harris Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%. Exactly the same, which I think will be the trough. Figures heading back up in August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%. The numbers are such a joke, toilet roll a month ago 99p, now £1.11p. By my simple maths that's about a 11% hike.... 2.4%, my a$$!! Mind you I think they class that as a 'luxury item' because it has V.A.T on it. Now where did I put The Independant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Next month Merv will be announcing that they no longer use the CPI to base their decisions on. IMO, that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harris Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Exactly the same, which I think will be the trough. Figures heading back up in August. They'll be down to around 2.2% in August, but will rise after that unless the rate increases start to have an impact. There are some initial signs of this. For instance Ryanair, Tesco and Sainsburys have all reported numbers, which while still good, were below forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Next month Merv will be announcing that they no longer use the CPI to base their decisions on. IMO, that is. Your opinion is worth £1.11, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dude wheres my house Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Now where did I put The Independant? I think its beside the dictionary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 I think its beside the dictionary Sorry about that, foolish mistake, spelling has never been my strong point. Looked it up should have an 'e' instead of an 'a'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 They'll be down to around 2.2% in August. With rising petrol prices that will require some fudging of the basket - wouldn't put it past them though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%. You were 0.1% out last time, so I'm going for 2.5% with an outside chance of 2.4%. Another 5-4 hold and a hike in August to coincide with the inflation report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Another 5-4 hold and a hike in August to coincide with the inflation report. And in keeping with the BOE cowards .25% rise per three month average! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 And in keeping with the BOE cowards .25% rise per three month average! Yes. They love boiled frog at the MPC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ripandcap Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 The numbers are such a joke, toilet roll a month ago 99p, now £1.11p. By my simple maths that's about a 11% hike.... 2.4%, my a$$!! Mind you I think they class that as a 'luxury item' because it has V.A.T on it. Now where did I put The Independant? Thats due to demand. Many people are sh1tt1ng them selves over their mortgage repayments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 (edited) They'll be down to around 2.2% in August, but will rise after that unless the rate increases start to have an impact. There are some initial signs of this. For instance Ryanair, Tesco and Sainsburys have all reported numbers, which while still good, were below forecasts. Will be interesting to see who "quesses" the best I would quess a rise to 2.7 which would be the start of the accelerating of IRs. I was impressed by Mervyns trick but he's had to stretch to the limit to be able to get under the 2.5%. I will be listening very very carfully to his next prediction on inflation trend, and the excuses he'll be making; global forces, rates, prices, shortages, economics or possibly even simpler "wasnt my fault it was the rest of em and the money supply, I warned yer, didnt I?" Big difference in our predictions Harris @ 2.2 in Aug and Flat Bear @ 2.7 (1/2%) The difference between a hike or no action maybe? Edited June 20, 2007 by Flat Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichB Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Ok, but what do you reckon RPI will be? Up from 4.8%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Ok, but what do you reckon RPI will be? Up from 4.8%? Quess slightly down in July. Remember the last time CPI was at 2.4 RPI was only around 3.4 so it looks like the CPI figure is being flattered at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinking Feeling Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 2.7%- the real shock won't hit until October by my reckoning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdc Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 2.7%- the real shock won't hit until October by my reckoning! This is right. I think 2.4. We won't see a significant rise until at the earliest the price of oil in sterling is higher than it was twelve months previously. That is likely to come in October - it fell from $74 to $57 between August and October last year. Oil is currently at about $70. While that's identical to a year ago, it's cheaper in sterling because the dollar is worth less (delete the space between those words or not, as you see fit) - it's £35 now, whereas $70 a year ago was £38.50. The pound was at $1.97 by 1st December, so prices will be comparable again by then if we don't see any major movements). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 every month i say it will be 46% - if i hold on long enough then eventually i will be correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinking Feeling Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 every month i say it will be 46% - if i hold on long enough then eventually i will be correct 46%- I think you're thinking of the real rate of inflation not the made up CPI! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 It was interesting to see so many getting the CPI figure spot on. It will be even more interesting next month where there is quite a divergence in the trend with some thinking the rate will drop even further than this month and others, like myself, believing there will a sizable increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wait & See Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 (edited) Wish the BOE would get a move on and crash the market, like they know they will have to soon, anyway. :angry: All this drawn out 0.25% crap is really wearing thin. Inflation over 2% - IR's need to rise every month to control it. The BOE know they have to crash the market now to save the economy, or let it all go down the shi**er, so whats the hold up (1% a month should be the going rate at the moment). Who gives a toss about HPI anyway (oh sorry - thats right, 95% of the population are VI's). Edited July 17, 2007 by Wait & See Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davros Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 It was interesting to see so many getting the CPI figure spot on. It will be even more interesting next month where there is quite a divergence in the trend with some thinking the rate will drop even further than this month and others, like myself, believing there will a sizable increase. I don't think it was much of a surprise. The 'sensible' prediction range would have been 2.2-2.5, which works out as 1 in 4. Not bad odds! Next month will only be marginally more interesting. I am a cynic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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