a problem e.g prices are falling slightly but forcasted to be up 20% next year. We had that for 5/6 years when prices were falling all the time. It takes years of confidence to get people back into the housing market once the doom starts. I think we have had 5 years of bad news rolled into one week.

So many people got burnt last time even more will this time especialy those that are heavily leveridged. It was not uncommn for someone to have a house on the market for 5 years with a couple of viewings.

Enjoy the crash BRING IT ON

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Sentiment has changed a fair bit. It was only about 2 years ago that when I suggested to a group of friends that prices might fall, I wasn't just regarded as wrong, but mentally ill.

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Its amazing how the press has turned. Before and even during the last crash if you read the newspapers you thought there wasn't a problem e.g prices are falling slightly but forcasted to be up 20% next year. We had that for 5/6 years when prices were falling all the time. It takes years of confidence to get people back into the housing market once the doom starts. I think we have had 5 years of bad news rolled into one week.

So many people got burnt last time even more will this time especialy those that are heavily leveridged. It was not uncommn for someone to have a house on the market for 5 years with a couple of viewings.

Enjoy the crash BRING IT ON

The difference is the press are saying it now, but prices are on the whole not going down yet........

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I think the difference this time is the internet and particularly site like this, full of people who realise it can' go on.

I saw it in 2004 then interest rates were dropped, i was laughed at for suggesting prices were too high and couldn't stay like it forever.

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Average salary is 35k? That's what a teacher earns after 8 years or a tube driver earns after 6 weeks.

I can't say I know many earning that figure.

35K Average Salary is a total lie. More like 22k where I stay.

Which means, in order to afford an average home in 2007, you need to borrow 5 and a half times your salary.

Oh dear - what a total fu*king mess. :rolleyes:

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35K Average Salary is a total lie. More like 22k where I stay.

Which means, in order to afford an average home in 2007, you need to borrow 5 and a half times your salary.

Oh dear - what a total fu*king mess. :rolleyes:

More like your average celery is 35p. :rolleyes: Do you think they include job seekers in that figure, after all they don't class them as unemployed.

If they really think average is 35k they have completely lost touch with this country. That said if it is 35k there are people out there who earn obscene amounts of money to drive up the average, in which case they should be ashamed of themselves.

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35K Average Salary is a total lie. More like 22k where I stay.

That's 35k _AVERAGE FTB SALARY_.... because you can't afford to buy anything anywhere on a salary much lower than that.

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The difference is the press are saying it now, but prices are on the whole not going down yet........

I bought a house in 1989 and the value of it went in half by 1996. But this never showed up in any figures anywhere, I had it on the market in 1992 for what i bought it for, but it just never sold. so asking price stats will have never reflected any change in it's value, and also no change to selling price stats as it never sold. something to think about. things are often worse than stats show.

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More like your average celery is 35p. :rolleyes: Do you think they include job seekers in that figure, after all they don't class them as unemployed.

If they really think average is 35k they have completely lost touch with this country. That said if it is 35k there are people out there who earn obscene amounts of money to drive up the average, in which case they should be ashamed of themselves.

have you had a look at public sector and charity salaries lately ?

they would laugh at you if you offered them a measly 35k.

http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/

Edited by jimmyjazz

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I bought a house in 1989 and the value of it went in half by 1996. But this never showed up in any figures anywhere, I had it on the market in 1992 for what i bought it for, but it just never sold. so asking price stats will have never reflected any change in it's value, and also no change to selling price stats as it never sold. something to think about. things are often worse than stats show.

Sorry, I just won't be happy until the nation's streets run 6ft deep with the blood of BTLers, mortgage brokers and mortgage backed security bankers.

edit: well OK, falls of 50% would probably be enough on reflection.

Edited by Smell the Fear

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So the average ftb has to earn much much more than the average person just to afford a typical ftb property, ie a 1 bed or studio flat.

A lot of those replying to the daily mail dont seem to have understood that.

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I like:

"If house prices fall by 10%, even those who only bought 2 years ago and ignored the doom-mongers :lol: back then will still have a house worth more than when they bought it".

- Lawrence Dimery, London :blink:

Nice one Lawrence. What if they fall by 30, 40, 50 or 60% then?

I also love the idiot who argues that it isn't possible to lie about your income to get a bigger mortgage as he obviously hasn't heard of self-certification.

Other than that though there are lots and lots of switched on bears out there. Very impressive stuff. ;)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Average salary is 35k? That's what a teacher earns after 8 years or a tube driver earns after 6 weeks.

I can't say I know many earning that figure.

that sentence sums up the types of problems the UK is facing imo.

Now, either the teacher is underpaid or the tube driver is overpaid, which one is it ?

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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The soaring prices have put an unprecedented burden on parents to help their children get on to the property ladder, with the average price paid by a first-time buyer, typically aged 29, nearly £155,000. The average deposit is £12,000 - much more than they could be expected to have saved up.

£155,000 - £12000 = £143,000

So the average multiple apparently is 3.37 which means:

143,000/3.37 = £42,433

And that's average wage of a 29 year old FTB £42,4333.

I think I need to work a lot harder!

Something isn't right, if someone's earning that kind of money 12 k is easy to save up!

Edited by Sinking Feeling

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http://www.independent.co.uk/

MORTGAGE MADNESS

MORTGAGE MISERY

MORTGAGE MELT DOWN

makes me a very happy bear.

That is a fantastic headline. Would love to have heard what the yuppies were saying about this in the offices around the country. Wait until headlines like this start appearing on the front page of the Sun. :rolleyes:

Its a pity the article isnt up to the same quality:

But talk of an imminent housing crash is over-cooked

Economically, Britain is also much more stable today than it was 15 years ago. GDP is growing ahead of trend, unemployment is low and the early signs are that inflation is finally beginning to respond to the string of recent interest rate rises - heading back towards its target of 2 per cent. Things were very different at the start of the 1990s, and economic conditions will have to deteriorate significantly before we can expect the same kind of housing crash as we saw then.

The person writing this obviously didnt see the headline on the paper :lol:

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£155,000 - £12000 = £143,000

So the average multiple apparently is 3.37 which means:

143,000/3.37 = £42,433

And that's average wage of a 29 year old FTB £42,4333.

I think I need to work a lot harder!

Something isn't right, if someone's earning that kind of money 12 k is easy to save up!

The earnings aren't per person but rather joint, age I'd guess is also based on averaging the combined ages of all applicants. So your 42k becomes £21k per person for a couple, which is IMHO a far more realistic wage for the mythical 29 year ago FTB.

But yes 42k household earnings should enable somebody to save 10k to 20k as a deposit over say 5 years.

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The earnings aren't per person but rather joint, age I'd guess is also based on averaging the combined ages of all applicants. So your 42k becomes £21k per person for a couple, which is IMHO a far more realistic wage for the mythical 29 year ago FTB.

But yes 42k household earnings should enable somebody to save 10k to 20k as a deposit over say 5 years.

But that isn't the case for the previous ones. What they should be quoting if that's the case is 6.74 x income. It's not as though there haven't always been two people working in many families!

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But that isn't the case for the previous ones. What they should be quoting if that's the case is 6.74 x income. It's not as though there haven't always been two people working in many families!

CML don't break out joint applications from sole, neither do they separate joint where the second income was used within the affordability calculation from joint with second income ignored. Even 20 years ago I'd wager a fair few joint applications where decided on the basis of main earnings only, the current market will need both incomes to counted for the sums to work. This switch whilst apparently slight does hide a larger phenomenon more household income is being used to service mortgages and less slack against financial shock exists than previously.

No what they are really quoting is a multiple of household earnings to mortgage not individual earnings to mortgage.

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CML don't break out joint applications from sole, neither do they separate joint where the second income was used within the affordability calculation from joint with second income ignored. Even 20 years ago I'd wager a fair few joint applications where decided on the basis of main earnings only, the current market will need both incomes to counted for the sums to work. This switch whilst apparently slight does hide a larger phenomenon more household income is being used to service mortgages and less slack against financial shock exists than previously.

No what they are really quoting is a multiple of household earnings to mortgage not individual earnings to mortgage.

We should never have put our women to work to the extent that we have...... it is now accepted fact that the CIA played some part in the 60's liberation of women (which increasingly saw women put to work) through magazines like Ms Magazine. Why tax Daddy when you can tax Mummy as well?

State schools don't make good parents. Young kids need MUM AT HOME. They've broken up our families.

[doesn't duck or hide behind sofa, rather grabs his crotch and says you wanna piece of this?]

Edited by Bushy Tail

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On that Independent front page, note the 'Property: 28-page supplement' tag in the bottom right. So on the front page we have prophecies of HPC doom, but open up the paper and doubtless you'll find 28 glossy pages of Phil & Kirstie-type VI bovine excreta, attempting to talk up HPs. Sigh...

Edited by The Ayatollah Bugheri

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...e#StartComments

As posted on News section, the comments here are a must read for bears. There is serious feeling and understanding of what has been going on out there. I think we may tend to underestimate the sheeple, once they think they have been taken for a ride (which they have) whoosh, the backlash is ferocious.

Today I think is a landmark - these front pages PLUS the S&P junk bond decision PLUS signs of Japanese wanting to address the carry trade.....OUCh....big time. Gordon, maybe the wee house in Kircaldy would be a nice place to retire to...by Christmas. :lol:

A very good article

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