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What The Nationwide Data Really Means

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Ok. Heres the current year on year trend using the nationwide data. No hocus pocus seasonal adjustment – just the data.

We can clearly see that YOY fell to BELOW 0% (actually it was MINUS 0.07%) in Jun 2005. The YOY figure has risen from that point to a current 6.7%.

Key points in the 1st graph

1. HPI (YOY) fell consistently from 22% @ Mid-2002 to 0% @ Mid-2005.

2. The current slope from jun 2005 onwards shows a steady rate of increase. This can be translated into “monthly HPI increasing massively”. Hence the barrage of these headlines from the VI’s at the moment, focussing attention on the monthly increase whilst shying away from the more modest YOY figures.

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