Rightmove +0.8 Monthly, 13.2 Yearly

[simon99]

its another grim set of figures for us bears.

[spline]

This is how the various indices look at the moment – updated to include Rightmove today.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I find this all hilarious.

the data is based on asking prices & from EA's.

I mean just look at the difference between the LR & Rightmove's stats (I think it's them at the top).

£60,000 difference. Says it all really.

go ask the window cleaner if your windows need cleaning.

edited - not directed at you spline, keep the data coming, it gives us all something to talk about.

Edited June 18, 2007 by grumpy-old-man

[kagiso]

Sorry, my Acrobat is screwed.

Can someone post the London figures.

Without seeing them, I'm willing to bet Newham is taking a pasting right now.

London borough figures below:

Jun-07 May-07 MoM Jun-06 YoY MoM YoY Borough

£1,422,597 £1,375,336 3.40% £823,973 72.70% 3.40% 72.70% Kensington & Chelsea

£861,469 £815,093 5.70% £593,262 45.20% 5.70% 45.20% City of Westminster

£667,630 £621,603 7.40% £452,710 47.50% 7.40% 47.50% Camden

£633,827 £636,872 -0.50% £489,428 29.50% -0.50% 29.50% Hammersmith & Fulham

£532,685 £512,712 3.90% £393,777 35.30% 3.90% 35.30% Richmond-upon-Thames

£510,248 £476,748 7.00% £380,549 34.10% 7.00% 34.10% Brent

£502,842 £489,832 2.70% £384,613 30.70% 2.70% 30.70% Kingston-upon-Thames

£500,193 £488,210 2.50% £403,558 23.90% 2.50% 23.90% Islington

£498,954 £492,605 1.30% £379,061 31.60% 1.30% 31.60% Wandsworth

£432,237 £435,505 -0.80% £356,569 21.20% -0.80% 21.20% Barnet

£430,098 £432,522 -0.60% £351,986 22.20% -0.60% 22.20% Hackney

£422,891 £427,895 -1.20% £325,084 30.10% -1.20% 30.10% Tower Hamlets

£414,738 £424,770 -2.40% £362,937 14.30% -2.40% 14.30% Hounslow

£393,470 £387,337 1.60% £305,562 28.80% 1.60% 28.80% Merton

£388,317 £395,030 -1.70% £289,560 34.10% -1.70% 34.10% Haringey

£380,993 £375,332 1.50% £316,627 20.30% 1.50% 20.30% Ealing

£380,631 £385,622 -1.30% £300,594 26.60% -1.30% 26.60% Lambeth

£358,813 £369,300 -2.80% £298,472 20.20% -2.80% 20.20% Southwark

£335,756 £332,648 0.90% £302,297 11.10% 0.90% 11.10% Sutton

£334,117 £336,488 -0.70% £301,270 10.90% -0.70% 10.90% Hillingdon

£319,651 £318,130 0.50% £277,337 15.30% 0.50% 15.30% Harrow

£317,987 £321,205 -1.00% £278,329 14.20% -1.00% 14.20% Bromley

£317,057 £319,947 -0.90% £269,050 17.80% -0.90% 17.80% Lewisham

£313,958 £315,309 -0.40% £269,352 16.60% -0.40% 16.60% Enfield

£294,198 £294,807 -0.20% £257,361 14.30% -0.20% 14.30% Waltham Forest

£288,434 £291,324 -1.00% £254,586 13.30% -1.00% 13.30% Redbridge

£280,773 £280,780 0.00% £241,468 16.30% 0.00% 16.30% Croydon

£259,796 £259,267 0.20% £217,072 19.70% 0.20% 19.70% Newham

£257,139 £258,045 -0.40% £232,976 10.40% -0.40% 10.40% Havering

£245,307 £245,374 0.00% £223,070 10.00% 0.00% 10.00% Greenwich

£227,550 £229,208 -0.70% £204,584 11.20% -0.70% 11.20% Barking & Dagenham

£219,003 £219,621 -0.30% £205,268 6.70% -0.30% 6.70% Bexley

These figures are very interesting, I played around with some graphs (unfortunately can't work out how to post them), and came to my own conclusions as follows.

If you plot latest prices (June 07) against YoY rise (using all points above), you get an almost perfect straight line correaltion between price and rise (R2=0.8457). So expensive areas have gone up a lot, poor areas have gone up least. Which confirms that the London mini boom of the last year has been driven by the richest people at the top of the ladder.

If you plot latest prices against MoM rise, then you get an odd shape with two fuzzy branches starting out at zero, one going up positive, one going down negative.

If you split the MoM into two graphs, one for the +ves and one for the -ves, then you get two straight lines, though the correlation is less good.

The positive straight line is largely confined to good / rich areas of London, and still shows that prices are going up in proportion to average house price.

BUT

The other graph shows a negative straight line, with the most expensive areas dropping the fastest. This group largely consists of what might be called 'nouveau riche', places like Barnet, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. That is to say places that the upper middle classes wouldn't normally touch with a barge-pole, but have been forced to consider due to very high prices in the genuinely rich areas.

I will repeat that again; in this group, the areas with the highest prices are the ones that are falling fastest.

We have passed the top, and London has started crashing.

London is toast.

The UK housing market is toast.

[thedebtisreal]

London borough figures below:

Jun-07 May-07 MoM Jun-06 YoY MoM YoY Borough

£1,422,597 £1,375,336 3.40% £823,973 72.70% 3.40% 72.70% Kensington & Chelsea

£861,469 £815,093 5.70% £593,262 45.20% 5.70% 45.20% City of Westminster

£667,630 £621,603 7.40% £452,710 47.50% 7.40% 47.50% Camden

£633,827 £636,872 -0.50% £489,428 29.50% -0.50% 29.50% Hammersmith & Fulham

£532,685 £512,712 3.90% £393,777 35.30% 3.90% 35.30% Richmond-upon-Thames

£510,248 £476,748 7.00% £380,549 34.10% 7.00% 34.10% Brent

£502,842 £489,832 2.70% £384,613 30.70% 2.70% 30.70% Kingston-upon-Thames

£500,193 £488,210 2.50% £403,558 23.90% 2.50% 23.90% Islington

£498,954 £492,605 1.30% £379,061 31.60% 1.30% 31.60% Wandsworth

£432,237 £435,505 -0.80% £356,569 21.20% -0.80% 21.20% Barnet

£430,098 £432,522 -0.60% £351,986 22.20% -0.60% 22.20% Hackney

£422,891 £427,895 -1.20% £325,084 30.10% -1.20% 30.10% Tower Hamlets

£414,738 £424,770 -2.40% £362,937 14.30% -2.40% 14.30% Hounslow

£393,470 £387,337 1.60% £305,562 28.80% 1.60% 28.80% Merton

£388,317 £395,030 -1.70% £289,560 34.10% -1.70% 34.10% Haringey

£380,993 £375,332 1.50% £316,627 20.30% 1.50% 20.30% Ealing

£380,631 £385,622 -1.30% £300,594 26.60% -1.30% 26.60% Lambeth

£358,813 £369,300 -2.80% £298,472 20.20% -2.80% 20.20% Southwark

£335,756 £332,648 0.90% £302,297 11.10% 0.90% 11.10% Sutton

£334,117 £336,488 -0.70% £301,270 10.90% -0.70% 10.90% Hillingdon

£319,651 £318,130 0.50% £277,337 15.30% 0.50% 15.30% Harrow

£317,987 £321,205 -1.00% £278,329 14.20% -1.00% 14.20% Bromley

£317,057 £319,947 -0.90% £269,050 17.80% -0.90% 17.80% Lewisham

£313,958 £315,309 -0.40% £269,352 16.60% -0.40% 16.60% Enfield

£294,198 £294,807 -0.20% £257,361 14.30% -0.20% 14.30% Waltham Forest

£288,434 £291,324 -1.00% £254,586 13.30% -1.00% 13.30% Redbridge

£280,773 £280,780 0.00% £241,468 16.30% 0.00% 16.30% Croydon

£259,796 £259,267 0.20% £217,072 19.70% 0.20% 19.70% Newham

£257,139 £258,045 -0.40% £232,976 10.40% -0.40% 10.40% Havering

£245,307 £245,374 0.00% £223,070 10.00% 0.00% 10.00% Greenwich

£227,550 £229,208 -0.70% £204,584 11.20% -0.70% 11.20% Barking & Dagenham

£219,003 £219,621 -0.30% £205,268 6.70% -0.30% 6.70% Bexley

These figures are very interesting, I played around with some graphs (unfortunately can't work out how to post them), and came to my own conclusions as follows.

If you plot latest prices (June 07) against YoY rise (using all points above), you get an almost perfect straight line correaltion between price and rise (R2=0.8457). So expensive areas have gone up a lot, poor areas have gone up least. Which confirms that the London mini boom of the last year has been driven by the richest people at the top of the ladder.

If you plot latest prices against MoM rise, then you get an odd shape with two fuzzy branches starting out at zero, one going up positive, one going down negative.

If you split the MoM into two graphs, one for the +ves and one for the -ves, then you get two straight lines, though the correlation is less good.

The positive straight line is largely confined to good / rich areas of London, and still shows that prices are going up in proportion to average house price.

BUT

The other graph shows a negative straight line, with the most expensive areas dropping the fastest. This group largely consists of what might be called 'nouveau riche', places like Barnet, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. That is to say places that the upper middle classes wouldn't normally touch with a barge-pole, but have been forced to consider due to very high prices in the genuinely rich areas.

I will repeat that again; in this group, the areas with the highest prices are the ones that are falling fastest.

We have passed the top, and London has started crashing.

London is toast.

The UK housing market is toast.

Cheers. Hammersmith and Fulham starting to fall. Now just down to 29.5% HPI!

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

London borough figures below:

Jun-07 May-07 MoM Jun-06 YoY MoM YoY Borough

£1,422,597 £1,375,336 3.40% £823,973 72.70% 3.40% 72.70% Kensington & Chelsea

£861,469 £815,093 5.70% £593,262 45.20% 5.70% 45.20% City of Westminster

£667,630 £621,603 7.40% £452,710 47.50% 7.40% 47.50% Camden

£633,827 £636,872 -0.50% £489,428 29.50% -0.50% 29.50% Hammersmith & Fulham

£532,685 £512,712 3.90% £393,777 35.30% 3.90% 35.30% Richmond-upon-Thames

£510,248 £476,748 7.00% £380,549 34.10% 7.00% 34.10% Brent

£502,842 £489,832 2.70% £384,613 30.70% 2.70% 30.70% Kingston-upon-Thames

£500,193 £488,210 2.50% £403,558 23.90% 2.50% 23.90% Islington

£498,954 £492,605 1.30% £379,061 31.60% 1.30% 31.60% Wandsworth

£432,237 £435,505 -0.80% £356,569 21.20% -0.80% 21.20% Barnet

£430,098 £432,522 -0.60% £351,986 22.20% -0.60% 22.20% Hackney

£422,891 £427,895 -1.20% £325,084 30.10% -1.20% 30.10% Tower Hamlets

£414,738 £424,770 -2.40% £362,937 14.30% -2.40% 14.30% Hounslow

£393,470 £387,337 1.60% £305,562 28.80% 1.60% 28.80% Merton

£388,317 £395,030 -1.70% £289,560 34.10% -1.70% 34.10% Haringey

£380,993 £375,332 1.50% £316,627 20.30% 1.50% 20.30% Ealing

£380,631 £385,622 -1.30% £300,594 26.60% -1.30% 26.60% Lambeth

£358,813 £369,300 -2.80% £298,472 20.20% -2.80% 20.20% Southwark

£335,756 £332,648 0.90% £302,297 11.10% 0.90% 11.10% Sutton

£334,117 £336,488 -0.70% £301,270 10.90% -0.70% 10.90% Hillingdon

£319,651 £318,130 0.50% £277,337 15.30% 0.50% 15.30% Harrow

£317,987 £321,205 -1.00% £278,329 14.20% -1.00% 14.20% Bromley

£317,057 £319,947 -0.90% £269,050 17.80% -0.90% 17.80% Lewisham

£313,958 £315,309 -0.40% £269,352 16.60% -0.40% 16.60% Enfield

£294,198 £294,807 -0.20% £257,361 14.30% -0.20% 14.30% Waltham Forest

£288,434 £291,324 -1.00% £254,586 13.30% -1.00% 13.30% Redbridge

£280,773 £280,780 0.00% £241,468 16.30% 0.00% 16.30% Croydon

£259,796 £259,267 0.20% £217,072 19.70% 0.20% 19.70% Newham

£257,139 £258,045 -0.40% £232,976 10.40% -0.40% 10.40% Havering

£245,307 £245,374 0.00% £223,070 10.00% 0.00% 10.00% Greenwich

£227,550 £229,208 -0.70% £204,584 11.20% -0.70% 11.20% Barking & Dagenham

£219,003 £219,621 -0.30% £205,268 6.70% -0.30% 6.70% Bexley

These figures are very interesting, I played around with some graphs (unfortunately can't work out how to post them), and came to my own conclusions as follows.

If you plot latest prices (June 07) against YoY rise (using all points above), you get an almost perfect straight line correaltion between price and rise (R2=0.8457). So expensive areas have gone up a lot, poor areas have gone up least. Which confirms that the London mini boom of the last year has been driven by the richest people at the top of the ladder.

If you plot latest prices against MoM rise, then you get an odd shape with two fuzzy branches starting out at zero, one going up positive, one going down negative.

If you split the MoM into two graphs, one for the +ves and one for the -ves, then you get two straight lines, though the correlation is less good.

The positive straight line is largely confined to good / rich areas of London, and still shows that prices are going up in proportion to average house price.

BUT

The other graph shows a negative straight line, with the most expensive areas dropping the fastest. This group largely consists of what might be called 'nouveau riche', places like Barnet, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. That is to say places that the upper middle classes wouldn't normally touch with a barge-pole, but have been forced to consider due to very high prices in the genuinely rich areas.

I will repeat that again; in this group, the areas with the highest prices are the ones that are falling fastest.

We have passed the top, and London has started crashing.

London is toast.

The UK housing market is toast.

ah kagiso,

I was just about to post the very same thing, but you got there first.

[JB1981]

At the moment, in my area (Sutton), me and my fiance took out a £134k 5-year fixed repayment mortgage (at 4.99%) in October 2005 on a 2-bed flat, bought for £141k. My payments will not rise for another 3 years 4 months, which is enough time for me to pay off a sizeable chunk of my £130k mortgage remaining, so when it comes to remortgaging, even a sizeable rate rise will probably mean I just pay the same amount each month as before.

Also, I have added value (i.e. added in Central Heating, New Kitchen and Bathroom, total cost £8k), and my flat is now worth £185k, £44k more than I paid for it. It would therefore take a reduction of at least 30% before we are put into negative equity.

By the way, we were extremely sensible when we purchased our flat. At the moment, after Bills are paid etc. are paid, we have a spare £2,000.00 left to spend how we see fit. Instead , we spend about £500.00, and save the rest towards when we move to get a house.

I would actually prefer a crash of around 30%. This way, in October 2010, using our considerable savings, we would be able to buy a nice house that presently costs around £300k for around £210k, meaning a much smaller mortgage, one which we can repay much more quickly when the rates are lowered again in due course.

I am one housebuyer actually wanting a crash so I can make my next move up the ladder much more cheaply!

[The Matador]

I do not hope for a crash

I am one housebuyer actually wanting a crash

Ole!

[bomberbrown]

Can we all make this as wide known as possible? I have been posting on the London Evening Standard forums for over 5 years now and often they quote people's posts in the paper edition, here's my bit.

http://ichat.thisislondon.co.uk/london/thr...;message=935072

[Realistbear]

west midlands is on fire RB; 5.8% in a single month!

I am surprised its down that much in a month. A year maybe. The latest for my area is that the Jaguar-LR news has depressed an already shaky market. The doom and gloom chat is growing and it really is tragic that another 9000 manufacturing jobs may go soon as Ford seem to be finding it difficult to offload a billion $ loss making business.

Edited June 18, 2007 by Realistbear

[Warwick-Watcher]

Cheers. Hammersmith and Fulham starting to fall. Now just down to 29.5% HPI!

It occurred to me last night that eventually we're bound to get zero or negative HPI as eventually every single part of the UK will be very expensive (NI and Scotland are catching up now). Eventually even in London foreign investors will refuse to pay ever higher prices for the dubious privilege of living in Kensington and so price rises will tail off. After about4 quarters of this we'll see at best price stagnation but more likely negative HPI as some areas are already falling.

It's all about the averages here. HPI is being sustained by properties like the run down country estate in Surrey that recently sold for GBP42m. What was it sold for before that? One property at 42m is going to outweigh a lot of price falls in cr*ppy parts of the UK.

[Willy Weasel]

I am surprised its down that much in a month. A year maybe. The latest for my area is that the Jaguar-LR news has depressed an already shaky market. The doom and gloom chat is growing and it really is tragic that another 9000 manufacturing jobs may go soon as Ford seem to be finding it difficult to offload a billion $ loss making business.

Unbelievably, RB, Rightmove is reporting a monthly increase of 5.8%

BTW, the billion $ loss making business is the one Ford is keeping

[kagiso]

It occurred to me last night that eventually we're bound to get zero or negative HPI as eventually every single part of the UK will be very expensive (NI and Scotland are catching up now). Eventually even in London foreign investors will refuse to pay ever higher prices for the dubious privilege of living in Kensington and so price rises will tail off. After about4 quarters of this we'll see at best price stagnation but more likely negative HPI as some areas are already falling.

It's all about the averages here. HPI is being sustained by properties like the run down country estate in Surrey that recently sold for GBP42m. What was it sold for before that? One property at 42m is going to outweigh a lot of price falls in cr*ppy parts of the UK.

Indeed, but it will happen a lot faster than that. By definition if the peak is symmetrical then the peak will have occured six months before the YoY figures go negative.

But I don't think that the peak will be symmetrical. Recent LR and FT figures show half the country already in real falls. It is only the very large increases in London and NI that have managed to cancel these falls out so far.

From the anecdotal evidence, the falls in the North and Midlands are accelerating. So even if London and NI were just to flatten out we would start to see MoM falls very quickly.

However, read the NI thread, and again anecdotal evidence suggests that NI has turned, and is going to go down as fast as it went up.

This Rightmove data shows that only high end London is still going up, and that major parts are sliding. To me it indicates that the upper middle classes; lawyers, doctors, teachers, etc, have thrown in the towel and joined the FTBs priced out of the market. The areas that are still going up demonstrate that if you haven't got a city bonus, you can't afford a house in London.

So mathematically I see it as a long low North and Midlands peak that is already slowly going down, with a superposition of two much narrower mini-booms; in London & NI. Up until now, the two mini-booms have had the effect of hiding the drops in TN&M. But as the two mini-booms turn downwards, the combined effect is going to be going off a cliff edge after a plateau.

I think people are going to be very surprised how quickly and steeply this kicks in.

[thedebtisreal]

Unbelievably, RB, Rightmove is reporting a monthly increase of 5.8%

BTW, the billion $ loss making business is the one Ford is keeping

I knew! You've all been blaming London for masking the falls in the regions.

It's the other way around, you cheeky lot.

[jackalope]

Only 12 days to go then.

Don't mock. RB has successfully predicted 6 out of the last 0 market peaks.

Edited June 19, 2007 by jackalope

[Disillusioned]

I played around with some graphs (unfortunately can't work out how to post them)

Thanks kagiso. You seem pretty good at working with the figures. Any change you can try again and put your graphs on the thread. The simplest way would probably be to do a 'print screen' when you look at the graph and then post the image on this thread.

Ta

[colonel faulkner]

Can someone C&P the regional figures pls.......I get a corrupt file error. I can't believe West Mids is + 6%!!!!!

[Guest d23]

Can someone C&P the regional figures pls.......I get a corrupt file error. I can't believe West Mids is + 6%!!!!!

not sure how to do that with a PDF sorry; but i can reassure you that me and tuffers aren't lying(!!)

what relationship to reality asking price indices from an EA have is another matter; LR figures are amongst the only figures worth checking imo and they showed W Midlands as flat MoM and 6.3 YoY

[@contradevian]

not sure how to do that with a PDF sorry; but i can reassure you that me and tuffers aren't lying(!!)

what relationship to reality asking price indices from an EA have is another matter; LR figures are amongst the only figures worth checking imo and they showed W Midlands as flat MoM and 6.3 YoY

I've just been on propertysnake.co.uk and there are massive drop in asking prices for London post codes W14 (west kensington and holland park) W4 and SW5 (earls court/warwick road).

(edited for wrong URL).

Edited June 18, 2007 by rover2000

[kagiso]

Thanks kagiso. You seem pretty good at working with the figures. Any change you can try again and put your graphs on the thread. The simplest way would probably be to do a 'print screen' when you look at the graph and then post the image on this thread.

Ta

Hmm, upload seems to be working now.

OK first two graphs. The first shows the correlation between Jun 07 prices and YoY increases between Jun 06 and Jun 07. Clearly the correlation is very strong, which I think strongly supports the view that it is city bonuses and foreign investors that have been driving the London mini-boom of the last year. 'Ordinary' people just haven't been buying.

The second graph shows Jun 07 prices against the MoM change from May 07 to June 07. Clearly there is no straight line here.

(Both graphs use all data points, ie. all boroughs).

I would be happy to state that from now on things should be taken with a pinch of salt. The Rightmove dataset has limitations much discussed elsewhere, the interpretation that follows is my own.

So, then I split the data into two sets '+ve' and '-ve'. The two boroughs with zero growth are included in both data sets.

'+ve' group is shown below. And note that I removed one data point; Kensington & Chelsea, as it appeared to be an outlier from the main group.

Correlation is R2=0.6796 which is pretty good, and I am comfortable that this shows a good correlation between house price and MoM increase for this group of boroughs.

'-ve' group is shown below.

A lot dodgier here, I excluded both Hammersmith & Fulham and Southwark as outliers. The data set is smaller and the correlation is clearly much poorer.

Having said that I think it makes my point reasonably strongly, you have three sets of boroughs in London at the moment.

Almost all the poorer areas; below £350k, have had relatively small movements, they are neither going up or down.

Almost all the richer areas; above £350k, have had larger movements, either positive or negative, and the richer the borough the larger the movement.

The ones going up are generally old money, the ones going down are arriviste.

I think that this is because the upper middle classes have withdrawn from the market, are no longer willing to consider buying ex-LA property in Bermondsey for silly money, have decided to stay where they are for the summer, go off on holiday, and see what things look like in the autumn. The only people left buying are the ones who can buy whatever they want, so if they have to spend an extra £200k for Chelsea rather than Southwark, they are doing.

I would predict that next month you will see the same shapes, but that some borderline areas such as Camden, Wandsworth and Brent will have been demoted from the +ve to the -ve camp.

I think that this is curtains for the London housing market because, having been priced out of the market, the upper middle classes won't re-enter, or be able to re-enter until prices have dropped significantly. But if prices are dropping significantly people won't buy, because, prices are dropping significantly. And nobody, but nobody buys an asset whose value is declining.

And if London even stalls, with the provinces already dropping, YoY figures will go negative very quickly.

A lot of extrapolation on one dodgy data set, but I think it chimes with other stats we have seen recently, and anecdotal evidence.

[Ash4781]

This is how the various indices look at the moment – updated to include Rightmove today.

Do you do anything with principal components analysis ?