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dude wheres my house

1 Week To The Mpc

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Wow its come round so quickly..

The last rise must have provided enough articles / news / polls / etc etc etc to keep all busy ;)

Another rise will be big news...

They saw what happened when they stalled with the rises last time. Idont think that letters gonna be sent to

Brown again (Can that happen ?)

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They saw what happened when they stalled with the rises last time. Idont think that letters gonna be sent to

Brown again (Can that happen ?)

Put it this way, it will not be Brown who receives it :lol:

By the way, I think they will hold this month.

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.5% drop.

Nah, it will be a hold. They haven't the balls for anything else.

Should have gone for a .5% last time IMHO. Please don't forget that the ONS stats had already priced in a rise to 5.75%.

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they'll hold-

they've increased rates for a while now- and will hold em to avoid potential whispering :(

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Rise by .25 . Last month was a slap on the wrist for borrowers but consumers are not responding and still borrowing.

This month will be a slap in the face wake up call of .25%

The press is already preparing people by publishing bearish news on house prices. People that dont visit HPC.co.uk (and other similar sites) are unaware that crash 2 is starting. I think the BOE is going to change that by raising to 5.75. I realy dont think they have any other option if they still want to please Gordon Brown and keep inflation down.

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I've got the usual fiver on a +.25%

Gordon is home free now. He'll be PM unless he walks under a bus, so it will be interesting to see if the MPC goes all "gloves off" on us. The rules of the game may have changed.

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Based on previous performance, I think they will hold. I don't think they would raise in consecutive months. More likely that they will "wait to see" what effect the previous raises have had on inflation and then raise again in August. I hope I'm wrong.

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I think we will have another .25 raise,

this theory is based on a mixture of blind hope and optimism that they will do their job

I expect nothing other than a hold

(a 0.5% rise would be entertaining for the doom and gloom headlines but will happen only in my dreams)

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Maybe with the iminent change of chancellor they'll put in a 0.25% rise now while we're in limbo and Blair's off on his farewell tour.

A new chancellor might subsequently try to influence their decision.

Having said that my money's on a hold.

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a hold - I just can't see them raising it again 1 month later. :ph34r:

they'll wait and see what effect the previous rises will have before executing more rises, especially with the HIPS problem etc

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june, july and august all holds

september AND possibly october or november .25% hikes

I agree. Probably have to fiddle the CPI a bit more in the meantime though. I think the real inflation shocks will present themselves in the autumn followed by the BoE panicking.

If the MPC were firefighters they would try to extinguish a fire in the kitchen with cups of water and only admit there was a problem when the whole house went up in flames!

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Surely they should be thinking about inflation, not house prices. Their job is mainly to deal with inflation. OK they're not supposed to kill the economy either. I'm slightly optimistic they'll have a spine and put it up 25 basis points. Given that the inflation figure went back up to 2.9 and that other rate rise seemed to do stuff all.

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Guest AuntJess
Hold. They will cross their fingers and hope that inflation will go away again.

I think they will hold too. <_<

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Maybe with the iminent change of chancellor they'll put in a 0.25% rise now while we're in limbo and Blair's off on his farewell tour.

A new chancellor might subsequently try to influence their decision.

Having said that my money's on a hold.

Which new chancellor? The Brown-Balls teams will still be calling the shots at the Treasury whoever the paper chancellor is

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Gordon is where he wants to be and this is the time to bury bad news (pay attention to what has been announced over the past three weeks, Trident, Nuclear power....).

Personally I reckon its going to be a rise of 0.25% but 0.5% to actually shock people into submission is not out of the realms of fantasy.

It really depends on whose theory is true. If the BoE are independent then its no change this month and a rise in July or August. If Gordon is calling the shots he will want the bad news out of the way now to allow cuts to come earlier rather than later.

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Gordon is where he wants to be and this is the time to bury bad news (pay attention to what has been announced over the past three weeks, Trident, Nuclear power....).

Personally I reckon its going to be a rise of 0.25% but 0.5% to actually shock people into submission is not out of the realms of fantasy.

It really depends on whose theory is true. If the BoE are independent then its no change this month and a rise in July or August. If Gordon is calling the shots he will want the bad news out of the way now to allow cuts to come earlier rather than later.

:rolleyes:

Stop the Brown conspiracy's people. Sentence and Besley, remember? And CPI can only be fiddled in January. But he's the funny thing, credit card fines and fuel prices were given extra weighting in anticipation of falls, both have risen (Oil at least).

Anyway, predictions are useless unless we know the CPI number. So I'll base it on that.

2.9 or below - Hold

3.0-3.3 - 0.25% Rise

3.4+ - 0.5% Rise

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2.9 or below - Hold

3.0-3.3 - 0.25% Rise

3.4+ - 0.5% Rise

That's the sort of logic which should inform their decision - as others have pointed out, the only criterion they're supposed to be interested in is inflation. The interesting thing will be if it doesn't, i.e. the CPI is well into the threes and they still hold. In that scenario it would be very clear that political strings are being pulled to prop up HPs and/or sterling.

Edited by The Ayatollah Bugheri

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