papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Here is a list of why there will be no HPC There is a shortage of supply of UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The UK population is continuing to increase through immigration increasing demand for UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The majority of the population in the UK has a mind set that will always want to ‘own’ their house. This will continue to push prices up. In the 1970’s 80’s families consisted of one bread winner, average house prices were proportional to the average salary of the sole breadwinner. In the late 80’s and nineties and increasingly more so now there are two bread winners per family, average house prices will be proportional to the average salary of joint breadwinners. This will continue to push prices up. Divorce and separation rates have increased dramatically in the last 20 years, there are many more family units fuelling demand. This will continue to push prices up. A large majority of the previous generation has amassed great wealth, and is now acting as guarantor for their offspring or in many cases providing 25% deposit for their offspring. They are sharing their wealth. This will continue to push prices up. Through globalization real wealth has increased dramatically over the last 20 years in the UK. This will continue to push prices up. There is an increasing amount of wealth coming into London from abroad which is radiating outwards throughout the UK economy. This will continue to push prices up. Liberated economies with the ‘new rich’ are looking at places to put their money. The UK housing market is a prime spot. This will continue to push prices up. Land is a finite resource, like oil the price will increase exponentially long term. This will continue to push prices up. Unlike the stock market the UK housing market is very illiquid, if people cannot get a greater price for a property then they bought it for then the majority of people will not sell, limiting supply. This will continue to push prices up. There has been a huge increase in BTL landlords. Swathes of middle class families have invested in BTL and have limited supply. This will continue to push prices up. Yes FTB's have dropped to 8.9%, so what do they do, they rent. This provides BTL landlords with more income and after they have bought up all the 2 bedroom apartments they are moving on to 3/4 bedroom semi's and detached. he amount of housing that will be owned by BTL landlords will continue to increase longterm. The majority of BTL landlords will be holding on to their properties for long term to provide a regular pension income in the future. They will not be panicked as many have secure jobs with high incomes which will see them through any hard times if IR's rise This will continue to push prices up. When you buy and sell a 'home' you do not pay any tax on it making it a convenient investment vehicle. This will continue to push prices up. Mortgage suppliers and banks have relaxed their lending criteria and even if they tighten it up the market will remain way more liquid then it has in previous generations. The UK economy has boomed for nearly 15 years now and will continue to do so: GDP - 2.9% Q1 2007, Industrial Production +0.4% in April, Consumer Prices up 2.5% YoY, unemployment at 5.5%, rates at 5.5%, FTSE at record highs, Sterling through the roof and the least protectionist, most business oriented climate in the world. This will continue to push property prices up. Unemployment in the UK is still falling. This will continue to push prices up. Interest rates, even though they are rising, are still very low and are predicted to peak at 6.0 – 6.5%. This is still a historically low figure. This will continue to push prices up. There is a huge supply of first time buyers waiting in the wings, who have been saving their deposit over the years and will continue to drip feed into the market when they can afford to. This will continue to push prices up. There have been so many false predictions of a house price crash since 2000. A HPC is not going to happen. It’s now June 2007, there have been a number of IR rises since august and the latest figures show that HPI increased by 0.9% increasing annualized inflation to 11.1%. The false doomsayers will continue to push prices up. Of course I believe you will not get the double percentage annual returns of the past 8-9 years, however house prices will continue to rise in low single digit growth or slightly above the rate of inflation. There will be a huge generation of people who will never be able to afford a house, sad as this may seem….what is wrong with renting? Papillon Thoses are just off the top of my head, i'm sure you guys can think of more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluminati Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 If that is what you really think, then far be it for anyone to wake you from your dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearORbullENIGMA Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Here is a list of why there will be no HPCThere is a shortage of supply of UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The UK population is continuing to increase through immigration increasing demand for UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The majority of the population in the UK has a mind set that will always want to ‘own’ their house. This will continue to push prices up. In the 1970’s 80’s families consisted of one bread winner, average house prices were proportional to the average salary of the sole breadwinner. In the late 80’s and nineties and increasingly more so now there are two bread winners per family, average house prices will be proportional to the average salary of joint breadwinners. This will continue to push prices up. Divorce and separation rates have increased dramatically in the last 20 years, there are many more family units fuelling demand. This will continue to push prices up. A large majority of the previous generation has amassed great wealth, and is now acting as guarantor for their offspring or in many cases providing 25% deposit for their offspring. They are sharing their wealth. This will continue to push prices up. Through globalization real wealth has increased dramatically over the last 20 years in the UK. This will continue to push prices up. There is an increasing amount of wealth coming into London from abroad which is radiating outwards throughout the UK economy. This will continue to push prices up. Liberated economies with the ‘new rich’ are looking at places to put their money. The UK housing market is a prime spot. This will continue to push prices up. Land is a finite resource, like oil the price will increase exponentially long term. This will continue to push prices up. Unlike the stock market the UK housing market is very illiquid, if people cannot get a greater price for a property then they bought it for then the majority of people will not sell, limiting supply. This will continue to push prices up. There has been a huge increase in BTL landlords. Swathes of middle class families have invested in BTL and have limited supply. This will continue to push prices up. Yes FTB's have dropped to 8.9%, so what do they do, they rent. This provides BTL landlords with more income and after they have bought up all the 2 bedroom apartments they are moving on to 3/4 bedroom semi's and detached. he amount of housing that will be owned by BTL landlords will continue to increase longterm. The majority of BTL landlords will be holding on to their properties for long term to provide a regular pension income in the future. They will not be panicked as many have secure jobs with high incomes which will see them through any hard times if IR's rise This will continue to push prices up. When you buy and sell a 'home' you do not pay any tax on it making it a convenient investment vehicle. This will continue to push prices up. Mortgage suppliers and banks have relaxed their lending criteria and even if they tighten it up the market will remain way more liquid then it has in previous generations. The UK economy has boomed for nearly 15 years now and will continue to do so: GDP - 2.9% Q1 2007, Industrial Production +0.4% in April, Consumer Prices up 2.5% YoY, unemployment at 5.5%, rates at 5.5%, FTSE at record highs, Sterling through the roof and the least protectionist, most business oriented climate in the world. This will continue to push property prices up. Unemployment in the UK is still falling. This will continue to push prices up. Interest rates, even though they are rising, are still very low and are predicted to peak at 6.0 – 6.5%. This is still a historically low figure. This will continue to push prices up. There is a huge supply of first time buyers waiting in the wings, who have been saving their deposit over the years and will continue to drip feed into the market when they can afford to. This will continue to push prices up. There have been so many false predictions of a house price crash since 2000. A HPC is not going to happen. It’s now June 2007, there have been a number of IR rises since august and the latest figures show that HPI increased by 0.9% increasing annualized inflation to 11.1%. The false doomsayers will continue to push prices up. Of course I believe you will not get the double percentage annual returns of the past 8-9 years, however house prices will continue to rise in low single digit growth or slightly above the rate of inflation. There will be a huge generation of people who will never be able to afford a house, sad as this may seem….what is wrong with renting? Papillon Thoses are just off the top of my head, i'm sure you guys can think of more. Just watch the following video, it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that everything you have just said is wrong: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1--BwHjsPDU It systematically destroys each of your points one by one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 If that is what you really think, then far be it for anyone to wake you from your dream. Yes a very well reasoned arguement........alot of info in there, great information...some good points......I take back all my facts...I was wrong.... Another reason that property prices will be kept higher is the existence of blinkered individuals like thew one above who have been praying for a crash for years but cannot produce a coherent arguement. I thought this was a discussion site? like Macbeth wading through the river of blood it is harder for all you bears who have been falsely predicting a HPC to admit you were wrong back in 2003,04,05,06 and are wrong now 2007 and will be wrong next year in 2008!! P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 Just watch the following video, it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that everything you have just said is wrong:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1--BwHjsPDU It systematically destroys each of your points one by one! Yes a great video showing the poor state of housing in Hartlepool...and?? Once again another inane believer in a HPC with no reasoned arguement. I suppose if one has been a false prophet for 5 years it's hard to admit it. P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 (edited) Papillon, I assume you are borrowing to buy up as many properties as possible then?? Also, what brought you to a website called "HousePriceCrash" ? Edited July 2, 2007 by OzzMosiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Here is a list of why there will be no HPCThere is a shortage of supply of UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The UK population is continuing to increase through immigration increasing demand for UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The majority of the population in the UK has a mind set that will always want to ‘own’ their house. This will continue to push prices up. In the 1970’s 80’s families consisted of one bread winner, average house prices were proportional to the average salary of the sole breadwinner. In the late 80’s and nineties and increasingly more so now there are two bread winners per family, average house prices will be proportional to the average salary of joint breadwinners. This will continue to push prices up. Divorce and separation rates have increased dramatically in the last 20 years, there are many more family units fuelling demand. This will continue to push prices up. A large majority of the previous generation has amassed great wealth, and is now acting as guarantor for their offspring or in many cases providing 25% deposit for their offspring. They are sharing their wealth. This will continue to push prices up. Through globalization real wealth has increased dramatically over the last 20 years in the UK. This will continue to push prices up. There is an increasing amount of wealth coming into London from abroad which is radiating outwards throughout the UK economy. This will continue to push prices up. Liberated economies with the ‘new rich’ are looking at places to put their money. The UK housing market is a prime spot. This will continue to push prices up. Land is a finite resource, like oil the price will increase exponentially long term. This will continue to push prices up. Unlike the stock market the UK housing market is very illiquid, if people cannot get a greater price for a property then they bought it for then the majority of people will not sell, limiting supply. This will continue to push prices up. There has been a huge increase in BTL landlords. Swathes of middle class families have invested in BTL and have limited supply. This will continue to push prices up. Yes FTB's have dropped to 8.9%, so what do they do, they rent. This provides BTL landlords with more income and after they have bought up all the 2 bedroom apartments they are moving on to 3/4 bedroom semi's and detached. he amount of housing that will be owned by BTL landlords will continue to increase longterm. The majority of BTL landlords will be holding on to their properties for long term to provide a regular pension income in the future. They will not be panicked as many have secure jobs with high incomes which will see them through any hard times if IR's rise This will continue to push prices up. When you buy and sell a 'home' you do not pay any tax on it making it a convenient investment vehicle. This will continue to push prices up. Mortgage suppliers and banks have relaxed their lending criteria and even if they tighten it up the market will remain way more liquid then it has in previous generations. The UK economy has boomed for nearly 15 years now and will continue to do so: GDP - 2.9% Q1 2007, Industrial Production +0.4% in April, Consumer Prices up 2.5% YoY, unemployment at 5.5%, rates at 5.5%, FTSE at record highs, Sterling through the roof and the least protectionist, most business oriented climate in the world. This will continue to push property prices up. Unemployment in the UK is still falling. This will continue to push prices up. Interest rates, even though they are rising, are still very low and are predicted to peak at 6.0 – 6.5%. This is still a historically low figure. This will continue to push prices up. There is a huge supply of first time buyers waiting in the wings, who have been saving their deposit over the years and will continue to drip feed into the market when they can afford to. This will continue to push prices up. There have been so many false predictions of a house price crash since 2000. A HPC is not going to happen. It’s now June 2007, there have been a number of IR rises since august and the latest figures show that HPI increased by 0.9% increasing annualized inflation to 11.1%. The false doomsayers will continue to push prices up. Of course I believe you will not get the double percentage annual returns of the past 8-9 years, however house prices will continue to rise in low single digit growth or slightly above the rate of inflation. There will be a huge generation of people who will never be able to afford a house, sad as this may seem….what is wrong with renting? Papillon Thoses are just off the top of my head, i'm sure you guys can think of more. Close the door on the way out will you ....................................................................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Yes a great video showing the poor state of housing in Hartlepool...and??Once again another inane believer in a HPC with no reasoned arguement. I suppose if one has been a false prophet for 5 years it's hard to admit it. P here's a reasoned argument - you sir, are a prize thickwit case proven i think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearORbullENIGMA Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Yes a great video showing the poor state of housing in Hartlepool...and??Once again another inane believer in a HPC with no reasoned arguement. I suppose if one has been a false prophet for 5 years it's hard to admit it. P Yeh, sorry......that was the wrong video i posted.......here is the one with all the facts in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAeMQ_5Tkfw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 Yeh, sorry......that was the wrong video i posted.......here is the one with all the facts in:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAeMQ_5Tkfw Bloody hell...that is good...I may have been wrong about there being no HPC... Papillon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cletus VanDamme Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 What numpty moderator gave this guy thread-starting permission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Papillon Your list of reasons would be worthy of a detailed critique if I felt you were genuine. ATM I suspect you are not really interested in a reasoned debate. If, however, you are then please read the report linked below and let me have your thoughts: Tuffers http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=4202 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Is there one new/original point made in the OP 'essay'? I really havn't got the energy to debunk it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdon Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 there are some points in P's post that ought to be addressed one by one - it's no good posting rudeness in response to a detailed and lengthy article. indeed some of the points are valid.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 What numpty moderator gave this guy thread-starting permission I did. A few weeks back a member complained to me that bullish threads were not put up, this is the only one which has been posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 What numpty moderator gave this guy thread-starting permission I listed a number of facts to support my case of why I think there will be no HPC. All I have got back is drivel. What numpty moderator has allowed these replies to a rationally presented arguement. Don't you see you are all a herd with an emotional stake in a HPC? This is why there will be no HPC, not until the last bear turns bull. Through buying and selling property since 1997 i have gone from a 2 bed flat with a 90K mortgage to a 4 bedroom detached house with a 100k mortgage and 350K equity... The majority of people on here believe in a crash only because they want a house so badly....it's sad really. Papillon ps Any logical case for a HPC welcome. And I promise not to resort to the inanae babbling of the previous posters who have replied to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I did. A few weeks back a member complained to me that bullish threads were not put up, this is the only one which has been posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluminati Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Papillon, you didnt say which Estate Agent you worked for ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I listed a number of facts to support my case of why I think there will be no HPC. All I have got back is drivel. What numpty moderator has allowed these replies to a rationally presented arguement. Don't you see you are all a herd with an emotional stake in a HPC? This is why there will be no HPC, not until the last bear turns bull. Through buying and selling property since 1997 i have gone from a 2 bed flat with a 90K mortgage to a 4 bedroom detached house with a 100k mortgage and 350K equity... The majority of people on here believe in a crash only because they want a house so badly....it's sad really. Papillon ps Any logical case for a HPC welcome. And I promise not to resort to the inanae babbling of the previous posters who have replied to me. Papillon I couldn't see any facts in your OP merely assertions that certain things were facts which is very different. Read the report I have posted above. Please would you also provide the statistics for the number of homeless families in this country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papillon Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 PapillonYour list of reasons would be worthy of a detailed critique if I felt you were genuine. ATM I suspect you are not really interested in a reasoned debate. If, however, you are then please read the report linked below and let me have your thoughts: Tuffers http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=4202 Fantastic, a person who is rational. Thankyou i will read and get back to you. Also well done to Charlie the tramp. This site has some excellent stuff on it but is being devalued because Bull arguements cannot be uttered. People have become so blinkered on here. As blinkered as they view the herd they mock. How Ironic Papillon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cletus VanDamme Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I did. A few weeks back a member complained to me that bullish threads were not put up, this is the only one which has been posted. Can't you allow CO to post back here instead? Better to stop the bull drain than allow trolls like papillon on board. A bit off topic, so you can remove this if you like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthereyet Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Here is a list of why there will be no HPCThere is a shortage of supply of UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The UK population is continuing to increase through immigration increasing demand for UK housing. This will continue to push prices up. The majority of the population in the UK has a mind set that will always want to 'own' their house. This will continue to push prices up. In the 1970's 80's families consisted of one bread winner, average house prices were proportional to the average salary of the sole breadwinner. In the late 80's and nineties and increasingly more so now there are two bread winners per family, average house prices will be proportional to the average salary of joint breadwinners. This will continue to push prices up. Divorce and separation rates have increased dramatically in the last 20 years, there are many more family units fuelling demand. This will continue to push prices up. A large majority of the previous generation has amassed great wealth, and is now acting as guarantor for their offspring or in many cases providing 25% deposit for their offspring. They are sharing their wealth. This will continue to push prices up. Through globalization real wealth has increased dramatically over the last 20 years in the UK. This will continue to push prices up. There is an increasing amount of wealth coming into London from abroad which is radiating outwards throughout the UK economy. This will continue to push prices up. Liberated economies with the 'new rich' are looking at places to put their money. The UK housing market is a prime spot. This will continue to push prices up. Land is a finite resource, like oil the price will increase exponentially long term. This will continue to push prices up. Unlike the stock market the UK housing market is very illiquid, if people cannot get a greater price for a property then they bought it for then the majority of people will not sell, limiting supply. This will continue to push prices up. There has been a huge increase in BTL landlords. Swathes of middle class families have invested in BTL and have limited supply. This will continue to push prices up. Yes FTB's have dropped to 8.9%, so what do they do, they rent. This provides BTL landlords with more income and after they have bought up all the 2 bedroom apartments they are moving on to 3/4 bedroom semi's and detached. he amount of housing that will be owned by BTL landlords will continue to increase longterm. The majority of BTL landlords will be holding on to their properties for long term to provide a regular pension income in the future. They will not be panicked as many have secure jobs with high incomes which will see them through any hard times if IR's rise This will continue to push prices up. When you buy and sell a 'home' you do not pay any tax on it making it a convenient investment vehicle. This will continue to push prices up. Mortgage suppliers and banks have relaxed their lending criteria and even if they tighten it up the market will remain way more liquid then it has in previous generations. The UK economy has boomed for nearly 15 years now and will continue to do so: GDP - 2.9% Q1 2007, Industrial Production +0.4% in April, Consumer Prices up 2.5% YoY, unemployment at 5.5%, rates at 5.5%, FTSE at record highs, Sterling through the roof and the least protectionist, most business oriented climate in the world. This will continue to push property prices up. Unemployment in the UK is still falling. This will continue to push prices up. Interest rates, even though they are rising, are still very low and are predicted to peak at 6.0 – 6.5%. This is still a historically low figure. This will continue to push prices up. There is a huge supply of first time buyers waiting in the wings, who have been saving their deposit over the years and will continue to drip feed into the market when they can afford to. This will continue to push prices up. There have been so many false predictions of a house price crash since 2000. A HPC is not going to happen. It's now June 2007, there have been a number of IR rises since august and the latest figures show that HPI increased by 0.9% increasing annualized inflation to 11.1%. The false doomsayers will continue to push prices up. Of course I believe you will not get the double percentage annual returns of the past 8-9 years, however house prices will continue to rise in low single digit growth or slightly above the rate of inflation. There will be a huge generation of people who will never be able to afford a house, sad as this may seem….what is wrong with renting? Papillon Thoses are just off the top of my head, i'm sure you guys can think of more. Buy a local rag plenty of houses for sale,Wheres the shortage of houses mate ,same houses for sale week after week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Sam Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Here is a list of why there will be no HPC etc etc Fair play Papillon! It doesn't do any harm to shake things up a bit! It's not a debate if there's no opposition. I don't agree with all the points (or any for that matter!) but this thread is a really useful indicator of why house prices are still going up. Obviously a lot of people must share similar views. What history has taught us is that a price correction will always occur, it's just not that easy to predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I listed a number of facts to support my case of why I think there will be no HPC. All I have got back is drivel. What numpty moderator has allowed these replies to a rationally presented arguement. Don't you see you are all a herd with an emotional stake in a HPC? This is why there will be no HPC, not until the last bear turns bull. Through buying and selling property since 1997 i have gone from a 2 bed flat with a 90K mortgage to a 4 bedroom detached house with a 100k mortgage and 350K equity... The majority of people on here believe in a crash only because they want a house so badly....it's sad really. Papillon ps Any logical case for a HPC welcome. And I promise not to resort to the inanae babbling of the previous posters who have replied to me. you've only managed to accumulate 350K equity after 10 years of 'playing houses' Hope you didn't give up the day job. Most who owned one property worth 150K with a 90K mortgage back in '97 would have seen the same returns without having moved...mates of mine who 'played houses' over the past ten years have had higher tax bills in a year than your total equity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Can't you allow CO to post back here instead? Better to stop the bull drain than allow trolls like papillon on board.A bit off topic, so you can remove this if you like. How many times do you have to be told? CO is free to post here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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