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Realistbear

L R Data Back Up On B B C Website?

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After being hastily removed weeks ago it appears to be back up and revised on 14th June:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm

Last Updated: Thursday,
14 June 2007
, 17:30 GMT 18:30 UK
Warwickshire
£200,075
-4.1%
2419 (number of sales)

I can't remember what the figure was on the pre-revised BBC data? Down 4.1% for the 1st Q is not bad I suppose. It sounds better as an annualised figure though. Nothing like a nice chunky double digit fall building.

Just checked Stratford--they are doing a bit better than the county as a whole:

Stratford-On-Avon
£253,009
-6.0%
Edited by Realistbear

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After being hastily removed weeks ago it appears to be back up and revised on 14th June:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm

Last Updated: Thursday,
14 June 2007
, 17:30 GMT 18:30 UK
Warwickshire
£200,075
-4.1%
2419 (number of sales)

I can't remember what the figure was on the pre-revised BBC data? Down 4.1% for the 1st Q is not bad I suppose. It sounds better as an annualised figure though. Nothing like a nice chunky double digit fall building.

Just checked Stratford--they are doing a bit better than the county as a whole:

Stratford-On-Avon
£253,009
-6.0%

Despite being raw data (ie not mix adjusted) it's certainly nice to see that the change is negative rather than positive.

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I wonder if the bulls/neithers will have anything to say? The silence so far is a bit deafening. This data seems to suggest that Grumpyoldman got it right by calling the turn in Q1.

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I wonder if the bulls/neithers will have anything to say? The silence so far is a bit deafening. This data seems to suggest that Grumpyoldman got it right by calling the turn in Q1.

You have to admire GOM to sticking to his guns in the face of the 'official' evidence to the contrary.

I've always thought that the QoQ negative will even filter through to the LR official data by end of Q2 but this is giving us an early taste of some tasty bear food to come

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-2.1% last quarter in Bristol. This is a big turn around - the market here was very bullish up until April.

2-bed houses are still selling like hot cakes. Everything else is sticking.

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Guest Shedfish
I wonder if the bulls/neithers will have anything to say? The silence so far is a bit deafening. This data seems to suggest that Grumpyoldman got it right by calling the turn in Q1.

not just GOM :rolleyes:

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Guest grumpy-old-man
I wonder if the bulls/neithers will have anything to say? The silence so far is a bit deafening. This data seems to suggest that Grumpyoldman got it right by calling the turn in Q1.

cheers RB & Tuffers. :unsure::unsure:

I owe a lot to several posters on here that gave me the insight into other areas of the economy (& the US economy) that highlighted the fact that the UK housing market was on the turn.

There are a few others that also called it (prob a few before myself, but are too modest to say anything, unlike me :rolleyes: ) & there are a lot of posters on here that know far, far more about the economy, stock markets, housing market than me.

anyway, I would just like to thank the posters on this site that have helped me gain a good insight into the economy & housing market (both UK & US), both of which I knew very little about before I joined. :)

Q1 2007. B)B)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Milton Keynes up 0.2% ....Northampton (just up the road) up 21.8%

Am I missing something? Or are these figures screwed?

yes, look at the Quarterly figures. ;)

ok, Northampton is still positive with .2%, but wait til the next quarter, you have to trust me on this.

edited - where did you get 21.8% from ? I get it as 8.1% annual & .2% quarterly as above.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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yes, look at the Quarterly figures. ;)

As far as I can see, they are the quarterly figures! :(

**EDIT** Sorry... confusing Northampton with Northamptonshire... One of those days!!!

Edited by JumboMills

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anyway, I would just like to thank the posters on this site that have helped me gain a good insight into the economy & housing market (both UK & US), both of which I knew very little about before I joined. :)

I would too :)

Might even be getting educated enough now to choose 'bull' or 'bear'! Now what will it be......

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Guest grumpy-old-man
As far as I can see, they are the quarterly figures! :(

**EDIT** Sorry... confusing Northampton with Northamptonshire... One of those days!!!

no probs, we all do it. :)

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Guest wrongmove
Milton Keynes up 0.2% ....Northampton (just up the road) up 21.8%

Am I missing something? Or are these figures screwed?

LR figs are just a simple average of everything sold.

So if a few additional big properties sell, the average can go up, even when prices are falling.

Or, if very few large houses sell, with a rush of activity at the low end, the average can go down, even when prices are rising.

They are not seasonally adjusted either, so they tend to emphasis the busy spring/summer periods and the slow winter periods that occur pretty well every year, boom or bust.

This is all made even worse by the small sample for regions or specific types of property - check out N. Warks detached, up over 20% QoQ, for example. By selecting certain regions/property types, you can make these figures show anything you want.

Best to wait for the new monthly, mix adjusted LR figs IMHO, or use the FT-MA index which has a very record of predicting these figures months in advance.

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Milton Keynes up 0.2% ....Northampton (just up the road) up 21.8%

Am I missing something? Or are these figures screwed?

Neither. Might be sample size. The sample for my area was well over 2,000 sales.

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Elmbridge - up 5.8% in last quarter and 17.2% over the year for all properties. I'd say that's probably about right.

Make it detached houses and it's 9.7% in a quarter and 25.5% over the year.

It's flats that seem to be bringing the average down.

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Grumpy Old Man

".......anyway, I would just like to thank the posters on this site that have helped me gain a good insight into the economy & housing market (both UK & US), both of which I knew very little about before I joined. :)

Q1 2007. B)B)

Here, Very Much Here.

BTW this can't be right; North Yorkshire - 22.6% Qtr -16.9% annual.

They should be plusses - must be a typograhical error. Hopefully

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yes, look at the Quarterly figures. ;)

ok, Northampton is still positive with .2%, but wait til the next quarter, you have to trust me on this.

edited - where did you get 21.8% from ? I get it as 8.1% annual & .2% quarterly as above.

I think Northampton is an odd market because Estate Agents 'O’Ridion Bond' have such a large market share in the town - and thus control pricing to some extent.

However, prices do appear to be dropping in surrounding areas, so it won't be long before we see some nice negative figures. Although I doubt you'll read about it in the Chronicle and Echo (local paper) until its old news!

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Guest d23
Neither. Might be sample size. The sample for my area was well over 2,000 sales.

according to the monthly Land registry House Price Index your area (Warwickshire) showed the following

Jan 2006

Average Price: 176243

Monthly change: 0.3

Annual change: 4.9

Feb 2006

Average Price: 177,372

Monthly change: 0.7

Annual change: 4.6

March 2006

Average Price: 179,040

Monthly change: 0.7

Annual change: 4.9

not sure how that could translate as a quarterly fall but I guess Spline could tell us

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Does anyone know the q1 figures from last year...

Also is this not really Q4 06???

Bizarrely enough, the official peak could be Q3 2006, though I think it is more likely to be Q2 2007.

National all houses figures below from LR data on Upmystreet:

Quarter England & Wales

2007 (jan-mar) £210,001

2006 (oct-dec) £203,455

2006 (jul-sep) £211,168

2006 (apr-jun) £198,571

2006 (jan-mar) £190,529

2005 (oct-dec) £190,976

2005 (jul-sep) £193,734

2005 (apr-jun) £182,964

The data is not seasonally adjusted.

It normally drops between Q3 and Q4, which it did this year.

Sometimes Q1 picks back up above the previous Q3, this time it just didn't manage it.

Nearly always Q2 picks up back above the previous Q3. But it didn't between 05 Q3 and 06 Q2.

Now the monthly LR figures for April were strong +ve, May were weak +ve. June we find out in two weeks time. I suspect flat or possibly first very slight MoM -ve.

So my suspicion is that Q2 07 will just squeeze above Q3 06, and will become the official peak.

However what we have here is more of a table mountain than an everest, with the LR data showing a near year long plateau.

Looking at the regional data, it is clear that what GOM and others have been saying is true. Most of the country has been crashing since the autumn of last year. It is just that the London bonus mini-boom has been hiding it for the last six months.

So the plateau has formed from a combination of two seperate peaks, UK minus London Q3 06, London Q2 07 probably.

With both NI and London grinding to a halt, we are going to step off a cliff edge Q3 as the holidays and autumn kick in.

Edited by kagiso

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