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Guest wrongmove

Is The Crash Underway?

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Guest wrongmove

It is the last day of Q2 2007. I am interested in the balance of opinion on this site as to whether or not are are now in a housing crash.

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Difficult to say when it started, but whatever happens i think the shift in the media stance is the key defining parameter. The media has the power to win or lose elections and the power to inflate or deflate the housing market.

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Difficult to say when it started, but whatever happens i think the shift in the media stance is the key defining parameter. The media has the power to win or lose elections and the power to inflate or deflate the housing market.

I think it's starting, albeit very slowly, in some regions, but that the stats won't reflect this for another few months.

I believe the BTL crash be fully underway by late autumn, or early 2008. The owner-occupied market will follow but the crash there won't be so severe.

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Guest wrongmove
Difficult to say when it started, but whatever happens i think the shift in the media stance is the key defining parameter. The media has the power to win or lose elections and the power to inflate or deflate the housing market.

There is no question that the media has grown more bearish. But bearish speculation in the press is not the same as falling prices.

I voted no. Reasons: every single indices is pointing up, MoM and YoY. This include the LR, Haliwide, Rightmove, Home. They all use different methods, yey they all say up, MoM and YoY.

Transaction levels are historically high, and approvals figures say they will stay high for at least another few months. Lending is still rising.

Could some of the "yes" vote state the evidence that we are in a crash now?

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Guest wrongmove
I think it's starting, albeit very slowly, in some regions, but that the stats won't reflect this for another few months.

I believe the BTL crash be fully underway by late autumn, or early 2008. The owner-occupied market will follow but the crash there won't be so severe.

I agree that a lot could happen by early 2008. But the poll asks "are we in a crash now?"

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Quote: Freetrader January 2006

The key moment will be when the rate of growth of secured lending starts to fall. That's when house prices will come under severe pressure.

That growth in secured lending will fall as IRs increase and the higher the increase in IRs the faster the growth in lending will fall.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I agree that a lot could happen by early 2008. But the poll asks "are we in a crash now?"

CDOs and hedge funds going down on the back of mortgage defaults.

Propertysnake.co.uk showing a lot of drops.

Big increase in listings on EA sites.

Very bearish news in the press.

Steady increase in interest rates.

I think we're in the crash now.

You can argue specifics of percentage drops and the like, of course.

If you consider the acid test to be when the bears buy, I'll be holding out a while longer, until 50% reductions are available.

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Don't forget the "crash" will only be seen from hindsight. Crashes begin slowly at first, almost imperceptibly. The stages:

1. Rate of HPI slows

2. HPI flattens

3. MoM negatives begin to show up in some regions

4. MoM begative spread

5. YoY negative begin to show up in some regions

6. YoY negative spreads.

When did the crash "begin?"

Exactly! ;)

Better question for a poll: Where in the crash are we today?

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest wrongmove
But for the crash to start, doesnt growth have to slow first? So figures will continue to go up, albeit at a slower rate?

Growth fell dramatically in 2005. It almost reached zero, then it bounced right back - now into double figures again.

Of course growth has to drop before the crash starts :blink: but there is little evidence of even falling growth, and falling growth is not a crash.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Growth fell dramatically in 2005. It almost reached zero, then it bounced right back - now into double figures again.

Of course growth has to drop before the crash starts :blink: but there is little evidence of even falling growth, and falling growth is not a crash.

Buy a few properties then

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Guest wrongmove
CDOs and hedge funds going down on the back of mortgage defaults.

Propertysnake.co.uk showing a lot of drops.

Big increase in listings on EA sites.

Very bearish news in the press.

Steady increase in interest rates.

I think we're in the crash now.

You can argue specifics of percentage drops and the like, of course.

If you consider the acid test to be when the bears buy, I'll be holding out a while longer, until 50% reductions are available.

All the above are good omens, I agree, but a crash actually means rapidly falling prices!! You cannot get money off your house by showing the seller some "really bearish news articles" !

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I agree that a lot could happen by early 2008. But the poll asks "are we in a crash now?"

I'm saying it's very early days ... so it is very difficult to discern. In my area, the market has become very fragmented - some types of property are falling in value, others aren't.

e.g. 2-bed terraces on at 'offers over' are selling within a couple of weeks, whereas many ex-BTL flats, newbuilds and 3-bed houses have been on the market for months, had their prices reduced and are still not sold.

I feel that in BTL the market has definitely begun a downward slide, and a significant crash is inevitable.

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Guest Winnie
It is the last day of Q2 2007. I am interested in the balance of opinion on this site as to whether or not are are now in a housing crash.

Another cheap shot at RB, wrongmove, cheap, cheap, cheap....just like houses will be this time next year.

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Guest wrongmove
Better question for a poll: Where in the crash are we today?

Even better question perhaps: "how do HPC readers define a crash"

Lots of bearish speculation in the press and a couple of iffy hedge funds are not the same (to me) as cheaper houses. :unsure:

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Guest wrongmove
Another cheap shot at RB, wrongmove, cheap, cheap, cheap....just like houses will be this time next year.

:P

I never mentioned RB. You have a crush on him?

Q2 has been called by several here (most loudly by RB, but he posts far more than anyone else).

So far, a little over half the voters say we are in a crash. So even on HPC it is not an open and shut case. This implies to me that there is still something to debate here. If you have some interesting point to make, then make it. The PM system is best for love letters, IMHO.

edit: it's swinging to the crashees now, but far from unanimous...

Edited by wrongmove

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
All the above are good omens, I agree, but a crash actually means rapidly falling prices!! You cannot get money off your house by showing the seller some "really bearish news articles" !

Go to propertysnake.co.uk and pick something up.

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Well I think the game is over, the referee has blown the final whistle but due to the excessive crowd noise some of the players didn't hear it and they're still kicking the ball around.

And i'll tell you another thing......my analogies totally suck :lol:

True tho'.

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Guest AuntJess
There is no question that the media has grown more bearish. But bearish speculation in the press is not the same as falling prices.

I voted no. Reasons: every single indices is pointing up, MoM and YoY. This include the LR, Haliwide, Rightmove, Home. They all use different methods, yey they all say up, MoM and YoY.

Transaction levels are historically high, and approvals figures say they will stay high for at least another few months. Lending is still rising.

Could some of the "yes" vote state the evidence that we are in a crash now?

Houses around where I used to live and live now, sticking or dropping in price. EAs suddenly want to know me.....Letters, phone calls, emails. A few months ago I had to wait 3 days to view a house. :o

A vendor who refused my offer 3 months ago, now has got in touch and wonders if I am still interested. If this isn't desperate to sell before the axe falls, I don't know what is. I might just point out that houses in this area stay at the asking price for months and months usually, as they wait for some poor bleeder to cave in.

THIS lady's not for turning. ;)

Edited by AuntJess

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

You are in a real crash when the EA comes to value your home and tells you that your neighbour who sold for £120k last year was lucky, as to sell your house now you will struggle to get £88k. Fact, in 1992 a friend`s daughter and so-in- law found that out when they got their bargain as FTBs from a shocked seller stepping straight into a 3 bed semi in a very desirable area.

Now 15 years into their £80k mortgage at 39 years of age.

Estate Agents in my area are now pricing as Offers In The Region Of ie: £250,000 to £270,000.

Translation

£250,000 over inflated asking price.

Up to £270,000, who knows the mugs may start outbidding each other and I may get a bonus.

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There is no question that the media has grown more bearish. But bearish speculation in the press is not the same as falling prices.

I voted no. Reasons: every single indices is pointing up, MoM and YoY. This include the LR, Haliwide, Rightmove, Home. They all use different methods, yey they all say up, MoM and YoY.

Transaction levels are historically high, and approvals figures say they will stay high for at least another few months. Lending is still rising.

Could some of the "yes" vote state the evidence that we are in a crash now?

1. The Land Registry have reported regional falls.

2. Hometrack report rate of increase has halved indicating rapid deceleration

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle...nuKey=News.Home

The housing market continued to apply the brakes during June Hometrack statistics have shown, with growth slowing to 0.3% from 0.6% in May.

3. Supply of property coming to market rapidly increasing while demand has remained flat (NAEA)

http://www.naea.co.uk/about/latest_news_de...49&PageNo=1

Housing stock surged in May. Nationally, the number of properties per agent leapt 16.1% from 62 in April to 72. This is considerably higher than figures seen at the same time last year, when the average number of properties per agent was 66........Meanwhile, the number of house buyers on estate agents’ books remained level as purchasers continue to be affected by affordability issues..../

4. Mortgage approvals down 4%.

5. Builders continue to warn of slowdowns:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnberk129a.xml

Builder warns on housing slowdown

6. City money is departing from property related investments with Friday's close seeing 2 REITS get hammered:

HAMMERSON REIT (LSE:HMSO.L) Edit
Last Trade: 1,434.00 p
Trade Time: Jun 29
Change: Down 26.00 (1.78%)
LIBERTY INT R.E.I.T (LSE:LII.L) Edit
Last Trade: 1,145.00 p
Trade Time: Jun 29
Change: Down 28.00 (2.39%)

7. Imprudent loans are coming home to roost:

http://icnewcastle.icnetwork.co.uk/0500bus...-name_page.html

Rock suffers
Jun 28 2007
By Graeme King, The Journal
Northern Rock has warned its annual profits will be hit as rising interest rates take their toll on margins from cheap fixed-rate home loans. Shares in the group plummeted by nearly 12% to 830p after Northern Rock said underlying profits for the year would miss analyst expectations.

But the Bulls and Neithers can argue that asking prices are soaring as evidenced by RM, Haliwide & Co. You gotta have a dream, I suppose................ ;)

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Winnie
:P

I never mentioned RB. You have a crush on him?

Q2 has been called by several here (most loudly by RB, but he posts far more than anyone else).

So far, a little over half the voters say we are in a crash. So even on HPC it is not an open and shut case. This implies to me that there is still something to debate here. If you have some interesting point to make, then make it. The PM system is best for love letters, IMHO.

edit: it's swinging to the crashees now, but far from unanimous...

The increasingly frantic VIs always have to resort to personal comments when they are up against the obvious. :rolleyes:

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
The increasingly frantic VIs always have to resort to personal comments when they are up against the obvious. :rolleyes:

Yes, common tactic, emotional ad hominem takedown.

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Guest wrongmove
But the Bulls and Neithers can argue that asking prices are soaring as evidenced by RM, Haliwide & Co. You gotta have a dream, I suppose................ ;)

Home is based on asking prices, but you quote their figure in your list of reasons we are crashing. Even Home have just reported a rise.

LR figures show some drops in some areas, but are overall up.

Mortgage approvals (BoE) are up, not down from last month. Even the 4% drop you cling to (BBA figs) is a figure 13% higher than 2005.

plus a lot of bearish stuff in the press.

You would take on this case "no win, no fee"?

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