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tippingpoint

Just Exchanged Contracts - Completing Next Week - Good Timing?

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Sorry to brag but I've been waiting to post this for about 2 years. I've finally jumped and STR'd. Started marketing in March got £5k below asking price; selling to a buyer with no chain.

How long do you reckon I should sit in rented for? (no comments on the rental cost vs income etc.) Just market punditry / views.

I am either thinking of buying in Nov/ Dec this year or next August-Sept.

Cheers.

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Surely, you cannot be serious. A housing market down turn will take 3-5 years.

So rent for that long? I don't think so. 2 years max for the bottom then a bumbling along the bottom then a rise again?

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Okay, well -- just do what you want then, I guess...

True, no point in asking really. Just wanted a pat on the back; haven't been in rented since 1 year after uni 10 years ago and feeling a bit scared about the prospect so need to justify what I have just done!

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So rent for that long? I don't think so. 2 years max for the bottom then a bumbling along the bottom then a rise again?

Check out the historical house prices at http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm. Look for "UK House Prices since 1952".

In the crash of the early 90's, prices peaked in Q3 1989, reached their nadir in Q1 1993, and reattained their prior peak in Q1 1998.

So, three and a half years to reach the nadir (ideally, you don't want to buy until then), and a total of 8 and a half years until they returned to their prior peak. House price crashes are very slow and painful! :unsure:

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I sold my house last month after a rollercoaster ride of viewings/buyer1/buyer2.... christ the relief when I'd sold.

I figured I could wait at least 3-5 years without worrying about buying again. Maybe more, looking at the time to recovery of the last time this happened.

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I sold my house last month after a rollercoaster ride of viewings/buyer1/buyer2.... christ the relief when I'd sold.

I figured I could wait at least 3-5 years without worrying about buying again. Maybe more, looking at the time to recovery of the last time this happened.

hope you didnt just make the decision to str on the basis of what everyone on this website says!

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Check out the historical house prices at http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm. Look for "UK House Prices since 1952".

In the crash of the early 90's, prices peaked in Q3 1989, reached their nadir in Q1 1993, and reattained their prior peak in Q1 1998.

So, three and a half years to reach the nadir (ideally, you don't want to buy until then), and a total of 8 and a half years until they returned to their prior peak. House price crashes are very slow and painful! :unsure:

Try telling the wife she has to live in rented for 3+ years. There must be a skill of persuading them. My wife likes to think we will move in the next 12 months; I can see trouble ahead as I am thinking longer. She will tolerate it if the falls start and the press cover it.

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This question often occurs to me too, since I STR'd in Dec 06.

Unfortunately it could take a long time from the first national MoM falls to the bottom.

Firstly, I would say, well done for selling. It feels liberating and you can watch the news unfold with a smug smile.

But the question of what to do next is not easy. I had to sell in any case because I was relocating, so the decision for me was whether to buy immediately or wait. I may end up buying in again soon, but a cheaper property than I sold. My last 6m renting, although cheap, have been annoying: my landlord is very inefficient and things need doing at the house which he doesn't do.

One thought: I wonder whether it is necessary to wait for the bottom - presumably even in a market where the average price has only fallen a little, it may be significantly easier to negotiate a good bargain? Much would depend on the local conditions.

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Sorry to brag but I've been waiting to post this for about 2 years. I've finally jumped and STR'd. Started marketing in March got £5k below asking price; selling to a buyer with no chain.

How long do you reckon I should sit in rented for? (no comments on the rental cost vs income etc.) Just market punditry / views.

I am either thinking of buying in Nov/ Dec this year or next August-Sept.

Cheers.

Good move, I reckon the crash will be on September 23rd, with prices dropping 55% over a period of three weeks, in December the market will regain momentum and should rise 65% over the Month, in January 2008 property will rise an additional 40% before crashing again in February, but back again in April for the spring bounce.

If I where you, I would have kept my house. Property investment doesnt seem to be one of your forte's.

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hope you didnt just make the decision to str on the basis of what everyone on this website says!

No. I was in the wrong house in the wrong area. I relocated to get a job, get a life and do some living. I believe prices will fall. So I am lucky to have managed to sell so I could move on with my life.

My name ScaredEitherWay reflects my indecision over the marketplace.

ScaredPricesWillGoUp - and with no job, not settled anywhere in the country specifically yet, that I might miss some boat or other

ScaredPricesWillFall - and with an economic downturn and lack of confidence, will jobs be harder to come by and will I get a job at all.

I am currently housesharing (one fixed payment per month, NO responsibilities, not tied to a lease, no bills) and can live nicely on the interest for now.

But my decision was based on: not liking what I had where it was.

Edited by ScaredEitherWay

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No. I was in the wrong house in the wrong area. I relocated to get a job, get a life and do some living. I believe prices will fall. So I am lucky to have managed to sell so I could move on with my life.

My name ScaredEitherWay reflects my indecision over the marketplace.

ScaredPricesWillGoUp - and with no job, not settled anywhere in the country specifically yet, that I might miss some boat or other

ScaredPricesWillFall - and with an economic downturn and lack of confidence, will jobs be harder to come by and will I get a job at all.

I am currently housesharing (one fixed payment per month, NO responsibilities, not tied to a lease, no bills) and can live nicely on the interest for now.

But my decision was based on: not liking what I had where it was.

fair enough

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Hope you get it right.

What will you do with the money? - that is important too

Depends how long before I buy. Looked heavily in to Gold / precious metals, 6 months ago and got out of my depth. I don't have the time to play stocks as too involved in running my company. I can get a return of 4% over base in the short term in a company which my wife will invest.

I am acutely aware of the need for the capital gained in the house sale to be re-invested to stop inflation eroding it.

Any ideas that don't involve me looking at graphs all day?

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Good move, I reckon the crash will be on September 23rd, with prices dropping 55% over a period of three weeks, in December the market will regain momentum and should rise 65% over the Month, in January 2008 property will rise an additional 40% before crashing again in February, but back again in April for the spring bounce.

If I where you, I would have kept my house. Property investment doesnt seem to be one of your forte's.

Sarcasm is your strong point - I thought 24th September because it is a Monday.

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ok.

i'm up 75% in 2-3 weeks on some gold share calls.

sold half my position, to cash that much profit, and make the rest bulletproof

That sounds like french to me. i have been to gei alot but it takes me too long to get into to it. I work 60+ hour weeks and live and breathe what I do at work; unfortunately if I got into stocks i would have to get too involved as i don't do things by half. anyway i think general stocks are in for a battering soon. take the ftse - getting too near 7000 for my liking. I know that dealing in financial markets is your profession; i can't find the time to do both my other work and enter stocks too. i'll let a fund manager do his thing with some of the money but not all.

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True, no point in asking really. Just wanted a pat on the back; haven't been in rented since 1 year after uni 10 years ago and feeling a bit scared about the prospect so need to justify what I have just done!

You should be scared my friend - you just blew a fortune in fees and rent and the costs of re-entry. If prices drop 20% you may get back in unscathed.

Edited by HPC Convert

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Good move, I reckon the crash will be on September 23rd, with prices dropping 55% over a period of three weeks, in December the market will regain momentum and should rise 65% over the Month, in January 2008 property will rise an additional 40% before crashing again in February, but back again in April for the spring bounce.

If I where you, I would have kept my house. Property investment doesnt seem to be one of your forte's.

:lol: Good shot.

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Surely, you cannot be serious. A housing market down turn will take 3-5 years.

I agree. This guy studied 40 OECD HPCs: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mkelly/papers/housing.pdf

The OP may like to look at table 1 on page 5 of the report. HPCs take 4-10 years.

Large falls in real house prices in the aftermath of housing booms are common internationally. Table 1 shows the 18 cases since 1970 where OECD economies have experienced falls in real house prices of at least 20 per cent, along with the previous price rise, and the duration of the fall. It can be seen that, in contrast to stock or currency markets, falls are prolonged, usually las ting 5 to 7 years, with the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Japan all experiencing more than a decade of falls. This reflects the reluctance of sellers to cut nominal prices , meaning that inflation does most of the work in reducing real prices.

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I just stuck my money in banks, highest rate, pretty much instant access.

I'd like to invest better, but I know nothing about anything, so I'd rather at least leave it where I can understand it, get to it, know what it's earning.

Having never had a penny to my name for my entire life, I figured it's better to at least understand my money rather than trying to be a bit smarter and maybe f*cking up.

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I just stuck my money in banks, highest rate, pretty much instant access.

I'd like to invest better, but I know nothing about anything, so I'd rather at least leave it where I can understand it, get to it, know what it's earning.

Having never had a penny to my name for my entire life, I figured it's better to at least understand my money rather than trying to be a bit smarter and maybe f*cking up.

See where you are coming from but STR was daft. Anyway, time will tell.

Edited by HPC Convert

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The poor sap is Aylesbury Ducked. Live and learn.

Nah. My guess is that we will see 50% falls in real terms over 5 years or so. The trick is to:

1) absolutely minimise the rent you pay in the interim period (houseshare, rent a room off a friend, move in with parents, buy a cheap place abroad, etc.)

2) beat inflation with your investments as much as possible

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