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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/MPR0501.pdf

Real figures:

December £152,623

January £151,757

The seasonal adjustment looks to be +1% this month.

Seems like a lot, however, in January 04, the adjustment was +1.1%. (Also a fall reported as a rise)

So what happened in Feb/Mar 2004? In non-seasonally adjusted terms. If all three were rises that that would suggest that the 2004 seasonal adjustment was correct.. And hence (maybe) 2005?

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I have heard from local agents on the south coast that many STR'ers are now coming into their offices looking to buy.

The reason the put behind their decision to purchase is that they do not want to be left out of the loop with the anticipated price rises in 2005, and the standard of Rental properties does not equate to what they used to own with regards to Mortgage V Rent.

It looks like the rises in 2005 will catch a lot of people out as it was initially predicted that we would see only a 5% rise by the RICS however this is looking rather conservative a figure given the news flooding out from the agents.

Laurejon, I always thought you talked a lot of sense a lot of the time compared to the likes of Dog'sbreath and TTRTR but now I realise you're either just another troll.....or just plain daft.........

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Err bit puzzled here, house prices have fallen since July last year..........everybody agrees on that because it is a fact.  It has been reported in just about every press article connected with the subject of house prices.

Also Laurenjon the national stats are just that. Only Hometrack shows what's going on in the market which always preempts the national market AND EVEN YOU KNOW LONDON IS FALLING so for goodness sake admit when you're wrong! :angry:

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I have heard from local agents on the south coast that many STR'ers are now coming into their offices looking to buy.

HPC Bears have plastered this forum with bearish comments made by thier local E/As over last 6 months. Fair enough.

Now that many E/As are confirming a descernible upturn, the bears write this off as merely desperate 'VI'.

January Land Registry figs will indicate a bear market, but this doesnt reveal the true picture as the upturn has only really featured in the last 10 days or so. Febuary on the other hand.........

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No one has so far discussed the graph of households and houses over time;

Nationwide projects the recent steep increase in number of households as surpassing the number of houses by 2010.

I have seen several articles that point out that it is changes in society that have caused this, ie we are choosing to live in smaller households than previously. It is NOT due predominantly to rising populations.

As such there is clearly a limit to how far we can take the trend - not every human in the UK is going to end up living alone - kids tend to live with an adult, married couple tend to live together etc.

Another factor is that this change means there is a greater need for small houses/flats and a smaller need for large houses, so we will see large houses being spilt up into flats, increasing the number of dwellings without increasing the housing stock.

As house prices rise, I think we will reverse the "smaller households" trend pretty fast; children will live with their parents longer, friends will buy together or share rentals to economise.

Basically, Nationwide have done the simplest possible analysis - extrapolate the recent trend, and done no analysis to support it.

A bit like their analysis of house prices, except when it comes to complex seasonal adjustments, when it is reasonable to crunch the numbers until they squeal.

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Nationwide have done the simplest possible analysis - extrapolate the recent trend, and done no analysis to support it.

http://www.fool.co.uk/valueinvesting/2004/vi041112.htm

Recent Events Syndrome

By Stephen Bland (TMFPyad)

November 12, 2004

I have written previously of what I termed 'recent events syndrome' (RES). This is a process well known to those who study human behaviour whereby many people are far more influenced in their actions by recent events than historical ones, even where it is likely that the historical situation is the one most likely to assert itself eventually. So strong is this effect that even if lengthy history suggests that a particular course of events is most likely to take place over time, many would be persuaded into ignoring that in favour of the more recent occurrences. This is even though the recent events may be completely contrary to what history is saying.

I don't know for sure why people sometimes act in this way, it is just one of those many irrationalities that afflict the human condition. My general cod psychology explanation is that we are at a stage of evolution that is part way between instinctive animal and totally rational being. This causes us to act rationally in a lot of ways whilst still causing us to act irrationally at times. We need another million years or so to evolve out such traits unless, and I've just had this thought, these irrational traits are somehow essential to survival by natural selection.

In the stock market one of the most common manifestations of RES are the bubbles that take place occasionally. Certain shares are rising sharply, which attracts wide publicity which brings in more people which drives them up even more and so on. The kind of investors that buy in at this stage will frequently be people who know nothing of the market and go in just because others are doing so. Despite the near certainty of an ultimate crash, people still go ahead and consequently many lose money eventually. RES blinds them to history and also to common sense. No market continues to rise indefinitely at some massive short-term rate.

The high yield portfolio strategy which feature on the Fool publicly and in my monthly Value Investor newsletter to subscribers is an example of betting on history asserting itself. In particular it requires that the investor studiously ignores recent events in the market and sticks to the very long-term trend that has been proven repeatedly. Namely that high yield large cap shares deliver excellent and market beating performance over time.

In fact even more than ignoring recent events, the investor can actually take contrarian advantage of them when constructing their portfolio. Unfashionable big caps will deliver higher yields when they are temporarily unloved by the market. Assuming then that dividends are not cut, always a risk of course, the investor locks into that higher yield for as long as they hold the share.

This is simply the well-known value strategy at work but with a concentration on the yield criterion. By investing in high yield shares, you are automatically directed to those which are out of favour. You can't help it. Long-term history being what it is, the likelihood is that these shares will go on to do better as a group over time than the market in general whilst delivering the additional knockout blow, a much higher income than the market. The whole idea is beautifully simple and moreover it is also anti RES, or you could say it is contrarian RES as I mention above.

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January Land Registry figs will indicate a bear market, but this doesnt reveal the true picture as the upturn has only really featured in the last 10 days or so. Febuary on the other hand.........

You keep holding onto that dream....you can achieve it...house prices really will recover.

Well they might. I mean come on Tony Blair says so and we all know what a great decision maker he is when it comes to houses.

Dogbox give us something more to go on than the upturn has really only featured in the last 10 days. How on earth can you know this. Do you have some secret link into the land registry????

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I have heard from local agents on the south coast that many STR'ers are now coming into their offices looking to buy.

The reason the put behind their decision to purchase is that they do not want to be left out of the loop with the anticipated price rises in 2005, and the standard of Rental properties does not equate to what they used to own with regards to Mortgage V Rent.

It looks like the rises in 2005 will catch a lot of people out as it was initially predicted that we would see only a 5% rise by the RICS however this is looking rather conservative a figure given the news flooding out from the agents.

laurejon

As a frequent reader of share related bulletin boards I am used to people ramping shares. Such ramping is sometimes quite skillfull, employing quite convincing if selectice facts to support the posters hype. In other cases the ramping is just feeble, and would only convince the most ignorant reader.

However, I don't recall having ever read a ramp as feeble as that you posted above. I suggest the webmaster preserve it somehow for posterity, and for comedic value as prices continue to tumble (down again in January I see).

You are a comedy genius...

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HPC Bears have plastered this forum with bearish comments made by thier local E/As over last 6 months. Fair enough.

Now that many E/As are confirming a descernible upturn, the bears write this off as merely desperate 'VI'.

January Land Registry figs will indicate a bear market, but this doesnt reveal the true picture as the upturn has only really featured in the last 10 days or so. Febuary on the other hand.........

And how have you detected this upturn in the last 10 days? ESP, divining rod. Come on, produce evidence, or retract.

God, I thought laurejon's was the most feeble/desperate bit of ramping, but dogbox just trumped it! :lol::lol::lol:

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I have heard from local agents on the south coast that many STR'ers are now coming into their offices looking to buy.

The reason the put behind their decision to purchase is that they do not want to be left out of the loop with the anticipated price rises in 2005, and the standard of Rental properties does not equate to what they used to own with regards to Mortgage V Rent.

It looks like the rises in 2005 will catch a lot of people out as it was initially predicted that we would see only a 5% rise by the RICS however this is looking rather conservative a figure given the news flooding out from the agents.

That's funny, I have long wanted to move down to the bit of coast between Barton on Sea and Bournemouth. So I went down there last weekend and did a trawl all along and went into lots of Agent's offices. I asked all of them 'how's the market?' Of course they are trained to reply 'it was a bit quiet but things have really picked up since Christmas'. If you are persistent and ask them point blank 'how many properties have you sold this month' - you get a lot of jibbering and 'I'm not sure, we've taken a number of new properties on, we've agreed sales on about 4 I think etc. etc.

Not one of them mentioned STRs coming back into the market - not even when I explained that I was STR. I asked if there were many FTBs in the market to start chains off 'No, that's the problem, we have a lot of stuff under offer but offers are being accepted from people who are not in a position to proceed yet - i.e. no FTB at bottom of chain.'

Its all pipedreams and ****** I am afraid. I will not be buying yet unless I see an absolute bargain.

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Headlines:

Sixth month of price stability

House prices rose 0.4% in January

Period of stability to bring price conscious buyers back to the market

Upward pressure on house prices to be maintained through rising household numbers despite Prescott's action plan

Have there ever been buyers who weren't price conscious?

Hey Mr. Estate Agent, I'm a buyer - don't tell me the price - I am not price conscious.

That Nationwide crap is smoke and mirrors. Why does anyone take any notice of what a lender says? And, please don't say it is because they have access to the facts. The facts are at the Land Registry.

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Laurejon I live in London here house prices are now lower in nominal terms than at the start of 2004, and have fallen for 7 months in a row. If they continue to fall at the same rate, by June they will have fallen by £22,000 in 1 year.

My guess is that the rate of falls will increase as people with annually reviewed mortgages have just had a bit of a kick in the teeth. This will cause more distressed sellers to appear. I think by June the average London house will have fallen by £30,000 from the peak. Personally I'd call that a crash.

But no you might be right all those FTBs are just waiting to pile in because now houses are so much more affordable than they were 7 months ago ;)

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Dogbox give us something more to go on than the upturn has really only featured in the last 10 days. How on earth can you know this. Do you have some secret link into the land registry????

Serious investors do not rely all that much on stats and graphs for thier info'. Stats are always an historic compilation.

Sucesful investors / forecasters are a little more imaginative. If it was all down to academic research every professor in the land would be an investment guru.

Im not advocating buying now in pure investment terms as there are probably better ways to generate short to medium term wealth. Im just stating that the market has turned at last so not a lot of point buy to dwells obstaining anymore.

If u cant work out for yourself that the market is turning then I suggest you put your newspaper down and get out more often.

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Can someone please explain how they come up with this:

Average Price June = 151,524

Average Price Jan = 151,757

Real increase in House Price = 0.15%

Adding up the monthly increases from July to January we get:

1.9 + 0.1 + 0.4 + 0.0 + 0.9 - 0.2 + 0.4 = 3.5% :blink::unsure::blink:

So, using the monthly figures we get HPI of 3.5%, yet the Real HPI is 0.15% over the last 6 months????

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If u cant work out for yourself that the market is turning then I suggest you put your newspaper down and get out more often.

Wow. That has to be the most stupid comment I've seen to date (bull or bear). Unsupported anecdotal "evidence" is not evidence of anything, especially when it so blatantly contradicts the current hard evidence. A couple of years ago the same kind of comments were being made by Bears to suggest that a crash was beginning. They were wrong then, and you are wrong now.

Saying all that, I wont be surprised if there's a small bounce in house prices before the election. However the overall trend is clearly negative now and there is no foundation for a return to boom.

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Headlines:

Sixth month of price stability

House prices rose 0.4% in January

Period of stability to bring price conscious buyers back to the market

Upward pressure on house prices to be maintained through rising household numbers despite Prescott's action plan

Didn't I read somewhere that when the VIs release these kinds of figures they are based on asking prices not sold prices?

I am tracking house prices in my own area (San Diego, California--may be coming back home this Spring hence the interest in the UK) and have access to databanks showing all aspects of the house market. The median price of a home went UP in December compared with June 2004. However, that was based on "listing" price. When you look at the median "sold" price the HPC is on track with an 8% fall since June 2004.

The housing market is going down in the UK, there are too many trench reports showing deep discounts. The propaganda war is on big time.

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Wow. That has to be the most stupid comment I've seen to date (bull or bear). Unsupported anecdotal "evidence" is not evidence of anything,

On the contrary, one mans 'anecdotal' evidence is anothers real life experience.

Tony Blair tells me the OFFICIAL STATS show a decline in crime, but my own eyes and ears are infenitely more accurate.

Goverment census tells me average earnings are far lower than true earnings as offical stats do not include the massive cash economy.

I do wish the sheep werent so easily beguiled by stats and reports.

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Can someone please explain how they come up with this:

Average Price June = 151,524

Average Price Jan  = 151,757

Real increase in House Price = 0.15%

Adding up the monthly increases from July to January we get:

1.9 + 0.1 + 0.4 + 0.0 + 0.9 - 0.2 + 0.4 = 3.5%  :blink:  :unsure:  :blink:

So, using the monthly figures we get HPI of 3.5%, yet the Real HPI is 0.15% over the last 6 months????

The explanation lies in the mathematics. We live in an era of "creative financing" where losses can be shown as profits to fool the investors. Where I live the approach to deception is simplistic: report year-over-year statistics until the soft patch is reached thereby buying time and hope that the market will turn in time. Alter the basis for calculation along the way to manipulate data to say what you want it to say. Do you leave in "inflation", "seasonal adjustments" or do you ignore these figures to support your case? The VIs have powerful propaganda machinery and clever accountants to massage the data. Halifax will report something completely different this week--or, they may support Nationwide to show how both now agree so the data must be right. Thus: untruth + untruth = truth.

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I do wish the sheep werent so easily beguiled by stats and reports.

After taking a long look at the market a couple of years ago. I sold to rent. Based on FIGURES. If I had listened to stats or reports I would still be sitting in that house. Thinking ooh this is great my property is always going to increase in value. Instead I looked at the figures and made my own decision.

Almost everyone here has done the same. In the face of huge amounts of media telling us "everything is ok" "we should all buy" "houses can only go up", we are all staying out of the market because we believe none of it.

I ask you who are the sheep here???? The bears who are flying in the face of fashion???

Or the bulls who have been believing the hype for a long long time now.

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On the contrary, one mans 'anecdotal' evidence is anothers real life experience.

Tony Blair tells me the OFFICIAL STATS show a decline in crime, but my own eyes and ears are infenitely more accurate.

Goverment census tells me average earnings are far lower than true earnings as offical stats do not include the massive cash economy.

I do wish the sheep werent so easily beguiled by stats and reports.

I reckon Dogbox is really BBB, pretending to be a stupid person.

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How are they more accurate - are you able to look and listen to the whole of the UK?

Casual, if u like official stats then fair play. I personally take any stats with a pinch of salt and a ladel full of sceptisism. Ive been the subject of a couple of surveys and the logical honest answers I gave didnt fit the tick boxes!

Ms Barker (MPC - no less) summised we have a housing shortage. Now Im sure she did lots of sterling work to reach such a conclusion but in the end its allmost certainly a bag of bogies.

An over - reliance on stats and theories leads to all sorts of non - snsicle outcomes.

For example, I recall the Government proclaiming a new computer at the CSA will immesurably improve collection rates. Anyone with any common sense and used to dealing with software would know that this outcome would not be achieved. Imagine all the academics and theorists that developed the system.

Not one of the creators would have thought to ask a 'pleb' on the front - line what real life at the coal face is like (ie anecdotal stuff). Had they done this they would have created better software that is more likely to work in the real world rather than one based on an academics flawed info gathering.

Sorry to waffle.

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Casual, if u like official stats then fair play. I personally take any stats with a pinch of salt and a ladel full of sceptisism. Ive been the subject of a couple of surveys and the logical honest answers I gave didnt fit the tick boxes!

Ms Barker (MPC - no less) summised we have a housing shortage. Now Im sure she did lots of sterling work to reach such a conclusion but in the end its allmost certainly a bag of bogies.

An over - reliance on stats and theories leads to all sorts of non - snsicle outcomes.

For example, I recall the Government proclaiming a new computer at the CSA will immesurably improve collection rates. Anyone with any common sense and used to dealing with software would know that this outcome would not be achieved. Imagine all the academics and theorists that developed the system.

Not one of the creators would have thought to ask a 'pleb' on the front - line what real life at the coal face is like (ie anecdotal stuff). Had they done this they would have created better software that is more likely to work in the real world rather than one based on an academics flawed info gathering.

Sorry to waffle.

But you come up with statements such as "a revival started 10 days ago" without any evidence at all! It's a bit like me saying, I haven't been mugged or burgled for 10 days, crime's definitley been eradicated.

With respect, I'll go with stats and figures for the time being, backed up by anecdotes that demonstrate a bit of evidence to back them up.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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