StuB Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Apologies if this has already been posted.... http://money.uk.msn.com/Investing/Insight/...umentid=5301910 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest casaloco Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 No we are heading for THE Recession. This will be the big one. The one that results in riots and hundreds of people throwing themselves off buildings. The one that decimates the population by starving people to death. People say it "different this tmie" and people reply "No it's not". Well it is. In the last HPC and Recession, britain had a large manufacturing industry. Despite the Recession we still had the underlying ability to make things and sell them abroad. Now all the factories have been knocked down and "executive apartments" put up in their place. Once the credit tap is turned off, there is no other source of money. Think russia will keep supplying us with gas for free? Think again. Electricity? It will be like living in the 17th century. This is the big lights out. Britain will take 50 years to recover. House prices will never be as high again as they are now. The land speculators have sold up and moved off, taking all the money with them. Kiss your jobs and houses goodbye, and prepare for life on the streets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinking Feeling Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 I was just looking for that article, I saw it at lunchtime and couldn't find it. I'm beginning to become very disturbed. Sometime in the last few weeks I went to bed a contrarian who talked to a small band of other people with similar opinions of the world, and woke up with what increasingly seem to be mainstream views.......or maybe it's just that the rest of the world is finally waking up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 It's got EU bailout with transition / convergence plan to full Euro membership written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Most Curious Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Gosh , what a depressing reply, can you not think of any more positive to say please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Alan "Big Al" Greenspan got it right the first time he was quoted: a recession is probable. 4th Q 2007 should see the first of 3 down Qs = recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harris Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Not even the slightest chance of a recession in the next 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otters Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Not even the slightest chance of a recession in the next 2 years. Good! at last a post with reason and logic that makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseBear Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Not even the slightest chance of a recession in the next 2 years. If true inflation rates are used (money supply less growth) the recession has already begun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CareBearStare Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 No we are heading for THE Recession. This will be the big one. The one that results in riots and hundreds of people throwing themselves off buildings. The one that decimates the population by starving people to death.People say it "different this tmie" and people reply "No it's not". Well it is. In the last HPC and Recession, britain had a large manufacturing industry. Despite the Recession we still had the underlying ability to make things and sell them abroad. Now all the factories have been knocked down and "executive apartments" put up in their place. Once the credit tap is turned off, there is no other source of money. Think russia will keep supplying us with gas for free? Think again. Electricity? It will be like living in the 17th century. This is the big lights out. Britain will take 50 years to recover. House prices will never be as high again as they are now. The land speculators have sold up and moved off, taking all the money with them. Kiss your jobs and houses goodbye, and prepare for life on the streets. Calm down dear, it's a correction! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Apologies if this has already been posted....http://money.uk.msn.com/Investing/Insight/...umentid=5301910 Just like 1988. Was it Nigel Lawson the Chancellor the Exchequer "There will be no recession". Then Norman Lamont classic early 90s "We shouldn't talk ourself into recession". The big difference this time is the USA is in a huge mess this time. Its going to be a biggie this time. A good tip if you have cash in the bank 1) Check if it is insurable with the government in the event of the bank going under. 2) If so check the amount that is insurable. You may have to spread your cash around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Lister Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 No we are heading for THE Recession. This will be the big one. The one that results in riots and hundreds of people throwing themselves off buildings. The one that decimates the population by starving people to death.People say it "different this tmie" and people reply "No it's not". Well it is. In the last HPC and Recession, britain had a large manufacturing industry. Despite the Recession we still had the underlying ability to make things and sell them abroad. Now all the factories have been knocked down and "executive apartments" put up in their place. Once the credit tap is turned off, there is no other source of money. Think russia will keep supplying us with gas for free? Think again. Electricity? It will be like living in the 17th century. This is the big lights out. Britain will take 50 years to recover. House prices will never be as high again as they are now. The land speculators have sold up and moved off, taking all the money with them. Kiss your jobs and houses goodbye, and prepare for life on the streets. Are you talking about 89-93 HPC/Resession, if so I certainly don't remember us having a particularly large manufacturing base, I think Maggie had got rid of most of it by then because it was losing so much money and un-able to compete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 I read an excellent Internal <major financial institution> "outlook" report today. It was highly entertaining. basically I have never read anything which so clearly indicated to me we were headed for a recession. this is prop reseach by highly motivated/renumerated professionals. it didn't say that recession is coming in fact it said the opposite it growth has been good inflation in control etc etc talk of "recession" (yep it very clearly displayed that word) would be "alarmist" If your a pro economist you don't casually drop the R word into your report you use it with precision, with meaning with flare. Like a samurai warrior weilding a finely crafted sword. you don't state that there is going to be a recession you plant the seeds of thought you gently ease the thoughts into the minds of your readers. by stating that 'a slide in house prices is not very likely' you probe you tease your audience asking them to validate your statment using their own knowledge. genius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyGuru Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Not even the slightest chance of a recession in the next 2 years. you must be a touch typist. Unless you've discovered some magic way of seeing even when your head is stuck up your ar5e Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downandout Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Depends how you define a 'recession'. Using the 'dictionary' definition a recession is a decline in GDP for 2 or more quarters. Therefore we have to wait until at least next year for one. However, the Business Cycle Dating Committe defines a recession as: "...the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out." Neither of which suggests any level of severity. I think what Casaloco is describing is more akin to a 'depression.' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest casaloco Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Actually what I'm describing is a f*cking nightmare. (Goes off to search the guns section on ebay) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) yes we are going into recession (well I actually think a really bad recession or depression) Royal Mail are to strike, just announced on the news, or did I hear wrongly? (strikes were predicted on here by a few posters), 11 years since the last one. pay deals below the made up inflation figures ( imagine if they had to give wage inflation based on the REAL inflation figures ) are a sure sign to me where we are headed, well that plus a whole lot of other very important indicators. Edited June 21, 2007 by grumpy-old-man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinking Feeling Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Recessions hit pretty frequently, not sure why anyone would even bother debating whether we will have one. Whether we end up in a depression in 3 years time is a matter for debate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Recessions hit pretty frequently, not sure why anyone would even bother debating whether we will have one. Whether we end up in a depression in 3 years time is a matter for debate! yes that's true, it depends on how things play out over the next couple of years. I think we are going to see a lot more strikes this & next year. Nurses, binmen, teachers etc........ untill they manage to abolish all the unions of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) Got a bit carried away but yeah we should have had a correction in 2001 but 9/11 got the MPC scared, then in 2003 they started smoking crack and slahsed rates, then just left rates alone until 2007 where they raised them 0.5%. We were heading to a recession prior to 9/11. The dot com bubble burst in 2000 http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/01/16/dotcom_value_drops/ Published Tuesday 16th January 2001 14:58 GMT "US dotcoms saw almost 90 per cent wiped off their value last year as investor jitters hit the bubble economy." 6 Sep Hold at 5% down from 7.25% at start, very little room for error now. 9/11 MPC panic "Lord George said he and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee " did not have much of a choice" as they battled to prevent the UK being dragged into a worldwide economic slump by slashing interest rates. And he said his legacy to the current MPC was to "sort out" the problems he had caused." Rates crash to 4% for 2002 but stay solid 4% entire year. Maybe time to raise rates and gain breathing space cool the housing market. MPC start smoking crack. Rates at 3.5% The average price increased by 16.98% from £149,935 in 2003 to £175,401 for the same period in 2004 sales go up 20%. Mortgage is about £800pm over 20 years or £500 Interest only. Average man with average salaray in average house can afford to pay two mortgages without trouble. Couples can maybe pay 4 . People take out secured loans of increased 16.98% of property value or £24,000 in cash. Inflation rises out of control blah blah blah manufacturing collapses, 7 Million moved to economically inactive, unemployment rises, quality of life falls on all measures, child poverty increases, credit booms again, unsecured lending more secured lending, rates are held low, blah blah blah, 10 year high in CCJ on the unsecured.blah blah blah 2007 MPC raise rates 0.5% in 6 months and next month 0.75% total. Edited June 21, 2007 by maxwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest casaloco Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Martial Law anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wad Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) It will be like living in the 17th century.This is the big lights out. Britain will take 50 years to recover. House prices will never be as high again as they are now. The land speculators have sold up and moved off, taking all the money with them. Kiss your jobs and houses goodbye, and prepare for life on the streets. So I guess you are fairly bearish then? Remember though, the time to buy is when blood is in the streets. I have to admit my stash is ready to take the plunge - its just a matter of keeping my hands in my pockets long enough to take maximum advantage. I have to admit I am getting quite worried and yet strangely excited . Edited June 21, 2007 by Wad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Skint Academic Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Martial Law anyone? I didn't know Channel 5 was repeating it ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Farticus Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 The only miracle in this labour economy is how they have managed to delay recession judgement day for so long! I think it has a lot to do with how they have made every soul in Britain a borrow/spendaholich. While it is hard to predict WHEN it will hit When it does hit it will be a f**king sledgehammer Never before has so much been owed by so many, NEVER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest casaloco Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Most companies will lay off their entire workforce. Supermarkets will lock up and not re-open. Petrol station will run dry in 24 hours. Property will essentialy loose all value. The banks will sell the houses at auction to the elite landlords, who will be buying them enmass with the money they made from HPI. Society will begin to desolve. After a month the police force will collapse with the officers having nowhere to live. The military will mostly be stuck abroad with no way of returning home. Those element of the military that are here will be disarmed and dibanded to prevent them from overthrowing the government. With no police force, the banks will be able to reposess the houses but will have no-one to throw the old OOs out. Eventually the banks will be forced to hire in a millitia, probably from abroad, to restore order and get the people out of the homes they have lost. Everyone will be forced out into the streets. We will have the astounding situation of england being full of houses, but 2/3 of the population being homeless. Looting will be rife and food riots will break out. Hospitals will close. Fires will burn for weeks. Central London will be turned into a fortress. The elite landlords will live in penthouses, protected by an army of armed guards, and teams of people will be employed to leave the "green zone" (I like that name!) and travel out into the country to collect the rents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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