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Willy Weasel

Lr Data Released Tomorrow

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The Land Registry data is due out tomorrow. Last month saw 4 of the 10 areas go MoM negative. IMHO the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East will join the Northern regions and the South West to show falling prices over most of the country. If that happens then even the Beeb will be hard pressed to spin it as an HPI story.

Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

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The Land Registry data is due out tomorrow. Last month saw 4 of the 10 areas go MoM negative. IMHO the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East will join the Northern regions and the South West to show falling prices over most of the country. If that happens then even the Beeb will be hard pressed to spin it as an HPI story.

Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

No. If only.

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The Land Registry data is due out tomorrow. Last month saw 4 of the 10 areas go MoM negative. IMHO the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East will join the Northern regions and the South West to show falling prices over most of the country. If that happens then even the Beeb will be hard pressed to spin it as an HPI story.

Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

I predict Wales will also go negative along with E&W Mids and North.

SE possibly, London probably not this month. Though both may fall to 0.2 or less which would be real drops.

Given past variability one or other of the -ve regions may jump back positive, North West / South West being the most likely candidates.

I think there is a very good chance that the headline MoM figure may drop to 0.2 or less, which would be a real fall, and an outside chance that it could drop to zero or go negative.

My main guess is seven regions negative.

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Guest Winnie

Does this LR data show YOY HPI in % growth terms - ie say Wales' prices grew by 6% last May and 5.5% this may, therfore a 0.5% drop, or is it about absolute prices eg the average Welsh house cost 223k in May 06 and is now £221k therfore an actual price drop of 0.5%?

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Guest grumpy-old-man
The Land Registry data is due out tomorrow. Last month saw 4 of the 10 areas go MoM negative. IMHO the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East will join the Northern regions and the South West to show falling prices over most of the country. If that happens then even the Beeb will be hard pressed to spin it as an HPI story.

Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

really looking forwrad to this one tuffers (even though I don't 100% trust the data <_< )

I think 8 out of 10 areas negative in this report.

keep us all posted mate. :)

ps - you timed it perfectly for str'ing., right at the peak imo. ;)

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really looking forwrad to this one tuffers (even though I don't 100% trust the data <_< )

I think 8 out of 10 areas negative in this report.

keep us all posted mate. :)

ps - you timed it perfectly for str'ing., right at the peak imo. ;)

I agree, 8 out of 10.... 7 minimum, or I'll eat my own turds.

Edited by bugged bunny

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Guest grumpy-old-man
I agree, 8 out of 10.... 7 minimum, or I'll eat my own turds.

no need to go that far BB. :o:o

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really looking forwrad to this one tuffers (even though I don't 100% trust the data <_< )

I think 8 out of 10 areas negative in this report.

keep us all posted mate. :)

ps - you timed it perfectly for str'ing., right at the peak imo. ;)

A lot of my property developer clients think so too :)

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I predict Wales will also go negative along with E&W Mids and North.

SE possibly, London probably not this month. Though both may fall to 0.2 or less which would be real drops.

Given past variability one or other of the -ve regions may jump back positive, North West / South West being the most likely candidates.

I think there is a very good chance that the headline MoM figure may drop to 0.2 or less, which would be a real fall, and an outside chance that it could drop to zero or go negative.

My main guess is seven regions negative.

Well, I got that badly wrong:

Yorkshire & The Humber 1.9

Wales 1.8

West Midlands 1.7

East Midlands 1.5

East 1.3

London 1.0

South West 0.4

South East 0.0

North West -0.4

North East -0.7

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ts/hpir0607.pdf

Monthly change 0.7% nationwide.

But what the f is going on?

Recovery in Yorkshire and the Midlands, zero growth in the South East.

Answers on a postcard please.

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Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

In 18-24 months perhaps.

Any shorter timescale is probably unrealistic.

1.7 for the west mids reflects my own experienec. The BBC site was reporting Shrewsbury 12% up yoy last week and everything except flats is well up on last year.

Which amuses me as RB has been saying for the past two years the west mids has been crashing. :rolleyes:

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The Land Registry data is due out tomorrow. Last month saw 4 of the 10 areas go MoM negative. IMHO the East Midlands, West Midlands and the East will join the Northern regions and the South West to show falling prices over most of the country. If that happens then even the Beeb will be hard pressed to spin it as an HPI story.

Anyone think we'll have a clean sweep with all 10 regions showing MoM negative?

2 out of 9.

Thats a 50% reduction in regions suffering negative HPI MOM.

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Any guesses Newspaper headlines on Friday? House prices continue rise / Get on the ladder before its to late / IR rises but still prices continue to rise / Whats gonna stop the property boom

Many are gonna fall for it, another bunch will take the plunge

According to these figures anyone who has STR in the past couple of years will currently be worse off, after paying all fees to sell up, rent in the interim and then pay the fees to buy again.

I don't think we will see negative figures across the board for at least 2 years.

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Bear turns Bull?

I think he is just being realistic.

The problem with most people on this board is that they begin to believe all the bear news/hype. They dont take a step back and look at the graphs/charts/figures that are posted on the front page of this very site. All of it confirms that HPI is rampant and we are set for another year of YoY 10%+ HPI.

At the start of the year I stated that I expect to see nationwide YoY figures of 12% in Jan 2008. I still stand by that.

Next year I expect to see a lot of falls in the home counties, with London pushing up the figures, to give postive HPI for full year, nationwide.

2009 is when, possibly something might happen in London and when it does, then we might see YoY negative data across the board. 2009 is too far ahead to make a sensible prediction though.

London, I feel, is the key. It is attracting far too many foreign investors, leading to homegrown Londoners to buy properties outside London, thus affecting prices in those areas. As it stands, there is still easy money to be made in property providing you pick the right property (a small, new-build flat in a poor location will cause you problems).

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Guest grumpy-old-man
really looking forwrad to this one tuffers (even though I don't 100% trust the data <_< )

I think 8 out of 10 areas negative in this report.

keep us all posted mate. :)

ps - you timed it perfectly for str'ing., right at the peak imo. ;)

everyone, just trust me on this one.

anomalies in the data. :ph34r:

use your eyes & common sense.

I must admit that this will give the bulls/neithers a good run for a few weeks now though. :D

Bears sit tight & have some trust in what the members are telling you, don't put 100% blind faith in any stats imo.

edited to add - I was wrong with my prediction of 8 out of 10 areas negative, but when the data has been analysed I'm sure there will be a reason for this, I wait with baited bear breath.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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