No Crash Yet - Surprised I'm Not

[time]

It has occured to me, that no matter how much time we wait for a house price crash and a decline in prices, it just never seems to pull off. Just yesterday, I was convinced that the BofE would increase interest rates by 0.25%. A lot of people said they lacked the b4lls to do it, they were right.

Interest rates are high, but not that high.

Supply apprarantly is low and therefore demand is high.

Affordability is off the chart, but the banks just react by loosening credit terms (10x salaries) lie to buy, etc.

Just as one lot of BTL investor fold, another pops up, theres no end to the madness.

The so called HIPs was meant to stall the system and bring about a crash and a big old c0ck up that was.

There is talk (dangerous talk) that house prices might just crash to 2005 and then start rising again.

Everything we talk about on here is 100% correct, there should be a crash.

So where is it ?

This time next year, we will be in the same situation, allegedly on the verge of a crash but not yet. Is this a fools errand.

The way things are going, even with a crash you will still be paying 2005 prices. Because in the meantime the price of property however slight is going up.

Just a thought, what do you say ?

Edited June 8, 2007 by time

[music man]

Oil tanker...

It does take time - 'time'.

Don't forget Hips was as much propaganda as SIPPS.

Shortage of supply myth.

And fixed rates are setting. I believe there is a general pull downwards on the housing market from many directions.

Edited June 8, 2007 by music man

[time]

Shortage of supply myth.

There is plenty of housing, but very little of which is affordable. So I will correct this by saying "Shortage of Supply of Affordable Homes".

[Dubai]

Is your new avatar a view from your gaff??

How's it panning out in Thailand?

[Nickolarge]

Oil tanker...

It does take time - 'time'.

Don't forget Hips was as much propaganda as SIPPS.

Shortage of supply myth.

And fixed rates are setting. I believe there is a general pull downwards on the housing market from many directions.

Oil tanker is right and it does take time. Read the headlines from the last crash. Most people won't see the crash when it's been going for over a year.

HIPS was more likely to cause a surge in prices in the long run, not a crash.

Shortage of supply is just bull designed to prop up the market. The rush to beat HIPS means that there are too many houses on the market right now but not many new instructions in the pipeline.

The key to all this is the fact that everyone I know is maxed out on their borrowing. A few years back I knew two guys who had gone bust many years ago. Today I know of at least three who are about to go down plus myself. IVA's were up 50% last year. The banks don't want to tighten up on lending because they know it's a house of cards but never the less they have started to squeeze the higher risk loans and cards already.

[dog]

........ I was convinced that the BofE would increase interest rates by 0.25%. A lot of people said they lacked the b4lls to do it, they were right...........................

The delay in the crash reflects the BOE's failure to act decisively on interest rates. For the same reason no one can yet call a top on this interest rate cycle. My money is on 8%+.

[UNSHURE]

It has occured to me, that no matter how much time we wait for a house price crash and a decline in prices, it just never seems to pull off.

Just a thought, what do you say ?

I think that the crash is coming and it may be nearer than anyone thinks if Dr Bubb's analysis is correct. Also, the media are starting to talk about the possibility of a crash, when they are not hyping the market up. Also consider what is happening in the US and now Spain and Eire.

A few thoughts on this though:

1) The crash has not yet started. I have been to several towns in the North of England in the past week. I have seen no sign of a crash. There are 'Sold signs' up all over the place. The place where I live is notorious for being one of the first in the UK to be affected by a crash. There is no sign of a crash here yet.

2) The Housing market could turn quickly once it starts. Quicker than past crashes. There is a large speculative element in the market in the form of BTL. Once prices start going down, momentum could soon gather pace. If this scenario occurs, FTB's will steer well away.

3) Government interest rates are very low considering the debt levels, HPI and general inflation in the economy. They should be higher. The slightest 0.25% rise could topple the whole thing. This shows just how fragile the whole thing is. If the economy was strong, the MPC could have hiked rates by 2% this week to quell rising inflation.

4) The UK could try to reflate the economy again this Autumn. Many commentators are predicting a worldwide reflation led by the US Fed. If this happens it could give the housing market another boost. However, it would also cause very serious inflation problems over the next few years. If this happens, the crash is likely to be against Gold rather than £ sterling.

5) The crash could be in real terms rather than nominal terms.

[libspero]

Don't forget Hips was as much propaganda as SIPPS.

I just signed up for a SIPP... what is wrong with them?

Should I get out before I start investing?

(Edited to add: Sorry, off topic.. I'll ask in the investment forum)

Edited June 8, 2007 by libspero

[deano]

It has occured to me, that no matter how much time we wait for a house price crash and a decline in prices, it just never seems to pull off. Just yesterday, I was convinced that the BofE would increase interest rates by 0.25%. A lot of people said they lacked the b4lls to do it, they were right.

Interest rates are high, but not that high.

Supply apprarantly is low and therefore demand is high.

Affordability is off the chart, but the banks just react by loosening credit terms (10x salaries) lie to buy, etc.

Just as one lot of BTL investor fold, another pops up, theres no end to the madness.

The so called HIPs was meant to stall the system and bring about a crash and a big old c0ck up that was.

There is talk (dangerous talk) that house prices might just crash to 2005 and then start rising again.

Everything we talk about on here is 100% correct, there should be a crash.

So where is it ?

This time next year, we will be in the same situation, allegedly on the verge of a crash but not yet. Is this a fools errand.

The way things are going, even with a crash you will still be paying 2005 prices. Because in the meantime the price of property however slight is going up.

Just a thought, what do you say ?

This is talking my language. What do you do.

[Sugardaddy]

It has occured to me, that no matter how much time we wait for a house price crash and a decline in prices, it just never seems to pull off. Just yesterday, I was convinced that the BofE would increase interest rates by 0.25%. A lot of people said they lacked the b4lls to do it, they were right.

Interest rates are high, but not that high.

Supply apprarantly is low and therefore demand is high.

Affordability is off the chart, but the banks just react by loosening credit terms (10x salaries) lie to buy, etc.

Just as one lot of BTL investor fold, another pops up, theres no end to the madness.

The so called HIPs was meant to stall the system and bring about a crash and a big old c0ck up that was.

There is talk (dangerous talk) that house prices might just crash to 2005 and then start rising again.

Everything we talk about on here is 100% correct, there should be a crash.

So where is it ?

This time next year, we will be in the same situation, allegedly on the verge of a crash but not yet. Is this a fools errand.

The way things are going, even with a crash you will still be paying 2005 prices. Because in the meantime the price of property however slight is going up.

Just a thought, what do you say ?

Ask the average Joe what the current BOE rate is, most people won't be able to tell you. Home ownership is widely perceived to be a good idea, and in the current climate people will simply carry on buying until they they hit the buffers, and credit is no longer available to them.

Part of my business is refurbishing and selling flats. Often the vendors of the properties I buy are facing repossesion. Over the last 2 years the number of individuals I have encountered in this situation has mushroomed. Usually they have 2-3 mortgages from subprime lenders sometimes charging in excess of 10% pa, and often zero equity in the property after early redemption charges if they can sell.

We live in a "want it now society". This applies to housing bears also. I deal with overextended homeowners on almost a daily basis, the majority of whom would have been so much happier and financially better off if they had simply rented.

A reversion of housing prices is occuring now, you just have to know where to look ( and that's not yet in the offices of your local estate agent). It will take some time for this to feed through to the public consciousness, many of whom are homeowners with their own vested beliefs.

Incidentaly, this house sold for £810,00 in 2005. Now vacant and on sale for £575,000. There are thousands of similar situations around the country, remember it is the small percentage of properties selling that set the values for the whole of the market.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-708...=1&tr_t=buy

[Flick]

I think that the crash is coming and it may be nearer than anyone thinks if Dr Bubb's analysis is correct.

You must be a noob!

Time, enjoy yourself to the max. I spent a year out there in 2002/3 (fully expecting house prices to be a bit lower by the time I got back

). Don't hold your breath, just try to have a year or two that you will never forget. I know I did. Oh yes, don't go to pattaya either

Awful financial mistake it was, but wouldn't change it for the world.

Whereabouts in LOS are you at the moment?

Edited June 8, 2007 by Flick

[time]

Is your new avatar a view from your gaff??

How's it panning out in Thailand?

Thailand is great. The only the only complaint is bacon. Yes Bacon. You get a decent dutch anywhere. I would happy pay for someone to fedex me some. The avatar is of me in Koh Chang, an Island near Cambodia.

How are things back in the UK ?

[time]

The delay in the crash reflects the BOE's failure to act decisively on interest rates. For the same reason no one can yet call a top on this interest rate cycle. My money is on 8%+.

i dont think your far wrong with your prediction "dog", not far wrong at all.

[time]

This is talking my language. What do you do.

I worked for as a tax advisor for Royal Scandia in the Isle of Man. Now I am working on my own projects.

[Flick]

Thailand is great. The only the only complaint is bacon. Yes Bacon. You get a decent dutch anywhere. I would happy pay for someone to fedex me some. The avatar is of me in Koh Chang, an Island near Cambodia.

If you happen to be passing back thorugh BKK at any time, pop into Chequers near nana plaza for the best imitation of an english breakfast I ever found!

[time]

You must be a noob!

Time, enjoy yourself to the max. I spent a year out there in 2002/3 (fully expecting house prices to be a bit lower by the time I got back

). Don't hold your breath, just try to have a year or two that you will never forget. I know I did. Oh yes, don't go to pattaya either

Awful financial mistake it was, but wouldn't change it for the world.

Whereabouts in LOS are you at the moment?

I havent sold up, I still keep a house in Onchan. I have the intenton of returning for three months of the year, whenever that will be.

[IDN]

it is difficult being this patient- it would probably be better to have a house now and STR in a few months maybe.

the fact is there is no drive from the goverment/BOE to reduce HPI- its not as though anyone official is even saying it exists or that its a problem

i also agree that if there were drops, then we'd just be pegged back a year or two and it would still be damn expensive.

what we need is something cataclasmic (sp?) something like a global SM crash of epic proportions-or IR to reach 7+%

both of these possibilities seem remote- i know IR have been rising but the BOE/GB dont have the balls to raise IR to a level that would have an impact on HPI- their 'basket' doesnt even include house prices- it dont even register with them :angry:

if you cant beat em-join em?

[Guest The_Oldie]

I havent sold up, I still keep a house in Onchan. I have the intenton of returning for three months of the year, whenever that will be.

Time, I'm a little confused, perhaps you can help me to understand.

You say that you are living in Thailand and previously, I believe, in the Isle-of-Man, yet all 643 of your posts on this forum have been made from the midlands.

[HOwner]

the fact is there is no drive from the goverment/BOE to reduce HPI- its not as though anyone official is even saying it exists or that its a problem

What do you expect the govt to actually do about it?

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Time, I'm a little confused, perhaps you can help me to understand.

You say that you are living in Thailand and previously, I believe, in the Isle-of-Man, yet all 643 of your posts on this forum have been made from the midlands.

C'mon Oldie, most people who post here are bulls**tters!

Remember also this guy claimed to have bet 5 grand on an IR hold in May.

[cells]

if banks tighten credit, we will have a fast heavy crash

the other routes are, mass unemployment or a dramatic rise in interest rates, probably something like 8%

[Without_a_Paddle]

Time, I'm a little confused, perhaps you can help me to understand.

You say that you are living in Thailand and previously, I believe, in the Isle-of-Man, yet all 643 of your posts on this forum have been made from the midlands.

Maybe he's got a really powerful wireless router.

Or maybe he's in a bedsit over a Thai Takeaway in Chelmsley Wood....

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

It has occured to me, that no matter how much time we wait for a house price crash and a decline in prices, it just never seems to pull off. Just yesterday, I was convinced that the BofE would increase interest rates by 0.25%. A lot of people said they lacked the b4lls to do it, they were right.

Interest rates are high, but not that high.

Supply apprarantly is low and therefore demand is high.

Affordability is off the chart, but the banks just react by loosening credit terms (10x salaries) lie to buy, etc.

Just as one lot of BTL investor fold, another pops up, theres no end to the madness.

The so called HIPs was meant to stall the system and bring about a crash and a big old c0ck up that was.

There is talk (dangerous talk) that house prices might just crash to 2005 and then start rising again.

Everything we talk about on here is 100% correct, there should be a crash.

So where is it ?

This time next year, we will be in the same situation, allegedly on the verge of a crash but not yet. Is this a fools errand.

The way things are going, even with a crash you will still be paying 2005 prices. Because in the meantime the price of property however slight is going up.

Just a thought, what do you say ?

********

[sign_of_the_times]

Time, I'm a little confused, perhaps you can help me to understand.

You say that you are living in Thailand and previously, I believe, in the Isle-of-Man, yet all 643 of your posts on this forum have been made from the midlands.

FWIW I spotted this troll as soon as he arrived.........

[Malarkey]

Time, I'm a little confused, perhaps you can help me to understand.

You say that you are living in Thailand and previously, I believe, in the Isle-of-Man, yet all 643 of your posts on this forum have been made from the midlands.

Hi Oldie. How on earth did you find this out?

I really would rather believe that Time was in Thailand, I hope you made a mistake. Not saying you did though.