Is This Guy For Real

[Ides of March]

In conversation with a 26 year old git who got lucky when his dad gave him a 50k deposit.

1. "At this rate my flat will be worth half a million in 10 years time" (2 bed flat in putney)

2. "I don't need to start a pension yet, I'll see how much my house rises in the next few years first"

3. "The flat upstairs is on the market now - I'm not sure why, we always agreed it was such a good investment"

"Crash and Burn"

[Van]

£50k inheritance, eh? You know what they say... "easy come, easy go!"

[CrashedOutAndBurned]

Of the few FTBs I know that've bought in the last couple of years, they've all earned well above the average for their age AND had a huge windfall/handout of the type mere mortals could never call on.

There's no point being narked - all these people have done by getting the inheritance before Dad's even in the grave and buying at the top is effectively squandered the lot.

[200p]

When somebody says they have bought a property - that doesnt automatically make them an expert in property markets. Doh

[he who dares]

Poor old dad 50k of his hard earned down the tube!

[Casual Observer]

2.  "I don't need to start a pension yet, I'll see how much my house rises in the next few years first"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How does he expect the value of his flat to provide a pension? Is he expecting to trade down to something cheaper??

[Numani]

How does he expect the value of his flat to provide a pension? Is he expecting to trade down to something cheaper??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Seems a lot of people have the same idea. Unless you plan on having more than one property or moving overseas to a cheap property climate then how do you get an income stream from it.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

How does he expect the value of his flat to provide a pension? Is he expecting to trade down to something cheaper??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hasn`t nobody told you? When you retire the good fairy leaves your pension under the floorboards.

[Ides of March]

Seriously though, guys like this really scare me. He has total faith in his house price doubling in the next 10 years.

Ignorance is bliss

[Casual Observer]

Seriously though, guys like this really scare me.  He has total faith in his house price doubling in the next 10 years.

Ignorance is bliss

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ask him what kind of person he expects will be buying it, and what sort of salary he might be on. Logical questioning usually helps people see the nonsense of their statements.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Seriously though, guys like this really scare me.  He has total faith in his house price doubling in the next 10 years.

Ignorance is bliss

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I am retired, no mortgage, no debts. I can downsize to what?, leave a nice comfortable semi in a nice area for a one bed flat in an area full of chavs. As I said in a previous thread I will take out a non repayable mortgage to supplement my income.

Never class your home as your sole pension it does not work out.

Only your beneficiaries can gain at the end of the day, and end up having to pay all that lovely interest you leave behind.

[FDbuytoletinvestor]

Okay this chap does seem extremely irritating many friends of mine were given 50k – 100k to buy property in their twenties. It’s an absolute kick in the jollies, even though you are supposed to be happy for them. Although one spent the money on a sports car which he promptly wrote off, try explaining that to father.

However, how long do you think it will take for prices to double? 10 years, 15, 20 or never? If he can hang on during “the crash†he could sell in the next boom.

Acknowledge to point about having nowhere to live and not being able to downsize. However at his age he can wait for the next boom?

[oracle]

the problem is his spurious logic.

house prices may never double in 10 years from now.

he's still under the impression that the working population will increase markedly,but the baby boomers retire en masee in the next 10-15 years,and will be drawing state pensions at the taxpayers expense,with less people in work to support them.

no doubt those with private pensions will take some as a lump sum,but they will probably spend it on cruises,cars etc. and it doesn't take that long to fritter away money!!,what's more to the point is the capital shock they will get once they have spent the windfall and are reliant on pension income alone.

downsizing then might not be an option if there is oversupply of housing(entirely possible if people get so horrified at this crash that the present single occuancy establishments decide they haven't the stomach for that lifestyle and revert to sharing)

[FDbuytoletinvestor]

Your demographic points are interesting; however what about the huge rise in single households (up 30% since 1951), divorcees, etc.

Furthermore we are producing 1.7 children per 2 adults which isn’t bad especially compared to Europe.

Also the rise of divorce is creating an influx of “glue babies†I really love you lets prove it with a baby. Birth rates are edging up. IVF treatment becoming more affordable and popular might further increase birth rates. Not to mention the 157,000 immigrants arriving each year, vital for the economy.

Finally I don’t think you can assume pensioners will blow their pension. Seems very irresponsible. Then again so does 1.1 trillion of debut!

[IMupNorth]

The official projection for the next 25 years is that the population will rise from the current 60 million to 66 million, from a combination of 3.5million additional immigrants and an increase of 2.5m because people are living longer.

So that should keep the demand pressure up. No wonder the Government wants to turn much of the South East into a housing estate.

Then when all these houses have been built, the melting ice caps will kick in and submerge them .....

(Statistics courtesy of ONS publication .... just in case zzg wants to argue them)

[davidjgay]

Your demographic points are interesting; however what about the huge rise in single households (up 30% since 1951), divorcees, etc.

Furthermore we are producing 1.7 children per 2 adults which isn’t bad especially compared to Europe.

Also the rise of divorce is creating an influx of “glue babies†I really love you lets prove it with a baby. Birth rates are edging up. IVF treatment becoming more affordable and popular might further increase birth rates. Not to mention the 157,000 immigrants arriving each year, vital for the economy.

Finally I don’t think you can assume pensioners will blow their pension. Seems very irresponsible. Then again so does 1.1 trillion of debut!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[davidjgay]

Your demographic points are interesting; however what about the huge rise in single households (up 30% since 1951), divorcees, etc.

Furthermore we are producing 1.7 children per 2 adults which isn’t bad especially compared to Europe.

Also the rise of divorce is creating an influx of “glue babies†I really love you lets prove it with a baby. Birth rates are edging up. IVF treatment becoming more affordable and popular might further increase birth rates. Not to mention the 157,000 immigrants arriving each year, vital for the economy.

Finally I don’t think you can assume pensioners will blow their pension. Seems very irresponsible. Then again so does 1.1 trillion of debut!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, sorry FDb - the demographics just don't stack up like that. Look at a bar chart of age groups in 5 year brackets and you'll see a MASSIVE dearth of anyone aged 0 - 30ish. The number of people in the 35-45group is colossal hence the housing boom (they all wanted houses at the same time...) now they've all bought there really is no-one left in comparison!

If you look at that same bar chart of age group numbers in the MIRROR you see a passable copy of the house-price graph! Really! And what happens after the big 35-45 age group moves off? A massive drop to the next youngest...and there aint any of them. ANd the ones that are there are in student debt.

The demographics are king!

Just look at popular culture from 1970 to present - it's all aimed at the group that is now 35-45. In 1977 they wanted Star Wars, in 1999 they wanted houses... they've gone on to other things now... babies perhaps? Babies, no matter how many there are cannot get mortgages.

Therefore -

THE DEMOGRAPHICS (WHICH ARE KING) SAY CRASH!

Thankyou

[zzg113]

Furthermore we are producing 1.7 children per 2 adults which isn’t bad especially compared to Europe

FDBTLI, it may have escaped you attention that the rate needed to simply keep the population STATIC, never mind increase it, is 2.1 children per woman. The fertility rate is currently 1.64, well below the replacement level. Because our demographic problems are not so devastatingly acute as those in Italy, for example, is not, in my view, something to sing from the rooftops.

Statistics courtesy of ONS publication .... just in case zzg wants to argue them)

IUN, a projection is only as good/accurate as the assumptions used to make it. Who is to say that the population of the UK will not vote with their feet in the coming years, fed up of the high taxes, low quality of life, high cost of living and extortionate price of housing? The ONS projection relies on the status quo continuing; that is a very dangerous assumption in my view, especially if the Conservatives win the general election and implement their plans for reducing the level of immigration.

[laurejon]

I think if the Tories carried out their plans to limit immigration then the UK Public may once again decide that Britain is a reasonable place to bring up children and start having children again.

Be honest who would plan to bring a child up without crap schools and unsafe streets and limited health care and non existant dentists.

[Jade]

I think if the Tories carried out their plans to limit immigration then the UK Public may once again decide that Britain is a reasonable place to bring up children and start having children again.

Be honest who would plan to bring a child up without crap schools and unsafe streets and limited health care and non existant dentists.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Jade]

I think if the Tories carried out their plans to limit immigration then the UK Public may once again decide that Britain is a reasonable place to bring up children and start having children again.

Be honest who would plan to bring a child up without crap schools and unsafe streets and limited health care and non existant dentists.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Bear Goggles]

I think if the Tories carried out their plans to limit immigration then the UK Public may once again decide that Britain is a reasonable place to bring up children and start having children again.

Be honest who would plan to bring a child up without crap schools and unsafe streets and limited health care and non existant dentists.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You don't seriously believe that immigration is the reason people in the developed world are having fewer children do you?

You're madder than I thought!

[Marina]

The official projection for the next 25 years is that the population will rise from the current 60 million to 66 million, from a combination of 3.5million additional immigrants and an increase of 2.5m because people are living longer.

So that should keep the demand pressure up. No wonder the Government wants to turn much of the South East into a housing estate.

Then when all these houses have been built, the melting ice caps will kick in and submerge them .....

(Statistics courtesy of ONS publication .... just in case zzg wants to argue them)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just a personal observation and another, not personal, observation.

The personal observation is - there seems to be a cancer epidemic underway at the moment. I know so many people in their 40s and 50s that are getting this.

The second is - I saw a statistic recently that said that life expectancy has just reduced (admittedly slightly) - for the first time since the day dot. Have we hit a peak and are now on a slippery slope the other way due to what? Mobile phones, radiation, tv or radio or satellite signals, food additives, pesticides, stress, anger etc. etc. A birth rate of 1.7 means a reduction of population of 15% every generation. So, in 20 years time our 60 million will be down to 51 million (other things being equal) so, add in the immigrants and maybe we will stay static. Unless something dramatic happens to our society - and I have read a figure of 1.6 for our birth rate - FTBs are getting older and older, people cannot afford children, or only have one etc. It all points one way - a diminishing population with massive taxation to pay the pensions. I am very glad I am not young.

[Night Owl]

The official projection for the next 25 years is that the population will rise from the current 60 million to 66 million, from a combination of 3.5million additional immigrants and an increase of 2.5m because people are living longer.

So that should keep the demand pressure up. No wonder the Government wants to turn much of the South East into a housing estate.

Then when all these houses have been built, the melting ice caps will kick in and submerge them .....

(Statistics courtesy of ONS publication .... just in case zzg wants to argue them)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I wonder to what extent immigration is a function of the economy. If we have a nasty recession, unemployment rises sharply and our country remains expensive (not to mention wet, grey and full of chavs) are people going to keep coming? I guess our political stability counts for a lot, as well as some of the training opportunities but what if you can't get a job or afford a roof over your head?

[oracle]

Marina makes a good point.

The life expectancy of todays youngsters is getting shorter as they have been overdoing the mcdonalds and developing type 2 diabetes and a myriad of other ailments associated with obesity.

and maybe there is a link to being horribly in debt,being overworked,and having less kids.

well lets face it if your overworked you just dont have the energy for a bit of nookie!...it doesnt explain europe though.they have less kids per couple than we do and 10% unemployment,should have plenty of time on their hands!

surely it would be a better idea for europe to take their fair share of immigrants,they need them more than we do.