Converted Lurker Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Commenting on the mortgage market, Adrian Coles, Director-General of the BSA said: "It has been a slow start to the summer. Building society mortgage lending is down year on year, as the interest rate rises since August last year have started to take the heat out of the mortgage market. "New lending (net advances) fell year on year by 17%, having been buoyant since summer last year. Similarly approvals, loans agreed but not yet made, a good indicator of what will happen in the market over the next few months, were down year on year by 13%, having fallen year on year in April by 8%. "There is likely to be more subdued lending as the year progresses and the rate rises continue to feed through. Another rate rise would add to the slowdown later in the year and into 2008. However, a reasonably strong economic outlook, especially continuing robust employment, should provide support to lending and property prices http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick-Watcher Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Commenting on the mortgage market, Adrian Coles, Director-General of the BSA said:"It has been a slow start to the summer. Building society mortgage lending is down year on year, as the interest rate rises since August last year have started to take the heat out of the mortgage market. "New lending (net advances) fell year on year by 17%, having been buoyant since summer last year. Similarly approvals, loans agreed but not yet made, a good indicator of what will happen in the market over the next few months, were down year on year by 13%, having fallen year on year in April by 8%. "There is likely to be more subdued lending as the year progresses and the rate rises continue to feed through. Another rate rise would add to the slowdown later in the year and into 2008. However, a reasonably strong economic outlook, especially continuing robust employment, should provide support to lending and property prices http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0 More like people are borrowing instead from the latest dodgy banks from overseas (as recommended by their entirely trustwirthy mortgage brokers - do they have to declare their fee income for different mortgage offers to the client?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Come On Down Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Was looking at the CML Statistics earlier. The number of mortgages loaned out is seriously on the decline this year. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/2ML4.xls?ref=4626 Check out 2007 Q1 and monthly towards the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Commenting on the mortgage market, Adrian Coles, Director-General of the BSA said:"It has been a slow start to the summer. Building society mortgage lending is down year on year, as the interest rate rises since August last year have started to take the heat out of the mortgage market. "New lending (net advances) fell year on year by 17%, having been buoyant since summer last year. Similarly approvals, loans agreed but not yet made, a good indicator of what will happen in the market over the next few months, were down year on year by 13%, having fallen year on year in April by 8%. "There is likely to be more subdued lending as the year progresses and the rate rises continue to feed through. Another rate rise would add to the slowdown later in the year and into 2008. However, a reasonably strong economic outlook, especially continuing robust employment, should provide support to lending and property prices http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0 Now that is the first thing I've read that really gives me belief that this madness is finally in the process of unwinding. Houses round here are really sticking now. Although some are still selling I know of a number that have had the board up for 3 months or more - quite a bit more in a few cases and joint agency is with us again. I would say one house in 3 (that is for sale) has two boards outside it. If you are thinking of buying now - don't. You'll get the same property for a good bit less later this year or beginning of next. If at any point they drop interest rates - even by just 0.25% - the lesson from August 2005 is to buy immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Doom mongering in the Guardian again: http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/story/0,,2107309,00.html Robust mortgage market starts to cool Laura Howard Wednesday June 20, 2007 Guardian Unlimited Housing industry figures have started to show what many experts predicted - that in 2007 the market would start to cool in the second half of the year. According to the Building Societies Association (BSA), mortgage approvals (loans agreed by building societies but not yet completed - a useful indicator of the short-term future of the housing market) fell by 13% in May this year compared with May 2006, and in April this year they were 8% lower than in April 2006. Actual lending also dropped in May by 17% compared with the same month last year. How very different the stories appearing in the press these days. No a bull in sight. Has anyone noticed the absence of bulls on HPC lately? Even the neithers have quietened down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Even the neithers have quietened down. NOT ALL OF THEM!!!!! Yes, today's figures were a bid less bad (for people like me who want cheaper housing) than last year. But I should hope so! Last year saw double-digit HPI according to all the main indices. I would be seriously worried if approvals numbers were headed up But we still MoM rise in all the main indices, month after month. The level of approvals now is not at boom levels, but it is still some way above bust levels. We need these drops to be increased and sustained before I will be calling an imminent crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Was looking at the CML Statistics earlier.The number of mortgages loaned out is seriously on the decline this year. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/2ML4.xls?ref=4626 Check out 2007 Q1 and monthly towards the bottom. Serious decline? Doesn't look too serious to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Building Society Lending Down By 17% Year On Year So suprisingly virtually unchanged This is still a massive 83% on last year which equates to debts rising at around 83% of the pace of last year? It shows there has been no shortage of liquidity, yet. The unwinding of the carry trade has got some way to go. I think we'll see some changes by the beginning of 08. Can debt hit the 1.5 trillion before collapsing back? Will it be liquidity or affordability that will eventually cause the crisis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Serious decline? Doesn't look too serious to me... Nov 2006 106,000 down to Apr 2007 80,000. Come on down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Nov 2006 106,000 down to Apr 2007 80,000. Come on down. I'm afraid that is just seasonal. Q1 is always down on Q4. A better comparison is YoY as it avoids seasonality: Q1 2004: 296k Q1 2005: 196k Q1 2006: 234k Q1 2007: 238k So, down on 2004, but up on 2005 and about the same as last year. i.e. not much of a drop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 I'm afraid that is just seasonal. Q1 is always down on Q4.A better comparison is YoY as it avoids seasonality: Q1 2004: 296k Q1 2005: 196k Q1 2006: 234k Q1 2007: 238k So, down on 2004, but up on 2005 and about the same as last year. i.e. not much of a drop Ah. Not so exciting then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Ah.Not so exciting then. No, but April and May have shown YoY drops - these of course are not in the Q1 figs. Approvals are headed in the right direction. As I posted earlier, we need these trends to continue. Another IR rise next month would do no harm..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 This is what I find interesting: 1987 ..approvals . lent (£m) Q1 228,700 5,904 Q2 280,400 7,598 Q3 299,200 8,357 Q4 299,200 8,668 1988 Q1 284,500 8,566 Q2 337,600 11,123 Q3 366,200 13,244 Q4 261,200 8,939 1989 Q1 204,500 6,990 Q2 245,000 8,734 Q3 213,600 8,178 Q4 222,500 8,696 Everyone I know who was in the property game last time it crashed say it went down in 1988 with the end of DI MIRAS. But look at any graphs of house prices and the crash doesn't show up until at least 1989. The fall in approvals from 88 Q3 to 89 Q1 is about 42%. Even with seasonality this still a big drop - one that has no competition until 2005, and we all know what happened then... The current figure is 24%, which is noteworthy, but not unheard of. According to a seasonal trend we can expect the numbers to pick up for Q2 this year. If the number of approvals (currently 238,100) remains below 250,000 then we can expect nominal MoM price falls by the end of Q3. If it falls, we are talking meltdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 Everyone I know who was in the property game last time it crashed say it went down in 1988 with the end of DI MIRAS. But look at any graphs of house prices and the crash doesn't show up until at least 1989. The graphs usually show YoY figures, so there is a lag of 6-12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted June 20, 2007 Share Posted June 20, 2007 (edited) It’s interesting to see what happened in 1988 when interest rates moved from 8% to 13% in a few months and then went on up to 15% - look at how the transactions (HMRC) collapsed, closely followd by HPI. Note that YoY is effectively lagged by 6 months, and correlates with transactions/approvals 6 months earlier. HMRC Transactions - monthly BoE Reop Rates Graphs are from: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs/ Edited June 20, 2007 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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