Northern Ireland For Sale Inventory Goes Through The Roof!

[tara747]

and about 4,000 at the beginning of the year.

I wasn't keeping track at that stage! So it's almost trebled in six months. Same as the Republic between August and March.

Wow - yeah you guys are incredibly lucky.

Its also a big relief to see two people who have their heads screwed on - I know a few couples the same age as myself (23) who have bought houses in the last year, overstretching themselves massively and they are all crapping themselves because a couple of more IR rises and they won't be able to afford the repayments.

Is it really worth living your life like that to own a house? (sorry, to pay back a massive loan so you will own a house in 25 years).

If I were you guys, I'd stay in that place for as long as the LL allows me; it's the best place in Belfast to live IMO, and what with it being unbelievably cheap and you both being on good salaries, you no doubt have loads of money to do whatever you want with at the end of every month.

I'm looking into moving into somewhere by myself, and therefore cost is an issue. I can't afford these £600 rents that I see advertised for flats in Belfast - I had no idea there was anything anywhere near the price you are paying.

What's the rental market like at the moment in Belfast, is it a fight to get something or is everyone still wanting to buy so you can maybe haggle and get a decent priced rent? Where did you find out about the place your renting? The only place I look is propertynews.com but there's bound to be other ways to find places to rent.

Yes, we do intend to stay here as long as possible! We have plenty of disposable income, and that's after saving a good amount every month. We would like to buy at some stage, but not until prices crash by a huge amount. Which they will. I feel sorry for your friends (and anyone I know who bought recently).

We found it through word of mouth, that's usually the way I've found places in the past too. Check daft.ie and gumtree.com, they have Belfast sections.

The rental market is absolutely saturated here. Even in South Belfast, but elsewhere in the city you can haggle the rent down quite low. Don't forget that rates (NI equivalent of council tax) are included in rent in 95% of cases - check to make sure.

[talksalot81]

Eire are 4 months in a row of falling prices. NI is 2 months:

http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2007/June/19g.asp

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

House prices in Northern Ireland have slowed for the second month in a row...

The latest figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank House Price Survey shows property price growth in May has gone down again as a succession of rising interest rates start to take their toll.

Its interesting to see Great Crash 2 spread. Strikes Eire first then whips around and has a go at Spain as it travels over France and back into the Emerald Isle. It just brushed the northern region on the UK mainland in the first Q while leaping into London to send more than 50% of the boroughs down in the last RM survey. Perhaps it is becoming more erratic as the crash gathers pace? Hard to predict where it might strike hardest next?

I am afraid you have misinterpreted the link. That information still indicates rather strong growth in the NI market, it is simply not as strong as previously. A 5% drop in growth does not mean a drop in prices when the underlying growth is way into double digits....

I have seen this quite a few times, do not be too keen to spread the word because misinformation like this is counter productive.

[tara747]

I am afraid you have misinterpreted the link. That information still indicates rather strong growth in the NI market, it is simply not as strong as previously. A 5% drop in growth does not mean a drop in prices when the underlying growth is way into double digits....

I have seen this quite a few times, do not be too keen to spread the word because misinformation like this is counter productive.

Yes, one does need to pay careful attention! Slowing growth in prices, that's what it is.

I am focusing more on the enormous rise in inventory TBH - that was what happened first in the Republic, the price drops lagged by a few months. If fewer properties are selling, that is enough news in itself.

Good on you talksalot. We need to focus on the facts lads.

[Bosco]

Yes, I pay £270pcm (BF and I pay £135 each) to live in a lovely flat in the nicest area of the city (Stranmillis), which is probably worth £270K. 1% yield anyone??

Tara yield obviously depends when your landlord/lady bought the property- its unlikely they have a 270k mortgage unless they are a recent amateur.

Any idea how long they've owned it?

[Sour Mash]

Yes, and the FTBs will not be stepping in to replace them, thank you very much. After years of being shafted and outbid by specuvestors, we will make them weep by not buying till it hits rock bottom!

Yes, I pay £270pcm (BF and I pay £135 each) to live in a lovely flat in the nicest area of the city (Stranmillis), which is probably worth £270K. 1% yield anyone??

No rent rises here, sir. There is a huge oversupply of rental property in NI.

With an incredibly cheap deal like that in Stranmillis, I have to wonder why you are so vehement and vocal about high property prices?

Did you miss out on a deal early on or something, and now feel aggreived? With a 270 quid per month flat in that location, rent split between two people, I wouldn't give a toss about the market in general and would just enter when I felt the time was right (near the bottom, on the turn).

[tara747]

post='671149' date='Jun 19 2007, 05:19 PM']Yes, I pay £270pcm (BF and I pay £135 each) to live in a lovely flat in the nicest area of the city (Stranmillis), which is probably worth £270K. 1% yield anyone??

Tara yield obviously depends when your landlord/lady bought the property- its unlikely they have a 270k mortgage unless they are a recent amateur.

Any idea how long they've owned it?

Ages!

Edited June 19, 2007 by tara747

[tara747]

With an incredibly cheap deal like that in Stranmillis, I have to wonder why you are so vehement and vocal about high property prices?

Did you miss out on a deal early on or something, and now feel aggreived? With a 270 quid per month flat in that location, rent split between two people, I wouldn't give a toss about the market in general and would just enter when I felt the time was right (near the bottom, on the turn).

I am interested as I would like to buy in the future. Obviously I am not being financially troubled by renting and am in fact far better off than someone who has bought recently. The sheer madness of HPI here has just confused the hell out of me!!

There are people on this forum who have owned their house for years, are comfortably off yet can still see the negative aspects of HPI.

Edited June 19, 2007 by tara747

[Guest vicmac64]

This is great stuff Tara - heard recently that estate agents in Ballymena were privately admitting propertys had depreciated by avg 20k in the pas 4 weeks - business is extremely slow for them!!!

Ha Ha

[JoeDavola]

Lets hope they drop by 20K every month from now on, I'll maybe buy myself a house in Ballymena this christmas

Edited June 19, 2007 by JoeDavola

[Guest vicmac64]

With an incredibly cheap deal like that in Stranmillis, I have to wonder why you are so vehement and vocal about high property prices?

Did you miss out on a deal early on or something, and now feel aggreived? With a 270 quid per month flat in that location, rent split between two people, I wouldn't give a toss about the market in general and would just enter when I felt the time was right (near the bottom, on the turn).

Sour Mash - Tara isn't the only one over here with their head screwed on - and Tara is right - the winds of a massive global recession are blowing hard - and very soon we will see the inevitable job losses in the Prvate AND PUBLIC SECTORS that will bring and the consequential drop in value to properties 'and a return to properties fundamental values', these telephone numbers that people talk of today are just that - based on 1.3trillon debt...... Does that not scare you!

Our whole economy is now built on that Debt slavery and greed!

The reset will be hard I fear - and I can't see any sector being safe - remember that when Japan entered a similiar recession house prices fell for a straight 10 years as did WAGES - Yeah wages fell as well - and the scariest thing of all is that Japan had a strong manufacturing and export base on which to base a revival of her economic fortunes!!!!

Guess what - WE DON'T!!!

Of course I could be wrong! But I don;t think so!

[Sour Mash]

Sour Mash - Tara isn't the only one over here with their head screwed on - and Tara is right - the winds of a massive global recession are blowing hard - and very soon we will see the inevitable job losses in the Prvate AND PUBLIC SECTORS that will bring and the consequential drop in value to properties 'and a return to properties fundamental values', these telephone numbers that people talk of today are just that - based on 1.3trillon debt...... Does that not scare you!

Our whole economy is now built on that Debt slavery and greed!

The reset will be hard I fear - and I can't see any sector being safe - remember that when Japan entered a similiar recession house prices fell for a straight 10 years as did WAGES - Yeah wages fell as well - and the scariest thing of all is that Japan had a strong manufacturing and export base on which to base a revival of her economic fortunes!!!!

Guess what - WE DON'T!!!

Of course I could be wrong! But I don;t think so!

Great - but what does any of that have to do with my post? If I was in a 270 quid per week flat in Stranmillis I wouldn't be on this forum every day getting angry about a passing property boom which will likely deliver some very good buying opportunities during the inevitable bust.

[tara747]

This is great stuff Tara - heard recently that estate agents in Ballymena were privately admitting propertys had depreciated by avg 20k in the pas 4 weeks - business is extremely slow for them!!!

Ha Ha

That is great if true. I am often surprised by how candid EAs can be, but there can be no doubt that the market is at least slowing.

propertynews NI inventory now 11,292!

Sour Mash - Tara isn't the only one over here with their head screwed on - and Tara is right - the winds of a massive global recession are blowing hard - and very soon we will see the inevitable job losses in the Prvate AND PUBLIC SECTORS that will bring and the consequential drop in value to properties 'and a return to properties fundamental values', these telephone numbers that people talk of today are just that - based on 1.3trillon debt...... Does that not scare you!

Our whole economy is now built on that Debt slavery and greed!

The reset will be hard I fear - and I can't see any sector being safe - remember that when Japan entered a similiar recession house prices fell for a straight 10 years as did WAGES - Yeah wages fell as well - and the scariest thing of all is that Japan had a strong manufacturing and export base on which to base a revival of her economic fortunes!!!!

Guess what - WE DON'T!!!

Of course I could be wrong! But I don;t think so!

Good points about Japan. They are only just emerging from a 17-year recession even with all those economic fundamentals (that we don't have).

It is a fact that average house prices went up 50% in NI last year so why can't they go down a similar amount in one year. Its only the VIs who keep talking the market up its no longer a discussion point in shops and hairdressers as it was 3 months ago. The winds of change are blowing.

Yes, nice to see people shutting up about how much their house is worth this week!

Great - but what does any of that have to do with my post? If I was in a 270 quid per week flat in Stranmillis I wouldn't be on this forum every day getting angry about a passing property boom which will likely deliver some very good buying opportunities during the inevitable bust.

Sorry, are there some kind of criteria for posting here? I think you'll find a wide mix of people on this forum in all sorts of situations. There is room for everyone!

[tara747]

daft inventory is edging towards 43,000 - it had been shooting up, then stablised at around 42,000 just after the election in Ireland - now that SD is 'sorted out' houses still aren't selling and inventory has even started to increase again, oh dear! What will they blame next? Maybe ECB IRs and the fact that houses are just too expensive???

[pod]

now that SD is 'sorted out'

I didn't hear about that. Has the stamp duty question been "answered"?

If it has, it's good that that is out of the way so it can no longer be used as a reason as to why there is now such a stockpile of houses for sale.

[tara747]

I didn't hear about that. Has the stamp duty question been "answered"?

If it has, it's good that that is out of the way so it can no longer be used as a reason as to why there is now such a stockpile of houses for sale.

Apparently Bertie has promised to abolish SD for all FTBs - this will be backdated to 30 April. Not that it affects most FTBs, as previously they didn't pay it on properties below 317.5K - and most FTBs buy below this level. Ha ha!

And you are right - it has been used as an excuse, now it can't be and the facts will be there for all to see.

[tara747]

NI for sale inventory is now 11,479. It's going up steadily!

Edited June 21, 2007 by tara747

[joey]

Could be some interesting times for Northern Ireland soon explained in Japanese terms

Thursday, June 07, 2007

By Ben Lowry

You can't go wrong with property - so believes a generation of home owners in Northern Ireland who have only seen gains.

Well, you can go wrong - in deed disastrously.

Consider Tokyo in 1991, where the average cost of a 750-sq ft condominium was 70m yen, about £300,000.

Today, 16 years later, such an apartment will sell for 40m yen (about £170,000), a drop of 45%.

As any recent househunter will know, £300,000 now only buys a fairly modest house in Belfast.

If you purchased such a property today, and then there was a slump of Japanese proportions, you would later have to slash the price to sell it - and not to £260,000 in two years, but to £170,000, even if you waited until 2023. The comparison sounds extreme, given that Japan - unlike Britain and Ireland - has had severe economic problems, but there is a key parallel.

Japanese property prices were around ten times average incomes before they burst, the sort of ratio we are nudging in Northern Ireland (where house prices are now above the UK norm while average incomes remain below).

Consider even the milder house price slump in Britain in the early 1990s. In the final quarter of 1988 an average property in London cost £105,000, according to the Halifax House Price Index. That figure slid relentlessly downwards over the next seven years, bottoming out at £76,500 in late 1995 - a 27% drop.

It was mid 1998 before a buyer who had purchased at the peak in London got back their money - ten long years. If you adjust for inflation, it took even longer – until mid 2001.

Despite such evidence that housing booms often end in bust, many young people scrambling to get on to the property ladder are being told - often by their elders - that the worst that can happen to house prices is a " soft landing", or a period of stagnation.

It is true there has never been a major downturn in prices here, but until now there has never been a major boom.

Now the boom is so spectacular that last year Northern Ireland grew faster than anywhere in Europe. Recent quarterly rises have been the highest seen in the UK since either Halifax or Nationwide began records.

In such exceptional circumstances, it is worth remembering the legal principle of "caveat emptor" - let the buyer beware.

Applied to a buyer who is about to borrow six times their salary, a useful test might be: could you cope if there was a collapse?

Some people will answer yes, because they expect their income to rise.

Others are buying a dream house that they will be happy to live in for many years.

But anyone who could not bear such a prospect should pause before exchanging contracts.

Investors are said to be no longer buying in Northern Ireland, but what about the investors that already own? Many have bought £200,000 apartments that rent out for £400 a month.

Unless they have put down a deposit of 70%, they are running the flat at a month-to-month loss on the assumption of capital gains. If, in the absence of such gains, those investors flood the market with houses, prices will fall.

Also, if interest rates hit 6% in the coming months, that will be a 0.75% rise since April. For a household with a 90% interest-only mortgage on an average Northern Ireland house price of £210,000, that is a £1,400 a year increase. Add in possible water charges in future years, and higher rates bills, and the increase in annual outlay could top £2,000.

Furthermore, housing supply is increasing in Northern Ireland - albeit gradually. Thousands of bungalows that were processed before the PPS 14 ban are yet to be built. Huge apartment complexes, such as those in the Titanic Quarter, are also going to construction.

The Regional Development Strategy is trying to encourage more than 210,000 new homes across the province over the next decade.

These factors lead many pundits to believe that it is only a question of when house prices fall in Northern Ireland, not if.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/opi...icle2633173.ece

THE BELFAST TELEGRAPH has hit the nail on the head

Edited June 28, 2007 by joey

[tara747]

Unfortunately no-one really believed him in the house selling sector and although there is a positive forest of for sale signs the prices are still in cloud cuckoo land. I'm telling everyone about property snake in the hope that it gets about that prices can drop as well as go up.

Good for you doccyboy!

I think an email circular about propertysnake would be very useful...

[tara747]

daft.ie inventory now 43,255! Up from c. 14,000 in September 2006. Tripled in 9 months!

propertynews.com NI inventory now 11,978! Up from c. 4,000 in January 2007. Tripled in 5 months!

[FrustratedFTB]

Hi

I've been a long time lurker on this site for the last six months or so.

Just thought I throw my two pence in.

I have been looking to buy in the Lisburn area in the last two years or more, on and off and every time I bid on a house I always got outbid (many times by investors/speculators) or the sellers ended up not selling as they could not find anywhere to move to. I have a sizeable deposit and a good salary but cannot afford the current prices around Lisburn which are well above 200k.

I looked at the following house toward the end of last year, I think it was on for 160k or so and went for 175 or so, I need to check my records to see (oh I wish we had the opportunity like the mainland to see what price houses actually went for!).

Well guess what it’s back on the market with a sign outside saying good investment opportunity, you decide!

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC190604

[WSG]

Gross yields are 2.5% - 2.9% of current prices.

GROSS!!!!

[squire]

Property inventory at 12001 and increasing.

Edited June 28, 2007 by squire

[tara747]

Hi

I've been a long time lurker on this site for the last six months or so.

Just thought I throw my two pence in.

I have been looking to buy in the Lisburn area in the last two years or more, on and off and every time I bid on a house I always got outbid (many times by investors/speculators) or the sellers ended up not selling as they could not find anywhere to move to. I have a sizeable deposit and a good salary but cannot afford the current prices around Lisburn which are well above 200k.

I looked at the following house toward the end of last year, I think it was on for 160k or so and went for 175 or so, I need to check my records to see (oh I wish we had the opportunity like the mainland to see what price houses actually went for!).

Well guess what it’s back on the market with a sign outside saying good investment opportunity, you decide!

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC190604

Keep an eye on it, it will be interesting to see whether they find a greater fool to sell to! With the for sale inventory so high now, they may struggle to sell.

Welcome, BTW.

[tara747]

daft inventory now 43,719.

propertynews inventory now 12,161.