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Willy Weasel

Land Registry Prices Up 0.6% Last Month

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Are these the re-worked figures the BBC let out of the bag a week or so ago?

Flats up the most which I suppose reflects all the news about BTLers selling up?

Hammersmith & Fulham up 2.7% in a month. :(

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Are these the re-worked figures the BBC let out of the bag a week or so ago?

Flats up the most which I suppose reflects all the news about BTLers selling up?

Yep,these figures look more sensible and less erratic.

Nottingham is the laggard, true to form,-0.2% M and 1.0% YOY.

Edited by crashmonitor

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It may seem surprising that the stat shows prices still rising in most areas but this is a lagging indicator and is representative of transactions 3-6 months ago. Recent trends will not therefore show up.

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Are these the re-worked figures the BBC let out of the bag a week or so ago?

Flats up the most which I suppose reflects all the news about BTLers selling up?

I don't think so, RB. The BBC had the raw data. This is the mix adjusted Index which still records the equal lowest rise in monthly prices since this Index started. It looks like London is the only area still performing strongly with the West Midlands showing no growth and prices falling in the North East, South West, North West and Yorkshire & The Humber.

These are the best figures yet from the LR Index and the figures relate to sales agreed three or four months ago which still makes Q1 2007 look spot on IMO

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Guest d23
Flats up the most which I suppose reflects all the news about BTLers selling up?

??

not quite sure I follow you; BTL'ers selling up and increasing supply has led to them having the biggest increase?

overall this looks promising, especially for those up north

where I live is still going mental but I've long passed the days where I let it wind me up

RB, I notice Warwickshire HPI has increased yet again, up to 0.9 and has been steadily increasing all year from 0.3% in Jan

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The sheeple will be confused now:

http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2007/May/30e.asp

LR shows my area up 4.5% YoY which I suppose tallies with the above article. In the US the data is being skewed by fewer, more expensive, properties being sold causing the medians to rise. The same phenomena must be happening here as all of the news is showing rising supply, falling mortgage approvals (down 14% April), glut of BTL etc.

I wonder how the BBC will spin this? They had no comment on the earlier LR figures which were far more alarming that just widespread slowing.

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Guest X-QUORK

I thought it interesting that the sub £200k property sale volumes are dropping dramatically YoY, up to 20% less sold in 2007 compared to 2006. Some of this drop can be explained by less properties being valued in this range, but considering that the vast majority of housing stock is in this bracket, it must surely reflect FTBers being priced out?

Looks like the bottom of the pyramid has started to crumble.

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??

not quite sure I follow you; BTL'ers selling up and increasing supply has led to them having the biggest increase?

overall this looks promising, especially for those up north

where I live is still going mental but I've long passed the days where I let it wind me up

RB, I notice Warwickshire HPI has increased yet again, up to 0.9 and has been steadily increasing all year from 0.3% in Jan

I am in greater Brum and they say its up 4.5 YoY which sounds off. That is too high for the reality of what is happening around here. The earlier LR data (removed from the BBC) said the area was showing a 4% decline.

If it is as high as 4.5% that means it is only just behind RPI and only 1% or so behind a savings account. Not good but headed in the right direction.

I am not so sure this is good "Neither" food as the rate of HPI is clearly de-accelerating faster. It will be interesting to see what Nationwide have to say after their forecast of YoY 5% by the end of this year.

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RB, I notice Warwickshire HPI has increased yet again, up to 0.9 and has been steadily increasing all year from 0.3% in Jan

Warwickshire is only up 5.4% in the last year. Bearing in mind this is effectively the rate for 2006 (as the index lags by 3 or 4 months) then this IMHO shows that last year was unexciting at best and this year's figure (which will start to be reflected in the index from next month) will IMO show QoQ falls for sales agreed in Q1 2007

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The sheeple will be confused now:

http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2007/May/30e.asp

LR shows my area up 4.5% YoY which I suppose tallies with the above article. In the US the data is being skewed by fewer, more expensive, properties being sold causing the medians to rise. The same phenomena must be happening here as all of the news is showing rising supply, falling mortgage approvals (down 14% April), glut of BTL etc.

I wonder how the BBC will spin this? They had no comment on the earlier LR figures which were far more alarming that just widespread slowing.

Commonsense tells me you are right,when I see like for like property down 10% on last year and the same properties not even achieving their 2004 land registry amounts when sold it is obvious some skewing is going on.

There again when you are following the Nottingham market you are watching the worst.

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Guest d23
I am in greater Brum and they say its up 4.5 YoY which sounds off. That is too high for the reality of what is happening around here. The earlier LR data (removed from the BBC) said the area was showing a 4% decline.

If it is as high as 4.5% that means it is only just behind RPI and only 1% or so behind a savings account. Not good but headed in the right direction.

I am not so sure this is good "Neither" food as the rate of HPI is clearly de-accelerating faster. It will be interesting to see what Nationwide have to say after their forecast of YoY 5% by the end of this year.

Sorry RB, i thought because you have repeatedly said you lived in Warwickshire, in an upscale Warwickshire Village, renting a 450K property for 750pcm (£1250 less per month than an IO mortgage on the same property):rolleyes:

As it is we are renting a large detached house in an upscale Warwickshire village for about half the cost of a mortgage on a similar home.
My interest is in Warwickshire where I live and houses went up here 3.6% (half the rate of real inflation) last year if the LR is to be believed

trend is not looking good for your area RB, up from 3.6% to 5.4% (unless you've now moved to Birmingham)

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Sorry RB, i thought because you have repeatedly said you lived in Warwickshire, in an upscale Warwickshire Village, renting a 450K property for 750pcm (£1250 less per month than an IO mortgage on the same property):rolleyes:

trend is not looking good for your area RB, up from 3.6% to 5.4% (unless you've now moved to Birmingham)

Annual change for Solihull Metropolitan district is only 2.9%

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The graph on page 4 clearly shows HPI accelerating.

For both London and England and Wales.

The London graph is almost vertical.

The Index provides figures for 10 areas of the country. In five of them prices either showed no increase or fell.

This Index IMHO will show that Q1 2007 was the start of the crash.

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Sorry RB, i thought because you have repeatedly said you lived in Warwickshire, in an upscale Warwickshire Village, renting a 450K property for 750pcm (£1250 less per month than an IO mortgage on the same property):rolleyes:

trend is not looking good for your area RB, up from 3.6% to 5.4% (unless you've now moved to Birmingham)

Yes that is right. We are about 15 miles from central Brum--you could say the "Greater Metropolitan area." Many small villages dot the pleasant South Warwickshire countryside providing a short commute into the heart of Britain's leading industrial city. You can live in the quiet of the countryside and yet be no more than a 30 minute drive from your office.

We are also about 20 miles from what was once the heart of UK motor manufacturing and the loss of jobs and demoralisation has been widespread. Of course Neithers tend to overlook the terrible social consequences of continuing HPI and love to post articles that run contrary to the bearish trends as if their optimism will somehow derail the inevitable crash.

I am not sure what your interest is in seeing a crash avoided, or, at least suggesting that the market is still rising but I suspect it may be because you are either a BTLer or an overgeared OO who is starting to fret over the slowing HPI that will continue until it reaches negative YoY?

BTW I pay zero rent as my house is tied to my job. My previous place was 750 pcm and the house was probably worth around 350k. "Was" being very much the operative word. The previous tenant in the house I am now occupying was paying around 1000 pcm and my guess is that the house was worth over 450k at the top. 4-5 bedrooms, 1/4acre garden, views of countryside all round, walking distance to village pub, 15 miles from central Brum. I am afraid BTL is a disaster around here and I suspect that is why I see so many "no chain" properties up for sale with price reduced signs beginning to multiply.

Edited by Realistbear

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The Index provides figures for 10 areas of the country. In five of them prices either showed no increase or fell.

This Index IMHO will show that Q1 2007 was the start of the crash.

Now that I can agree with as it does not smack of neitherism. I think GOM called if for the 1st Q. I am still sticking with the 2nd Q for the first falls to emerge.

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The Index provides figures for 10 areas of the country. In five of them prices either showed no increase or fell.

This Index IMHO will show that Q1 2007 was the start of the crash.

May I draw your attention to our fine capital, where homeowners continue to float upwards on a soft cushion of equity :)

(Oh, one per cent MoM for my patch of London, and 10 per cent YoY. Clearly the crash is upon us.)

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Of course Neithers tend to overlook the terrible social consequences of continuing HPI and love to post articles that run contrary to the bearish trends as if their optimism will somehow derail the inevitable crash.

Of course bears tend to overlook the terrible social consequences of a falling market and negative equity and love to post articles that run contrary to the published data showing continued HPI as if their pesimism will somehow derail the ongoing HPI.

Funny how some people think that they know what others peoples views are.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
May I draw your attention to our fine capital, where homeowners continue to float upwards on a soft cushion of equity :)

(Oh, one per cent MoM for my patch of London, and 10 per cent YoY. Clearly the crash is upon us.)

trust me Europa, when the next couple of sets of data come out, it will be all over for Londinium town. City bonuses skewing the stats imo, no big bonuses the next time round, just P45's. :ph34r:

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The April data shows the current rate of increase for London house prices is over six per cent per annum greater than that of England and Wales as a whole.
Annual change 9.1%

QED, England and Wales excluding London is less than 3.1%, or less than inflation.

So apart from London, the real terms crash has already started.

Take out the rises for the South-East and East, which are being held up by the London madness. Take out Wales which is cleary turning, if you look at the detailed data Welsh districts are leading the fall.

And the whole of England North and East of Oxford is crashing.

Wales will join in the crash in the next couple of months.

Also note that Barking is negative monthly and Newham, despite the Olymics and Docklands, managed only a monthly rise of 0.1%. These two boroughs managed annual rises of just 4.2% & 4.5%, barely above inflation. Why? Because of over supply of flats, just like 1989.

Have a look at the previous monthly maps and watch the yellow lepourous spread moving out from Nottingham to cover the centre of the country. Outposts already formed in Wales, the North and London itself.

And these figures are from the madness at the beginning of this Spring, they are only going to get worse.

MoM -ve this year definite.

YoY -ve this year very likely, YoY less than inflation this year definite.

2007 Q1.

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Guest d23
I am not sure what your interest is in seeing a crash avoided, or, at least suggesting that the market is still rising but I suspect it may be because you are either a BTLer or an overgeared OO who is starting to fret over the slowing HPI that will continue until it reaches negative YoY?

BTW I pay zero rent as my house is tied to my job. My previous place was 750 pcm and the house was probably worth around 350k. "Was" being very much the operative word.

Apologies, you said it was 450K so I mistakenly assumed it was 450K.

As well you know I do not own any property and have never done so. If you're going to call me a liar at least stand up and have the nuts to do so in a less oblique way.

I have no interest in seeing a crash avoided, I just don't let my wishes get in the way of the reality of my situation. You forecast an avian flu epidemic at some point soon and forthcoming depression of 'biblical proportions'; what is your interest in seeing that happen?

I'm glad you're in such a rosy position (rent free etc) I only wish I had the same luxury, certainly sounds better than when you first joined and stated that you were "too poor to buy over here in the UK"

I want a crash as much as you do and foresee a correction coming next year so we're not that far apart, but I'm trying to be realistic.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Apologies, you said it was 450K so I mistakenly assumed it was 450K.

rb vs d23 snip

I want a crash as much as you do and foresee a correction coming next year so we're not that far apart, but I'm trying to be realistic.

you still haven't changed that tag to "bear" yet d23. ;)

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