Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
killerbee

House Prices 'to Fall'

Recommended Posts

Hi all,

As I connected to the internet just now I was greeted by the Headline..... House prices 'to fall' on the Orange opening page.

I believe it is attention grabbing headlines like this that are going to be the talk around the dinner table in future. The message is blunt and will be like an arrow of fear that will strike at the heart of House price inflation...

HPI RIP

Killerbee

Edited by killerbee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi all,

As I connected to the internet just now I was greeted by the Headline..... House prices 'to fall' on the Orange opening page.

I believe it is attention grabbing headlines like this that are going to be the talk around the dinner table in future. The message is blunt and will be like an arrow of fear that will strike at the heart of House price inflation...

HPI RIP

Killerbee

Can you please phone the land registry and ask them to stop recording details of people that buy homes in the UK? Its this stuff that gets in the way of the prophesies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi all,

As I connected to the internet just now I was greeted by the Headline..... House prices 'to fall' on the Orange opening page.

I believe it is attention grabbing headlines like this that are going to be the talk around the dinner table in future. The message is blunt and will be like an arrow of fear that will strike at the heart of House price inflation...

HPI RIP

Killerbee

There is more bearish news than I recall before the last crash possibly back then it was Tory dominated and the Tories were in power. Driving through the North West, Midlands I have never seen so many For Sale signs up and hardly any Sold (with subject To Contract in small print) . Property developers round the country are having problems shifting their properties on the latest phase. People completing their contracts Dec/Jan this year were largely speculators promised quite high yields or flippers. These people are now competing with the developers in selling their properties.

Visit any new developments now and you are treated like royalty, of course watch out for the old scarcity sales trick. Having looked at a few places for fun I have been told each time by the EA someone else has put a contract in you better act quick. Months later each one is still For Sale.

There doesn't need to be a crash to get a good bargain now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[

There doesn't need to be a crash to get a good bargain now.

To get a bargain now I think you'd be wanting about 30-40% off the asking price, therefore the price of that property for all intents and purposes would be deemed to have crashed.

killerbee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[

There doesn't need to be a crash to get a good bargain now.

To get a bargain now I think you'd be wanting about 30-40% off the asking price, therefore the price of that property for all intents and purposes would be deemed to have crashed.

killerbee

Mrs 29929 and I considering putting in 60% offers on houses. Worth trying. I reckon some sellers are aware of the 'falling knife' concept.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can you please phone the land registry and ask them to stop recording details of people that buy homes in the UK? Its this stuff that gets in the way of the prophesies.

why, dickless? Over half the regions posted LOSSES or FLAT last qtr.

It's only london and the loonies in belfast propping it up now. How much longer do you thik that can continue?

Hint - if you want to see what the next year is like, have a look at America, Spain, France, Aus, you name it, dickweed. Now stop posting pathitic 'drive by troll' crap and get back to your homework.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Visit any new developments now and you are treated like royalty, of course watch out for the old scarcity sales trick. Having looked at a few places for fun I have been told each time by the EA someone else has put a contract in you better act quick. Months later each one is still For Sale.

There doesn't need to be a crash to get a good bargain now.

But conversly where I live the new development by me has sold out before its completed, a house over the road from me sold in 4 days. etc. Different areas have always enjoy different fortunes. Infact where I live was very stagnant 2005/6 and I bought a place there for not much more that it had sold for in 2000. The point Id make is that places will always go up and down independently of the headline figures. I think some people may be dissapointed when attractive in demand areas dont drop massively, I feel pretty comfortable suggesting that I aint ever gonna afford a Mayfair penthouse lol.

why, dickless? Over half the regions posted LOSSES or FLAT last qtr.

It's only london and the loonies in belfast propping it up now. How much longer do you thik that can continue?

Hint - if you want to see what the next year is like, have a look at America, Spain, France, Aus, you name it, dickweed. Now stop posting pathitic 'drive by troll' crap and get back to your homework.

Homework -lol - dude, are you an adult? Lets just say it doesnt come across...!

I think my response to that is lets wait and see. People have been making the same statements on this site since 2003, I'll believe it when I see it. I hope you are right because Im no fan of HPI, but sadly its hard to take any post with the word "dickweed" in it seriously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish people would stop presenting the argument "What goes up must come down" as some sort of scientific theory.

This article does it. Even Merren SW did it on that TV program recently. Of all the sound economic arguments she could have presented, her opening line to the panel was "Have you heard the saying, What goes up must come down?".

I would like to point out:

My age goes up, it does not go down.

The Voyager space probe went up. That didn't go down.

The CFC's I used to squirt my armpits with go up. They dont come down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wish people would stop presenting the argument "What goes up must come down" as some sort of scientific theory.

This article does it. Even Merren SW did it on that TV program recently. Of all the sound economic arguments she could have presented, her opening line to the panel was "Have you heard the saying, What goes up must come down?".

I would like to point out:

My age goes up, it does not go down.

The Voyager space probe went up. That didn't go down.

The CFC's I used to squirt my armpits with go up. They dont come down.

I was blowing bubbles in the garden for my boys last weekend. Without fail they rose inexorably and then burst.

Scientific proof that bubbles in particular never rise then fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hint - if you want to see what the next year is like, have a look at America, Spain, France, Aus, you name it, dickweed. Now stop posting pathitic 'drive by troll' crap and get back to your homework.

Not sure about the other countries on your list but Australian house prices increased by 8% for the year to March 2007 according to the ABS. Is that what you're predicting for the next 12 months in the UK?

I bought a flat in Putney, London about 7 months ago and had it valued earlier this week. It has gone up by 39% in that period. The estate agent was gagging to list it for us. The flat next to ours sold last month after being on the market for only 5 days.

I'm now moving to Australia and wondering whether to sell up here or hold on and rent it out.

I came to this site looking for some negative sentiment but didn't find any on the front page. Quite a change from 12 months ago. All the professional opinions are positive.

Also, if I look at the graph showing previous 'crashes' I notice that they were all gradual declines lasting several years - not at all like an overnight collapse one might expect from a stock market crash.

Think I'll just hold on and keep an eye on the market. If I see prices starting to dip, then I can get out then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not sure about the other countries on your list but Australian house prices increased by 8% for the year to March 2007 according to the ABS.

The other countries listed are dropping.

Think I'll just hold on and keep an eye on the market. If I see prices starting to dip, then I can get out then.

When you see the prices dipping it will be too late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wish people would stop presenting the argument "What goes up must come down" as some sort of scientific theory.

This article does it. Even Merren SW did it on that TV program recently. Of all the sound economic arguments she could have presented, her opening line to the panel was "Have you heard the saying, What goes up must come down?".

I would like to point out:

My age goes up, it does not go down.

The Voyager space probe went up. That didn't go down.

The CFC's I used to squirt my armpits with go up. They dont come down.

"What goes up must come down" is a truism: so called because it's mostly true. (Those counterexamples you gave are specious, of course, so I'll assume they were tongue-in-cheek :) ).

Imagine - it's not too hard - that wages grow at 2% per year but the price of housing grows at 8% per year. It's obvious that if you did that for 100 years, housing would wind up >300 times more expensive relative to wages than it was at the start. That would yield a very very different society from the one we live in today. I think everyone would agree that it's an extremely unlikely outcome. Therefore this wage/housing growth differential is unsustainable.

But, now, how unsustainable is it? In the very long term, wages and housing costs must grow at near-identical rates, or housing will either become infinitely expensive or infinitely cheap. But in the short term, growth differentials do happen, be it because of supply, demand, market regulation, speculative mania, whatever. But the longer it goes on for, the more people will realise that it is not sustainable.

Some people would say house prices of 3x average salary are unsustainable. Some would say 5x, some might put the ceiling as high as say 8x ot 10x. The distribution of opinions will change over time. But there will always come a point where the majority of people believe the trend cannot continue. And since it's people who are ultimately responsible for the trend, it must and will come to an end.

So, instead of "what goes up must come down", how about:

"What goes up must eventually stop going up", or

"What goes up must eventually come down relative to everything else", or

"To maintain a stable society, nothing can go up without eventually coming back down"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not sure about the other countries on your list but Australian house prices increased by 8% for the year to March 2007 according to the ABS. Is that what you're predicting for the next 12 months in the UK?

I bought a flat in Putney, London about 7 months ago and had it valued earlier this week. It has gone up by 39% in that period. The estate agent was gagging to list it for us. The flat next to ours sold last month after being on the market for only 5 days.

I'm now moving to Australia and wondering whether to sell up here or hold on and rent it out.

I came to this site looking for some negative sentiment but didn't find any on the front page. Quite a change from 12 months ago. All the professional opinions are positive.

Also, if I look at the graph showing previous 'crashes' I notice that they were all gradual declines lasting several years - not at all like an overnight collapse one might expect from a stock market crash.

Think I'll just hold on and keep an eye on the market. If I see prices starting to dip, then I can get out then.

Decisions decisions

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not sure about the other countries on your list but Australian house prices increased by 8% for the year to March 2007 according to the ABS. Is that what you're predicting for the next 12 months in the UK?

I bought a flat in Putney, London about 7 months ago and had it valued earlier this week. It has gone up by 39% in that period. The estate agent was gagging to list it for us. The flat next to ours sold last month after being on the market for only 5 days.

I'm now moving to Australia and wondering whether to sell up here or hold on and rent it out.

I came to this site looking for some negative sentiment but didn't find any on the front page. Quite a change from 12 months ago. All the professional opinions are positive.

Also, if I look at the graph showing previous 'crashes' I notice that they were all gradual declines lasting several years - not at all like an overnight collapse one might expect from a stock market crash.

Think I'll just hold on and keep an eye on the market. If I see prices starting to dip, then I can get out then.

:lol:

Yes, people in Ireland thought the same a year ago. :lol:

You're right that a crash won't happen overnight - it will be a long, slow, agonising process.

Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
why, dickless? Over half the regions posted LOSSES or FLAT last qtr.

It's only london and the loonies in belfast propping it up now. How much longer do you thik that can continue?

Hint - if you want to see what the next year is like, have a look at America, Spain, France, Aus, you name it, dickweed. Now stop posting pathitic 'drive by troll' crap and get back to your homework.

Ha ha. A well rounded reasoned argument. Now shut up and pay your rent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi all,

As I connected to the internet just now I was greeted by the Headline..... House prices 'to fall' on the Orange opening page.

I believe it is attention grabbing headlines like this that are going to be the talk around the dinner table in future. The message is blunt and will be like an arrow of fear that will strike at the heart of House price inflation...

HPI RIP

Killerbee

Largest nominal average house price drop in history £11k. Bears keep saying it isn't different this time. Why do you think it is?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Largest nominal average house price drop in history £11k. Bears keep saying it isn't different this time. Why do you think it is?

Gosh, somebody change the record please!

At the very least, you could quote a slightly more meaningful statistic like "the nominal average house price drop in the last crash was 13%". Then people can do the math at today's prices and determine that your £11k is equivalent to £26k now.

£26k is a lot of money to lose for most people, even those who aren't smart enough to understand inflation adjustment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mrs 29929 and I considering putting in 60% offers on houses. Worth trying. I reckon some sellers are aware of the 'falling knife' concept.

Well, best of luck, but I fear you may be back surfing Rightmove very quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"What goes up must come down" is a truism: so called because it's mostly true. (Those counterexamples you gave are specious, of course, so I'll assume they were tongue-in-cheek :) ).

Imagine - it's not too hard - that wages grow at 2% per year but the price of housing grows at 8% per year. It's obvious that if you did that for 100 years, housing would wind up >300 times more expensive relative to wages than it was at the start. That would yield a very very different society from the one we live in today. I think everyone would agree that it's an extremely unlikely outcome. Therefore this wage/housing growth differential is unsustainable.

But, now, how unsustainable is it? In the very long term, wages and housing costs must grow at near-identical rates, or housing will either become infinitely expensive or infinitely cheap. But in the short term, growth differentials do happen, be it because of supply, demand, market regulation, speculative mania, whatever. But the longer it goes on for, the more people will realise that it is not sustainable.

Some people would say house prices of 3x average salary are unsustainable. Some would say 5x, some might put the ceiling as high as say 8x ot 10x. The distribution of opinions will change over time. But there will always come a point where the majority of people believe the trend cannot continue. And since it's people who are ultimately responsible for the trend, it must and will come to an end.

So, instead of "what goes up must come down", how about:

"What goes up must eventually stop going up", or

"What goes up must eventually come down relative to everything else", or

"To maintain a stable society, nothing can go up without eventually coming back down"?

Very well put old chap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But conversly where I live the new development by me has sold out before its completed, a house over the road from me sold in 4 days. etc. Different areas have always enjoy different fortunes. Infact where I live was very stagnant 2005/6 and I bought a place there for not much more that it had sold for in 2000. The point Id make is that places will always go up and down independently of the headline figures. I think some people may be dissapointed when attractive in demand areas dont drop massively, I feel pretty comfortable suggesting that I aint ever gonna afford a Mayfair penthouse lol.

Homework -lol - dude, are you an adult? Lets just say it doesnt come across...!

I think my response to that is lets wait and see. People have been making the same statements on this site since 2003, I'll believe it when I see it. I hope you are right because Im no fan of HPI, but sadly its hard to take any post with the word "dickweed" in it seriously.

We had a large build of appartments started near us three years ago, whithin two weeks of starting a big sign went up all sold, YET two years after completion half are still empty and up for sale at a reduced price. Why spend thousands of pounds making a big sign saying all sold. Panic tactic thier doing it all the time in all different ways all over the country.

Panic buying helped increase HIP, now panic selling will help to lower prices as people panic sell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gosh, somebody change the record please!

At the very least, you could quote a slightly more meaningful statistic like "the nominal average house price drop in the last crash was 13%". Then people can do the math at today's prices and determine that your £11k is equivalent to £26k now.

£26k is a lot of money to lose for most people, even those who aren't smart enough to understand inflation adjustment.

If you said to anyone on this Florida residential estate in 2006, if you look back in history price drops happen slowly and never drop by this much just watch this. Also it wasn't appartments nor over BTL subscribed. The drops even shocked me a full hardened bear I would have expected this to take place over a couple of years with possibly 3 % more increase in interest rates and higher unemployment.

Watch if you havn't already. I think its totally hilarious what rigt did they have to sell at that price when we bought at this price...don't you love capitalism.

http://www.winknews.com/news/local/7896352...oney.com/RENEWS

The $300k property that I bought back in Dec 2006 is now worth $145k.

Also in London prices in some areas dropped by half 100k to 50 K last time around. Appartments are usually hit the hardest asone get repossessed it brings the rest of the prices right down. We have nethouseprices.co.uk before it was word and mouth.

Now the US is 25 % overvalued and UK is 50 % overvalued I believe anything can happen .

Coming to place near you soon.

Edited by joey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 355 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.