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camem'

Called The Top And Put A Bottle Of Whisky On It

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So my friend was telling me how he had secured a great deal (buy to let) on a Manchester 2 bed new build apartment for 140,000, when the 'market price' was 165,000. I tried to explain that he had paid 140,000 so the market price, by definition, was exactly that, but he wouldn't let go of his BMV spiel and said I should go to the property development seminars to see for myself. Another friend chipped in and said wasn't it unbelievable that he'd made instant profit on his offer too (I could only agree...)

Anyways, I declined the offer for the seminar and, at the risk of adding salt to the wound, instead bet him a nice bottle of whisky that in 2 years time (June 2009) if he values his 2 bed Manchester new build apartment, it will be less than 140,000 (nominal!). Cue much hilarity from our mates who all think property only goes up (except, interestingly, for the bloke who bought in London and is currently trying to work out whether to go interest only or put more debt on his credit card)

I don't know much about the Manchester market except the odd bit I've read here - what does the collective board think ?

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Will depend on what area - some areas will always remain desirable, others will forever be sh*tholes. I'd say you've got about a 50-50 chance at the moment but gave you the benefit of the doubt in the vote.

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Guest d23
So my friend was telling me how he had secured a great deal (buy to let) on a Manchester 2 bed new build apartment for 140,000, when the 'market price' was 165,000. I tried to explain that he had paid 140,000 so the market price, by definition, was exactly that, but he wouldn't let go of his BMV spiel and said I should go to the property development seminars to see for myself. Another friend chipped in and said wasn't it unbelievable that he'd made instant profit on his offer too (I could only agree...)

Anyways, I declined the offer for the seminar and, at the risk of adding salt to the wound, instead bet him a nice bottle of whisky that in 2 years time (June 2009) if he values his 2 bed Manchester new build apartment, it will be less than 140,000 (nominal!). Cue much hilarity from our mates who all think property only goes up (except, interestingly, for the bloke who bought in London and is currently trying to work out whether to go interest only or put more debt on his credit card)

I don't know much about the Manchester market except the odd bit I've read here - what does the collective board think ?

i reckon you stand a pretty good chance of getting a bottle of nice whisky; not sure he'll be your friend for much longer when you call him to collect tho

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I voted yes. By 2009, I expect most places to have seen drops (not sure about huge drops, but I think we will see drops). In your case, a 15% drop is quite feasible.

Now, if he had bought in London, then I think camem' would be buying the whisky.

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it looks like my wager will be a successful one (but then I did ask housepricecrash.co.uk, maybe I should try singingpig.co.uk for balance)

own up, who voted no ?

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it looks like my wager will be a successful one (but then I did ask housepricecrash.co.uk, maybe I should try singingpig.co.uk for balance)

own up, who voted no ?

Perhaps it was your friend who's about to buy the flat?

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bet him a nice bottle of whisky that in 2 years time (June 2009) if he values his 2 bed Manchester new build apartment, it will be less than 140,000 (nominal!).

I think you will win but, it's a hell of a long time to wait for a drink.

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manchester is absolutely rammed full of flats city centre and the surrounding areas, and they still building them, they seem dont really seem to be selling or let out some are of course but there seems to be a rack of forsale/to let boards everywhere!

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I think you should both put the money up and buy the bottle of whisky now and get a friend to hold it for the winner, I don't think he's going to win the bet and I don't believe that he is going to in a position to be able to afford to buy you a bottle in two years time.

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it looks like my wager will be a successful one (but then I did ask housepricecrash.co.uk, maybe I should try singingpig.co.uk for balance)

Just a thought...

Those on this forum, by and large, have got the HPI predictions totally wrong over the last few years. Some claim to be educated in reading the economy but have totally lost out on substantial profits they couldve made had they predicted the HPI that was to come. They couldve made pots of money (like many millions of people who invested in property over the last few years, but didnt, because their judgement was wrong).

In fact, they couldnt have made worse predictions, even if they had tried. Theyve been wrong virtually 100% of the time. [sorry, guys, but it has to be said].

Given the above, I wouldnt be so sure of winning the bet, now that an overwhelming majority of people on this board have voted in your favour.

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it looks like my wager will be a successful one (but then I did ask housepricecrash.co.uk, maybe I should try singingpig.co.uk for balance)

You won't get your whiskey because he will not get it professionally revalued if the market tanks. I know a couple who have heavily invested in Spanish property and they reckon they've made a packet. My guess is that they will not sell unless they have to, cling to the valuation given to them at the peak and put their heads in the sand about the real achievable value as the market tanks (as it seems to be doing already in Spain).

Unless your mate is forced to sell, the flat will always be 'worth' more than he paid. Denial is a powerful emotion.

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Just a thought...

Those on this forum, by and large, have got the HPI predictions totally wrong over the last few years. Some claim to be educated in reading the economy but have totally lost out on substantial profits they couldve made had they predicted the HPI that was to come. They couldve made pots of money (like many millions of people who invested in property over the last few years, but didnt, because their judgement was wrong).

In fact, they couldnt have made worse predictions, even if they had tried. Theyve been wrong virtually 100% of the time. [sorry, guys, but it has to be said].

Given the above, I wouldnt be so sure of winning the bet, now that an overwhelming majority of people on this board have voted in your favour.

They have been spectacularly right on IRs though. A year ago, anyone who said IRs were going higher than 5% or 5.25% at the most was derided as a crackpot.

So far the only people who have been proved wrong have been those who predicted a levelling off in prices.

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So my friend was telling me how he had secured a great deal (buy to let) on a Manchester 2 bed new build apartment for 140,000, when the 'market price' was 165,000. I tried to explain that he had paid 140,000 so the market price, by definition, was exactly that, but he wouldn't let go of his BMV spiel and said I should go to the property development seminars to see for myself. Another friend chipped in and said wasn't it unbelievable that he'd made instant profit on his offer too (I could only agree...)

Anyways, I declined the offer for the seminar and, at the risk of adding salt to the wound, instead bet him a nice bottle of whisky that in 2 years time (June 2009) if he values his 2 bed Manchester new build apartment, it will be less than 140,000 (nominal!). Cue much hilarity from our mates who all think property only goes up (except, interestingly, for the bloke who bought in London and is currently trying to work out whether to go interest only or put more debt on his credit card)

I don't know much about the Manchester market except the odd bit I've read here - what does the collective board think ?

I know the market very well. Saturated. Even hopeful forecasts from cbre predict growth to lag inflation. Lots of supply in the pipeline too. Dont drink it all in one go. (p.s whcih development has he bought in?)

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but he wouldn't let go of his BMV spiel and said I should go to the property development seminars to see for myself.

This just proves how desperate the developers have got to arrange these seminars. (and how crazy people have got)

Was it AMRO or some such name that had seminars, that people used to come out of thinking they were going to become multi-billionaires within six months for an outlay of a £fewhundred ?.

These seminars are just to brain-wash people, maybe this could become another mis-selling scandal

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