Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Fancypants

Sterling Testing New Highs

Recommended Posts

It doesn't matter whether there is or not. Market forces have made their own decision, and aren't really interested in what the BoE has to say on the matter any more. As with its Zimbabwean counterpart, everyone is now starting to wake up to the extent to which, in reality, IR decisions are politically determined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It doesn't matter whether there is or not. Market forces have made their own decision, and aren't really interested in what the BoE has to say on the matter any more. As with its Zimbabwean counterpart, everyone is now starting to wake up to the extent to which, in reality, IR decisions are politically determined.

Independent Bank of England - when 5 of the members of MPC are appointed by the Chancellor and one isn't even British ! Did they all sign a secret paper to disagree with half of all proposed rate increases?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Independent Bank of England - when 5 of the members of MPC are appointed by the Chancellor and one isn't even British ! Did they all sign a secret paper to disagree with half of all proposed rate increases?

Two of Brown's appointments (Sentence and Besley) have been the most hawkish members of the MPC and were part of the minority of four. I keep making this point, but it is consistently ignored by the tin hat brigade. I'll be surprised if anyone even bothers to reply to this post.

AFAIK Blanchflower is English. He just lives in America. Which is just as bad IMO.

Edited by thedebtisreal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
Independent Bank of England - when 5 of the members of MPC are appointed by the Chancellor and one isn't even British ! Did they all sign a secret paper to disagree with half of all proposed rate increases?

Independant my ar$e eh. ;)

there are those who post on this very site, that nievely believe that they are independant. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are exceptions to every rule, but there have now been two occasions (2005 and now) in which the MPC wussed out of an IR decision that would have caused significant short-term consumer (and therefore voter) pain, but which it's pretty clear were necessary in the long-term. Furthermore, the MPC voting system makes members especially vulnerable to political pressure. If the system was that members voted in secret and their votes made public, say, a year later, then there would simply be no motivation for people like Lomax to vote for her prospects of getting Merv's job rather than for what the economy needs. I'm not saying that she has, but that the system enables her to do so more accurately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
Two of Brown's appointments (Sentence and Besley) have been the most hawkish members of the MPC and were part of the minority of four. I keep making this point, but it is consistently ignored by the tin hat brigade. I'll be surprised if anyone even bothers to reply to this post.

AFAIK Blanchflower is English. He just lives in America. Which is just as bad IMO.

ok, fair comment. I was aware of that as I think you have posted this before.

You will have to fogive our suspicious nature's I suppose, but when this is all over & you see what "comes out" you will look back & probably have a different view of it all. Not specifically this discussion about whether the BoE are independant or not, but the whole area of housing, the economy etc.

A lot of sh1t is about to hit the fan & a lot of lies WILL be exposed. mark my words. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not particularly disagreing, but it may be more of a case of dollar weakness/nervousness ahead of the Fed rate decision on Thursday, sterling isn't really getting any stronger (today) against the Euro or Yen, Dollar is jsut getting weaker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
Two of Brown's appointments (Sentence and Besley) have been the most hawkish members of the MPC and were part of the minority of four. I keep making this point, but it is consistently ignored by the tin hat brigade. I'll be surprised if anyone even bothers to reply to this post.

AFAIK Blanchflower is English. He just lives in America. Which is just as bad IMO.

ps - does anyone who doesn't believe how something works a crackpot then ? ;)

if I would have told you that the BoE deliberately fuelled hpi & also to avert a recession (only to create a much worse one now), would I have been classed as "tin hat brigade" ? only to be told now "you were right". h'mmm

edited - dodgy spelling...again :rolleyes:

Edited by grumpy-old-man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lot of sh1t is about to hit the fan & a lot of lies WILL be exposed. mark my words. :ph34r:

Agreed. But I think you'll find GB is not some all powerful mastermind of the housing market some people on here like to think he is. The housing boom was global. The causes were global. The reckoning will be global. Most governements, banks and investors are just pawns trying to understand this new complex, globalised world we live in.

And when the recriminations, repossessions and recessions are all over, the overwhelming majority of people will still not understand the reasons why it happened and the reasons why it failed and commit the same errors all over again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ps - does anyone who doesn't believe how something works a crackpot then ? ;)

if I would have told you that the BoE deliberatly fuelled hpi & also to avert a recession (only to create a much worse one now), would I have been classes as "tin hat brigade" ? only to be told now "you were right". h'mmm

No. I did not say that. The bank deliberately lowering rates to avert a recession is hardly a crazy, wacko, none mainstream theory. Most economists knew this even before Eddie George's confession. What other reason was there for lowering rates once the US showed negative GDP for one quarter?

The more important question is: If lowering rates and boosting house prices is such a great, catch-all solution to slowing economic growth, why aren't the US doing it now?

Why did interest rates fall to record levels? Not just in the US, but all over the world?

Edited by thedebtisreal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
No. I did not say that. The bank deliberately lowering rates to avert a recession is hardly a crazy, wacko, none mainstream theory. Most economists knew this even before Eddie George's confession. What other reason was there for lowering rates once the US showed negative GDP for one quarter?

The more important question is: If lowering rates and boosting house prices is such a great, catch-all solution to slowing economic growth, why aren't the US doing it now?

Why did interest rates fall to record levels? Not just in the US, but all over the world?

I assume because the US can't drop rates to further fuel hpi as there has to be a limit to stupidity, & that has been reached.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agreed. But I think you'll find GB is not some all powerful mastermind of the housing market some people on here like to think he is. The housing boom was global. The causes were global. The reckoning will be global. Most governements, banks and investors are just pawns trying to understand this new complex, globalised world we live in.

And when the recriminations, repossessions and recessions are all over, the overwhelming majority of people will still not understand the reasons why it happened and the reasons why it failed and commit the same errors all over again.

Quite. It may suit some onlookers of limited imagination or narrow agendas to scapegoat or find a bogeyman, but the truth is that Brown (for example) is floundering just as witlessly in the bubble as most of the punters in this country are. Where figures like him do deserve blame and ridicule is for their keenness to grab credit for all the good things that seem to be going on, and their desire to appear to be in control of what goes on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
No. I did not say that. The bank deliberately lowering rates to avert a recession is hardly a crazy, wacko, none mainstream theory. Most economists knew this even before Eddie George's confession. What other reason was there for lowering rates once the US showed negative GDP for one quarter?

The more important question is: If lowering rates and boosting house prices is such a great, catch-all solution to slowing economic growth, why aren't the US doing it now?

Why did interest rates fall to record levels? Not just in the US, but all over the world?

do you know that the vast majority of senior management appointments in companies are a done deal on the golf course, so to speak....so magnify that up a few levels & what do you end up with. Little whispers in peoples ears stating things like "it would be better if we could hold next months's IR's wouldn't it"

When there is money & power to be had, that's just how the vast majority of the world works imo. <_<

edited to add - ok, I get your point regarding the global effect & I don't personally think GB is some sort of elite mastermind.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is particularly relevant news for me. I'm a contractor living in the UK and I'm just about to accept a new contract where the client is insisting on paying me the equivalent of my UK rate in US dollars. For clarity, assume my rate is £100 per day - they would like to pay me $200. So from this point forward, I will always be paid $200 per day.

Now I'm wondering how this will bode for the future. Can anyone help me work out the implications as I'm pretty clueless. :unsure:

For context, my outlook for the UK economy is gloomy and I think there will be a big housing crash and maybe a recession. Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There goes the trade balance...........................................and along with it jobs in companies that export. Merv has no alternative than to keep raising the rates despite the faltering housing market and the desperate situation with BTL and falling yields. Ben has said he will sacrifice house prices in the name of taming inflation and I suspect such is the policy here. The problem is with Gordon as a HPC will end his career early. :( **

_______________

** :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I assume because the US can't drop rates to further fuel hpi as there has to be a limit to stupidity, & that has been reached.

So how is the stupidity limit decided then? Where was this stupidity limit when rates were lowered to 1%?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The more important question is: If lowering rates and boosting house prices is such a great, catch-all solution to slowing economic growth, why aren't the US doing it now?

Because they could then, and they cant now due to other factors.

If they did the same thing now the US economy would go into tailspin and a recession, that would make the 30s look like a childrens teaparty, would ensue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is particularly relevant news for me. I'm a contractor living in the UK and I'm just about to accept a new contract where the client is insisting on paying me the equivalent of my UK rate in US dollars. For clarity, assume my rate is £100 per day - they would like to pay me $200. So from this point forward, I will always be paid $200 per day.

Now I'm wondering how this will bode for the future. Can anyone help me work out the implications as I'm pretty clueless. :unsure:

For context, my outlook for the UK economy is gloomy and I think there will be a big housing crash and maybe a recession. Thoughts?

Dollar falls. Bad for you.

Pounds falls. Good for you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There goes the trade balance...........................................and along with it jobs in companies that export. Merv has no alternative than to keep raising the rates despite the faltering housing market and the desperate situation with BTL and falling yields. Ben has said he will sacrifice house prices in the name of taming inflation and I suspect such is the policy here. The problem is with Gordon as a HPC will end his career early. :( **

_______________

** :D

May be all those boomers who have been minting it on the MPCs printing press will decide that Brown is the best bet to get the press running again if ,as is likely,some of those gains have started to erode by the time we have a general election.After all the Tories got away with it in 1992,but not in 1997 after a further five years of falling house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
So how is the stupidity limit decided then? Where was this stupidity limit when rates were lowered to 1%?

I honestly don't know. Every assett must have a limit for that period in time, whether it is driven by sentiment or fundamentals.

I personally think it comes down to how long can they get away with inflating a bubble without getting too much sh1t ??

Your point I presume is that global external market forces drove these bubbles & not an elite globalist conspiracy ?

Edited by grumpy-old-man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I honestly don't know. Every assett must have a limit for that period in time, whether it is driven by sentiment or fundamentals.

I persoanlly think it comes down to how long can they get away with inflating a bubble without getting too much sh1t ??

Your point I presume is that global external market forces drove these bubbles & not an elite globalist conspiracy ?

Right.

I am a big fan of the addage: 'Given the choice of conspiracy and **** up, I go with the latter.'

Also, worth saying that the last thing the super rich want us to do is become serfs rather than consumers.

Think of the UK super rich list and think of how much they'd lose if the consumer dies on its backside and we're all living mouth to mouth.

Lakshmi Matal: Steel

Roman Abramovich: Oil

Duke of Westminster: Land

Richard Branson: Cheap flights, mobile phones, record shops, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is particularly relevant news for me. I'm a contractor living in the UK and I'm just about to accept a new contract where the client is insisting on paying me the equivalent of my UK rate in US dollars. For clarity, assume my rate is £100 per day - they would like to pay me $200. So from this point forward, I will always be paid $200 per day.

It sounds like they have stockpiles of dollars and are passing on the risk of fluctuating exchange rates on to you. If sterling keeps on rising, you will be a loser (that $200 will be worth less in £), but if it falls, you will be a winner. They sound like a bunch of cheap ba$tards if they have to pass on currency risk to employees.

Edit to add: You should probably tell them that you want to add a risk premium to your rates, of say 4%, to "protect you from market fluctuations"

Edited by thermo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
Right.

I am a big fan of the addage: 'Given the choice of conspiracy and **** up, I go with the latter.'

Also, worth saying that the last thing the super rich want us to do is become serfs rather than consumers.

Think of the UK super rich list and think of how much they'd lose if the consumer dies on its backside and we're all living mouth to mouth.

Lakshmi Matal: Steel

Roman Abramovich: Oil

Duke of Westminster: Land

Richard Branson: Cheap flights, mobile phones, record shops, etc.

yes, ok. I can see your side of the coin. :)

I suppose my honest opinion would be a bit of both, some plotting & some genuine fook-ups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Right.

I am a big fan of the addage: 'Given the choice of conspiracy and **** up, I go with the latter.'

Also, worth saying that the last thing the super rich want us to do is become serfs rather than consumers.

Think of the UK super rich list and think of how much they'd lose if the consumer dies on its backside and we're all living mouth to mouth.

Lakshmi Matal: Steel

Roman Abramovich: Oil

Duke of Westminster: Land

Richard Branson: Cheap flights, mobile phones, record shops, etc.

Also worth mentioning 2 or 3 of those may well have been surfs themselves if things were always like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 356 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.