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Guest The_Oldie

Nationwide Q2 Regional Report

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Guest The_Oldie

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2007.pdf

• All UK regions see house prices grow in second quarter, but pace of growth is slowing

• Prices in parts of Northern Ireland are now on a par with London, but growth has

dropped from the all-time record high of the first quarter

• Average house price for first-time buyers in London approaching £250,000

• As in the first quarter, prices grew faster in the South of England than in the North

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2007.pdf

• All UK regions see house prices grow in second quarter, but pace of growth is slowing

• Prices in parts of Northern Ireland are now on a par with London, but growth has

dropped from the all-time record high of the first quarter

• Average house price for first-time buyers in London approaching £250,000

• As in the first quarter, prices grew faster in the South of England than in the North

Frankly there is something wrong. I just can't get over the figures. Doing my head in.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2007.pdf

• All UK regions see house prices grow in second quarter, but pace of growth is slowing

• Prices in parts of Northern Ireland are now on a par with London, but growth has

dropped from the all-time record high of the first quarter

• Average house price for first-time buyers in London approaching £250,000

• As in the first quarter, prices grew faster in the South of England than in the North

So much for Q1/Q2 07 eh?

Sentiment's changed for sure, but we know that prices are sticky downwards. No QoQ falls until next year (as I said 18 months ago).

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So much for Q1/Q2 07 eh?

Sentiment's changed for sure, but we know that prices are sticky downwards. No QoQ falls until next year (as I said 18 months ago).

this is f.....g ridiculous; BBC LR data from Jan to Mar 2007 show decline, but NW says everything goes up .....

any idea????

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Guest The_Oldie
So much for Q1/Q2 07 eh?

Sentiment's changed for sure, but we know that prices are sticky downwards. No QoQ falls until next year (as I said 18 months ago).

I think, that with hindsight, we will look back and say that the market turned in 2007. But I agree that QoQ falls will not be reported by the lenders until next year.

I'm certainly not expecting to buy back in for a few years yet.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

anomalies in the stats.

I have said it a few times now, don't be fooled, they WILL be revised down at a later date. :ph34r:

edit - but untill then I will be forced to take a lot of stick from the Bulls & bullish neithers. :D

Q1 2007. B):D don't be fooled.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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this is f.....g ridiculous; BBC LR data from Jan to Mar 2007 show decline, but NW says everything goes up .....

any idea????

I've got an idea, there is no IR decision due, hence prices are going up (and so say all of us). If there was a rate decision due, it would all be doom and gloom...

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AFAIK these figures are purely an aggregate of properties actually sold: they don't reflect the increasing numbers of properties which aren't shifting, where a seller is having to lower an asking price or all the things which usually happen as the precursor to actual price falls. These are all happening in my neck of the woods.

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Sorry, but does anyone actually believe that figures provided by lenders would actually be credable? They're hardly likely to release firgures that scream please don't get a mortgage because the market is screwed! Only the LR figures would carry any worth, end even then you have to hope theres no massaging of the data going on.

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The fact is that house prices are going up still.

It might give you a moments comfort to join the crowd and announce that the crash is here, but as you well know by the end of the day when you drive home and see all the sold signs you are kidding nobody except yourself.

Its a bit like the Global Warming myth, the herd have said it so many times they might start to believe it.

House Prices are not crashing yet, and that is a fact, the market is hot, people are still making loadsa money from property and that wont die off until interest rates become high, and high is over the longer term average of 7%.

We are heading that way, but its a slow drawn out process.

If you like, go back to sleep, and I will wake you up when it happens next year.

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The fact is that house prices are going up still.

It might give you a moments comfort to join the crowd and announce that the crash is here, but as you well know by the end of the day when you drive home and see all the sold signs you are kidding nobody except yourself.

Its a bit like the Global Warming myth, the herd have said it so many times they might start to believe it.

House Prices are not crashing yet, and that is a fact, the market is hot, people are still making loadsa money from property and that wont die off until interest rates become high, and high is over the longer term average of 7%.

We are heading that way, but its a slow drawn out process.

If you like, go back to sleep, and I will wake you up when it happens next year.

Has an uberbull taken over your account? :blink:

All my clients (property developers) and all the agents I know are telling me the same thing. This market is as dead as a doornail. No-one is buying at the moment. This market couldn't be colder if it was at the South Pole.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
The fact is that house prices are going up still.

It might give you a moments comfort to join the crowd and announce that the crash is here, but as you well know by the end of the day when you drive home and see all the sold signs you are kidding nobody except yourself.

Its a bit like the Global Warming myth, the herd have said it so many times they might start to believe it.

House Prices are not crashing yet, and that is a fact, the market is hot, people are still making loadsa money from property and that wont die off until interest rates become high, and high is over the longer term average of 7%.

We are heading that way, but its a slow drawn out process.

If you like, go back to sleep, and I will wake you up when it happens next year.

you are funny laurejon,

I appreciate that you are just looking for a reaction rather than a debait, but here are my comments fwiw:

I agree there are still a fair few Sold Signs, but just how long will they stay "SOLD". ;)

please remember, a house isn't sold in my book until the money goes into the bank account, untill then, it's "Under Offer"

2005 all over again but this time with no way out. :D

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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2005 all over again...

Agreed.

...but this time with no way out. :D

Time will tell. I reckon a *crash* will only pick up momentum when the yoy -ves are reported in back to back quarters. I don't see that happening this year. I'm not seeing them in short/medium at all.

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Has an uberbull taken over your account? :blink:

All my clients (property developers) and all the agents I know are telling me the same thing. This market is as dead as a doornail. No-one is buying at the moment. This market couldn't be colder if it was at the South Pole.

Well you must be living in another country. All the developments in my area are sold out in days.

And houses I have had an interest in, advertised on Rightmove, when calling the agents have gone.

In addition, we are back to the days of "Price Guide" or "Offers in Excess of".

The market is hot in the South of England, and that is a fact.

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It might give you a moments comfort to join the crowd and announce that the crash is here, but as you well know by the end of the day when you drive home and see all the sold signs you are kidding nobody except yourself.

On my journey home there are currently 41 For Sale boards, and 3 Sold boards. (Im sad 'cause I count em daily ;) )

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Guest The_Oldie
Well you must be living in another country. All the developments in my area are sold out in days.

And houses I have had an interest in, advertised on Rightmove, when calling the agents have gone.

In addition, we are back to the days of "Price Guide" or "Offers in Excess of".

The market is hot in the South of England, and that is a fact.

Strange, I'm in the South of England and the market looks dead with many reductions.

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Well you must be living in another country. All the developments in my area are sold out in days.

And houses I have had an interest in, advertised on Rightmove, when calling the agents have gone.

In addition, we are back to the days of "Price Guide" or "Offers in Excess of".

The market is hot in the South of England, and that is a fact.

In Bristol the market was hot 4 months ago. It has transformed to stone cold very quickly.

10% price reductions are common and the market is flooded with flats of BTLers bailing out.

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Sorry, but does anyone actually believe that figures provided by lenders would actually be credable? They're hardly likely to release firgures that scream please don't get a mortgage because the market is screwed! Only the LR figures would carry any worth, end even then you have to hope theres no massaging of the data going on.

Just give their data a personal test - for the last crash NW quarterly figures showed a 20% drop from top to bottom.

Where I bought - studios were 80k at the peak so should have declined to about 65k at the trough based on NW figures. I bought a 2 bed terrace for 45k and not at the lowest point (this being offer of 10k under asking price which was accepted while I sat in agent's office so might have been able to get it for less).

Even on the assumption that data is free from any sort of distortion (whether unintentional or otherwise) I think we can expect a number that is much smaller than many people expect and much less then many people experience.

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this is f.....g ridiculous; BBC LR data from Jan to Mar 2007 show decline, but NW says everything goes up .....

any idea????

The NW used to do more business in the south. If it still does that might explain it.

There is genuine population pressure in the south, and genuine economic growth driving it.

You should start voting tory up north, maybe that would balance the economic growth out. Will never happen in L'pool N'castle, Boro, Glasgow etc. They're gonna suffer most in the downturn and benefit least in the upswing.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
If someone tells me it is night but when I look around me I see it is actually day should I believe them or not?

exactly tuffers.

it's dead as a door nail up here, I speak with several EA's due to us renting & I have just secured another rental rpoperty to move into soon. Whilst organising the paperwork he confimed to me that they are absolutely dead! others have said the same recently.

Open your eyes guys, the hpi game is over. People are making up their own prices ffs. :blink:

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Guest d23
If someone tells me it is night but when I look around me I see it is actually day should I believe them or not?

thats pretty much my point

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