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eric pebble

Buy-to-let Bubble 'will Burst';

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Buy-to-let bubble 'will burst'

The buy-to-let housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, a leading City commentator warned today.

James Hamilton, banking analyst at Numis Securities, said: 'A lot of people have made very good money in the past from buy-to-let. But if the housing market goes flat, there is every likelihood that many of them will want to sell up.'

Hamilton warned that there were massive potential problems because many individuals have invested huge amounts of their total wealth in buy-to-let. 'Some retail investors have taken the very high risk strategy with such a high concentration of their money in a single asset class.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

And more here - World housing crash fears.... - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

........... love it!

Edited by eric pebble

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Buy-to-let bubble 'will burst'

The buy-to-let housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, a leading City commentator warned today.

James Hamilton, banking analyst at Numis Securities, said: 'A lot of people have made very good money in the past from buy-to-let. But if the housing market goes flat, there is every likelihood that many of them will want to sell up.'

Hamilton warned that there were massive potential problems because many individuals have invested huge amounts of their total wealth in buy-to-let. 'Some retail investors have taken the very high risk strategy with such a high concentration of their money in a single asset class.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

And more here - World housing crash fears.... - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

........... love it!

All this will dwarf previous scandals... - http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals/

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But the bank rejected Hamilton's warning. 'Hypothetically he's right,' said a source close to B&B. 'But that's not what the trading statement is saying. Of course, if the buy-to-let market goes into meltdown B&B would be in trouble but then we'd all be in trouble.'

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"But the bank rejected Hamilton's warning. 'Hypothetically he's right,' said a source close to B&B. 'But that's not what the trading statement is saying. Of course, if the buy-to-let market goes into meltdown B&B would be in trouble but then we'd all be in trouble.'

Mmm.... smell the fear....

Edited by eric pebble

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... B&B would be in trouble but then we'd all be in trouble.

I wouldn't be.

And neither, I suspect, would a LOT of people (particularly if they had no association with insanely reckless lenders).

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James Hamilton, banking analyst at Numis Securities, said: 'A lot of people have made very good money in the past from buy-to-let. But if the housing market goes flat, there is every likelihood that many of them will want to sell up.'

But the bulls have been telling us that BTLs are 'in it for the long term'? Surely they'd never, ever sell up and cause a massive and rapid crash in the housing market?

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But the bulls have been telling us that BTLs are 'in it for the long term'? Surely they'd never, ever sell up and cause a massive and rapid crash in the housing market?

In my opinion, the majority fails to understand how many amateurs jumped on the BTL bandwagon with little or no equity (read, deposits). They will have to sell, and quickly, if they don't want to be buried by debt.

My former landlord is doing precisely that.

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
In my opinion, the majority fails to understand how many amateurs jumped on the BTL bandwagon with little or no equity (read, deposits). They will have to sell, and quickly, if they don't want to be buried by debt.

My former landlord is doing precisely that.

How long has he been doing btl, how many properties is he selling and what type of property are they?

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How long has he been doing btl, how many properties is he selling and what type of property are they?

Just thought i would jump on the bear bandwagon. I was just talking to a friend who is on a £140,000 IO mortgage, it is fixed at 4.5%, But is up for renewal this september!! He is having a meeting tomorrow with a Mortgage Advisor!! Whats the damage going to be??

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But the bulls have been telling us that BTLs are 'in it for the long term'? Surely they'd never, ever sell up and cause a massive and rapid crash in the housing market?

They will sell as its crashing, with many selling near the bottom. Always happens with every bubble.

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Many FTBs let thier supposed 'residential property'.

Then there are all those LLs who rent for cash often to immigrants.

Some LLs cash rent cheques in Cah converter outlets as another way of hiding rents.

Child maintainence owers often pay thier rent in cash so as to keep thier finances off - book.

Spouses predenting to be separating from partners take a supposed 'residential ' mortgage then let the place.

Owners let thier existing place and buy - on withouit informing existing lender - this is widespread.

The number of properties let is far far higher than official figs give.

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Buy-to-let bubble 'will burst'

The buy-to-let housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, a leading City commentator warned today.

James Hamilton, banking analyst at Numis Securities, said: 'A lot of people have made very good money in the past from buy-to-let. But if the housing market goes flat, there is every likelihood that many of them will want to sell up.'

Hamilton warned that there were massive potential problems because many individuals have invested huge amounts of their total wealth in buy-to-let. 'Some retail investors have taken the very high risk strategy with such a high concentration of their money in a single asset class.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

And more here - World housing crash fears.... - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...oney.co.uk/news

........... love it!

Scan read.

Here's my prediction... Buy to let will be dead within 5 years.

Why bother in the first place...

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Here's my prediction... Buy to let will be dead within 5 years.

I half agree - it'll be passe, like smoking and landlines and fax machines. Something looked down on, even patronised, as quaint and naive.

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I half agree - it'll be passe, like smoking and landlines and fax machines. Something looked down on, even patronised, as quaint and naive.

but there's still a lot of people that need to rent, students, etc. not everyone willl get pasted i guess. there'll just be a real shakeout amongst the amateurs i reckon ; there should be more bargains coming to the market in due course !

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Just thought i would jump on the bear bandwagon. I was just talking to a friend who is on a £140,000 IO mortgage, it is fixed at 4.5%, But is up for renewal this september!! He is having a meeting tomorrow with a Mortgage Advisor!! Whats the damage going to be??

Probably about 25% increase in monthly mortgage (1% or 1400 a year), plus 500-1000 arrangement fee (to be added to the loan, naturally so you pay at least 2-3 times over 25 years).

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
but there's still a lot of people that need to rent, students, etc. not everyone willl get pasted i guess. there'll just be a real shakeout amongst the amateurs i reckon ; there should be more bargains coming to the market in due course !

Yes it'll be the latecomer btlers who are most vulnerable whilst the more established btlers may have increased demand on their hands if the latecomers sell their property

I'm not yet convinced we are in sight of a mass sell-off as many btlers established for more than 2 years are likely to have equity (unless they bought overpriced new-build flats!)

On the other hand the market does seem to be softening (about time - seems well over-due) so this may cause some to sell-off and a reduction in new btl - Then we'll have to see which way the market goes (and for how long) before we can really anticipate the likely results

The odd anecdote about btlers having to sell may be interesting but for it to be any real use we need to know more info such as why they are selling, how established they are, what type of property they are selling, how geared they are etc

If it's only johnny come too lately's (JC2L's) or btlers who are doing it wrong which are selling up then that's to be expected in any case (but there could be quite a lot of them I suppose...)

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I wouldn't be.

And neither, I suspect, would a LOT of people (particularly if they had no association with insanely reckless lenders).

I wouldn't be either. So that's two of us!

Just thought i would jump on the bear bandwagon. I was just talking to a friend who is on a £140,000 IO mortgage, it is fixed at 4.5%, But is up for renewal this september!! He is having a meeting tomorrow with a Mortgage Advisor!! Whats the damage going to be??

Bad. Very bad.

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Just thought i would jump on the bear bandwagon. I was just talking to a friend who is on a £140,000 IO mortgage, it is fixed at 4.5%, But is up for renewal this september!! He is having a meeting tomorrow with a Mortgage Advisor!! Whats the damage going to be??

140,000 at 4.5% is £6300 a year or £525 a month.

5% it is £7000 a year or £583.33

5.5% it is £7700 a year or £641.66 a month.

6% it is £8400 a year or £700 a month.

If interest rates had stayed the same (4.5%) then this is the same cost increase as taking out a £186,666.66 mortgage...

That is house price inflation for you.... an interest rate hike the same cost to you as borrowing a lovely £46,666.66

Interest rate hike:)

Mew was so very 2005 if you want to increase your repayments IR rises are the new Mew..

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BTL fraud case in Bradford

BTL is turning sour. :lol::lol:

Conman jailed for student flats scam

By Jenny Loweth

A conman who masterminded a large-scale student accommodation fraud in Bradford has been jailed for almost four years.

Pradip Chavda tricked investors into ploughing £100,000 into a proposed development in Sunbridge Road for students at the University of Bradford.

He pledged them £300 a month in rent per flat for two years whether the properties were occupied or not.

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Naturally.

Buy WHO WILL THEY SELL TO??

If every BTL owner becomes a seller, prices will have to fall precipitiously, until FTBers will be attracted

There was that article referring to the low savings ratio.

Are FTBers deposits' large enough for them to enter the market even if it falls? (assuming the lenders tighten their lending)

Edited by Ash4781

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There was that article referring to the low savings ratio.

Are FTBers deposits' large enough for them to enter the market even if it falls? (assuming the lenders tighten their lending)

Personally I suspect they are not, if lenders return to 75% as a basic lending requirement with 85% only being offered when a HLC is attached.

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