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If There Is A Recession....

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If we have a recession to I was wondering who will be the winners and losers. The way I see it in a global economy nobody wins. China and India rely (in particular India) on the UK and US for outsourced work, if companies start hitting the wall then these countries will lose out. I mean how much of work in Mumbai and Banglore is produced for indian companies, I bet its a tiny fraction with the majority for the US and UK

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A Recession is a bad thing, it simply astounds me that people, namely from this site, can actually wish it would happen so they can be all smug and wallow in people's misery.

While I believe that's where we are heading I am certainly not looking forward to seeing people who are important to me suffer due to the sheer greed and ignorance of a minority.

If people hope for a recession to make money, then they are no better than the property speculators that have caused this bubble and pending recession.

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If people hope for a recession to make money, then they are no better than the property speculators that have caused this bubble and pending recession.

I agree. But I imagine that most people on this site just wish that properties return to reasonable prices and maybe the misfortune of the BTL category, but there's nothing immoral or wrong in it, is it?

:lol:

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Guest The_Oldie
A Recession is a bad thing, it simply astounds me that people, namely from this site, can actually wish it would happen so they can be all smug and wallow in people's misery.

While I believe that's where we are heading I am certainly not looking forward to seeing people who are important to me suffer due to the sheer greed and ignorance of a minority.

If people hope for a recession to make money, then they are no better than the property speculators that have caused this bubble and pending recession.

Wishing for a recession is not going to make it happen.

I think that most of the posters here who are predicting a recession are not hoping for one, rather trying to arrange their affairs to cope as best as possible should one occur.

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Wishing for a recession is not going to make it happen.

I think that most of the posters here who are predicting a recession are not hoping for one, rather trying to arrange their affairs to cope as best as possible should one occur.

I agree I dont think anyone really wants a recession but the best thing to do is to try and get rid of as much debt as you can, so you can try and weather the storm. either that or just declare bankruptcy.........

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Oil and gas will be our undoing. The catalyst.

Simmons uses the anlogy of the wing mirror on a car to indicate how we don't know when we are at peak until we are past peak or until it's in our rear view mirror. For example, we weren't sure that the North Sea had peaked in 1998, but by 1999 and 2000, declining outputs confirmed that the North Sea had peaked. Gharwar, Cantarell, and Burgan are all believed to be at peak (I think Burgan has been officially declared to be at peak) but confirmation will come with those all important yearly output totals.

There are many intelligent and credible researchers who believe that it's a depression we face, not a recession. We cannot sustain our way of life sans oil and gas. Alternatives will give us a life, but not the life we have become used to via oil and gas.

Air travel will be the first casualty.

Edited by Bushy Tail

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Some of the posts/posters on here make that statement very hard to believe.

Economies are cyclical. Do want a small recession now, or keep postponing it and have a depression instead?

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Some of the posts/posters on here make that statement very hard to believe.

well i guess they are not really thinking it through as everone will be affected, like I said we are in a global economy now. I cant think of any real recession proof jobs, the NHS were quite happy to cut nursing staff when they needed, anyone can be let go now...

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Guest Skint Academic

Alternatively you can take the view that the longer you extend the 'boom' the more unbalanced the economy and society becomes and the worse the after-effects. It's like getting continually getting more drunk in order to avoid the inevitable hangover. It's best to just get it over and done with rather than make it worse. Some of us are also trying to hoard a nice supply of headache tablets for when it does hit!

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Some of the posts/posters on here make that statement very hard to believe.

Indeed. I for one am all for a good recession. Everyone I know will be okay, but will no doubt feel a bit less rich. It will be time for those who have been careful and saved to benefit. The bottom line is that the UK needs a recession. It will be like a purge of all things useless and overpriced. Okay so people will suffer. People are suffering now though.

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well i guess they are not really thinking it through as everone will be affected, like I said we are in a global economy now. I cant think of any real recession proof jobs, the NHS were quite happy to cut nursing staff when they needed, anyone can be let go now...

Oil industry?

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Guest pioneer31
While I believe that's where we are heading I am certainly not looking forward to seeing people who are important to me suffer due to the sheer greed and ignorance of a minority.

so there are no FTB's in your family then?

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Guest pioneer31
I can't actually think of any situation where making money is not achieved without someone else losing out - by definition money gained is lost somewhere else.

Is there one?

As for 'hoping' for a recession, acknowledging that it's likely to happen and taking measures to avoid your own exposure to it is not the same as 'wishing' for it.

Buckers

That is precisely the case in the housing market - BTL/property Developers 'profit' = FTB's lifelong debt and misery

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it's not a case of hoping for a recession, it's a case of knowing that one is inevitable and preparing oneself accordingly.

yes it might involve some gloating if it happens but it's not like i'm not trying to tell as many people as possible what's going to happen so they can protect themselves.

it's the idiots who believe that booms can go on forever (e.g. the producers of every property tv show since 05) who are the ones that are doing something morally bad.

edit: greedy idiots.

Edited by nowthenagain

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If we have a recession to I was wondering who will be the winners and losers. The way I see it in a global economy nobody wins. China and India rely (in particular India) on the UK and US for outsourced work, if companies start hitting the wall then these countries will lose out. I mean how much of work in Mumbai and Banglore is produced for indian companies, I bet its a tiny fraction with the majority for the US and UK

In a recession,those who have BORROWED extensively will lose the most.

followed by those in professions that require said borrowed money to exist.

It's important to understand how the system works,it's very nice to see you have thought of the global angle.You haven't thought of the overseas consumption bit yet.....these guys aren't there to be our servants,they would like a chance to get all the gizmo's we take for granted....and when a recession ensues over here our currency weakens,giving them more buying power......synchronising the two to overlap smoothly is the tricky bit.

Don't be annoyed too much at the chinese,they have a right to buy the stuff they make.If you have saved and have a good skill and/or recession proof job,then you'll be ok.Be prepared for some real social turmoil when the recession kicks in....it will be the same riot situation as in 1979-80,1991-92.....probably the former because of the level of immigration.

Edited by oracle

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If we have a recession to I was wondering who will be the winners and losers. The way I see it in a global economy nobody wins. China and India rely (in particular India) on the UK and US for outsourced work, if companies start hitting the wall then these countries will lose out. I mean how much of work in Mumbai and Banglore is produced for indian companies, I bet its a tiny fraction with the majority for the US and UK

I agree that a global recession would have a severe impact on countries such as China and India but I also think that it will ultimately hasten the shift of the balance of economic power to these countries. Although they still rely heavily on exporting to the west, there is a growing domestic market in these countries and the Chinese in particular, are investing heavily in the future.

What have we done to invest the proceeds of this 'miracle' economy for the long term future of our country? Has the UK invested in a world class education system, a durable and efficient infrastructure or research and development?

Nope. The UK 'invested' in overpriced houses, plasma TVs and football shirts.

Recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, it's the ability to ride them out that counts and I don't think we have that anymore.

No one should be wishing for a recession, but like others have said, if you can see it coming you might be able to do something about it.

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I just don't understand these people with houses - they earn imaginary money by sitting in their houses whilst they appreciate in imaginary value, then they spend this imaginary money in exchange for a lifetime of debt, then they complain when that imaginary money disapears from whence it came. Its not as if they have done any work to deserve the increase in value is it?

What gives here? - as they say easy come easy go.

Look on the bright side - your children will be able to afford a roof over their heads as opposed to living with you for the rest of their lives (that is if you can afford to have children).

HAL

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Nope. The UK 'invested' in overpriced houses, plasma TVs and football shirts.

:lol:

Darling to Brown: Mr Brown, a big recession could be avoided with one or two helicopter drops for the most unlucky of the thousands of greedy T Wats out there.

Brown to Darling: You're joking aren't you? They’ve all kitted their kids out with the latest Chelsea shirts...I don't think we have enough in the treasury!

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so there are no FTB's in your family then?

Do you honestly think that a potential FTB who can't afford a property today is going to find it easy to do so when unemployment and interest rates are soaring, lending criteria are tightened and they are worried about their own jobs? Anyone in a job is likely to find taxes rocketing to pay for the revenue lost through unemployment and the welfare payments to those huge numbers of unemployed.

The higher and interest rates alone will take away a lot of the affordability from lower headline houseprices. If banks start tightening criteria and demanding large deposits and 'safe' jobs before lending money, many will find themselves unable to meet those conditions and unable to take advantage of low prices.

And if you're on the dole and trying to feed your family on benefits - a position that many currently 'well-off' people might find themselves in, well then it doesn't matter if house prices are dirt cheap as you won't be buying one.

Really, anyone actually cheering on a steep recession or looking forward to it is a plonker of the highest grade. There's more to affording a house than the headline price. It's going to hurt an awful lot of people, not just the greedy idiots who overstretched themsevles financially.

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If we have a recession to I was wondering who will be the winners and losers. The way I see it in a global economy nobody wins. China and India rely (in particular India) on the UK and US for outsourced work, if companies start hitting the wall then these countries will lose out. I mean how much of work in Mumbai and Banglore is produced for indian companies, I bet its a tiny fraction with the majority for the US and UK

Actually, one interesting development I read recently is that experienced teachers from India are selling on-line tuition to under achievers in the UK/US. Apparently it's rather popular. Considerably cheaper than a trad boarding school and the pupils like it too as it fits in with their way of operating (on-line, facebook, et al). Do not underestimate web 2.0

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Do you honestly think that a potential FTB who can't afford a property today is going to find it easy to do so when unemployment and interest rates are soaring, lending criteria are tightened and they are worried about their own jobs? Anyone in a job is likely to find taxes rocketing to pay for the revenue lost through unemployment and the welfare payments to those huge numbers of unemployed.

The higher and interest rates alone will take away a lot of the affordability from lower headline houseprices. If banks start tightening criteria and demanding large deposits and 'safe' jobs before lending money, many will find themselves unable to meet those conditions and unable to take advantage of low prices.

And if you're on the dole and trying to feed your family on benefits - a position that many currently 'well-off' people might find themselves in, well then it doesn't matter if house prices are dirt cheap as you won't be buying one.

Really, anyone actually cheering on a steep recession or looking forward to it is a plonker of the highest grade. There's more to affording a house than the headline price. It's going to hurt an awful lot of people, not just the greedy idiots who overstretched themsevles financially.

Come the recession there'll be the same number of houses and the same number of people competing for them. On average a recession is going to hurt the priced out less than the pricers out, so as far as acquiring a home is concerned it's all good news for the former. So bring it on.

Edited by evictee

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Do you honestly think that a potential FTB who can't afford a property today is going to find it easy to do so when unemployment and interest rates are soaring, lending criteria are tightened and they are worried about their own jobs

Surely that's the whole trick. Buy the house, go unemployed and let the suckers buy you the house (or at least pay the interest for you). Maybe MEW a bit so you have plenty of Champagne as it all unfolds.

Don't understand the connection between HPC/recession though. A crash is the only way to prevent a recession, otherwise all our earnings will just go on housing leaving no spending for shops/businesses to survive?

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