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gruffydd

No Change From The Mpc

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Just seen a news article which suggested Blanchflower, etc., will not cross the floor at the next MPC vote - Lomax even said 'what's the rush' when being interviewed by the house of commons.

So it looks like no change for yet another month :angry:

Edited by gruffydd

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Just seen a news article which suggested Blanchflower, etc., will not cross the floor at the next MPC vote - Lomax even said 'what's the rush' when being interviewed by the house of commons.

So it looks like no change for yet another month :angry:

C'mon gruff, forget Blanchflower, no point getting wound up about that buffoon.

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Just seen a news article which suggested Blanchflower, etc., will not cross the floor at the next MPC vote - Lomax even said 'what's the rush' when being interviewed by the house of commons.

So it looks like no change for yet another month :angry:

Gruff, I believe it will be no change, not because it's not needed, but because of the likes of Lomax, Blanchflower etc being fu***** incompetent!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
So it looks like no change for yet another month :angry:

What with 5 to 4 voting for a rise. If Mervyn goes for a rise and loses the vote two months running his credibility as Governor will be seriously damaged.

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What with 5 to 4 voting for a rise. If Mervyn goes for a rise and loses the vote two months running his credibility as Governor will be seriously damaged.

It's a good point - another vote against Merv will damage him - perhaps he'll leave for the IMF sooner rather than later - or perhaps that's the idea?

Edited by gruffydd

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...1/ccliam301.xml

Last week I suggested some members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee might be voting with an eye on the Governor's chair. After all, Mervyn King's first term ends next year. And renewal is not automatic.

When the MPC met last month, King was overruled. He wanted to raise rates to 5.75 per cent. But borrowing costs were held - due to the votes of, among others, the Bank's chief economist Charlie Bean, and fellow internal MPC members Rachel Lomax and Paul Tucker.

With the housing market newly resurgent, it now seems certain the balance of votes will shift when the committee meets again this week - and rates, in turn, will increase.

But Gordon Brown will still be grateful last month's delay stopped the run-up to his coronation being marred by a nasty rate rise. And while, in theory, MPC members - the Governor included - are appointed by the Treasury, it is inconceivable Prime Minister Brown won't continue calling the shots.

Since last week's missive, numerous civil servants and other insiders have told me, sotto voce, how large the Treasury now looms over our "politicised" MPC.

The deeper truth is that Brown detests King - not least because the Governor has a first-class mind and, to his credit, won't be pushed around.

That's why King's tenure may not be renewed. I suspect Brown is lining up Rachel Lomax. And any objections us economists raise - that King, for instance, is superb at his job - will be lost amid hype about the Bank's first female Governor.

Not sure who the author is.

Edited by Ash4781

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Gruff, I believe it will be no change, not because it's not needed, but because of the likes of Lomax, Blanchflower etc being fu***** incompetent!

...they both like to experiment with their own brands of economics.....in lay man terms these economic brands are called Armageddon 1 & 2...........

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If they hold rates now, it will only make the coming financial crisis all the worse.

They cannot stop the Global retraction of investment funds.

They cannot stop Global Interest Rates rising.

They cannot stop the UK Domestic Debt crisis.

They cannot stop the SubPrime effect rippling out.

==========

What a relief that events are not in the hands of the MPC.

They will be *forced* to raise rates, sometime .... they simply have no choice.

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the thing is with these people is that they love to be contrarian. if they just vote sensibly like any other person, they would go un-noticed. they love the limelight, even if it is for the wrong reasons. rather like the football referees who give ridiculous last minute penalty decisions to seek attention.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

how quickly people forget, it was only 6 months ago people were talking about dropping rates. :lol: although even the bulls have gone quiet on this point. ;)

we only need 6% to be on target for this year, I personally think it will finish at 6.25% minimum.

So, we only need 1 rise of .50% remember & there a fair few months left in the year. I think they will rise .50% in August & another .25% in Oct fwiw.

edited:

hopefully I will be proved wrong:

shadow mpc vote 8-1 for a hike

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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how quickly people forget, it was only 6 months ago people were talking about dropping rates. :lol: although even the bulls have gone quiet on this point. ;)

we only need 6% to be on target for this year, I personally think it will finish at 6.25% minimum.

So, we only need 1 rise of .50% remember & there a fair few months left in the year. I think they will rise .50% in August & another .25% in Oct fwiw.

edited:

hopefully I will be proved wrong:

shadow mpc vote 8-1 for a hike

I don't think you'll get it if Lomax gets the chair. I'm serious.

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What with 5 to 4 voting for a rise. If Mervyn goes for a rise and loses the vote two months running his credibility as Governor will be seriously damaged.

Au contraire - his rep will be seriously enhanced. The others' will be damaged. Perception is all and they will be savaged by economists.

Having said that an increase on Thursday is only 50/50 as, still, qtr months are most likely to see changes.

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Having said that an increase on Thursday is only 50/50 as, still, qtr months are most likely to see changes.

The odds are quite obviously not 50/50. They're about 85/15.

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If they do hold, is that likely to have a significant impact in keeping remortgage fix rates down over the (crucial, as far as GB is concerrned) next few months? Or have international credit markets already decided that IRs which accurately reflect the inflationary picture are on the rise, and therefore the mortgage rates on the market will continue creeping up regardless of whether the BoE's IR does or not?

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If they do hold, is that likely to have a significant impact in keeping remortgage fix rates down over the (crucial, as far as GB is concerrned) next few months? Or have international credit markets already decided that IRs which accurately reflect the inflationary picture are on the rise, and therefore the mortgage rates on the market will continue creeping up regardless of whether the BoE's IR does or not?

No , fixed rates are set by the market as far as I'm aware on what are called swap rates , the BoE only controls near term rates. Hence why people on here say the BoE will have their hand forced.

For an indication of direction see here and click on ,swap rates, then ,UK extended rates, and see how far they have risen.

http://www.swaprates.co.uk/

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No , fixed rates are set by the market as far as I'm aware on what are called swap rates , the BoE only controls near term rates. Hence why people on here say the BoE will have their hand forced.

For an indication of direction see here and click on ,swap rates, then ,UK extended rates, and see how far they have risen.

http://www.swaprates.co.uk/

Who's really in charge here? Surely the swap rates are based on what the money markets think the BoE will do with rates? So what's the tail and what's the dog here? Or are they both related?

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Regardless of who's really in charge in the long term, if I understand the situation correctly, if Crash Gordon does coerce the MPC into holding this month (and perhaps hiking in August, when many people will be on holiday and not notice), we're talking about an empty political gesture which will have little effect on the actual cost of mortgages and living.

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Regardless of who's really in charge in the long term, if I understand the situation correctly, if Crash Gordon does coerce the MPC into holding this month (and perhaps hiking in August, when many people will be on holiday and not notice), we're talking about an empty political gesture which will have little effect on the actual cost of mortgages and living.

.......sounds a likely NuLabour spin trick........transparency is not in their vocabulary.......

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