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Realistbear

G C 2 News From U S : Mo M Prices Down 11% -35 Year Record

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http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070627/jun2007d...oney.com/RENEWS

BusinessWeek Online

The Housing Mirage

Wednesday June 27, 8:08 am ET

By Maya Roney

Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there -- you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it's lost in the haze.

..../

The May home sales news, combined with homebuilder Lennar's (NYSE:LEN - News) weaker-than-expected earnings announcement on May 26, dashed any remaining hopes of an imminent end to troubles in the housing market. Spirits had been higher in April, when sales of new homes jumped 13%, as builders whittled away at huge inventories with aggressive pricing. The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

11% down in a single month is somewhat worse than I thought we would see this early in the crash. Unless GC2 is going to be an all-up-front crash with years of stagnation to follow. The credit markets are strangling the life out of what is left alive in the market over there. I wonder if there will be credit tightening in the miracle economy? ;)

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Don't worry! I hear that it's "contained". We'll all be sipping champagne in 6 months laughing how we thought that we thought that the largest bubble in the US popping would have any effect on.... anything. :lol:

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A lot of Brit second home owners are wishing they hadn't in Florida:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/jun/26/bz...oney.com/RENEWS

How Low Can Local Sellers Go?
By SHANNON BEHNKEN, The Tampa Tribune
Published: June 26, 2007
TAMPA - Single-family home prices in the Tampa Bay area
dropped 8 percent in May
compared with the same month last year, figures released Monday show.
That's the largest price drop the area has seen since home prices started falling four months ago, and a further sign that the home market has yet to rebound.

Its a pity CO has gone on over to the other side as he used to like suggesting that, despite record repossessions, there were no actual price falls going on in the US. About 6 months to year ago the US market was just like our market is today--patchy falls, dropping mortgage approvals and steadily rising levels of unsold property. Oh yes--and a few VIs admitting its slowing but that it will be a "soft landing."

Edited by Realistbear

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A lot of Brit second home owners are wishing they hadn't in Florida:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/jun/26/bz...oney.com/RENEWS

How Low Can Local Sellers Go?
By SHANNON BEHNKEN, The Tampa Tribune
Published: June 26, 2007
TAMPA - Single-family home prices in the Tampa Bay area
dropped 8 percent in May
compared with the same month last year, figures released Monday show.
That's the largest price drop the area has seen since home prices started falling four months ago, and a further sign that the home market has yet to rebound.

Its a pity CO has gone on over to the other side as he used to like suggesting that, despite record repossessions, there were no actual price falls going on in the US. About 6 months to year ago the US market was just like our market is today--patchy falls, dropping mortgage approvals and steadily rising levels of unsold property. Oh yes--and a few VIs admitting its slowing but that it will be a "soft landing."

well, there doesn't seem much to "rebound" to. No way people will be able to get sub-prime liar loans anymore, after some of the biggest funds tanked for it.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070627/jun2007d...oney.com/RENEWS

BusinessWeek Online

The Housing Mirage

Wednesday June 27, 8:08 am ET

By Maya Roney

Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there -- you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it's lost in the haze.

..../

The May home sales news, combined with homebuilder Lennar's (NYSE:LEN - News) weaker-than-expected earnings announcement on May 26, dashed any remaining hopes of an imminent end to troubles in the housing market. Spirits had been higher in April, when sales of new homes jumped 13%, as builders whittled away at huge inventories with aggressive pricing. The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

11% down in a single month is somewhat worse than I thought we would see this early in the crash. Unless GC2 is going to be an all-up-front crash with years of stagnation to follow. The credit markets are strangling the life out of what is left alive in the market over there. I wonder if there will be credit tightening in the miracle economy? ;)

that would be a great scenario RB.

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Wow!

I wonder if the BBC will report it...

The BBC will have airlifted a thousand mortgage lenders for the new musical named:

“Buy houses scumbags”

I hear that it will be very rousing and there will be tap, and jazz dancing and everything….

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Thats a lot in a month...

but note this is 'new home prices', not for existing homes.

I think that something like this will happen here, though the supply/demand dynamics are slightly less bubblicious than in the US. One thing we don't have here is construction oversupply, except in limited areas of the market.

We may well get a BTL crash, but that doesn't necessarily mean you'll ever see an 11% MoM fall in your market of choice, though you might get lucky :-)

I think this might be seen in BTL oversupply areas like Leeds and Nottingham. The question I have, is when will the REITS start to step in. Not for a bit. Then the government will have its privatised supply of affordable rental property... (did anyone say council housing, this is the PFI version, paid for by a hundred thousand shoe-shine boys turned late entrant BTL landlord).

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Guest d23
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070627/jun2007d...oney.com/RENEWS

BusinessWeek Online

The Housing Mirage

Wednesday June 27, 8:08 am ET

By Maya Roney

Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there -- you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it's lost in the haze.

..../

The May home sales news, combined with homebuilder Lennar's (NYSE:LEN - News) weaker-than-expected earnings announcement on May 26, dashed any remaining hopes of an imminent end to troubles in the housing market. Spirits had been higher in April, when sales of new homes jumped 13%, as builders whittled away at huge inventories with aggressive pricing. The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

11% down in a single month is somewhat worse than I thought we would see this early in the crash. Unless GC2 is going to be an all-up-front crash with years of stagnation to follow. The credit markets are strangling the life out of what is left alive in the market over there. I wonder if there will be credit tightening in the miracle economy? ;)

Thats new home sales presumably RB

They account for 15% of the US housing market, the other 85% is prexisting homes which fell last month by 2.1% YoY

I 100% agree the situation is f*cked in the US and will get worse (as it will over here) but a casual glance at your post might have resulted in a slightly skewed reading of the situation in the states

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Thats new home sales presumably RB

They account for 15% of the US housing market, the other 85% is prexisting homes which fell last month by 2.1% YoY

I 100% agree the situation is f*cked in the US and will get worse (as it will over here) but a casual glance at your post might have resulted in a slightly skewed reading of the situation in the states

Trust you to try to get something bullish out of the worst ever housing report we have seen from the US :lol::lol::lol:

A casual look at Businessweek would tell any but the most bullish bulls that the market is going down hard and its the worst it has been in 37 years!

2.1%??????????????? Yeah right. Maybe in the non-bubble zones but the bubbles are crashing hard.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/70...oney.com/RENEWS

Fourteen of twenty metropolitan areas sampled revealed dropping prices in the last year. That list is lead by Detroit, which is 9.3 percent lower, San Diego, lower by 6.7 percent, and Washington, down by 5.7 percent.
Edited by Realistbear

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Don't worry because the British Housing market is the new paradigm.

It will never crash and is completely immune to events elsewhere in the world economy.

British workers will never have any trouble meeting their mortgage payments no matter how much they borrow or how miserable their pay rises. Nor will they ever have any trouble with rising interest payments or unemployment. In fact everything will be for the best in the best of all possible countries. Just ask Dr Pangloss.

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Guest d23
Trust you to try to get something bullish out of the worst ever housing report we have seen from the US :lol::lol::lol:

A casual look at Businessweek would tell any but the most bullish bulls that the market is going down hard and its the worst it has been in 37 years!

2.1%??????????????? Yeah right. Maybe in the non-bubble zones but the bubbles are crashing hard.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/70...oney.com/RENEWS

Fourteen of twenty metropolitan areas sampled revealed dropping prices in the last year. That list is lead by Detroit, which is 9.3 percent lower, San Diego, lower by 6.7 percent, and Washington, down by 5.7 percent.

Bullish? :blink:

I'm not being bullish RB, unless of course "I 100% agree the situation is f*cked in the US and will get worse " is in any way 'bullish.

my point was that to grab that 11% MoM figure and make it appear that it was representative of the US housing market as a whole was disengenous; the figures you quote above for Detroit, San Diego etc etc are YoY and are smaller drops than the MoM figure you quoted in your title

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Thats new home sales presumably RB

They account for 15% of the US housing market, the other 85% is prexisting homes which fell last month by 2.1% YoY

I 100% agree the situation is f*cked in the US and will get worse (as it will over here) but a casual glance at your post might have resulted in a slightly skewed reading of the situation in the states

Well cant we add the 11% to the 2.1% then divide it by 85% then .......um .....add the other 15% then times that by ....err...something....or other....then.....um............

Oh f*ck it!!! lets just point and laugh at the Americans :lol:

Edited by Nelly

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Bullish? :blink:

I'm not being bullish RB, unless of course "I 100% agree the situation is f*cked in the US and will get worse " is in any way 'bullish.

my point was that to grab that 11% MoM figure and make it appear that it was representative of the US housing market as a whole was disengenous; the figures you quote above for Detroit, San Diego etc etc are YoY and are smaller drops than the MoM figure you quoted in your title

But the Businessweek article does state that the drop was 11% and we must assume its accurate. Its a hellish drop and even though it may be new houses it is a sign that GC2 is going to be much bigger than GC1. In fact, I am beginning to wonder if GC1 is worthy of such a name as it may bear no resemblance to our current crash which is laying waste to prices in a huge way very early in the down cycle.

Businessweek is a respected magazine and I doubt you will get much mileage out of attacking their "disengenuity" in publishing the statistic which was not, BTW, mine but theirs.

Its one for the bears I am afraid.

Here it is again:

The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

It doesn't get much more bearish than that. Can't see how it can be spun to sound bullish or somehow less devastating to the bull/neither cause????

Edited by Realistbear

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Never sure about the median figure

10 10 10 10 1 1 1 the median is 10

10 10 10 1 1 1 1 The median is 1

A considerable drop in median average.

Just to add I am a bear, but just pointing out potential flaws in the data.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
But the Businessweek article does state that the drop was 11% and we must assume its accurate. Its a hellish drop and even though it may be new houses it is a sign that GC2 is going to be much bigger than GC1. In fact, I am beginning to wonder if GC1 is worthy of such a name as it may bear no resemblance to our current crash which is laying waste to prices in a huge way very early in the down cycle.

Businessweek is a respected magazine and I doubt you will get much mileage out of attacking their "disengenuity" in publishing the statistic which was not, BTW, mine but theirs.

Its one for the bears I am afraid.

Bring the whole ******ing lot down.

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...773139549147763

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Guest d23

[

But the Businessweek article does state that the drop was 11% and we must assume its accurate. Its a hellish drop and even though it may be new houses it is a sign that GC2 is going to be much bigger than GC1. In fact, I am beginning to wonder if GC1 is worthy of such a name as it may bear no resemblance to our current crash which is laying waste to prices in a huge way very early in the down cycle.

Businessweek is a respected magazine and I doubt you will get much mileage out of attacking their "disengenuity" in publishing the statistic which was not, BTW, mine but theirs.

Its one for the bears I am afraid.

Here it is again:

The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

It doesn't get much more bearish than that. Can't see how it can be spun to sound bullish or somehow less devastating to the bull/neither cause????

stop waffling on about your playground bull / bear fight to the death RB; As for my 'cause' I don't have a religous zealot mindset so feel free to stop with the hyperbole.

I haven't (and indeed couldn't even if I wanted to) disputed the fact that the american market is buggered and that this is indeed very bearish news. My point (as well you know) was that to state baldly in your title that the US is down 11% MoM when in actuality you're only talking about 15% of the market is disengenous. Businessweek wouldn't do that RB.

If a bull had posted a thread headlined UK prices up 12% based on just detached houses but overall houseprices were only up by 2% you'd have something to say about that.

Edited by d23

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Guest Winnie
[

stop waffling on about your playground bull / bear fight to the death RB; As for my 'cause' I don't have a religous zealot mindset so feel free to stop with the hyperbole.

I haven't (and indeed couldn't even if I wanted to) disputed the fact that the american market is buggered and that this is indeed very bearish news. My point (as well you know) was that to state baldly in your title that the US is down 11% MoM when in actuality you're only talking about 15% of the market is disengenous. Businessweek wouldn't do that RB.

If a bull had posted a thread headlined UK prices up 12% based on just detached houses but overall houseprices were only up by 2% you'd have something to say about that.

Now I think I am getting it. MD of big VI Estate Agent says to cocky chopsy idiot in middle management - "I am worried about this housepricecrash.co.uk website. We need to sabotage its growing influence. You go on there and just gratuitously attack anything their most venerable poster Realist Bear says, every time he says it, like a misguided rabid little pack dog. Call yourself something bland like "d23"....

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Well cant we add the 11% to the 2.1% then divide it by 85% then .......um .....add the other 15% then times that by ....err...something....or other....then.....um............

Oh f*ck it!!! lets just point and laugh at the Americans :lol:

Zes, and then think about how much hedge funds depend on the value of US mortgages for their lending. A huge pile of cards relying upon nothing. The emperor's new clothes are soon to be revealed.

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...

The truth is that U.S. home sales have fallen to the lowest point in four years, median prices have dropped for ten consecutive months, and the often overly-optimistic NAR is predicting the worst annual price decline in four decades of recordkeeping.

...

Existing Home Sales

According to the latest numbers released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing homes are selling at the slowest pace seen in four years. During the month of May, sales of previously owned homes fell 10.3 percent compared to the same time last year. The NAR is now forecasting sales declines throughout 2007.

New Home Sales

Economists consider new home sales rather than existing home sales to be a more accurate barometer of how the housing market is faring. If this is the case, the market is very bad indeed. According to the Commerce Department, new home sales were down 15.8 percent in May in a year over year comparison. Builders are expecting more losses throughout 2007 and into 2008.

http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Fall...ime_to_Buy.html

Existing home sales averaged 6.51 million last year, lower than the 7.07 million average for 2005. Sales last month were down 10.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

New Homes

New home sales, which economists consider a more timely barometer of the market, are set to be released later this week and may show a decline for May after jumping in April by the most in 14 years, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Edited by alabala

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Don't worry because the British Housing market is the new paradigm.

It will never crash and is completely immune to events elsewhere in the world economy.

Future of the British housing market, see below. :lol::lol:

houses2.JPG

post-7800-1183070222_thumb.jpg

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Never sure about the median figure

10 10 10 10 1 1 1 the median is 10

10 10 10 1 1 1 1 The median is 1

A considerable drop in median average.

Just to add I am a bear, but just pointing out potential flaws in the data.

The data should be fairly continuous. I agree it would be better to have a mean and a St.Dev. as well.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070627/jun2007d...oney.com/RENEWS

BusinessWeek Online

The Housing Mirage

Wednesday June 27, 8:08 am ET

By Maya Roney

Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there -- you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it's lost in the haze.

..../

The May home sales news, combined with homebuilder Lennar's (NYSE:LEN - News) weaker-than-expected earnings announcement on May 26, dashed any remaining hopes of an imminent end to troubles in the housing market. Spirits had been higher in April, when sales of new homes jumped 13%, as builders whittled away at huge inventories with aggressive pricing. The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

11% down in a single month is somewhat worse than I thought we would see this early in the crash. Unless GC2 is going to be an all-up-front crash with years of stagnation to follow. The credit markets are strangling the life out of what is left alive in the market over there. I wonder if there will be credit tightening in the miracle economy? ;)

New build only - which makes up inevitably only a very small portion of total home sales.

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But the Businessweek article does state that the drop was 11% and we must assume its accurate. Its a hellish drop and even though it may be new houses it is a sign that GC2 is going to be much bigger than GC1. In fact, I am beginning to wonder if GC1 is worthy of such a name as it may bear no resemblance to our current crash which is laying waste to prices in a huge way very early in the down cycle.

Businessweek is a respected magazine and I doubt you will get much mileage out of attacking their "disengenuity" in publishing the statistic which was not, BTW, mine but theirs.

Its one for the bears I am afraid.

Here it is again:

The median price of a new home dropped 11% in April from the previous month, to $229,100, the biggest decline since 1970.

It doesn't get much more bearish than that. Can't see how it can be spun to sound bullish or somehow less devastating to the bull/neither cause????

Hows Warwickshire getting on RB? Still rising?

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Now I think I am getting it. MD of big VI Estate Agent says to cocky chopsy idiot in middle management - "I am worried about this housepricecrash.co.uk website. We need to sabotage its growing influence. You go on there and just gratuitously attack anything their most venerable poster Realist Bear says, every time he says it, like a misguided rabid little pack dog. Call yourself something bland like "d23"....

It makes me chuckle a little that people on this website think it can somehow "influence" the market and that VIs are "scared" of it and send "spys" like d23 :rolleyes: . What ever happens will happen but it will have nothing to do with HPC.co.uk

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