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Realistbear

Independent Asks: Why Is H P I Data Contradictory?

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http://news.independent.co.uk/business/ana...icle2600453.ece

The Big Question: Why are we getting mixed messages about the housing market?
By Ben Chu
Published: 01 June 2007
Why are we asking this now?
Yesterday the Nationwide Building Society reported that property prices had increased by 0.5 per cent last month and that annual house price inflation remains above 10 per cent. Seeming to back this robust assessment were the latest figures from the Land Registry showing that in April there was a 9.1 per cent rise in house values compared with the same month last year. The average price of a house in England and Wales now stands at £179,935, more than £15,000 higher than the same period last year.
However, there were some other figures released yesterday that seemed to tell a very different story. The Bank of England reported that
mortgage approvals fell to a 12-month low in April,
normally an indication of weakening demand.
And other figures released by the Land Registry showed that four UK regions - the North East, the South West, the North West, Yorkshire and Humber - actually saw the
cost of property fall during April.
There was more ominous news from The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which reported that its members have seen new buyer inquiries drop in April for the fifth month running.
Such seemingly conflicting indicators have enabled the media to pick whichever headline it wants.
"House Price Boom Over?"
screamed yesterday's Daily Mail's front page. Meanwhile the Daily Express boomed
"House prices still soaring"
. The public might be forgiven for feeling a little confused by all this.
Surely these reports are contradictory?
Not really. The fact that the number of mortgage approvals has fallen, as reported by the Bank of England, is an indicator of what is likely to happen to the market in the future. Such changes usually take about five to seven months to translate into house prices. The same is true of the number of buyer inquiries, as reported by The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. And Nationwide agrees that the underlying trend for house prices is showing signs of slowing. Fionnuala Earley,
Nationwide's chief economist, advises caution for those thinking about stretching themselves to get a foot on the ladder at the moment.
..../

Bottom line: the trend is down and the shinola has not quite made its way through the fan blades yet.

If Nationwide are saying: do not buy, take note.

Edited by Realistbear

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'Oversupply of new properties is becoming a problem.' But theres a supply shortage how can there be over supply??? :lol:

Too much of the wrong type of properties built(flats) and in the wrong areas(no room left in the South East,if you believe the Bulls in the South East anyway).Nottingham is a classic,you have acres of disused industrial land which get built over with flats that nobody wants.No wonder we are bottom of the HPI league table.

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Too much of the wrong type of properties built(flats) and in the wrong areas(no room left in the South East,if you believe the Bulls in the South East anyway).Nottingham is a classic,you have acres of disused industrial land which get built over with flats that nobody wants.No wonder we are bottom of the HPI league table.

Sadly am still seeing Sale Agreed and Sold on houses or conversions that have only been For Sale for a month or so, much to my surprise. Here on Herts border with London am not noting stagnant For Sale boards, but then it might all be smoke and mirrors or maybe the vendors are taking proper reductions to not get stuck with the property before any real slump sets in. I am also not too happy to see these fast buying cash for your house merchants, because although they probably pay 10% or whatever below, the fact they even want to pay that much is a worry if any real slump is really on the horizon. Of course I want to see real price falls, but I just wonder sometimes...

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Never believe the lenders YOY increase figures they are rubbish and i can testify for this first hand. I work somewhere where I am privy to valuations "for mortgage purposes" and often see the same property valued over a course of several years. House prices in the last 3 years definitely haven’t been rising by 10% per year.

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Nationwide's chief economist, advises caution for those thinking about stretching themselves to get a foot on the ladder at the moment.

hasn't this always been the case- & won't it always be the case?

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Guest d23
Never believe the lenders YOY increase figures they are rubbish and i can testify for this first hand. I work somewhere where I am privy to valuations "for mortgage purposes" and often see the same property valued over a course of several years. House prices in the last 3 years definitely haven’t been rising by 10% per year.

they do seem to correlate pretty closely to the LR figures and no ones questioning those are they?

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http://news.independent.co.uk/business/ana...icle2600453.ece
The Big Question: Why are we getting mixed messages about the housing market?
By Ben Chu
Published: 01 June 2007
Why are we asking this now?
Yesterday the Nationwide Building Society reported that property prices had increased by 0.5 per cent last month and that annual house price inflation remains above 10 per cent....
Is it not the case that the Nationwide Building Society go by documentation submitted to them via the mortgage process? In that case, perhaps the article should read:
"Yesterday the Nationwide Building Society reported that
mortgage fraud
had increased by 0.5 per cent last month and that
mortgage fraud
inflation remains above 10 per cent.... "

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Too much of the wrong type of properties built(flats) and in the wrong areas(no room left in the South East,if you believe the Bulls in the South East anyway).Nottingham is a classic,you have acres of disused industrial land which get built over with flats that nobody wants.No wonder we are bottom of the HPI league table.

Call for rural housing law change

Rural planning policy must be radically changed,

Assembly environment committee chairman

Patsy McGlone has said. About 500 dwellings

have been granted planning

permission since March 2006 when

restrictions came in. The figure for

the previous year for outline

planning permission alone was more

than 5,000, according to figures

obtained by Mr McGlone of the SDLP.

But the restrictions have been

welcomed by environmentalists, who

say the law - PPS 14 - prevents a

bungalow blitz. The government

announced last year that almost all

new plans for single rural dwellings

would not be considered. (BBC)

Government deliberately manipulating the housing market by preventing people building a house !

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