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harris

Next Months Cpi Figure Prediction

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My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%.

Exactly the same, which I think will be the trough. Figures heading back up in August.

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My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%.

The numbers are such a joke, toilet roll a month ago 99p, now £1.11p. By my simple maths that's about a 11% hike.... 2.4%, my a$$!! Mind you I think they class that as a 'luxury item' because it has V.A.T on it. Now where did I put The Independant?

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Exactly the same, which I think will be the trough. Figures heading back up in August.

They'll be down to around 2.2% in August, but will rise after that unless the rate increases start to have an impact. There are some initial signs of this. For instance Ryanair, Tesco and Sainsburys have all reported numbers, which while still good, were below forecasts.

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My prediction is 2.4% with an outside chance it will be 2.3%.

You were 0.1% out last time, so I'm going for 2.5% with an outside chance of 2.4%.

Another 5-4 hold and a hike in August to coincide with the inflation report.

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The numbers are such a joke, toilet roll a month ago 99p, now £1.11p. By my simple maths that's about a 11% hike.... 2.4%, my a$$!! Mind you I think they class that as a 'luxury item' because it has V.A.T on it. Now where did I put The Independant?

Thats due to demand. Many people are sh1tt1ng them selves over their mortgage repayments.

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They'll be down to around 2.2% in August, but will rise after that unless the rate increases start to have an impact. There are some initial signs of this. For instance Ryanair, Tesco and Sainsburys have all reported numbers, which while still good, were below forecasts.

Will be interesting to see who "quesses" the best I would quess a rise to 2.7 which would be the start of the accelerating of IRs.

I was impressed by Mervyns trick but he's had to stretch to the limit to be able to get under the 2.5%. I will be listening very very carfully to his next prediction on inflation trend, and the excuses he'll be making; global forces, rates, prices, shortages, economics or possibly even simpler "wasnt my fault it was the rest of em and the money supply, I warned yer, didnt I?"

Big difference in our predictions Harris @ 2.2 in Aug and Flat Bear @ 2.7 (1/2%) The difference between a hike or no action maybe?

Edited by Flat Bear

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Ok, but what do you reckon RPI will be? Up from 4.8%?

Quess slightly down in July. Remember the last time CPI was at 2.4 RPI was only around 3.4 so it looks like the CPI figure is being flattered at this time.

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2.7%- the real shock won't hit until October by my reckoning!

This is right. I think 2.4. We won't see a significant rise until at the earliest the price of oil in sterling is higher than it was twelve months previously. That is likely to come in October - it fell from $74 to $57 between August and October last year.

Oil is currently at about $70. While that's identical to a year ago, it's cheaper in sterling because the dollar is worth less (delete the space between those words or not, as you see fit) - it's £35 now, whereas $70 a year ago was £38.50. The pound was at $1.97 by 1st December, so prices will be comparable again by then if we don't see any major movements).

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It was interesting to see so many getting the CPI figure spot on. It will be even more interesting next month where there is quite a divergence in the trend with some thinking the rate will drop even further than this month and others, like myself, believing there will a sizable increase.

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Wish the BOE would get a move on and crash the market, like they know they will have to soon, anyway. :angry:

All this drawn out 0.25% crap is really wearing thin. Inflation over 2% - IR's need to rise every month to control it.

The BOE know they have to crash the market now to save the economy, or let it all go down the shi**er, so whats the hold up (1% a month should be the going rate at the moment).

Who gives a toss about HPI anyway (oh sorry - thats right, 95% of the population are VI's). :rolleyes:

Edited by Wait & See

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It was interesting to see so many getting the CPI figure spot on. It will be even more interesting next month where there is quite a divergence in the trend with some thinking the rate will drop even further than this month and others, like myself, believing there will a sizable increase.

I don't think it was much of a surprise. The 'sensible' prediction range would have been 2.2-2.5, which works out as 1 in 4. Not bad odds! Next month will only be marginally more interesting. I am a cynic. :P

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