Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
TW11

Iea Sees Oil Supply Crunch Looming

Recommended Posts

I love the bit 'but it's not a peak it's a plateau'

Duh!!

Static Production/Rising Consumption= Peak Oil

If the IEA don't even get this simple concept then we truly are screwed!

Yes hilarious. They call it a plateau. So if you get to the top of a mountain and its flat then you have'nt reached the peak you've merely reached the plateau. hmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Govt and big buisness etc etc rely totaly on IEA for thier info re future supply, if you look into IEA figures you will find that at least half of future supply is from 'as yet undiscovered sources' which means that a lot of what they say is bullsh**. They are in fact a front for oil companies, who realy dont want us to consider alternatives untill they are done with us. As for current output, UK, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia and many others are declining year on year, in fact the output of all countires combined outside of opec ( and some within it) are declining yoy. The biggest individual suppler, Saudi Arabia has been reporting the same remaining reserves for about 25 years now and is not open to independent scrutiny. What will happen when it becomes obvious that supply realy is declining and not just at a 'platau' is that supplying countries will start to hold back on export, eg Russia for their own future needs. Our governments are conveniently hiding their heads in the sand on this one. If looking for property to buy in the near or even far future, please make sure that the out of town 2 car family ideal is not on your list of desirable purchases, unless of course it is big enough to grown your own food and generate your own power and of course is mortgage free.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ever wonder if all this global warming Cr*p is just a cover for reducing our dependance on Oil and gas based energy? I do. THere would be global panic if the truth got out!!! :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ever wonder if all this global warming Cr*p is just a cover for reducing our dependance on Oil and gas based energy? I do. THere would be global panic if the truth got out!!! :lol:

Totally agree. I think and have done for a long time that this is exactly why they are trying to promote burning fossil fuels is a cardinal sin.

I am loaded up with energy shares so drive a gas guzler, leave my monitor on and always take the lift at work and then drive to the gym lol.

No. I am not very nice. I was taught by the maestro blair that selfishness and greed is good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I love the bit 'but it's not a peak it's a plateau'

Duh!!

Static Production/Rising Consumption= Peak Oil

If the IEA don't even get this simple concept then we truly are screwed!

I note the IEA article refers to global demand being 95.8m bopd by 2012, that's 10m bopd more than today. Given the large and increasing number of key oil producing nations in decline I just don't see how we can grow output by 10m bopd in 5 years; in fact I'd question if we'll even be able to maintain existing rates.

Another issue for concern is that several of the world's largest oil exporting nations have flat or declining output against a background of rising internal consumption: Export Land Model. If this trend persists from whom will big oil importers such as US (and soon to be UK) source their imports?

Edited by zceb90

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I note the IEA article refers to global demand being 95.8m bopd by 2012, that's 10m bopd more than today. Given the large and increasing number of key oil producing nations in decline I just don't see how we can grow output by 10m bopd in 5 years; in fact I'd question if we'll even be able to maintain existing rates.

Another issue for concern is that several of the world's largest oil exporting nations have flat or declining output against a background of rising internal consumption: Export Land Model. If this trend persists from whom will big oil importers such as US (and soon to be UK) source their imports?

Not a problem for countries making products that other countries need. There's no point Russia or Saudi hoarding oil if they've nothing to do with it. Countries like Japan and Germany should be OK - they've been energy importers for years and will be able to strike reasonable deals with the big oil countries.

Sadly it appears the UK has little to offer in the way of exports. Better get the veg boxes going...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not a problem for countries making products that other countries need. There's no point Russia or Saudi hoarding oil if they've nothing to do with it. Countries like Japan and Germany should be OK - they've been energy importers for years and will be able to strike reasonable deals with the big oil countries.

Sadly it appears the UK has little to offer in the way of exports. Better get the veg boxes going...

It's not a case of the exporters 'hoarding oil' (although that might well happen as the world moves further along the downslope of Hubbert's oil production curve); rather it's a case of internal consumption in the exporting nation itself increasing. We've seen a trend recently for internal consumption to increase more rapidly, due to the big rises in the crude price in recent years delivering much more wealth to the oil exporters and thus setting in motion a consumer boom. Saudi reportedly has 50% of their fast growing population aged 21 or under thus we must expect lots of future new energy consumers there.

Russia has also seen a rapid consumer boom following economic collapse there after end of Soviet era. Auto sales of foreign vehicles have risen 12 fold since 2002: Russian Car Sales & Net Oil Exports. With Russian oil output now fairly flat, and due to enter decline shortly, the fast rising auto fleet within Russia means less oil for exports.

Here's another recent paper which concludes that consumption in oil importing nations is likely to halve within a decade of production peaking in the exporting nation: A look at the Import / Export Land Model with IEA Data.

The impact of the 'double whammy' of declining production and rising consumption within key oil exporting nations should be top of the list of concerns for nations with economies dependent on cheap and abundant oil imports - that means the UK given that N Sea is in steep, and terminal, decline. Business as usual for such importing nations isn't going to be an option.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Charlie The Tramp

From the Financial Times

Oil Supply Crunch

The world is facing an oil supply “crunch” within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.

In its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 355 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.