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Central London Ea Admits Business "difficult"


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EA based in West End finally admitted that despite all the supposed City bonuses, London as eternal fountain of money etc, there is not an endless queue of buyers willing to pay any price for even the tiniest of spaces, although he did insist there is a shortage of decent, London property, which is probably true. London can and will fall IMHO...

S.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
EA based in West End finally admitted that despite all the supposed City bonuses, London as eternal fountain of money etc, there is not an endless queue of buyers willing to pay any price for even the tiniest of spaces, although he did insist there is a shortage of decent, London property, which is probably true. London can and will fall IMHO...

S.

there will always be a shortage of very good period houses in very good areas imo, in all areas of the country, well almost. ;)

It will be interesting to see what happens in prime London & indeed the outer parts as well.

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EA based in West End finally admitted that despite all the supposed City bonuses, London as eternal fountain of money etc, there is not an endless queue of buyers willing to pay any price for even the tiniest of spaces, although he did insist there is a shortage of decent, London property, which is probably true. London can and will fall IMHO...

S.

Quality property is rare everywhere in england in my opinion - becasue the developers in this country generally build sh1te!

I know a brickie that builds houses that he says are [email protected] an he would never live in a recent new build his company build - he lives in a house that was built many many decades ago, a quality house.

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imo it wont.

To much money around here for that to happen is the near future. London is till affordable to allot of Londoners.

Oh yeah, and which Londoner's are those? I'm on 42k, my wife is on 26k, and if we wanted to stretch ourselves, we could afford a one bedroom fleapit in a [email protected] area of town.

You are talking b#llocks mate.

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Quality property is rare everywhere in england in my opinion - becasue the developers in this country generally build sh1te!

I know a brickie that builds houses that he says are [email protected] an he would never live in a recent new build his company build - he lives in a house that was built many many decades ago, a quality house.

Could not agree more with this. Fromn what I see most new-builts look crappy only shortly after being finished. Also, from the

construction sites I am walking by every now and then, I would say, no, I wouldn't buy any of these.

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EA based in West End finally admitted that despite all the supposed City bonuses, London as eternal fountain of money etc, there is not an endless queue of buyers willing to pay any price for even the tiniest of spaces, although he did insist there is a shortage of decent, London property, which is probably true. London can and will fall IMHO...

S.

Sure it will but by nowhere near the levels you lot are expecting. Literally everything in any decent part of London is selling and i include ex-LA in that.

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London will be worse than the rest of the UK because the speculation has been huuuuge!

Bloodbath awaits.

It's been a lot less than in other parts of the UK in percentage terms.

London also has the wages, the work and the appeal to lots of people with money. I think a lot of people are deluding themselves and forgetting that from 2002-5 London hardly shifted when the rest of the country was in the middle of a HPIfest.

Prices for prime London and best commuterland won't fall yet, I think they've got some room to go up and even if they do fall back, it won't be by nominal price falls, no matter how much it's wished for - there is simply not enough supply of property that people want. By all means by a Homerton crack den, but don't blame me if you lose a packet on it - good luck to you and all that, but Hackney ain't Hampstead - just like last time.

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It's been a lot less than in other parts of the UK in percentage terms.

London also has the wages, the work and the appeal to lots of people with money. I think a lot of people are deluding themselves and forgetting that from 2002-5 London hardly shifted when the rest of the country was in the middle of a HPIfest.

Prices for prime London and best commuterland won't fall yet, I think they've got some room to go up and even if they do fall back, it won't be by nominal price falls, no matter how much it's wished for - there is simply not enough supply of property that people want. By all means by a Homerton crack den, but don't blame me if you lose a packet on it - good luck to you and all that, but Hackney ain't Hampstead - just like last time.

London is appears very dependent on the financial sector. A downturn in that sector (e.g. failure of a major player) would hit London hard (IMHO). I would suggest there is a lot of crazy borrwing and lending at the moment, so a major vfailure can not be ruled out.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme
yes but that is "smart money" and to prop up a pyramid scam you need sheep money

why would the smart money go into btl with 4-5% yields when they can get 6% + risk free?

But, as any investors of zero-yield investments will tell you - such as the gold bugs on here, for example - it's not about yield, it's about capital gains.

Tchenguiz is still piling into BTL like never before: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a3cd6062-10a6-11dc...0b5df10621.html

Is he smart money or sheeple money?

He sees a long-term decline in home ownership and a huge growth in the private rented sector. He might be right. Mass home ownership may well be a thing of the past.

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Knowing two central lLondon EA's I can confirm that they have been twiddling their thumbs ever since the last rate rise, May mortgage approval figures will be quite a shock I feel. ;)

I gather that estate agents in London like nothing better than talking the market down and affirming the views of bears <_<

Clearly the London bull-run - which, as more sensible posters will tell you, is continuing - is the product of some mass delusion :rolleyes:

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Oh yeah, and which Londoner's are those? I'm on 42k, my wife is on 26k, and if we wanted to stretch ourselves, we could afford a one bedroom fleapit in a [email protected] area of town.

You are talking b#llocks mate.

Hmm... Using a ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings, that would give you 204k (plus I'm assuming you have some sort of deposit). That would get you a one bed flat in a thoroughly decent part of town, or two-to-three beds in a ropey part.

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yes but that is "smart money" and to prop up a pyramid scam you need sheep money

why would the smart money go into btl with 4-5% yields when they can get 6% + risk free?

Erm, dur, because its not the 4-5% yield that they are interested in.

Gearing means that they can make substantially more, ya know when you invest other people's money and keep the gains on that.

Assuming long term increases in prices. Given that this forum accepts markets are cyclical its not hard to understand that even if prices drop in the shor term in the long term it stands a chance of baring out. Of course its a risk, but the gains make it worthwhile.

My pop, bless him, bought a flat in the London 'burbs at the top of the last boom for about 60k, he sold it recently for over 300k. Even after costs he made a teensy weensy bit more than he would have done just sticking that initial investment in the bank. Yes, agreed, had he bought at the bottom he could have made more. But hindsight is a wonderful thing.

This is a longterm game.

Hmm... Using a ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings, that would give you 204k (plus I'm assuming you have some sort of deposit). That would get you a one bed flat in a thoroughly decent part of town, or two-to-three beds in a ropey part.

I earn way less than that and bought a 3 bed semi just last year, the smallest room has a king sized bed, nice garden too. 20min+ commute to the City, one of the least deprived and safest wards of the country. Near green open spaces of Surrey, friendly neighbours, kids playing in the street, etc.

Soz, but you arent looking hard enough. Or maybe you just believe the hype. I honestly feel many HPC forum members think that all houses everywhere cost a fortune and only go out looking for property that supports this and seem blind to anything else. I dont know how else to explain it...? Maybe im special! Quite possible tbh, my mum did tell me that once.

Edited by Orbital
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But most of the players seem to be expecting shortterm results?

With the last crash it took over 10 years to get back to what people payed at the top of the boom. 15 years in some cases outside London. With this longest property bull market in history it may take over 20 years to get back to what one payed at the top of the boom.

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London is appears very dependent on the financial sector. A downturn in that sector (e.g. failure of a major player) would hit London hard (IMHO). I would suggest there is a lot of crazy borrwing and lending at the moment, so a major vfailure can not be ruled out.

Which is a risk that is out there all the time. It's the same as anywhere else, if a major employer goes under, it's pain locally. I suggest that in London it will take far more than one going - e.g. Andersens went - not even noticed.

What is the risk is a significant market event - another Sep 11 being the most likely - which will affect everyone - and if that happens, God help the rest of the UK as well - without London to lead it/finance it, it's simply screwed.

There's crazy borrowing and lending - but what's crazier, Mr 33year old investment banker borrowing £1M (against £250K of earnings) to buy a nice flat in London or Mr 33year old local government worker borrowing £100K (against £25K of earnings) to buy a flat of the same size in say, Bradford ? Who is more likely to be able to find a way to pay the debt off or keep repossession at bay - he won't have treacle on his Yorkshire pud, put it that way.

It's a risk, we all know it is, but there are so many deals around at the moment and there seems to be a pipeline for the next 12-18months already, that unless some lunatic Muslims do something ridiculous in either London or New York that does more than simply blow up one building, then I simply can't see it turning for a while yet.

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Hmm... Using a ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings,

What is wrong with three times joint earnings for a multiple? surely it is safer than 6 x IO mortgage. It is ridicules to call "three times joint earnings" ridiculously modest. It is safe, sustainable & affordable but of course VI don't like it as they wouldn't be able rip people off and make them debt slave with "ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings"!

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What is wrong with three times joint earnings for a multiple? surely it is safer than 6 x IO mortgage. It is ridicules to call "three times joint earnings" ridiculously modest. It is safe, sustainable & affordable but of course VI don't like it as they wouldn't be able rip people off and make them debt slave with "ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings"!

3x mortgage is what everyone should be aiming for if they want a life as well as a property. :rolleyes:

Just think of all the fools with 5 and 6x loans who eat spam every night and use the credit card to buy it with. :lol:

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3x mortgage is what everyone should be aiming for if they want a life as well as a property. :rolleyes:

Just think of all the fools with 5 and 6x loans who eat spam every night and use the credit card to buy it with. :lol:

Tell me about it! I know someone, who has recently bought a flat, pays his council tax by credit card :lol:

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What is wrong with three times joint earnings for a multiple? surely it is safer than 6 x IO mortgage. It is ridicules to call "three times joint earnings" ridiculously modest. It is safe, sustainable & affordable but of course VI don't like it as they wouldn't be able rip people off and make them debt slave with "ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings"!

Given that interest rates remain historically low (with little chance of hitting double digits, as in the bad old days) why do you want to restrict yourself to a multiple that no longer reflects current affordability.

No wonder property looks expensive if you insist on restricting yourself within artificial limits. Plus, you need to take into account future pay rises and promotions. Is there any reason why a five times mortgage today won't be a three times mortgage in a couple of years. :)

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Hmm... Using a ridiculously modest multiple such as three times joint earnings, that would give you 204k (plus I'm assuming you have some sort of deposit). That would get you a one bed flat in a thoroughly decent part of town, or two-to-three beds in a ropey part.

OK, let's look at this, shall we?

three times joint was not offered by major banks until a few years ago.

204K would barely get you a studio in a decent part of "town", and where are these three bed places? Crack alley?

In former times you'd be able to get a decent two-three bed house for those kind of salaries without troubling the 3X multiple.

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