thedebtisreal Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Don't worry, I don't have a little bird, but watching the events of the past few weeks unfold, a picture seems to emerge. The outgoing governor King voting for an increase The sharp movement in the bond yield The backing of the new deputy governor Gieve Persisting hawkishness of Brown's latest recruits, Sentance and Besley The trouble in the credit markets Brown's promise, to fix the housing market (and since when has he ever cut taxes to achieve anything) while distancing himself from any crash fallout The eco-towns and the need for investment cash flows The tightening in Japan The complete refusal of the fed to lower rates The unending rising of the euro rate Blair and his smug portfolio of property..... All the hawkish four needs is one jobsworth from the doves and a deal can be done. Discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harris Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 It will be zero. They will wait a month due to negative sales and other figures and the potential impact of the terror alert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JumboMills Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 It will be zero. They will wait a month due to negative sales and other figures and the potential impact of the terror alert. I agree. There will be no rise this month. Next month yes, but not at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Don't worry, I don't have a little bird, but watching the events of the past few weeks unfold, a picture seems to emerge. What has PG's bird been beeping lately about rates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 It will be zero. They will wait a month due to negative sales and other figures and the potential impact of the terror alert. 29th June 2007 http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...13-17807050.htm Oil futures spiked above $70 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since Sept. 1 on a government report that showed gasoline inventories dropped unexpectedly as the summer driving season neared its peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 0.25% hike is a cert IMO. I've already bet my best pants on it dammit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Smart money is on a .25% increase, so who knows. Of the choice between 0 and 0.5 - it'd have to be zero. No appetite for a market shuddering 0.5% IMHO - although probably warranted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
His Tonyness Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I only 50/50 on whether a 0.25% increase is a done deal therefore my betting money will stay firmly in my pocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 0.25% hike is a cert IMO. I've already bet my best pants on it dammit! you have indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ayatollah Buggeri Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 If they do hold, that will increase the likelihood of a snap election, IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 They are going up. Look at the Betfair odds and gilt yields. If they don't go up the BoE will have to print more money to buy treasury debt, because the bond market will just bid them down, and that will only expand M3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 Smart money is on a .25% increase, so who knows.Of the choice between 0 and 0.5 - it'd have to be zero. No appetite for a market shuddering 0.5% IMHO - although probably warranted. The way the market is right now, a 0.5% increase would cause less of a shudder than a hold. I'm just saying, the appetite for debt among investors took a HUGE fall last week. Gordie's gonna want to draw investment for all his eco plans. He's not going to be able to do that if he let's the pound take a hit. I'm not saying it is the most likely outcome, this is more intuition than research, but 6% by Friday has a weird ring to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Jones Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 40% chance of a 0.25, 40% of a hold, 20% of a 0.5% raise. In my view. Forced to bet I'd go for 0.25%. ANDY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyGuru Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 you all actually 'heard it first' last month, after they held again. The little birdy tweeted a rise of 0.25% for July - search for the thread if you are interested. His tweetings are no better than 50-50 at the mo though, so I wouldn't bet on him. Even though he does have lovely plumage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancypants Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 This sort of pre-emptive, decisive and strong action is simply not the MPC's forte, I'm afraid. A 0.5% hike will come about at some point, but not until the public & markets have been prepared first. Such a hike was mentioned in the minutes when they hiked the last time, the next step would be for one or two to vote for it... but a majority? That's a few months away, I reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6260140.stm End of story really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 (edited) .25% rise, betfair seems spot on with predictions, betfair are predicting .25% as an almost dead cert, .5% is at 80 to 1, no change at 5 to 1 Edited July 2, 2007 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted July 2, 2007 Author Share Posted July 2, 2007 This sort of pre-emptive, decisive and strong action is simply not the MPC's forte, I'm afraid. Remember August 2006? Remember January? The MPC is not adverse to a few nast surprises. We'll see. I'll be around Thursday to gloat if I'm right. If I'm wrong, expect this thread to die a death and (in true HPC style) me never mention it again and pretend I said 0.25% all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 One thing's for sure: 0.5% would KILL the UK property market instantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Much as I'd like to see it happen, I can't see them going from refusing to raise 0.25% one month to raising 0.5% the next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JumboMills Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6260140.stm End of story really? Why? Coz the BBC in their infinite wisdom say so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 (edited) Why? Coz the BBC in their infinite wisdom say so? because betfair (and the markets) are predicting .25% as an almost dead cert (1 to 1), the markets aren't wrong when the odds are at 80 to 1 as is the case for a .5% rise. No change is ALOT more likely than a .5% rise.. If you really think a .5% rise it possible, but a quid on at betfair and get back 80 quid. If you know there will be a .5% rise, you don't tell people on a forum, you put 1000k on a .5% rise and make 80k tax free! Of course if you know, others also know the market will shift with in minutes and it will be 1 to 1 on a .5%. Its not therefore were getting a .25% rise (or possibly a nochange as an outsider) Can we have some realism please folks...? Edited July 2, 2007 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orbital Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 we've had months of occasional 0.25 rises and ya think they are suddenly gonna go for a 0.5? Personally, im not convinced. Prob get good odds it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrBob Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I only 50/50 on whether a 0.25% increase is a done deal therefore my betting money will stay firmly in my pocket. I'm fairly certain rates will go up by 0.25%, but won't be betting on it because the odds are so poor. BTW: I put £50 on a rise last month with odds of 6:1 and lost. I don't know whether I should be chuffed or disappointed that the vote turned out to be so close... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JumboMills Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 If I were a betting man, I'd say 5/1 for a hold is worth a few quid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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