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purplemonkey

Who's On The 'their Is' And Who's On The 'i Want There To Be'

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I'm definetly on the 'i want there to be' side, but becoming less convinced that 'their is' going to one. Every time I go out, I see people happly affording things, buying this and that, buying houses and still going out.

I just can't see where the late 80's to late 00's comaprison is.

Starting to thing the best thing to do is to find a place I want to retire to(in 25yrs) and start buying a house over there for the inevitable days. Cause i don't have a pension or a house, so i'm screwed in this place.

:unsure: contriversial - riot shields up! :unsure:

When people say house prices always go up, they are correct. inflation adjusting charts is all well and good but in the 70's you could buy for 15k, in the 80's it was 100k now its 200k, if you had waited from 1970 till now, would you be better off 'inflation adjusted' or not I think not. If you do believe in inflation adjustmed house prices isn't it better to secure that asset now at todays under inflated prices, then in 5 years when your wages go up to 120k a year, your 200k mortgage looks like nothing, whilst house prices spiral out of control upto and over 1mil.

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I'm definetly on the 'i want there to be' side, but becoming less convinced that 'their is' going to one. Every time I go out, I see people happly affording things, buying this and that, buying houses and still going out.

I just can't see where the late 80's to late 00's comaprison is.

Starting to thing the best thing to do is to find a place I want to retire to(in 25yrs) and start buying a house over there for the inevitable days. Cause i don't have a pension or a house, so i'm screwed in this place.

:unsure: contriversial - riot shields up! :unsure:

When people say house prices always go up, they are correct. inflation adjusting charts is all well and good but in the 70's you could buy for 15k, in the 80's it was 100k now its 200k, if you had waited from 1970 till now, would you be better off 'inflation adjusted' or not I think not. If you do believe in inflation adjustmed house prices isn't it better to secure that asset now at todays under inflated prices, then in 5 years when your wages go up to 120k a year, your 200k mortgage looks like nothing, whilst house prices spiral out of control upto and over 1mil.

You have some real concerns

Many on this forum, myself included, have more of a intellectual concern or more accurately a more general concern as it is not neccessarily effecting us directly or NOW.

I think I understand the situation very well and although I think a downward correction is vitally important, not only for people like yourself, but for the good of the whole society as well, it is not going to happen like a few more naive posters think, this is obvious.

The simple facts, that can not be denied by anyone sane, is; Money and finance will become dearer and more difficult to obtain. There is alot of demand in many areas which is increasing. So we have a senario to cause maximum stress.

As you have already worked out actual price falls are never as great as many claim but there were fairly dramatic actual falls in some areas in the early 1990s upto 20%ish.

There will be a better time to buy, that I am sure of, and it will depend on where it is and your likely financial exposure as much as anything as to when it is best for you to find a home. (please note I did not say invest as I am sure as speculation alone it would make a very poor financial investment for probably the rest of my life if not yours)

Demand will become the crucial factor and where demand falls off the most will be the areas of greatest falls and thus savings. All this could take some time to come about. My quess and it is a quess is that prices could be down upto 30% from todays actual prices in many areas.

Take your point about actual and inflation ajusted, if your buying as a home just consider the actual as you "ride" the inflation

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Nominal Falls in house prices are rare, but it has happened twice this century.

Houses have never, ever before trebled in seven years. This is the largest asset boom in history. What do you think happens next?

With wage inflation so low and watching events in America, I am convinced we will see big falls in the UK, but it's at least a year or so off.

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Guest d23
Nominal Falls in house prices are rare, but it has happened twice this century.

Houses have never, ever before trebled in seven years. This is the largest asset boom in history. What do you think happens next?

With wage inflation so low and watching events in America, I am convinced we will see big falls in the UK, but it's at least a year or so off.

i agree we're at least a year off any meaningful falls too; watch out tho as according to RB that viewpoint makes you an uber bull :rolleyes:

as for PG's comment I don't think current or forthcoming levels of HPI will make 'flipping' properties a viable proposition for a good while in the near future (btw who's cat is that in your signature PG?)

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Crash Start Date= Q1 2007 (or poss 2006)

Crash End Date_option_1 = 2012 (just in time for olympics ;) )

Crash End Date_option_2 = 2020 (it all goes japanese :o )

Q1 2007. B):D

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i agree we're at least a year off any meaningful falls too; watch out tho as according to RB that viewpoint makes you an uber bull :rolleyes:

as for PG's comment I don't think current or forthcoming levels of HPI will make 'flipping' properties a viable proposition for a good while in the near future (btw who's cat is that in your signature PG?)

Oops. I'll have to go to RB confession and repent!

I said one year at least until the big falls. I do expect sales volume to crash later this year though.

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As far as I can see, some places are dropping, other places are stagnating as there are few buyers and few motivated sellers, other places are still rising.

If the prices of city-center flats in some cities are falling through the floor while other places are rising, does that mean there is a crash, or not?

Edited by MarkG

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It's happening.

IRs are going up (and will continue to), prices are coming down (albeit only in some areas) and most importantly SENTIMENT IS CHANGING.

We are 'in it' it is definitly happening all around us. Its not like a stock market crash but ask yourself thsi question. If everyone who currently has their house on teh market now had to go to acution with it over the next month or so what do think they would really get for it?

I think 20% below asking would be a good guess at a market clearing price. If prices fell that much would newspapers not be saying CRASH? Its just it happens ever so slowly with housing - it took five years last time from peakto trough and another three years for market activity to really start to pick up again and prices only really started rising after that.

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