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Realistbear

66% Of U K Postcodes Show Zero Growth Or Falls- Independent

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http://money.independent.co.uk/property/ho...icle2588995.ece

28 May 2007 15:05

Housing market boom nears its end as interest rate rises hit home
By Jane Padgham and David Prosser
Published: 28 May 2007
Britain's housing market boom is finally on the verge of coming to an end, new figures reveal today.
House prices in two-thirds of postcodes in England and Wales registered no increase at all during May or even fell,
according to Hometrack, the housing market analyst.
The figures provide fresh evidence that a double whammy of higher interest rates, following four Bank of England base rate rises in the past 10 months, and rising supply is at last taking its toll on the housing market.
Supply, on the other hand has continued to increase, with a 6 per cent rise in the number of properties coming on to the market.
Hometrack said the growth in supply was due to vendors, primarily in London and the South-east, looking to cash in on strong market conditions.
There was also a rush to avoid the 1 June introduction of Home Information Packs - which have now been delayed and watered down.
"This increase comes at a time when there are signs of wavering demand in the face of higher interest rates.
And it raises the question as to just how saleable these properties will prove to be,"
Mr Donnell said.
:o

With Great Crash 2 off to a fine and broad-based start it would seem no one is safe. The speed at which GC2 is moving is due to the rush to sell we have all been seeing as evidenced by Hometrack and findaproperty.com showing huge rises in recent weeks. Gone is the VI argument that a shortage of property is keeping prices afloat.

Fun days ahead this summer folks. I doubt Gordon will be able to book a long enough world tour to remain out of sight while this baby unwinds!

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The media side is great at the moment, but it's worth bearing in mind that there is not yet any hard evidence of a crash.

I feel like we have been in similar places before, but something turns up to confound us yet again. Admittedly we haven't had the sheer volume, breadth and length of bearish news before, but there are no guarantees.

I wait with bated breath, but I reserved a large portion of my pride in case the unthinkable happens again. This is part of my patented Emotional Portfolio Theory which is an exciting new development in the field of cognitive therapy allowing one to survive brutal emotional onslaughts and damaging life events through the careful allocation of the self to emotional assets.

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The media side is great at the moment, but it's worth bearing in mind that there is not yet any hard evidence of a crash.

there never is until the smart money has reached the exit.

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I feel like we have been in similar places before, but something turns up to confound us yet again. Admittedly we haven't had the sheer volume, breadth and length of bearish news before, but there are no guarantees.

I wait with bated breath, but I reserved a large portion of my pride in case the unthinkable happens again. This is part of my patented Emotional Portfolio Theory which is an exciting new development in the field of cognitive therapy allowing one to survive brutal emotional onslaughts and damaging life events through the careful allocation of the self to emotional assets.

Behavioral psychology is nothing new mate,the funniest part of this is all those grads with degrees in psychology haven't got a clue what we're on about,and are jumping into BTL!

so much for the degree!!...they obviously know fack all.

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I wait with bated breath, but I reserved a large portion of my pride in case the unthinkable happens again. This is part of my patented Emotional Portfolio Theory which is an exciting new development in the field of cognitive therapy allowing one to survive brutal emotional onslaughts and damaging life events through the careful allocation of the self to emotional assets.

Interesting theory. Can help you balancing a bipolar tendence in your personality.

Makes you miss out on the peaks, but spares you insanity.

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I agree, the bearish news recently is great. I would also hesitate in calling any sort of crash until presented with some hard evidence. It seems difficult to believe that the market can plough on with such negative sentiment in the mainstream press, but never underestimate people's stupidity.

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Interesting theory. Can help you balancing a bipolar tendence in your personality.

Makes you miss out on the peaks, but spares you insanity.

Are you referring to me specifically? :ph34r:

I know I'm a bit odd, but I wouldn't say I was mentally ill. Although being too in touch with reality can considered a form of mental illness, as a well balanced person keeps a balance (i.e. they shield themselves from reality).

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Are you referring to me specifically? :ph34r:

No.

I know I'm a bit odd, but I wouldn't say I was mentally ill. Although being too in touch with reality can considered a form of mental illness, as a well balanced person keeps a balance (i.e. they shield themselves from reality).

Everyone can need some shielding every now and then.

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Behavioral psychology is nothing new mate,the funniest part of this is all those grads with degrees in psychology haven't got a clue what we're on about,and are jumping into BTL!

so much for the degree!!...they obviously know fack all.

It's you that obviously knows sweet FA. I studied Psychology at University, but don't own any BTLs.

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As I've said all along, there is little doubt that some sort of correction is inevitable. It's the way markets work, full stop.

The big three questions yet to be answered are: When will it happen. How Long will it go on for, and How Severe, or otherwise, will the crash/correction be?

At the moment there is a lot of excitement here because last month house prices rose more slowly than they have done for some time. Fair enough, I can understand that giving encouragement to those who feelpriced out. I'd feel the same. But let's face it, this site has been calling the crash for what seems like a very long time now. (Sorry, I'm not sure how long the site's been going, though I've read it, and been a member on and off for over 2 years.)

Maybe this is the start of the change in sentiment that people rightly say is required to bring about a correction, but the beginnings of that process of 'sentiment change' is really not the same as the start of a crash, and it's certainly not the crash itself.

For the record, I still think of myself as a bull because I can see HPI limping along for a while yet, albeit at a much reduced level. That in itself is a kind of correction. I don't subscribe to the view that house prices will actually fall by 30 or 40% across the board as some here claim -- though of course you'll get isolated instances of that sort of thing. You can tell me I'm wrong, and of course that's your prerogative, but just at the moment, we do not have a crash, though we certainly have what appears to be the start of a slow down. But the start of a slow down is really not the same thing as a crash, however badly you want it to be.

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But buying into the market can relax people, you've made the decision and are in control and can plan further ahead than a year or so.

So the people most likely to predict the crash is when a load of dedicated HPC members buy in, i've been feeling some odd twitches around cheaper or reduced property so could be close :):)

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In my opinion the last crash started in August 88 when Lawson abolished joint MIRAS relief but gave people a six month prior warning.

In the future those with good memories will look back to the HIPs fiasco as the beginning of the end. The June 1 deadline has caused more supply which always lowers prices. The cancelling of that deadline has removed the drop in supply that would have followed thus removing the posibility of an upwards correction. The 4 bed houses only nonsense will just make more houses hit the market as 3 bed 2 receptions which may have a slight negative effect on their value. Before anyone says that buyers will still know they are really 4 bed houses, the negative effect will come from the buyers suspicion at the sellers motives for avoiding the HIP. I think that when HIPs come in buyers will be saying "I know your house doesn't need one but I want you to get one anyway" and if estate agents get any hint that houses shift better with one they will be pushing them too. Added to that the agents will have a 'relationship' with the inspectors and will be pushing them for less savoury reasons as well. :angry:

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I don't subscribe to the view that house prices will actually fall by 30 or 40% across the board as some here claim -- though of course you'll get isolated instances of that sort of thing. You can tell me I'm wrong, and of course that's your prerogative, but just at the moment, we do not have a crash, though we certainly have what appears to be the start of a slow down. But the start of a slow down is really not the same thing as a crash, however badly you want it to be.

Would you have said in 2002 that by 2007 average house prices would be 50% more expensive, probably not. So bearing this in mind how can you be so certain that 40% falls are out of the question.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
There is a thin line between sanity and insanity. ;)

I agree & I manage to mask mine quite well. :ph34r:

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It seem that the press has got bored with talking the market up and has decided to start talking it down.

Maybe TV companies might catch on and Property Ladder could become Property Snake for all the BTLers who get bitten.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
It seem that the press has got bored with talking the market up and has decided to start talking it down.

Maybe TV companies might catch on and Property Ladder could become Property Snake for all the BTLers who get bitten.

we are an "all or nothing" society in the UK.

We hammer certain things to death in the media then leave it alone for months at a time.

The tide has turned in a matter of months (as predicted :rolleyes: ) & you will now see 9 out of 10 articles on crash related housing topics. Only 3 months ago it was all booming house prices & how they were set to double every month. :blink:

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we are an "all or nothing" society in the UK.

We hammer certain things to death in the media then leave it alone for months at a time.

The tide has turned in a matter of months (as predicted :rolleyes: ) & you will now see 9 out of 10 articles on crash related housing topics. Only 3 months ago it was all booming house prices & how they were set to double every month. :blink:

IMO whatever is believed to sell, is said. Best not to believe the majority of what you read, believe in what you see and experience.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/25d649ae-0c68-11dc...0b5df10621.html

In the UK, the housing market is showing clear sighs of cooling owing to rising interest rates. New mortgage approvals, due on Thursday, are expected to fall from 111,000 in March to 108,000 in April. Nationwide’s measure of house price inflation, also due on Thursday, is expected to slow from 10.8 per cent in April to 10.6 per cent in May.

Mortgage approvals forecast to fall.

Do they tend to fall in April?

Edited by Ash4781

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Do you think the BOE takes any notice of these articles (about possible HPC) and figures (house price rises, slowing) coming out? It seemed like it was possible for another rise in interest rates at the next MPC meeting. Especially as inflation has gone back up, (3.1 to 2.8 now it's 2.9) again and them banging on about inflationary pressures being on the upward side, and suggestions they nearly voted for a 50 basis points rise.

But my question is, could they decide not to put rates up again next meeting, even though they want to, because they worry it'd panic the (already worried) housing market too much?

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Would you have said in 2002 that by 2007 average house prices would be 50% more expensive, probably not. So bearing this in mind how can you be so certain that 40% falls are out of the question.

More than 50%, in most places I suspect.

But good question.

I think it's harder to predict downward movements simply because there is more resistance to decreases. In other words, people seem to try harder not to sell up at a £50K loss than they try to avoid paying £50K more than they could have bought at some point in the past. I know that some people will simply have no choice but to sell at a loss, given certain circumstances, but believe me, if you're in negative equity your instinct is not to sell up and owe the bank £50K (or whatever) which you're unlikely to be able ever to repay, but to hang on in there and wait for property prices to recover.

Yes, there is a big downside to this, namely that you're trapped into staying where you are for an indeterminate period but this is a lot better than having a massive debt to repay on an asset that you no longer even own. Having to go back into rented accommodation to pay off someone else's mortgage instead just exacerbates the problem, and makes you more determined not to do it.

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http://money.independent.co.uk/property/ho...icle2588995.ece

28 May 2007 15:05

Housing market boom nears its end as interest rate rises hit home
By Jane Padgham and David Prosser
Published: 28 May 2007
Britain's housing market boom is finally on the verge of coming to an end, new figures reveal today.
House prices in two-thirds of postcodes in England and Wales registered no increase at all during May or even fell,
according to Hometrack, the housing market analyst.
The figures provide fresh evidence that a double whammy of higher interest rates, following four Bank of England base rate rises in the past 10 months, and rising supply is at last taking its toll on the housing market.
Supply, on the other hand has continued to increase, with a 6 per cent rise in the number of properties coming on to the market.
Hometrack said the growth in supply was due to vendors, primarily in London and the South-east, looking to cash in on strong market conditions.
There was also a rush to avoid the 1 June introduction of Home Information Packs - which have now been delayed and watered down.
"This increase comes at a time when there are signs of wavering demand in the face of higher interest rates.
And it raises the question as to just how saleable these properties will prove to be,"
Mr Donnell said.
:o

With Great Crash 2 off to a fine and broad-based start it would seem no one is safe. The speed at which GC2 is moving is due to the rush to sell we have all been seeing as evidenced by Hometrack and findaproperty.com showing huge rises in recent weeks. Gone is the VI argument that a shortage of property is keeping prices afloat.

Fun days ahead this summer folks. I doubt Gordon will be able to book a long enough world tour to remain out of sight while this baby unwinds!

RB you forgot to quote the forecast of 4% HPI this year.

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The media side is great at the moment, but it's worth bearing in mind that there is not yet any hard evidence of a crash.

I feel like we have been in similar places before, but something turns up to confound us yet again. Admittedly we haven't had the sheer volume, breadth and length of bearish news before, but there are no guarantees.

I wait with bated breath, but I reserved a large portion of my pride in case the unthinkable happens again. This is part of my patented Emotional Portfolio Theory which is an exciting new development in the field of cognitive therapy allowing one to survive brutal emotional onslaughts and damaging life events through the careful allocation of the self to emotional assets.

I cant help but think its a combined media punt to slash and burn labour now its well and trully on the ropes. Housing is the one thing almost everyone understands and most people own and (rightly or not) dont want a crash. When the LR reports YOY falls i will turn Bear.

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Do you think the BOE takes any notice of these articles (about possible HPC) and figures (house price rises, slowing) coming out? It seemed like it was possible for another rise in interest rates at the next MPC meeting. Especially as inflation has gone back up, (3.1 to 2.8 now it's 2.9) again and them banging on about inflationary pressures being on the upward side, and suggestions they nearly voted for a 50 basis points rise.

But my question is, could they decide not to put rates up again next meeting, even though they want to, because they worry it'd panic the (already worried) housing market too much?

That's of course assuming they're concerned about you/me/the economy/the homeowners etc and not just a self interest group looking after their own needs first and attempting to ensnare the unwary into a debt trap to fulfill the wishes of their political and banking masters.

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