Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
dude wheres my house

And The Decision Is .25% Rise To 5.75%

Recommended Posts

Yes, but hes like a bear trolling as a bull?

Hes like a double crossing double agent who has defected to the other side but really he hasn't and is double crossing them.

Sort of like an Octuple Agent??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know what you mean. I hope financial advisors bear the brunt of the coming recession (but then again, there's always plenty of ignorant, rich people, right FP ;) )

I was advised into a tech stock fund at the height of the dot-comm boom; then another FA muppet advised me to be out of property in 2001. Needless to say, I ignored them both.

The way the BoE are going now, the upper limit for IRs now is really unknown. These 0.25% rises are just fuelling inflation. But to but get a hold on inflation, they'd have to kill the entire economy.

Interesting. So are you saying that in the short term IR hikes could be calling employees into action and asking their emplyers for higher wages, and hence further inflation?

And that the whole economy has to be put into reverse gear before inflation can be controlled? A Run away train, so to speak?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that these small 0.25% increases just stoke inflation. You can see that they are trying to treat the patient with as little nasty medicine as possible but in the long run are going to make the patient feel sicker.

Also not delivering a killer rise or couple of rises then letting it settle is doing more harm and leaving the media and money markets wide open to speculation of 1,2 maybe more rises which will make people feel more uncertain about taking out more debt then if they just got it over with.

Its is curious how only now the media attention has switched to these rises.Before this month it was sideline news. Any rise in the future will attract massive media attention from here on in.

Game Over

Edited by equitystasher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This was tenroom's prediction last year. He was predicting even higher rates than myself.

What's this guy really about?

I never said I thought rates wouldn't go up but I've always rubbished the idiots calling the crash in Q107. Anyone with a shred of common sense would've known the market wasn't going to crash or start crashing early this year.

There's a reason for being listed as "neither" . . . I don't think this ridiculous market will go on much longer but my opinions aren't tinged with the bitterness and anger of those who've let HPI and the lovely lolly pass them by while they were busy calling the top of the market in 2004.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness
but my opinions aren't tinged with the bitterness and anger

No, no, of course not. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Actually, in the bear defence it has been recently admitted by Lord Edward George that the entire housing market was manufactured by artificially lowering the cost of borrowing…

This has never once been about housing; this has only been about the massive business of lending a huge amount of money to people…

All previous economic policies would have raised the cost of borrowing as the borrowing increased, slowing it and maintaining the correlation between saving and borrowing… The balance necessary for a sustainable economy...

This did not happen and in point of fact borrowing costs were slashed as the borrowing increased, were gently raised and then cut again in 2005 when the borrowing slowed…

Bears saw a speculative market, but few could have guessed that it was actually being manufactured by those who we all pay to prevent it…

So, please, housing is a by product, the irrelevant engine by which people have been persuaded into horrendous levels of debt…

Now the economy has no choice, reactions to the massive inflationary pressure of close to £800,000,000,000.00 being injected into the money supply were tempered and actually used to lower the cost of borrowing…

But secondary inflationary pressures cannot now be ignored and borrowing must rise…

140,000 at 6% would be £8400 a year: £700 a month...

Under massive house price inflation the cost of borrowing plummeted...

If someone saw there property surge in value to £230,000 they would have found themselves able to remortgage up to £210,000 (perhaps)

Why would they take on levels of debt like this?

At 4% interest repayments this would cost them £8,400 a year or £700 a month...

But if interest rates were to climb.... say back to 6%...

The £210,000 loan would then cost the hapless borrower: £12,600 a year or £1,050 a month...

Oops...

The extra cost of borrowing was hidden and borrowing was encouraged...

Now watch

200,000 people a month are finishing their fixed rate deals...

i think you should use that post as the skeleton for a longer piece.

i enjoyed it,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
FROM BBC HYS

Added: Thursday, 5 July, 2007, 12:08 GMT 13:08 UK

I bought my first house in Aug , just b4 the first rise having been told by my 'financial advisor' that rates would unlikely go up as they have not risen for a ages. He recommended a variable rate mortgage - I knew I should have had a fixed. FINANCIAL ADVISORS cannot predict the future so take their words with caution.

Paul

:huh::lol:

Paul, go back to the shop and batter this person :ph34r:

LOL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well.. I predicted back in March that we would see 5.75% by the end of the year, I have to admit that I thought then that the people predicting 6% or 6.5% were just plain crazy.

Look how quickly they are moving up.. it's only July!!

I'll have ketchup and a side of chips with that hat please.

Lib

oh, and PG.. as much as I really hate to ask.. no, no, I can't.

Anyone got one of those charts showing what the BOE base rate was in Sept to Dec 96 when I bought my house? I am planning to have a serious chat with a mate who is on a lie to buy variable discount mortgage on his second house and only entered the market in 2002.

He took a risk last summer hoping the base rate would drop from 4.5%, so I want to wake him up to the fact that the base rate may hit 7% in the next few years.

Cheers

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Cletus VanDamme
Interesting. So are you saying that in the short term IR hikes could be calling employees into action and asking their emplyers for higher wages, and hence further inflation?

And that the whole economy has to be put into reverse gear before inflation can be controlled? A Run away train, so to speak?

There may be an impact on wage claims yes, but I was thinking more in terms of producers increasing their prices.

I think the runaway train is a good one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Turn round and talk more clearly. I can't hear you through your pants and trousers.

Not worried in the slightest personally, can handle 15% or more if necessary. In any case pay rises received since last August more than cover the rate increases and 2 or 3 more if necessary.

I'm more interested in why people on here seem to think that interest rates are going to keep on rising, but in the same breath say that there is going to be a recession and that house prices are going to collapse. The first thing they will do if there is a major slowdown in the economy is to cut interest rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not worried in the slightest personally, can handle 15% or more if necessary. In any case pay rises received since last August more than cover the rate increases and 2 or 3 more if necessary.

I'm more interested in why people on here seem to think that interest rates are going to keep on rising, but in the same breath say that there is going to be a recession and that house prices are going to collapse. The first thing they will do if there is a major slowdown in the economy is to cut interest rates.

Really? What if inflation were still too high, would they be able to cut? What if sterling became weak and they needed to support it, would they be able to cut?

The BOE takes account of more than house prices in its decisions...

:ph34r:

p.s. I know a few people in the private sector who have received 0% rises in the last few years so not everyone is getting increased pay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The first thing they will do if there is a major slowdown in the economy is to cut interest rates.

Not when we're importing inflation from China.

Look, it's really very, very simple. In the last few years we've been seeing massive monetary inflation, but the CPI has been kept low by the Chinese exporting deflation to us. Now the Chinese are exporting inflation to us and the only way to keep the inflation rate down will be ever-higher interest rates to push the pound up.

The Western governments had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity from the Chinese deflation to improve the quality of life in the UK as prices dropped with interest rates stable at a reasonable level; instead the chose to cut rates, price a generation out of housing and create the biggest credit bubble the world has ever seen. Now they're ******ed and we have years of stagflation to look forward to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not worried in the slightest personally, can handle 15% or more if necessary. In any case pay rises received since last August more than cover the rate increases and 2 or 3 more if necessary.

I'm more interested in why people on here seem to think that interest rates are going to keep on rising, but in the same breath say that there is going to be a recession and that house prices are going to collapse. The first thing they will do if there is a major slowdown in the economy is to cut interest rates.

I think you are right in the fact most people will be able to afford the 10% + rates that are likely to be seen at some time in this rate cycle, and problems at relatively low rates (below 8%) are exaggerated. It will be a combination of factors that will lower general affordability where IRs is only one factor, albeit a major one, effecting disposable incomes.

I would expect though to see mass record individual as well as company insolvancies, record mass unemployment and a deep global depression that would see the UK suffer more than most. It will be more a matter of survival than lossing any perceived wealth. How many banks will be adversely effected? Is Northern Rock going to survive another 5 years?

The BoJ are reluctantly raising rates, although they know they must. They realise that recessions in their customers countries will push them into a lower GDP cycle, in effect, stiffling growth just as it has got started. But they will come to realise it is not so important as they now think, and a reasonable homegrown growth could be an outcome. Taken into account their temporary problem with an aged population this could soon be seen as a satisfactory outcome.

The UK could be bypast in the global economy for a period of time. What good is the UK at anything anyway?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think this thread is the proof of that <_<

Well you go ahead and think what you like . . . Your credence is not required. Spend your lives ravaged by status anxiety if you like, I prefer to spend my life laughing . . . at you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness
Well you go ahead and think what you like . . . Your credence is not required. Spend your lives ravaged by status anxiety if you like, I prefer to spend my life laughing . . . at you

Yup, no bitterness or anger there.

Personal self-validation via anonymous internet forum. Maybe you should spend some of your vast wealth on some sort of counselling?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yup, no bitterness or anger there.

Personal self-validation via anonymous internet forum. Maybe you should spend some of your vast wealth on some sort of counselling?

:lol:

Imagine that . . . being psycho-analysed by a bloke with a Doctor Who avatar . . . <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest absolutezero
:lol:

Imagine that . . . being psycho-analysed by a bloke with a Doctor Who avatar . . . <_<

At least he's got one....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pioneer31
Why ??!! Well even you must realise that you'd probably have a lot more to crow about if you'd kept your place in London instead of buying a 3 bed on a f***ing flood plain somewhere in the ar5e-end of the country . . .

As for my flat in Ladbroke Grove, rates never bothered me given the tiny mortgage and the 6 figure income . . .

you are about as believable as comical Ali.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest d23
Yup, no bitterness or anger there.

Personal self-validation via anonymous internet forum. Maybe you should spend some of your vast wealth on some sort of counselling?

presumably you've given PG the same advice, or is selling 100 BTL's in a year, making 3.75 million and moving to a chateaux more believable than earning a decent salary and buying at the right time in London?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well you go ahead and think what you like . . . Your credence is not required. Spend your lives ravaged by status anxiety if you like,

"status anxiety"? :huh:

I prefer to spend my life laughing . . . at you

Well at least you've finally admitted why you come here, to troll.

You know what, I actually pity you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yup, no bitterness or anger there.

Personal self-validation via anonymous internet forum. Maybe you should spend some of your vast wealth on some sort of counselling?

Oi. Lay off the troll. He's about the only one left.

Apart from that a-fixated oedipus-plexed d23.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"status anxiety"? :huh:

Well at least you've finally admitted why you come here, to troll.

You know what, I actually pity you.

Boohoo . . . you've done it now . . . I'm gonna run off now and get all introspective - question my life choices, face the fact I'm a troll . . . :lol:

C'mon D23 . . . I think PG's now-legendary tale of how he came to be so fabulously wealthy is perfectly plausible . . . even if he did feel the need to ram it down the throat of anyone reading his posts by virtue of it being his signature for years . . . until he realised what an absolute tool it made him look :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.