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DoctorJ

Q3 2007

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Things are really hotting up in HPC land and I'm starting to really look forward to Q3 2007. Its beginning to look like this is when the proverbial brown stuff will hit the fan...and I've got at least 3 pints at christmas riding on it :rolleyes:

Q1 2007, as far as I can remember, was largely uneventful in my area (Herts). Although many areas looked as if they were at market peak. Some bears will say that the HPI party ended here.

Q2 2007 has seen an exponential rise in the amount of bear food in the media- and this bear loves honey. Its been a real feast.

Q3 2007. As soon as we go into July-August I'm beginning to feel like we could see come sparks flying. Hikes in interest rate rises will begin to really bite, with more on the way, especially when fixed rates reset. The levels of debt in the UK are going to make the end of 2007 (and beyond) very painful.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=49398

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=49324

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=49074

add increased cost of living and credit tightening into the equation and things aren't looking rosy as we go into the next quarter.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=49382

With HPC lapping at our shores from Ireland, Spain and US - our island feels like it is under attack.

Late 2006 I predicted in a couple of threads that Q4 2007 would be the start of GC2. Who knows - but Q3 is certainly going to be fun. As we move into July 2007, The Great Big Ball Buster is sitting at the top of the track looking down on the rest of the Fairground. Belt up kids, its gonna be a wild ride!

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Guest wrongmove
....

Late 2006 I predicted in a couple of threads that Q4 2007 would be the start of GC2.

....

You didn't join until 2007. :unsure:

Anyway, the crash started in Q1, or was it Q2......

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You didn't join until 2007. :unsure:

Anyway, the crash started in Q1, or was it Q2......

it was very late 2006

Edited by DoctorJ

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Mate, been saying this since about this time last year. In fact, I set up a calendar appointment with my more bullish colleagues to "review the housing market" in October of this year... I almost wish I hadn't changed jobs in the meantime since by then things should really be going down the toilet! Oh well, there's always e-mail ;-)

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Mate, been saying this since about this time last year. In fact, I set up a calendar appointment with my more bullish colleagues to "review the housing market" in October of this year... I almost wish I hadn't changed jobs in the meantime since by then things should really be going down the toilet! Oh well, there's always e-mail ;-)

I'll meet up with some old school buddies at christmas and I have a pint bet with each of them that HPC will have gathered momentum by then. As I have said before (very late 2006 ;) ) I think that Q4 will be HPC time.

but by the looks of things Q3 is going to be a real bear feast. :rolleyes:

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Gotta laugh, Why is it always the next quarter and this keeps being repeated since 2004.

There is alot of bear food out there and if I had just returned from a planet far far away to this kind of media speculation I would think things are ready to tip, However if I was to look back over the past 2-3 years I could be saying the same thing.

I posted on here recently that even the so called bullish BBC have crash reports going back the last 3 years all stating that a crash was on the way, And were are we now some 3 years on, Well according to the LR we are still getting rising prices although on a lesser scale they are still rising.

There may be a lag in the data coming through but there is alot riding on prices falling for those who have put off and rented since 2003.

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Gotta laugh, Why is it always the next quarter and this keeps being repeated since 2004.

There is alot of bear food out there and if I had just returned from a planet far far away to this kind of media speculation I would think things are ready to tip, However if I was to look back over the past 2-3 years I could be saying the same thing.

I posted on here recently that even the so called bullish BBC have crash reports going back the last 3 years all stating that a crash was on the way, And were are we now some 3 years on, Well according to the LR we are still getting rising prices although on a lesser scale they are still rising.

There may be a lag in the data coming through but there is alot riding on prices falling for those who have put off and rented since 2003.

I agree that bearish news has been about for a while - but lately there seems to have been a huge increase. The beeb's gone bear - who'd have thought it :o:rolleyes:

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Gotta laugh, Why is it always the next quarter and this keeps being repeated since 2004.

There is alot of bear food out there and if I had just returned from a planet far far away to this kind of media speculation I would think things are ready to tip, However if I was to look back over the past 2-3 years I could be saying the same thing.

I posted on here recently that even the so called bullish BBC have crash reports going back the last 3 years all stating that a crash was on the way, And were are we now some 3 years on, Well according to the LR we are still getting rising prices although on a lesser scale they are still rising.

There may be a lag in the data coming through but there is alot riding on prices falling for those who have put off and rented since 2003.

The trouble is that people concentrate on the headline "average price" figures. Many areas of the UK and many property types (e.g. apartments) simply haven't changed in price over the last 2-3 years. This is outweighed by ridiculous price rises in areas like NI and Scotland and the international property market that is London.

Exapmple - my old apartment is now on sale for less than I paid for it in 2002 in Leamington.

Edited by Warwick-Watcher

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The trouble is that people concentrate on the headline "average price" figures. Many areas of the UK and many property types (e.g. apartments) simply haven't changed in price over the last 2-3 years. This is outweighed by ridiculous price rises in areas like NI and Scotland and the international property market that is London.

Exapmple - my old apartment is now on sale for less than I paid for it in 2002 in Leamington.

I was referring to the LR monthly report that breaks down price movement throughout the uk, Not the overall average.

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with HINDSIGHT, it will be obvious even to those of the meanest intellect (Clitoris Van Dong, D23, nohpc etc) that the crash begain

Q107

Meanwhile... back on planet earth....

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2007.pdf

“House prices increased by 0.5% in May, down from 0.9% in April. However, the headline annual

rate remained stubbornly in double-digits, largely due to slower house price inflation at this time last

year. House prices increased by 10.3% during the year, bringing the price of a typical house to

£181,584, almost £17,000 higher than at the same time last year.

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Meanwhile... back on planet earth....
House prices increased by 10.3% during the year, bringing the price of a typical house to

£181,584, almost £17,000 higher than at the same time last year.

Embrace, planet earth, we're heading towards an average houseprice of one gazillion!! Everyone will stay in his house,

earning 20 trillion a year by just doing nothing! No need to work for an average wage of 22,000! Yippeeeh!

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Embrace, planet earth, we're heading towards an average houseprice of one gazillion!! Everyone will stay in his house,

earning 20 trillion a year by just doing nothing! No need to work for an average wage of 22,000! Yippeeeh!

******crackle....*** " Klingon Spacecruiser1 to Spacecruiser2... Alert! Alert!..."

".. worker earthlings finally comprehend fiat currency and inflation....." ****crackle...****

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OK. Lets just say for a minute that the HPC starts/picks up moment in Q3.

Anyone care to take a bet on what gets MOST of the blame?

Will it be:

1) Rising interest rates.

2) Home information packs.

3) The Daily Mail.

4) The Government for not building enough/building too many.

5) Mortgage lenders.

6) Those darned illegoes.

Or will some brave soul speak up and admit that they just paid too much for their house but they'd rather blame someone else anyway?

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OK. Lets just say for a minute that the HPC starts/picks up moment in Q3.

Anyone care to take a bet on what gets MOST of the blame?

Will it be:

1) Rising interest rates.

2) Home information packs.

3) The Daily Mail.

4) The Government for not building enough/building too many.

5) Mortgage lenders.

6) Those darned illegoes.

Or will some brave soul speak up and admit that they just paid too much for their house but they'd rather blame someone else anyway?

i think they will try and blame the 'world market conditions' for the coming recession and crash - 'we couldn't do anyfing about it gov', 'out of our control' - and a lot of people might even believe them - cos they are idiots.

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