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time_and_tide

A Year Is A Long Time In Hpc

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It’s a brave bear to call the top, it's been called too many times before, too many paws have been burnt - and bulls just lurve reminding us of the fact :angry: ...

So no predictions from me, just a reminder of what has changed in the last 12 months :

- IRs 1% pont higher

- General expectations of further rises

- Bearish media comment up massively from almost zero a year ago

- Serious problems in the US with no respite in sight

- House prices in many areas already stagnating and falling

- Increasing fears of inflation

Wishful thinking ? :unsure:

The air certainly smells different from a year back – it smells of honey. :)

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It’s a brave bear to call the top, it's been called too many times before, too many paws have been burnt - and bulls just lurve reminding us of the fact :angry: ...

So no predictions from me, just a reminder of what has changed in the last 12 months :

- IRs 1% pont higher

- General expectations of further rises

- Bearish media comment up massively from almost zero a year ago

- Serious problems in the US with no respite in sight

- House prices in many areas already stagnating and falling

- Increasing fears of inflation

Wishful thinking ? :unsure:

The air certainly smells different from a year back – it smells of honey. :)

I think you're right - this is as I thought it would play out in 2005.

2008 is the crucial year. VI will describe the remainder of this year as "quiet, but to be expected". They willthen pump the market like crazy post Xmas and hope for an increase in demand from January onwards. If demand materialises then another year of stagnant prices and enough sales to keep the market moving sluggishly along. If no demand (and at the moment it's a very real possibility) then 2008 will see prices tumbling 10 - 15%.

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Prices in Peterborough (My Home town) are already stagnated. My friends (a newly married couple) own a very nice 2 bed stone built cottage in a village just outside Peterborough and have had no interest at 190k for 6 months! They paid 160 for it. Lot's of the big property's in the area are also up for rent.

My mates father-inlaw told me recently that he has sold all his property and has advised them (my mate and his daughter) to lower their price so they can sell it and move back in with him for the time being (he also happens to be a senior mason :)

Mark..

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Prices in Peterborough (My Home town) are already stagnated. My friends (a newly married couple) own a very nice 2 bed stone built cottage in a village just outside Peterborough and have had no interest at 190k for 6 months! They paid 160 for it. Lot's of the big property's in the area are also up for rent.

My mates father-inlaw told me recently that he has sold all his property and has advised them (my mate and his daughter) to lower their price so they can sell it and move back in with him for the time being (he also happens to be a senior mason :)

Mark..

If you don't mind my asking, when did they buy?

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If you don't mind my asking, when did they buy?

They got married last may (06) and moved in in late June so around that time. I can remember him having this conversation with me around xmas about how he had made 30k and I was trying to tell him that he hadnt made anything until he had sold, released his "equity" and moved into a tent :) until such time it was all speculative.

Mark.

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Prices in Peterborough (My Home town) are already stagnated. My friends (a newly married couple) own a very nice 2 bed stone built cottage in a village just outside Peterborough and have had no interest at 190k for 6 months! They paid 160 for it. Lot's of the big property's in the area are also up for rent.

My mates father-inlaw told me recently that he has sold all his property and has advised them (my mate and his daughter) to lower their price so they can sell it and move back in with him for the time being (he also happens to be a senior mason :)

Mark..

They may be lucky to get 2005 prices for the house with so much coming onto the market and few interested buyers it reminds me of 1988. People were stampeding over each other and offering ridiculous prices then a couple of interest rate rises spoilt the party and suddenly the estate agents were quiet only sellers were popping in. There will be no Houdini escape this time. If they can't sell better hatch down for 15 years/20 years.

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Prices in Peterborough (My Home town) are already stagnated. My friends (a newly married couple) own a very nice 2 bed stone built cottage in a village just outside Peterborough and have had no interest at 190k for 6 months! They paid 160 for it. Lot's of the big property's in the area are also up for rent.

My mates father-inlaw told me recently that he has sold all his property and has advised them (my mate and his daughter) to lower their price so they can sell it and move back in with him for the time being (he also happens to be a senior mason :)

Mark..

I was up in Peterborough a few weeks ago, I was astounded at the number of new build estates going up including houses and flates many at the point of completion but many at ground level. It is difficult to estimate the number of units but it must be a massive increase as a percentage of existing. I noted the high proportion of Polish/Eastern European people throughout and around the town it seems a very high proportion, but maybe they just happened to be in all the places I visited (tried some Polish sausage in the market which was quite good, is that market just for Polish goods?) Like Reading and Southampton it looks like some sizeable Polish communities (ghettos?) are building up. But will they fill all these new developments?

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The peak was February this year, when I sold my flat, banked the equity and moved into a rented 3 bed for half the price of a mortgage on the same property.

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Yep, certainly interesting times.

I've read the slatings that some bulls have given out on here in the past. But I really think that the screw is starting to turn on this whole fiasco.

As the IRA used to say "You have to be right everytime, we only have to be right once".

It doesn't matter how many property porn REPEATS that the gogglebox pumps out, sentiment is really changing especially in the media.

Its starting to look like the lookout on the titanic "ICEBERG off the port bow!!" - "Too late!!" - "CRUNCH!!" - Glug,glug, - Closer my god to thee etc.

Inflation is up, up and away. (Not Zimbabwe proportions obviously - but its not going away" .

The Government is still saying that inflation will come down as fuel/oil prices drop, but the pumps are definately up at the moment & food isn't far behind. So I'm not seeing this at all.

So rates will have to rise again for sure, I reckon it will crawl up to over 6%. By 1/4 points as they still need a soft landing. (I fear we are too far gone for this)

More people I know are nodding about the likelyhood of a crash or sharp correction now than they ever did last year (Or are they just agreeing with me, because I'm on my obsessional soapbox again? - "say yes, it may make him shut up!")

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More people I know are nodding about the likelyhood of a crash or sharp correction now than they ever did last year (Or are they just agreeing with me, because I'm on my obsessional soapbox again? - "say yes, it may make him shut up!")

My perception is that things have changed a lot since last summer.

It seemed to me at that time, the forums here were full of predictions of catastrophe, but HPC.co.uk was just for crazies -- a fairly lonely voice among many bullish outlets. Also, lots of posters were asserting that a crash would happen based upon little more than gut feeling (it seemed to me). Further, when I spoke to people about the possibility of a crash, they were at best surprised at the possibility, at worst totally incredulous.

This summer, HPC.co.uk is relatively bull-free, and the mainstream media is talking about the possibility of a 'slowdown' or 'correction'. Posters now seem to have more evidence for their bearish tendencies. Mention the idea that you've just STR'd (or are about to), and people have mostly said to me, 'I don't blame you, mate' and 'Sounds like a shrewd idea.' Very few I've spoken to lately are surprised any more about the notion of a crash (and, it seems to me, that alone may be enough to turn the tide -- just that people aren't so sure any more).

Last year, I decided against selling my house (although discovering HPC.co.uk did stop me from buying a bigger house and letting out the one I was in). This year, STR seems more obviously a sensible thing.

Let's hope it is! ;)

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They got married last may (06) and moved in in late June so around that time. I can remember him having this conversation with me around xmas about how he had made 30k and I was trying to tell him that he hadnt made anything until he had sold, released his "equity" and moved into a tent :) until such time it was all speculative.

Mark.

They paid £160k in June 06 and wanted £190k at the start of 2007? They really thought they could blag nearly 20% in six months in the boonies around Peterborough? Incredible behaviour.

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yep a year is a long time- this time last year prices in london were around 15-20k cheaper :(

i think what we all want is affordable housing-and i dont see the situation chainging dramatically over the course of the next year- it could take several years for prices to become affordable

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there was never going to be a house price crash whilst there was

a - a prerception that property only ever goes up

b - controlled inflation

c - historically low interest rates

d - lax credit lending criteria

the media have turned 180 degrees on point a and now HPC is on the cards for the media

BOE have barely got control of point b

BOE have seen to point c being crossed off

The lenders must be getting nervous of point d with all that is going on in the US

the first 3 points lead to house prices drifting level or maybe slightly lower

point d leads to a house price crash of epic proportions - house prices back to 2001 levels a 40% fall. If you can only borrow £100,000 on your salary and not £180,000 there is no amount of demand that will lift prices.

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They paid £160k in June 06 and wanted £190k at the start of 2007? They really thought they could blag nearly 20% in six months in the boonies around Peterborough? Incredible behaviour.

Yes and they are (were) amongst the bull gloaters of my friends whose only advice I have had over the past couple years is "on your money you should be buying houses and renting them out" blah blah.

Mark..

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Guest grumpy-old-man
It's a brave bear to call the top, it's been called too many times before, too many paws have been burnt - and bulls just lurve reminding us of the fact :angry: ...

So no predictions from me, just a reminder of what has changed in the last 12 months :

- IRs 1% pont higher

- General expectations of further rises

- Bearish media comment up massively from almost zero a year ago

- Serious problems in the US with no respite in sight

- House prices in many areas already stagnating and falling

- Increasing fears of inflation

Wishful thinking ? :unsure:

The air certainly smells different from a year back – it smells of honey. :)

Q1 2007. B):D

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there was never going to be a house price crash whilst there was

a - a prerception that property only ever goes up

b - controlled inflation

c - historically low interest rates

d - lax credit lending criteria

the media have turned 180 degrees on point a and now HPC is on the cards for the media

BOE have barely got control of point b

BOE have seen to point c being crossed off

The lenders must be getting nervous of point d with all that is going on in the US

the first 3 points lead to house prices drifting level or maybe slightly lower

point d leads to a house price crash of epic proportions - house prices back to 2001 levels a 40% fall. If you can only borrow £100,000 on your salary and not £180,000 there is no amount of demand that will lift prices.

All the factors seem to be turning together and they're all accentuating each other. A very vicious circle indeed. :o

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