Realistbear Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Its out now! Up front in the opening segment an interview with what seemed to be a "realist bear" type. He said mortgage restes were going to cause a great deal of misery and said going IO will just end in tears later on. Its panic time for millions. The background sign "Mortgage Misery" was great overt stuff for the millions glued to their sets trying to swallow their chips. Crash fever has begun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Its out now! Up front in the opening segment an interview with what seemed to be a "realist bear" type. He said mortgage restes were going to cause a great deal of misery and said going IO will just end in tears later on. Its panic time for millions. The background sign "Mortgage Misery" was great overt stuff for the millions glued to their sets trying to swallow their chips.Crash fever has begun. that's funny RB, no doom & gloom for me, only good news. seriously though, it's nice to see it all panning out as predicted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PricedOutNative Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 (edited) I would agree, it seems HPC sentiment's gone main stream! Edited July 5, 2007 by PricedOutNative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubai Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Ok then.... job well done HPC.co.uk.... nice knowing you..... see you in 10 years on "housepriceboom.co.uk" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Interesting though - and slightly irritating - is that at no time do reporters say that the problem isn't with IRs, it's with property prices. 5.75% is still a very modest rate. Similarly, when anyone says "Ah, but the crash won't happen cos IRs were much higher the last time..." slap them and tell them HOW MUCH MORE PEOPLE ARE BORROWING NOW and that small rises mean a lot more cash. Then walk away when they say "Yeah, but it's different this time. Supply is lower." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 just the gloating to do now then, should keep us busy for 5 years or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AuntJess Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I have noticed that elections are lost or won on how much dosh the wo/man in the street has in his/her pocket to spend on 'fun'. ..new clothes, ciggies, booze, nights out. A party can be as noble and well meaning as you like. If they don't release some cash for the punters, they are dead meat. This is where the crunch will be here. People aren't going to want to pay above the odds on a house.. like forever!! - and forego their pleasures, when the simple solution - for almost everyone - save BTLs - is to...DROP...THE...PRICES!!!! Vox popularis...can't say it often enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 just the gloating to do now then, should keep us busy for 5 years or so. Today has been good training for that. A nice, steady workout. I aim to be the "Charles Atlas" of gloaters by the end of 2012. (That's if I'm not lynched first!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 just the gloating to do now then, should keep us busy for 5 years or so. I'd be finding it difficult not to gloat if I'd been telling anyone who cared to listen that that the market was about to crash and then put my money where my mouth was by STRing. Hang on...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted July 5, 2007 Author Share Posted July 5, 2007 Interesting though - and slightly irritating - is that at no time do reporters say that the problem isn't with IRs, it's with property prices. 5.75% is still a very modest rate.Similarly, when anyone says "Ah, but the crash won't happen cos IRs were much higher the last time..." slap them and tell them HOW MUCH MORE PEOPLE ARE BORROWING NOW and that small rises mean a lot more cash. Then walk away when they say "Yeah, but it's different this time. Supply is lower." IR are at their highest level in history. You have to factor in the "cost" of the mortgage which is so much higher than just before Great Crash 1 laid waste to the excesses of the late 1980's. With multiples far exceeding those that brough property down in the late 80's and early 90's it is easy to see how just a few mini-hikes can trigger a major attemtpoed sell-off. I say "attempted" because for many, they won't make it before reposession comes knocking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Today has been good training for that. A nice, steady workout.I aim to be the "Charles Atlas" of gloaters by the end of 2012. (That's if I'm not lynched first!) I think all the bears will have a great xmas this year & people will no longer think we are 'loonies' well, apart from dstars anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdon Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 IR are at their highest level in history. You have to factor in the "cost" of the mortgage which is so much higher than just before Great Crash 1 laid waste to the excesses of the late 1980's. With multiples far exceeding those that brough property down in the late 80's and early 90's it is easy to see how just a few mini-hikes can trigger a major attemtpoed sell-off. I say "attempted" because for many, they won't make it before reposession comes knocking. IR are at their highest level in history... not technically true old bean! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I'd be finding it difficult not to gloat if I'd been telling anyone who cared to listen that that the market was about to crash and then put my money where my mouth was by STRing.Hang on...... timed to perfection, ya lucky bu55er (at least that's what the average person will say to you, but we all know different) My wife will be able to take me out on visits again (in public I hasten to add), no longer seen as that mad bloke who tells random strangers in queues house prices are actually going to fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 IR are at their highest level in history... not technically true old bean! h'mmm, very close I would say. imo 6% now (well by xmas anyway ) is equivalent to 13% of the 90's ?? remember that huge debt burden the average person is carrying bdon. The hpc'ers on this site are not indicative of Mr & Mrs Average, this is what people on here sometimes forget. I know people that shop at Netto with credit cards, do you ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Today has been good training for that. A nice, steady workout.I aim to be the "Charles Atlas" of gloaters by the end of 2012. (That's if I'm not lynched first!) I hope to be gloating until 2112. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I was going to watch Question Time to see if anyone tables any daring questions about housing and the state of the economy (it seems ages since the economy was discussed on TV and by politicians). Unfortuneatly tonights show is a "schools special." "This Week" might be interesting as Andew Neild was on fine form earlier today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 h'mmm, very close I would say.imo 6% now (well by xmas anyway ) is equivalent to 13% of the 90's ?? remember that huge debt burden the average person is carrying bdon. The hpc'ers on this site are not indicative of Mr & Mrs Average, this is what people on here sometimes forget. I know people that shop at Netto with credit cards, do you ? I just posted a reply in another thread with a comment "IMO, 6.5% is the new 15%". I think we`re on the same wavelength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I hope to be gloating until 2112. well we also have the UK olympic disaster to keep us laughing through the quieter hpc times, don't we. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablo-silver or lead? Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 (edited) Evan was on Radio 4/Radio 5 live saying people cant really complain because i/r of 4 to 5% were historicaly low and interest rates of 5 to 6%+ arn't high. He hinted at more rises to come and maybe that individuals and companies may have borrowed to much in the belief that interest rates would stay very low. Edited July 5, 2007 by Pablo-silver or lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I just posted a reply in another thread with a comment "IMO, 6.5% is the new 15%". I think we`re on the same wavelength. indeed both wavelength & frequency by the looks of it. I have followed some of your previous replies in the past prof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes Sir Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 I was going to watch Question Time to see if anyone tables any daring questions about housing and the state of the economy (it seems ages since the economy was discussed on TV and by politicians). Unfortuneatly tonights show is a "schools special." "This Week" might be interesting as Andew Neild was on fine form earlier today. Daring questions on Question Time? Come now, don't be silly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 indeed both wavelength & frequency by the looks of it. I have followed some of your previous replies in the past prof. Blimey ! Am I doing OK ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 (edited) Blimey ! Am I doing OK ? unless I have you mixed up with "professor", I can't remember now. Take the credit & run imo. no, it must be you, there isn't a "the professor" or "professor". Edited July 5, 2007 by grumpy-old-man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 On the News tonight they were discussing how the MPC are worried about inflation getting out of control, while they were discussing with great difficulty what decision to make, a voice came from behind those double doors shouting "remember Anthony Barber " and that`s how you got that 0.25% hike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 Beeb are bearish at the mo, but I was listening to radio 5 live at about 7pm and the financial reporter dared to suggest that 5.75% might be the peak in this cycle and that people might consider switching to tracker mortgages * * Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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