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strbear

First-time Buyers Have Never Had It So Bad

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oh well, i'd better buy then....

<_<

ffs, people taking on 50 years worth of debt based on media reports like this deserve everything they get...

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House-price crashes are rare in Britain and have never occurred in the absence of recession.

Bear: I predict a house-price crash.

Bull: Don't be silly, they are rare in Britain.

Bear: Well, they have happened before, then, and in similar circumstances. I predict a house-price crash.

Bull: Don't be silly, they have never occurred in the absence of recession.

Bear: Well, OK, I predict a house-price crash and a recession.

Bull: ...

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Guest casaloco
Bear: I predict a house-price crash.

Bull: Don't be silly, they are rare in Britain.

Bear: Well, they have happened before, then, and in similar circumstances. I predict a house-price crash.

Bull: Don't be silly, they have never occurred in the absence of recession.

Bear: Well, OK, I predict a house-price crash and a recession.

Bull: ...

In this case the house price crash will CAUSE the recession. Well that and all the debts. When house prices drop, people have nothing to borrow against to fund current spending.

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Where do they get this 19% of income from.

For someone on 28.5k, 19% of take home pay would be £3287. At interest rates of 6.27% (which was the average APR in June 2006 according to Credit Action) would mean the mortgage amount would be £52,430

Yet we know the average mortgage taken out is well above £100k..! (Close to £150k).

I think this is just a shed load of spin!

Edited by Jason

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Where do they get this 19% of income from.

For someone on 28.5k, 19% of take home pay would be £3287. At interest rates of 6.27% (which was the average APR in June 2006 according to Credit Action) would mean the mortgage amount would be £52,430

Yet we know the average mortgage taken out is well above £100k..! (Close to £150k).

I think this is just a shed load of spin!

it is spin Jason, it refers to interest on the loan only, very nasty trick. <_<

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Just when I thought the Times was all bearish they go and do this!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1920740.ece

I've noticed this a couple of times also. Very bearish articles about affordability, rising interest rates, almost total absence of first time buyers and miniscule rental yeilds that then end with the conclusion that "there won't be a crash".

Why can't they follow their arguments through to the conclusion?

It's like the met office before the 1988 (?) hurricane; the computer models said "there's a hurricane coming" and the forecasters said "don't be silly, we don't get hurricanes in this country".

It seems to me that having spent 5 years trying to explain HPI as a function of demographics & supply they can't cope with the concept that there is something else involved as well (ie. speculation).

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