How Long Before Ftse Goes Above 7000?

[Tatty Teddy]

Just your thoughts on this but how long before the ftse goes above the 7,000 mark and where it might be in 12 months time?

[christhpc]

Well, whacking a rough trendline on a FTSE 100 chart suggests it should be way above 8,000 already now. I blame the BTLers (it's me pension innit). If things carry on as they have been, the FTSE 100 should meander its way up to 7,000 within a few months. Assuming no major economic shocks.

In 12 month's time is anyone's guess. The UK housing market will probably have collapsed by then for starters.

[penbat1]

You guys are FTSE100 fixated. All the smart money has been going into the FTSE250 for the last few years. The FTSE250 used to be at about the same level as the FTSE100 several years ago but now it is almost double.

[nowthenagain]

i predict the ftse will break 7000 in 8years from now. of course, owing to the years of inflation the number 7000 will actually be much less than 7000 today. but it'll be on it's way back up again by then at least!

[Guest muttley]

i predict the ftse will break 7000 in 8years from now. of course, owing to the years of inflation the number 7000 will actually be much less than 7000 today. but it'll be on it's way back up again by then at least!

Even if you believe that the FTSE will be 7000 8 years from now, you cannot be sure that it won't increase by the measly 5% it would take to break through the 7000 level.

[nowthenagain]

Even if you believe that the FTSE will be 7000 8 years from now, you cannot be sure that it won't increase by the measly 5% it would take to break through the 7000 level.

none of us can be sure of anything. i may be wrong. but i have a record that suggests i am usually not.

i am waiting for a big crash, which i believe to be imminent. if the ftse was to be down below 6000 in one months time my prediction would start to look very credible.. i see massive uncertainty from many directions in world financial markets. it will only take one bit of very bad news for a proper crash, a la 2000 or 1929 to kick in.

the appreciation of the dollar, the massive borrowing of hedge funds, global inflation taking off again, property bubble worldwide... those are just a few of the things that will contribute to the coming crash.

i have moved almsot all my money into cash, £30,000 lumps in different uk savings accounts. anyone reading this i suggest do the same. there is very little downside to doing this for a year or so, just to see how it all pans out.

[penbat1]

none of us can be sure of anything. i may be wrong. but i have a record that suggests i am usually not.

i am waiting for a big crash, which i believe to be imminent. if the ftse was to be down below 6000 in one months time my prediction would start to look very credible.. i see massive uncertainty from many directions in world financial markets. it will only take one bit of very bad news for a proper crash, a la 2000 or 1929 to kick in.

the appreciation of the dollar, the massive borrowing of hedge funds, global inflation taking off again, property bubble worldwide... those are just a few of the things that will contribute to the coming crash.

i have moved almsot all my money into cash, £30,000 lumps in different uk savings accounts. anyone reading this i suggest do the same. there is very little downside to doing this for a year or so, just to see how it all pans out.

There are two golden rules:

1/ Make sure you have a good cash buffer to fall back onto (at least £10,000) so if you lose your job etc, you should be secure for the foresable future and you shouldnt have to cash in any stock market investments.

2/Only invest on the stock market if you are willing to invest for the long term - 5 years absolute minimum - 10 years is better.

Edited July 12, 2007 by penbat1

[MJS]

Just your thoughts on this but how long before the ftse goes above the 7,000 mark and where it might be in 12 months time?

I reckon it will push through 7000 and the bull run will play out a little bit longer. I know a few people who have sold to rent recently in an attempt to call the top of the housing market. Maybe some of this money might be invested on the stockmarket. In any case if you look to the past, crashes tend to occur when the graph starts turning rapidly vertical; when the best gains are to be had; obviously so does the risk with regards to timing so it's your call. If you are happy with any gains made so far since the last bottom in 2003 then perhaps now is the time to lock them in and hold cash. I personally only invest 20% of our savings on the stockmarket, having been burnt once before in the tech bubble.

[domo]

i posted a thread earlier this year on dows parabola, its entering its verticle ascent phase now, just as the 20th anniversary of 1987 crash closes in.

[MJS]

i posted a thread earlier this year on dows parabola, its entering its verticle ascent phase now, just as the 20th anniversary of 1987 crash closes in.

Maybe? But the FTSE 100 doesn't look as vertical as it did prior to 1987 or the dot com crash:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE...&q=l&c=

Especially if you adjust for inflation; unfortunately can't find a FTSE 100 chart adjusted for inflation to post, anyone have one??

If not plot one yourselves using RPI index from the ONS and you'll see what I mean.

Also you could argue that the bear market was longer and more drawn out after the dot com bubble possibly due to 9/11 etc so maybe this bull will be longer and more drawn out before a big correction occurs because the previous downturn was overdone?

Who knows?

[nowthenagain]

1.4% down today. also down yesterday.

it's got nothing to do with relating now to 1987. now has nothing to do with 1987. it's about sentiment. and right now sentiment is turning ugly.

[MJS]

1.4% down today. also down yesterday.

it's got nothing to do with relating now to 1987. now has nothing to do with 1987. it's about sentiment. and right now sentiment is turning ugly.

Be Greedy when others are fearful, or so says Warren Buffet.

Its up and down like a yo yo at the moment!

[nowthenagain]

it is indeed. unbelievably so.. no-one knows which way to turn. sometime soon something will push it over the cliff.

[christhpc]

Once everyone craps themselves and starts selling their investment properties, all that money's going to end up in equities (again). And once that happens and pushes shares prices through the roof and price / earnings to entirely speculative levels it's time to worry about your stock market investments, not before.

Edited July 20, 2007 by christh

[MJS]

Once everyone craps themselves and starts selling their investment properties, all that money's going to end up in equities (again). And once that happens and pushes shares prices through the roof and price / earnings to entirely speculative levels it's time to worry about your stock market investments, not before.

I agree, the smart money has got to go somewhere especially with inflation on the rampage eroding cash deposits. Isn't there a theory that as inflation rises so does the stockmarket? I read this sometime ago but can't remember the technical reasons behind this. Can anyone confirm or elaborate?

[MJS]

Another indicator worth looking at is the volatility index VIX. But this, I believe relates to the U.S market; does anyone know if there is a UK index that attempts to measure the volatility of UK shares or the FTSE 100 etc?

[Guest muttley]

You mean I have to sell my gold? I only just finished burying it at the bottom of my garden.

[petrodollar]

I suspect we have seen the high spot for the ftse, as well as the high spot for house prices bond prices and just about everything else apart from bank base rates.

The only direction now is south we are at the top of a boom cycle, built on layer after layer of debt.

Some suggest we are about to enter a serious recession, as the dollar falls and it looks like it could free fall soon, due to debt issues and no real prospects for the us economy, then interest rates will be increased to support it, that will trigger yet more interest rate rises in China Japan and eurozone.

The rising interest rates to 7-10% in the short term will cause stocks to fall very sharply.

To compound the misery even more as the dollar falls to 30 year lows the holders of us debt will call the loans in and sell even more dollars! the oil boys will quickly get out of dollar pricing for oil causing the us economy to implode.

It will make 1929-1934 look like a party in comparison.

The above might not happen.. I am not an economist just an off the street punter who feel that the world/ us economy is poised for a huge correction..........if it comes to pass then the only financial tool you will need is a large sharp bowie knife and some gold coins secreted in your belt, the financial world as we have known it will change for ever.

Check out gold prices!

[MJS]

I suspect we have seen the high spot for the ftse, as well as the high spot for house prices bond prices and just about everything else apart from bank base rates.

The only direction now is south we are at the top of a boom cycle, built on layer after layer of debt.

Some suggest we are about to enter a serious recession, as the dollar falls and it looks like it could free fall soon, due to debt issues and no real prospects for the us economy, then interest rates will be increased to support it, that will trigger yet more interest rate rises in China Japan and eurozone.

The rising interest rates to 7-10% in the short term will cause stocks to fall very sharply.

To compound the misery even more as the dollar falls to 30 year lows the holders of us debt will call the loans in and sell even more dollars! the oil boys will quickly get out of dollar pricing for oil causing the us economy to implode.

It will make 1929-1934 look like a party in comparison.

The above might not happen.. I am not an economist just an off the street punter who feel that the world/ us economy is poised for a huge correction..........if it comes to pass then the only financial tool you will need is a large sharp bowie knife and some gold coins secreted in your belt, the financial world as we have known it will change for ever.

Check out gold prices!

Yeah , I've always thought a good investment was to go down to Lidls and buy couple of hundred quids worth of tinned food and water and bury it somewhere. Look how quickly the shelves were emptied after the last petrol strike. There's a quote saying that the breakdown of modern civilization is only 2 missed meals away. Better stock up on some dog biscuits too; apparantly they last longer in storage and are packed with vitamins and also have the added advantage of being overlooked whilst everyone else will be foolishly grabbing the bread and milk! Dog biscuits is is then for a secure future! Ha Ha

[Tatty Teddy]

You mean I have to sell my gold? I only just finished burying it at the bottom of my garden.

Could you just remind me where you live again as I've forgotten and I'll tender your garden next time you're on holiday....

[christhpc]

Could you just remind me where you live again as I've forgotten and I'll tender your garden next time you're on holiday....

For anyone interested, the ratios at the close on Friday were:

		  Yield  Cover  P/EFTSE 100  2.93%  2.76x  12.63FTSE 250  1.96%  2.69x  19.00All Share 2.75%  2.73x  13.33

FT100 and FTAS hardly look overvalued to me.

[benno1uk]

For anyone interested, the ratios at the close on Friday were:

		  Yield  Cover  P/EFTSE 100  2.93%  2.76x  12.63FTSE 250  1.96%  2.69x  19.00All Share 2.75%  2.73x  13.33

FT100 and FTAS hardly look overvalued to me.

I've no idea what those figures mean but the FTSE 100 looks fooked to me.

[christhpc]

I've no idea what those figures mean

Yield is the "interest rate" you get on the amount you invest (aka. dividends)

Cover is how many times more than its dividend payments the company's profits are (anything less than 1x is 'bad')

P/E is the share price to earnings ratio - e.g. if a company is trading at £1 a share and earnings over the last year were 10p per share, the P/E ratio would be 10.

but the FTSE 100 looks fooked to me.

It's certainly taking a kicking this month. Will be some bargains to be had soon, that's for sure. Certain FTSE 100 companies are yielding higher than my ISA is. United Utilities at 6.5% for example.

[petrodollar]

Yield is the "interest rate" you get on the amount you invest (aka. dividends)

Cover is how many times more than its dividend payments the company's profits are (anything less than 1x is 'bad')

P/E is the share price to earnings ratio - e.g. if a company is trading at £1 a share and earnings over the last year were 10p per share, the P/E ratio would be 10.

It's certainly taking a kicking this month. Will be some bargains to be had soon, that's for sure. Certain FTSE 100 companies are yielding higher than my ISA is. United Utilities at 6.5% for example.

And it will continue to take a kicking next month and the month after.......markets across the world are exposed to the ills of huge debt which cant be paid back.

Just how good a divvi of 6.5% is when the stock value is 2% lower on the year and falling, with a bid to offer spread of 5% plus dealing fees remains to be seen.

A natural correction is about to occur.

Interest rates will hit real people in the pocket needing to spend real money the stuff in your wallet.... a contraction of real spending will affect every market and most company profits hence stock values.

The days of going to the bank for another £25K to prop up your credit card at 3% secured against a house which is 30% overvalued is over.

Then we have the problem with a falling dollar which will cause all sorts of interesting issues.

I saw this pile up some 10 months back and have thankfully just completed a retreat of my investments from the stock markets to cash.

But hey what do I know just a old punter might be boom times ahead for the markets..........

[benno1uk]

Yield is the "interest rate" you get on the amount you invest (aka. dividends)

Cover is how many times more than its dividend payments the company's profits are (anything less than 1x is 'bad')

P/E is the share price to earnings ratio - e.g. if a company is trading at £1 a share and earnings over the last year were 10p per share, the P/E ratio would be 10.

It's certainly taking a kicking this month. Will be some bargains to be had soon, that's for sure. Certain FTSE 100 companies are yielding higher than my ISA is. United Utilities at 6.5% for example.

Thanks for that explanation Christh. I have to admit to knowing little or nothing about the financial markets but I have been burnt in the past with 'unit trust' and 'pep/isas' plummeting due to stock market crashing (i.e 2001). In fact I sold my remaining holdings a couple of months ago when the FTSE 100 was around 6400 mark. I know it has gone higher but looks to be going back down again. I could not stand the idea of them going back to what I bought them for again! I guess at the moment to me a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.