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Willit

Great Crash 2? Not Here Yet I'm Afraid...

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

Yes, but all it takes is for sentiment to turn. (I hope ) (cross fingers) (prey to the BOE)

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

a few things; firstly this is anecdotal and should be filed as such, however, a "flurry of DIY activity" = 20K gross profit (before tax and costs) after what, 8 months? - hope he didn't give up the day job ;)

Secondly, smart traders made money in the last downturn, they will in this, if I was a trader of houses I'd be salivating at the opportunities coming my way, I hope smart FTBs are too. BTW, there was never a great crash one :rolleyes:

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Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

Yes,

people like their own place and not enough of them are being built.

Easy credit and a steady economy all lead to prices being higher than they once were.

These high prices dont really make sense but I cant see an end to it right now.

The BoE are not going to slap a 2 or 3 percentage increase on the rate are they?

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

North Leeds decent houses are selling well; the average is just under the 250K Stamp Duty limit. I do see stormy or at least choppy waters ahead but the crap one reads here about "already started" and similar is just wishful thinking.

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Here is my "Neithersworth": Great Crash 2 arrived several months ago when, according to the LR figures, several regions saw price falls and many more stagnated leaving London and the SE with the only significant rises. The BTL exodus is in full swing as yields drop below 4%. Major land contracts are being canceled:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1895836.ece

With BTL and commercial investing effectively over we can safely say that Great Crash 2 has a healthy foothold in the UK. After all, with the US in full swing, Spain reeling, France seeing sizable drops, Ireland coming to a "screeching halt" and Southern Ireland seeing the first falls the signs could not be any clearer.

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

Wrong. Some prices are going up, some prices are staying still and some prices are coming down. You are trying to extrapolate market trends from a single observation. Thats not very smart.

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

Did it actually sell for the prices you're quoting or do the land registry figures show a lower value. I'm only asking because in Cambridge you'd believe that prices are rocketing whereas actual land registry figures show they're falling. E.g. one house near a friend sold according to the EA for over 400k. Looking at the land registry figures it actually sold for 310k.

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Guest pioneer31
House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

They've stopped going up in East Devon

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Did it actually sell for the prices you're quoting or do the land registry figures show a lower value. I'm only asking because in Cambridge you'd believe that prices are rocketing whereas actual land registry figures show they're falling. E.g. one house near a friend sold according to the EA for over 400k. Looking at the land registry figures it actually sold for 310k.

I hope somebody is going to introduce that EA to the land registry facts.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

I personally like anecdotal evidence, as long as it's reliable.

The problem is that most people lie. For example, when your talking to a guy about cars, why is it that the car he bought was a bargain, he got it for next to nothing, but the car he sold he got top dollar for. ;)

you need to follow up that property with a land registry check as others have suggested. Certain people don't like saying that their house actually sold for a lot less than next doors now do they..... :ph34r:

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I hope somebody is going to introduce that EA to the land registry facts.

I imagine that the EA is more than aware of the land registry facts. But his agenda is to maximise any future personal profits. EA's reduce their profits if they cannot charge as high commission. So they have to inflate the market to increase their personal income. Why oh why do we allow these selfish and greedy numpties to set the prices on homes?

Oh I remember now, the banks have been allowing them to to screw the workforce for every penny they can squeeze out of them :o

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Here is my "Neithersworth": Great Crash 2 arrived several months ago when, according to the LR figures, several regions saw price falls and many more stagnated leaving London and the SE with the only significant rises.

It certainly doesn't look like a crash round here yet. I live near Burnley. Yesterday, I went out for the day in the Yorkshire Dales. I travelled through Burnley, Brierfield, Barrowford, Blacko, Gisburn, Long Preston, Settle, Horton in Ribblesdale and Ingleton on the way back.

It was disheartening to see houses with SOLD signs all along the way. Both town and country , big expensive houses and small cottages. There were also a number of houses with 'SALE AGREED' signs outside them. It looks very much like a boom on the Lancashire/Yorkshire border area.

I do believe, however, that the US situation is a proper crash. Vast areas of the country are experiencing a rapid reversal of house price gains that occured over the last few years. The US is toast.

Spain also looks like it is heading into a crash, closely followed by Eire and perhaps France. The UK, however, looks to be fairly solid in comparison to these other countries. However, it can't last forever, and perhaps the UK downside will be a lot worst than the other countries when it arrives.

When it does arrive, in my area, I will post the news with glee.

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Here is my "Neithersworth": Great Crash 2 arrived several months ago when, according to the LR figures, several regions saw price falls and many more stagnated leaving London and the SE with the only significant rises. The BTL exodus is in full swing as yields drop below 4%.

local prices go up and down all the time, they have done over the last 5years *gasp*, and some areas will go up and down over the next 5. If an area that interests you looks good value then good for you, I picked up my bargin last year.

The trouble with peeps on HPC is that they get caught up in the headlines (not that they are suckered in by "media" - oh no!) and think that all houses have doubled in price or whatever. I think people will define a "great" crash as when the average national prices drop. This isnt happening. Yet some people here seem to have defined it as an increase in reposessions or an increase of rates. Unfortunately we've been bombarded with "triggers" on HPC for 5 years now so forgive us if we dont believe it!

Lets wait until we see some movement in the one thing that actually matters - national house prices! Until then, yep by all means look out for a good bargin, I picked up a great 3 bed semi in London last year because there happened to be about 15-20 properties on in the space of about 3 roads :D. This dried up and similar places are coming and going quickly, the smaller terrace houses in my street are selling in days when they come and for the same as my semi was.

Dont confuse local markets with national ones, the bargins are there for those bothered to look. And as pointed out above, smart people can still make money in a falling market... :).

Edited by Orbital

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Yet some people here seem to have defined it as an increase in reposessions or an increase of rates. Unfortunately we've been bombarded with "triggers" on HPC for 5 years now so forgive us if we dont believe it!

Good to know that just because we are not dead yet we won't die.

yep by all means look out for a good bargin, I picked up a great 3 bed semi in London last year

The period of 2001 to 2006 will be remembered as the biggest property bubble, in history, and you think that you bought a bargain in 2006 ? You are either just deluding yourself, as you are not deluding us, or you have an optimistic view of economy based on limited knowledge.

Dont confuse local markets with national ones, the bargins are there for those bothered to look. And as pointed out above, smart people can still make money in a falling market... :).

Smart money has already left the market and waiting to pick up the bargains in a few years time after the crash. Those, who you think are smart, will pay for buying in today's market. Greed and stupidity has no limits :lol:

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

Maybe still going up in your neck of the woods but not in my area and a lot of other areas,when prices rise it takes time to spread to different areas and the same happens when prices drop. So i would be very cautious about buying in areas like yours at the present time.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
BTW, there was never a great crash one :rolleyes:

They do get the numbering wrong, we`ve had No 1 and No 2, now they should be talking about No 3. ;)

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House in my street (South Devon), sold for £145K end of last year (all the money I thought, given an identical house sold for £110K at the end of 03). A flurry of DIY activity and then I was interested to see it go back on the market a couple of weeks ago at £165K! :o

"He'll be lucky" I thought, "he's missed the boat on a fast turn-around, especially at that money, doesn't he know the party's over?"

Sold within three weeks.

And another house very similar just gone on at £172K.

Don't go counting those chickens just yet chaps, it's still all going up...

This is interesting.

I had thought that the SW would be in for a downward correction some time very soon, but, yesterday someone posted some stats on empty homes and the SW has a very low percentage which really suprised me (I dont know how up to date the figures were as the poster never responded to request) So it looks like there is more upward pressure in your region that I thought, at least

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