Are You A Bear Or A Bull

[papillon]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll.

If the shoe fits.

Do trolls wear shoes BTW?

[iluminati]

Troll Alert

[downandout]

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

Isn't that a bit like asking if you think that the stock market is going to crash do you own shares?

Personally I welcome a different opinion, it makes life more interesting. Perhaps we are wrong, but on a website devoted to the subject of a house price crash you've got your work cut out for you convincing us we're wrong, but by all means, please try.

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

If you'd read this site for more than 5 minutes you'd have more than a sneaking suspicion.

It's normally good form to lurk for some time to get the feel of a site, the sorts of discussion had, the demographics, which posters deserve your respect, which you can safely ridicule (and thus get in with the in crowd), before posting.

It's a bit like school.

[Guest_chris c-t_*]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

Own a house, I am a BEAR.

I own it outright, and to me its value is that i can live in it and earn money for me doing my job. Its actual value is of course relative to the rest of the market, and I know it could fall, but I dont care, I'm using it!

[headmelter]

Own a house, I am a BEAR.

I own it outright, and to me its value is that i can live in it and earn money for me doing my job. Its actual value is of course relative to the rest of the market, and I know it could fall, but I dont care, I'm using it!

Ditto.

[FernandoMorientes]

I own a house (and no mortgage) in Lincolnshire and I am a bear and have been for a past 3 years (now have a sizeable amount of money to buy another property but buying now is for mugs). With respect what you seem to fail to see is that thisis not strictly related to HPI even thought he main focus is on an over inflated housing market.

The Markets (hedge funds) are going to call the shots and you will start to see a large nuimber of these start to default over the coming year as the fallout from the US impacts.

Do not think that we in the UK are immune as our markets are tid in and have been buying US debt with gusto over the cousre of the asset bubble.

Every asset bubble pops and this one is no different.

Also your bull argument is a little farcial if you are using supply and demand as a basis for your arument i suggest you take a look at Japan an their housing bubble history, supply and demand my ass!

Now a question for you.....why are you here and why are you spending a great deal of time trying to convince people there will not be a housing/asset crash when so many here have seen the writing on the wall for some time now? I suspect you are secretly worried and not 100% convinced yourself on your bullish stance?

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

[misfit]

Own a house, I am a BEAR.

I own it outright, and to me its value is that i can live in it and earn money for me doing my job. Its actual value is of course relative to the rest of the market, and I know it could fall, but I dont care, I'm using it!

I do not own my flat outright but I am slowly overpaying (and yes I understand finance) and chipping away at it but I agree with the rest of the sentiment above.

Also as I was able to buy I believe I should support all those on this site not so lucky.

I say lucky because I bought 4 years ago when it was possible to buy at 4* my salary so I consider myself very lucky.

[FernandoMorientes]

To be fair this site has gone against 'the crowd' and the ludicrous spectacle (debt) unfolding in the UK for some time now, so I would say this site has been the rebelious rather than the crowd mentality, many of the posters here have refused to follow the herd which takes a lot of self confidence and some courage.

If you'd read this site for more than 5 minutes you'd have more than a sneaking suspicion.

It's normally good form to lurk for some time to get the feel of a site, the sorts of discussion had, the demographics, which posters deserve your respect, which you can safely ridicule (and thus get in with the in crowd), before posting.

It's a bit like school.

[Mr Yogi]

I too own my own home, I have a few years to go on a very low mortgage, and so am sitting on a pile of notional capital.

I got involved on this forum because I seemed to be the only person in my social circle who felt that ever increasing house prices were firstly unsustainable, and secondly damaging to society in general.

If our house dropped in value by 50% overnight, it would make absolutely no difference to my wife and myself, other than making it possible for our teenage children to maybe have the prospect of being able to buy their own homes in a few years time, rather than living with us into their thirties.

Finding this forum was something of a revelation to me, because finally I had found some kindred spirits who could see the damage that unaffordable housing was doing to our society, and the economic madness of those who seriously believed that this bubble could never burst.

I have to say though, that there are some contributors to the forum who appear to be driven by bitterness and envy of those who were fortunate and/or prudent enough to have bought a house before the current explosion in prices. I have a suspicion that they were the same people who spent their twenties pi$$ing their money against the wall instead of knuckling down and building something for the future. The future's now here and it's too late!

Bitterness, envy, and wishful thinking aren't going to bring about a return to affordable housing. That will happen in its own good time by the workings of the market. I hope for the future of our country that it happens sooner rather than later.

I do not wish anyone any ill-will in wanting a correction; apart that is from buy-to-let investors who I consider to be a cancer on society and who should be taken from their beds at night, put against a wall, and shot.

Edited July 3, 2007 by Mr Yogi

[hedgefunded]

Own my house, no mortagage, bear.

Looking forward to a crash so that the young can actually afford homes, and the BTL scum as they are so accurately called get shafted.

I'd happily take on a mortgage again for a larger home if prices returned to a sensible level. For now I'm just loving those interest rates.

[Realistbear]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

IMO the problem is claiming "Neither" status. "Neithers" are neither bull nor bear in theory but the tendency is for those with this label to be bullish. They are characterised by very few bearish postings but a lot of attacks against bears. Trollishness also emerges quite frequently.

IMO, members of this website should declare where they stand and take the flak accordingly. Hiding behind a non-committed label is somewhat cowardly as it allows the poster to change with the wind. Merrill Lynch have a huge bronze statue in front of their HQ in NY that depicts a bull and bear in conflict. This symbolises the market realities. "Neither" just does not fit in with the spirit of investing. Those who use the non-committed label may genuinely be clueless as to what is going on but should still have the courage of their convictions to take a stand.

So, my advice is to quit hiding behind a "Neither" label and stand up for your convictions one way or the other. If you think the market is going to crash in the near or even medium term you are a bear. If you think Gordon's miracle of never ending HPI-MEW-BTL is a good thing and will go on for the long term you are a bull.

Edit: I do not own a house but have housing provided through my job. I lean toward a slightly bearish position with no confidence in Gordon's ability to sustain the miracle economy beyond 2008. IMO, the turnaround in property prices was Q2 2007 with lagging indicators to confirm in due course. I expect to see non-inflation adjusted falls of between 40-60% over the course of the next 7-10 years.

Edited July 3, 2007 by Realistbear

[jonpo]

OK I am a Bear on Global residential property of anglophone nations (inc UK) .

the following is my position disclosure today:

I am actually short on Property (shares uk builders).

UK residential housing I am Flat ( no house )

GBP (Long) (savings account icesave)

US Dollars. ( Short ) hey no opinion. just trading what I see.

CAD ( Long ) no opinion just trading what I see.

Equities

Global equities (Long) Pension.

GamingVC holdings GVC.L ( Long ) its yeilding 17% how cool it that

No Debt - except margin debt against liquid financial instruments.

[this_prisoner_is_opting_out]

Homeowner. Bear. Mortgaged (2 x salary). Living & working mainland europe.

I left the UK in 99 to experience other cultures & "do something with my life" - in the interim the UK went to sh*t and I'll be bolloxed if I'm spending 130k (+!) on a crappy studio flat. Isn't there anyone else out there like me thinking "I'm not paying that for that ?"

But if I end up renting, so be it. Worse things happen at sea et al.

Edit: At twice my (lone!) salary, I have a detached house in the countryside with a paddock for my horses. Why on God's earth would I trade that for a job at the UK head office and pay through the nose to live in a dump?

Edited July 3, 2007 by this_prisoner_is_opting_out

[Ologhai Jones]

IMO the problem is claiming "Neither" status. "Neithers" are neither bull nor bear in theory but the tendency is for those with this label to be bullish. They are characterised by very few bearish postings but a lot of attacks against bears. Trollishness also emerges quite frequently.

IMO, members of this website should declare where they stand and take the flak accordingly. Hiding behind a non-committed label is somewhat cowardly as it allows the poster to change with the wind. Merrill Lynch have a huge bronze statue in front of their HQ in NY that depicts a bull and bear in conflict. This symbolises the market realities. "Neither" just does not fit in with the spirit of investing. Those who use the non-committed label may genuinely be clueless as to what is going on but should still have the courage of their convictions to take a stand.

I don't agree that a person who has strong beliefs (one way or the other) is inherently courageous[1]. Nor do I think that having strong beliefs per se is necessarily a good thing.

I am a 'Neither'. As I have said before, on a scale of 1 to 10 (bull to bear), I'm probably a 6 or 7, but that may be down to my reading HPC.co.uk, along with my own desire for a crash (starting immediately after I've sold my house, of course! )

For me to claim to be anything other than a 'Neither', when sometimes I'm a little worried about whether my plan to STR (my house in on the market now) is in fact the right thing to do, would just be asserting something about myself which is untrue.

I hereby claim the right to be a devoutly passionate agnostic!

[1] As an example of that, I don't think it takes much courage to be a bear around here.

[Without_a_Paddle]

IMO the problem is claiming "Neither" status. "Neithers" are neither bull nor bear in theory but the tendency is for those with this label to be bullish. They are characterised by very few bearish postings but a lot of attacks against bears. Trollishness also emerges quite frequently.

IMO, members of this website should declare where they stand and take the flak accordingly. Hiding behind a non-committed label is somewhat cowardly as it allows the poster to change with the wind. Merrill Lynch have a huge bronze statue in front of their HQ in NY that depicts a bull and bear in conflict. This symbolises the market realities. "Neither" just does not fit in with the spirit of investing. Those who use the non-committed label may genuinely be clueless as to what is going on but should still have the courage of their convictions to take a stand.

So, my advice is to quit hiding behind a "Neither" label and stand up for your convictions one way or the other. If you think the market is going to crash in the near or even medium term you are a bear. If you think Gordon's miracle of never ending HPI-MEW-BTL is a good thing and will go on for the long term you are a bull.

Edit: I do not own a house but have housing provided through my job. I lean toward a slightly bearish position with no confidence in Gordon's ability to sustain the miracle economy beyond 2008. IMO, the turnaround in property prices was Q2 2007 with lagging indicators to confirm in due course. I expect to see non-inflation adjusted falls of between 40-60% over the course of the next 7-10 years.

What if someone thinks prices will stagnate in nominal terms?

That doesn't fit your category of bear or bull.

You reckon it's started already and will fall 60% nominally over 10 years? You expect to see a 10 year long recession/depression?

Are you sure about that?

I lean toward a slightly bearish position

(see note above about 10 year depression)

[VeryMeanReversion]

I owned a house and sold it for job reasons. As a bear, I decided not to buy in until the market returned to normal.

VMR.

[stuckmojo]

I own a house outright in Italy, with a few acres of land and wood around it. And I am a bear.

[Willy Weasel]

Edit: I do not own a house but have housing provided through my job. I lean toward a slightly bearish position with no confidence in Gordon's ability to sustain the miracle economy beyond 2008. IMO, the turnaround in property prices was Q2 2007 with lagging indicators to confirm in due course. I expect to see non-inflation adjusted falls of between 40-60% over the course of the next 7-10 years.

Good one, RB

[Guest Winnie]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

Papillon, you are actually Wrongmove or one of the other trolls who has got a new email address and come in under a pseudonym to try to make the site more troll infested. This post is just like wongmove's little poll two days ago only worded differently. YOU FOOL NOBODY - don't think you do. PS are you a student/ and or do you lokk like David Miliband?

[Willy Weasel]

I personally think Papillon isn't a troll and it is dangerous to label anyone disagreeing with your views as a troll just so you don't have to question your own beliefs. FWIW I think Papillon's arguments are all weak and the premise of this thread is particularly so because if not owning a house makes you emotionally attached to HPC so owning a house presumably makes you emotionally attached to HPI.

Papillon has fallen into his own trap. He is so wrapped up in the fact that he has 'made' £350K that he can't bear the thought that the HPC will wipe out all of that 'wealth'

My advice to Papillon is sell your house quick and realise your equity and you'll be able to sleep better at night

[bearORbullENIGMA]

IMO the problem is claiming "Neither" status. "Neithers" are neither bull nor bear in theory but the tendency is for those with this label to be bullish. They are characterised by very few bearish postings but a lot of attacks against bears. Trollishness also emerges quite frequently.

IMO, members of this website should declare where they stand and take the flak accordingly. Hiding behind a non-committed label is somewhat cowardly as it allows the poster to change with the wind. Merrill Lynch have a huge bronze statue in front of their HQ in NY that depicts a bull and bear in conflict. This symbolises the market realities. "Neither" just does not fit in with the spirit of investing. Those who use the non-committed label may genuinely be clueless as to what is going on but should still have the courage of their convictions to take a stand.

So, my advice is to quit hiding behind a "Neither" label and stand up for your convictions one way or the other. If you think the market is going to crash in the near or even medium term you are a bear. If you think Gordon's miracle of never ending HPI-MEW-BTL is a good thing and will go on for the long term you are a bull.

Edit: I do not own a house but have housing provided through my job. I lean toward a slightly bearish position with no confidence in Gordon's ability to sustain the miracle economy beyond 2008. IMO, the turnaround in property prices was Q2 2007 with lagging indicators to confirm in due course. I expect to see non-inflation adjusted falls of between 40-60% over the course of the next 7-10 years.

But anybody who wishes to remain open to rational opinion & arguement is doing themselves a great disservice by deciding to be either Bear or Bull. Psychologically once one has aligned oneself with one camp you become unconsciously more receptive to the opinions of those in that clique.

Same as people who decide they are Conservatives or Labourites.....they unconsciously align their belief systems with that of their chosen party rather than remaining true independent free thinkers.

The label becomes the identity we strive to be consistent with in an attempt to maintain integrity.

[bearORbullENIGMA]

I made my first post here tonight and was drided as a Troll. If you look at my posting i think you will see it was a rational post well presented. However it was greeted with a flurry of insults and accusations. It's a shame such a great website is being ruined by a few. Anyway it got me thinking of how emotionally dependent people on here are on there being a HPC, mainly due to them not owning a house. I can understand that.

Anyway could you please answer the question below?

What is your situation in relation to the property market? (are you renting, own a house, got a large mortgage, a BTL investor etc). I have a sneaky suspicion that the majority of Bears on here do not own a house and are waiting on a HPC so they can get on to the property ladder.

It would be a shame if the Bear argument was based on the emotion of not having a house.

Anyway enough rambling :

House owner or not, bear or Bull?

I think it's the whole, 'here is my huge long list which i just came up with "off the top of my head" now prove me wrong' blitzing style that made people feel like they were being visited by a troll.

He just came across as somebody who wanted to prove everybody on here wrong rather than genuinely discuss things.

People like that should be branded trolls & forced to watch videos like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pAbEVd-m_s

But that said....he has a point about some of the bears being as close minded as the bulls.

[Monopoly]

Homeowner. Bear. Mortgaged (2 x salary). Living & working mainland europe.

I left the UK in 99 to experience other cultures & "do something with my life" - in the interim the UK went to sh*t and I'll be bolloxed if I'm spending 130k (+!) on a crappy studio flat. Isn't there anyone else out there like me thinking "I'm not paying that for that ?"

But if I end up renting, so be it. Worse things happen at sea et al.

Edit: At twice my (lone!) salary, I have a detached house in the countryside with a paddock for my horses. Why on God's earth would I trade that for a job at the UK head office and pay through the nose to live in a dump?

Hi Prisoner..were do you live? If you don't mind me asking